Mini Normal 1983: Winter Wonderland [Endgame!]

[sheepsaysmeep]

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[sheepsaysmeep]

What do you think of my case on HUM?

i think i should read it when im not in passing period

[Katyusha]

I was under the assumption that UCV rvs'd but then said we should try to get out of rvs as soon as possible which seems like a normal progression to me

though i guess that vote could have been serious - if it is UCV i'd actually like to hear what you think the scum motivation for that vote is

Why do we need solid scum motivation at this point? You sound like you're pushing against it trying to look townie.
The issue is inconsistency.
Plus we get out of RVS like he wanted.

What first made me consider scum!Hop this game was this post - specifically the second sentence.

Why is Hop shading me here? It was a weird line considering I was voting on the UCV wagon which meant that I was considering him as possible scum - obviously I'm not going to be pushing back against my own push, I would unvote if that were the case.

Since Hop seems like he's responding to my first sentence (UCV's progression seems normal) but is using context from the second sentence, the response feels like a non-sequitur and is ignoring the point being made. Obviously at this point I thought he could just be town misunderstanding me, but the consistency in how he continued to not see what I was talking about seems to me that there was some intention of pushing this point to an agenda, and backtracking yourself to be accountable to your mistakes would have hurt the push's potency. Obviously once it was clear that I wasn't getting lynched or scumread this game he backed off.

If he were just trying to sort me, I think he'd approach it in a more inquisitive manner. "You sound like you're pushing against it trying to look townie" is very different from "Why are you pushing against your own vote?". The latter, again, doesn't really make sense but it's at least clear in that case he's misunderstanding my intentions and can be cleared up easily.

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I definitely agree with HEM that the Flubber read seemed out of place and white-knighty. I would think a town!Hopkirk would approach the read considering why Flubber was being pushed in the first place:

scumreads n_m for inaccurate meta and his UCV read is weird in light of the game’s context

Maybe Hop doesn't have the meta or context to disagree with the n_m read, which is fine, but if he felt he was town then Hop would have an explanation as to why Flubber wasn't considering sheep's meta or had a reason to disagree with sheep. "The wagon is bad" is also a perfectly fine reason to disagree with the Flubber scumreads, but as I pointed out the wagon composition at that time consisted of mostly townreads of Hop's so it's hard to give credibility to that reasoning.

The meta Hop gave is also kind of lazy. There's more to Flubber's entrance than voting onto a large wagon, and plenty of people do the same when they enter games. It's a very NAI thing to attribute to meta as well. I don't know how strong Hop's meta skills are but it still doesn't seem like a read I would use to defend against a Flubber wagon when there's more to the push to dismantle.

With a confident enough read to just write "Flubber is town.", town!Hop would probably try to explain his perspective better rather than just state it as he caught up.

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I thought you'd be more interested in HEM town.

Something about this line also felt kind of manufactured to me. I don't really think it'd be surprising if he read HEM one way or the other and from Hop's posting it's clear he didn't intend to push on him as well, so townreading HEM there seems reasonable. Yet, why would Hop thinks this deserves special attention? I would think it's more likely that scum!Hop put HEM in his townreads so that he wouldn't look overly defensive and wanted to make that clear, and that I would assume that if town!Hop felt the interaction was TvT&T he wouldn't be surprised about me finding the read normal because HEM would seem clearly town to both of us.

I also question the read's genuineness considering Hop was happy to discard it once pressure came towards HEM's way. I think that, besides basically everything Bu has pushed, this is definitely one of the more opportunistic changes in reads.

I think this and the Flubber townread are both weak points in his reads that show that they're disingenuous. Hop's townread of Flubber should have further addressed the points being given better, and his HEM read seems to reflect more on the gamestate than what someone in Hopkirk's shoes would actually feel.

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I think without going in depth about the argument that was had earlier, these are the most important points that lead me to feeling confident about scum!Hop.

Essentially, we can see that he's reading the thread from a different perspective that isn't inquisitive, provided a poor defense for Flubber when he was first being wagonned, and has reads that seem unnatural.

