Mini Normal 1931 | Endgame

[frog]

So there is knowledge to be gained from you claiming

[TwoInAMillion]

Nothing that benefits town.

[UnaBombaH]

TwoInAMillion, you are being stubborn, and you are wrong, no matter what you say.
You have pretty much ONE CLAIM, that I'd say has no value to my theory, but I'm 99% sure you don't claim it.
Anything else you claim either confirms FL, or basically Frog+Eddie scum. Understand this, and accept this.
Even if you were to be the Doctor (for example) and you don't want to claim because you are scared of a night kill coming your way, your claim would still implicate Eddie as scum or town -> confirms FL either way -> helps town immensely.

Claim and stop stalling. Even an honest VT-claim is important to me now.

[Thor665]

I already did. My role has nothing to do with Eddie/FL. Other than that there is no reason for me to claim. Una is being an idiot(or scum trying to rolefish).

You are incorrect on multiple game theory levels with this response unless you think 2+ of the current claims are scum, and even if you think that more claims will help the rest of town to realize that info as well, which would strongly benefit town's wincon.
Also, even if you don't see your claim adding any info, it adds potential info to a different town PR, and also adds info for game balance analysis.

Claim please, and then popcorn.
I will also accept a description of how mass claiming is a bad move at this stage of the game with analysis of specifically why that is objectively something that someone who doesn't know your role can assess. Because anything else is clearly silly to even debate.

I will also note that if you don't claim there are clearly enough people to put you to L-1 to force it BUT TOWN DOESN'T HAVE THE TIME TO WASTE DOING THAT AND IT'S ANTI-TOWN TO OBLIGATE IT.

Make sense? If not please read my answer below, which also helps explain why info on the table is valuable now in general as well as in specific.

I will also point out that at the moment it is entirely possible for all the current claims to be town

Explain a scenario where all of frog/FL/Eddie are town.

I don't see much reason to hand scum fakeclaims, but, y'know, literally even something as banal as a scum jailkeeper (or town jailkeeper for that record) targeting Eddy allows for literally all their claims to be legit depending on what other claims are out there.
However, a mass claim would clarify that to a certain degree as lack of a town JK claim or any other town protective kill reducing claim would toss that theory out.
But until you can toss that theory out, claims of 'we have at least one scum in three' are utterly unvalid to make at this stage.
Which is why we should finish the mass claim - please add your voice to pressuring OneinaMillion, he is wasting town's time with a Newbie stance, and it should stop.

[Thor665]

@Frog - out of curiosity, what do you consider optimal popcorn strategy?

[Thor665]

In general, not in specific.

[Thor665]

@TwoinaMillion - frankly, based off your relative town position in most people's reads I'm even willing to accept a popcorn from you with a promise to claim last. But failure to claim is absolutely not an option on the table at this juncture.

[UnaBombaH]

@TwoinaMillion - frankly, based off your relative town position in most people's reads I'm even willing to accept a popcorn from you with a promise to claim last. But failure to claim is absolutely not an option on the table at this juncture.

I am not willing to let him claim last.
His claim is rather crucial in this specific situation, so if he refuses to claim role, to me he claims scum.
I get to explain myself if he claims, until then me explaining my reasoning only gives room for fake-claims and WIFOM.

I want TwoInAMillion to claim first, otherwise I can't move forward.

[PenguinPower]

Vote Count 4.03

Eddie Cane

(3): Flavor Leaf, wavemode, NotTheRealPaul

Flavor Leaf

(1): Eddie Cane

Not Voting

(5): Thor665, frog, UnaBombaH, Game Replacement, TwoInAMillion

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2017-08-29 09:00:00)

Mod Notes:

[UnaBombaH]

Vote Count 4.03

Eddie Cane

(3): Flavor Leaf, wavemode, NotTheRealPaul

This votecount actually makes me more confident in my hunch about the game so far.

Want to clarify to wavemode/NTRP, you really should unvote if you represent town.
FL and Eddie voting each other is fine since they have basically forced each other into a 1v1, but anyone else currently voting is not doing anything good here.

What we should do as a team, is to pressure TwoInAMillion to claim.

[Thor665]

I am not willing to let him claim last.
His claim is rather crucial in this specific situation, so if he refuses to claim role, to me he claims scum.

I see no reason to believe that, but look forward to any future explanation of that stance.

I get to explain myself if he claims, until then me explaining my reasoning only gives room for fake-claims and WIFOM.

Then...and here's a wild thought...don't explain your reasoning till after all the claims are in?

I want TwoInAMillion to claim first, otherwise I can't move forward.

Meh.
Do you actually think he's scum? Like, in more than just a random chance way?
Because failure to claim the way he's doing it *might* be scummy, but it also looks like a newb's usual reaction to mass claims also, which makes it hardly alignment telling to me at this stage.

[UnaBombaH]

Meh.
Do you actually think he's scum? Like, in more than just a random chance way?
Because failure to claim the way he's doing it *might* be scummy, but it also looks like a newb's usual reaction to mass claims also, which makes it hardly alignment telling to me at this stage.

No. But the thing is that he doesn't have to be scum to affect the scenario. In fact him being town and claiming a specific role makes everything 50/50 again.

I have a long line of dominos I'm trying to set up, and trying hard to make sure there aren't any holes in my reasoning.
If he claims (and there is a very small chance his claim even affects the outcome) and I get to look through the whole thing one more time with knowledge of his role, we don't have to argue about FL/Eddie, we should know.

[Thor665]

That's awesome, I fail to see much of an argument there for him claiming first or last, and I agree with you that he has to claim and have said as much very clearly.

[wavemode]

Eddie's claim seems suspect to me and I don't see why me unvoting does anything productive for us, to be perfectly honest with you Una

[wavemode]

Not claiming is not necessarily helping us but I don't see how sitting around here berating Twoina is going to make him change his mind...

[wavemode]

I don't see much reason to hand scum fakeclaims, but, y'know, literally even something as banal as a scum jailkeeper (or town jailkeeper for that record) targeting Eddy allows for literally all their claims to be legit depending on what other claims are out there.
However, a mass claim would clarify that to a certain degree as lack of a town JK claim or any other town protective kill reducing claim would toss that theory out.
But until you can toss that theory out, claims of 'we have at least one scum in three' are utterly unvalid to make at this stage.
Which is why we should finish the mass claim - please add your voice to pressuring OneinaMillion, he is wasting town's time with a Newbie stance, and it should stop.

Dude, the crux here is that FL is loyal and got no result on Eddie, and frog watched FL and saw that he was not roleblocked. JK targetting eddie doesn't change that situation. Rolestopper targetting eddie could have caused it, but then you have the question of, if nobody in town claims Rolestopper (I'm pretty sure if anyone was one they would say so... twoina says his role has nothing to do with this situation so I doubt he is one), then it's a mafia Rolestopper who protected him, which is still suspicious AF.

[Thor665]

So we agree that any role that can make someone untargetable would create a situation where all three can be town - which is what you challenged me to describe.
What's the boggle exactly?

Also, yes, Twoinamillion will need to claim. He can think we're wrong, and that's fine, but he'll still need to claim or we need to consider him a potential scum soft. Me being willing to have him claim last is a strong vote of support for him, but don't mistake a town read with me being daft and bad at the game.

[UnaBombaH]

Dude, the crux here is that FL is loyal and got no result on Eddie

, and frog watched FL and saw that he was not roleblocked. JK targetting eddie doesn't change that situation. Rolestopper targetting eddie could have caused it, but then you have the question of, if nobody in town claims Rolestopper (I'm pretty sure if anyone was one they would say so... twoina says his role has nothing to do with this situation so I doubt he is one), then it's a mafia Rolestopper who protected him, which is still suspicious AF.

Dude, the crux here is that FL could be lying.
Eddie or Flavor Leaf is basically 1v1 at this point.

And there shouldn't be scenario where all of them are town.
If FL speaks the truth, and he tried to check Eddie and got a no-result, it means Eddie is different alignment from Leaf.
If Eddie speaks the truth, Flavor is scum trying to get our Doc lynched.

I have ran this through my head all day, and all I need to get writing is a claim from TwoInAMillion.
All I want.

[Thor665]

There are multiple ways for them to all be town, and the best way to assess that correctly is to finish the mass claim.

[wavemode]

Alright, so let's say Twoina simply refuses to claim. What then? You guys just policy lynch him, like Mulch?

[Thor665]

I didn't policy lynch Mulch, so I don't know who you're referring to with "you guys".

I would prefer to think well of people, so I presume Twoinamillion will either put into words an actual advantage to him not claiming, or will recognize that info is more of an advantage to town at this stage than it is to scum and am willing to explain it to him in multiple ways if he seems to keep missing that concept.

In a world where he absolutely refuses to claim, as I said, we need to accept that as a scum soft, because it is pro scum play, and it will assuredly affect lynch options, and we would be dumb to not have it do so.

Do you disagree with these thoughts for any particular reason/see an advantage to this conversation (because I'm missing it).

[wavemode]

Yes, I know you weren't involved there. I was referring more to Una.

I will UNVOTE: , pending a full claim. But it just doesn't sound like one is coming, and I don't think that should change our strategy until we get a flip from Eddie once and for all. That's the only thing that will let us know for sure what's going on here.

[Eddie Cane]

wallpost coming tonight. have a bunch typed so far bur lunch is over. thor, rolestopper and doc wouldn't be in the same 13p normal anyways (as the same alignment) so its not overly relevant. i could be ascetic technically if you really want to go that far, but I'm not

[TwoInAMillion]

I have no intentions of claiming as it will help only scum. And I will not be bullied into doing so.

[Game Replacement]

Catch up later.