Kat, my current understanding of your hopkirk scumread is a whiteknight of me and his egregious misunderstandings. I think both points are kinda blah.

If explaining why they're scum motivated better doesn't help clear that up or make the points better, then could you give your reasoning for listing him as your 3rd scumread?

After a short break I'm going to break down why HEM is town.

[Katyusha]

oh before i go take my short break - with Bu this feels a lot like his scumplay in the game we played together (his first game, forgot the number but it's in my wiki) where he just kind of went with the flow and had kind of townie 1v1 interactions and went with the flow of the game until his partner was inevitably ran up

he seemed pretty happy to bus, hammer people prematurely, and contradict himself a lot there so

[sheepsaysmeep]

holy shit

[sheepsaysmeep]

it's a wall ew

[sheepsaysmeep]

i mean like

@flubb

sometimes i go for a reaction and i dont get anything i think helps so i just dont analyze it
like nm's reaction was literally "im not claiming" and then he disappeared with the wind, i dont think that's a really ai response

im looking through the hem iso to try to check the rest of your points

[Sephiroth]

from what ive read, my scumreads are ucv, you, bu, hop which might change when i read what happened overnight
i havent payed a whole lot of attention to hem or serg so i might want to look at them later

Werent you just swearing up and down that this game was UCVs town meta? Did it really change that drastically based on the pop in? Is he now your top scum read?

[sheepsaysmeep]

the meta wasnt strong
he's nullscum
it wasnt a drastic change but the popin was really bad to me

[sheepsaysmeep]

like back to that hydra game he literally would just come in and say smth like that that wasnt actually productive at all
im psure he tries harder as town

[Hopkirk]

@Kat: I'm not going to respond to that directly yet since most people haven't been around to weigh in yet.
While we're waiting, can you tell me what game you looked at to decide what scum Hop or town Hop would do, because you're making a lot of very questionable assumptions about my meta right now. It sounds like a personality read to me, not a scumread.

[BuJaber]

oh before i go take my short break - with Bu this feels a lot like his scumplay in the game we played together (his first game, forgot the number but it's in my wiki) where he just kind of went with the flow and had kind of townie 1v1 interactions and went with the flow of the game until his partner was inevitably ran up

he seemed pretty happy to bus, hammer people prematurely, and contradict himself a lot there so

Except I'm not playing the same way. I had a clear strategy that game because I was scum. I'm not here which means more self-doubt.

I can't fathom the case against me. It just seems like y'all don't like my playstyle. Or you set the bar too high on townie self-confidence. Doubt is good. Otherwise people get to the late game and literally hand over the game because of sticking to early assumptions. See Newbie 1835.

[sheepsaysmeep]

can you try to sell me on there being scum in flub/seph

[sheepsaysmeep]

i just dont see how youre ending up with that at all

[humaneatingmonkey]

Hopkirk, it sounds a lot like you're measuring whether or not to continue this push based on how much people agree with you.

[Flubbernugget]

Kat,

Your case doesn't go into much detail about the more recent interactions with Hopkirk and HEM. Dismissing it all as "happy to discard [the townread] once pressure came towards HEM's way" seems really confbias-y.

[Flubbernugget]

Hopkirk, it sounds a lot like you're measuring whether or not to continue this push based on how much people agree with you.

beats flat out ignoring it

[humaneatingmonkey]

you case is dumb but you're welcome to continue pushing me im not your audience

[humaneatingmonkey]

actually, i encourage you to push it

[humaneatingmonkey]

also, why does it beat that?

[Hopkirk]

Hopkirk, it sounds a lot like you're measuring whether or not to continue this push based on how much people agree with you.

Reactions affect reads.

[humaneatingmonkey]

lmao okay hopkirk

[humaneatingmonkey]

It's Flubb and Hopkirk, but Hopkirk-Buj does not make sense. So it could be sheep, as the third partner. Quote this in end game.

[northsidegal]

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[northsidegal]

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