@Jingle, I don't understand how hammering someone resolves town apathy. You resolve apathy by posting content and engaging people. Regardless, I've heard that argument before (from town) so I'll chalk it up to playstyle.
But who are these "universal townreads" you speak of? Because I've been having quite a bit of trouble solidly setting aside anyone as town.
Micro 768: Geriatric Grey Flag Nightless - Game Over
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BlackVoid
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insanity018
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insanity018 Mafia Scum insanity018
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I don't have time to do a post by post ISO. But this is what I found noteworthy when reviewing everyone's ISOs considering flips and recent events. I ran out of time to do Korts and BlackVoid (thought the latter shouldn't take too long
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Jingle
Jingle's Day 1 is full of times where he doesn't explain himself properly. For example, in 69, he Has 2 townreads, 3 strong scumreads and 2 scumleans, but doesn't want to talk about who they are. Jingle votes for RayFrost in 69 without explanation, and keeps the vote there even after finding meta that means Ari is caught scum 87, 89 I ask on several times why he is voting Ray, especially after he finds Ari to be caught scum. He doesn't explain as he is supposedly waiting to see how Ray reacts in the thread 94, 96. This doesn't happen several pages later on 127. The things he was waiting so long to analyse 141 actually don't seem necessary to have withheld the information so long for. I think Jingle could have gotten just as interesting reactions from posting the case earlier and seeing how he and other players reacted to the case.
271 feels off in the sense that Jingle claims to be have become apathetic because of players not interacting with him for days at a time - yet, Jingle did his part in stopping people from being able to interact with him at a time. It's also where he votes TheGoldenParadox, so could be also him trying to add onto the wagon, while not taking much heat or responsibility for the vote.
Conclusion: Earlier in the game, I had not liked Jingle's theatricality, but ultimately thought he was almost too brazen to be scum. Now, I'm wondering whether he was just stringing us along.
xReckoner
20 continues to feel like very genuinely probing intent.
Reck also goes from an early townread of Ari 55 to deciding he wants to hammer. 224. No reason given at all - not sure if he actually thought Ari was scum or just wanted to progress the game?
Reck has an early scumread of Jingle in Day 1 in 55. He still has a scumread of Jingle in Day 2 244, but doesn't vote or consider Jingle.
But, votes RayFrost (not realising there has been a replacement) slot at the start of Day 2 in 233. Reck previously didn't like one of RayFrost's posts in 55 but I'm not sure whether this vote is still because of that post, or subsequent RayFrost posts? 287 feels like a decent attempt to sort TheGoldenParadox after realising the replacement. 326 - I think that's a sound impression as well.
339 is really good analysis as well.
Conclusion: I still think Reck is town. Reck's early play still resonates strongly as town with me. Some explanations for some of the above would be good though?
CultofAthena/Hopkirk
I still don't like CoA. The 'I like Jingle' 18 and then backtrack 'I like Jingle but never called it towny' is really weird 29. CoA scum with Jingle? And then attacking Jingle's game theory understanding 30. The interaction is still weird in some way. 51 I don't really see CoA's accusation of RayFrost being LAMIST.
Hopkirk enters the thread - 120, 121. He votes for Ari. Ari is listed in his scumreads, but the only reason given for Ari-scum is that Ari's tone was different in posts 90-93. I don't know if that makes any sense for Ari to be top scumread, as it seems Hopkirk has explained more about his scumreads on me, Reck and Korts? This actually looks a very opportunistic vote.
132 - Hmm, Hopkirk explains more why he thought that the tone was scummy.
132 - Hopkirk also tries to defend his slot by arguing that CoA is a newbie. It's worth noting that CoA has played quite a few games on site, including another geriatric.
I also think that Hopkirk's entry seemed preoccupied with scumreads on his slot. Hopkirk's explanations in 156 181 seem somewhat reasonable.
Hopkirk's concern with the formatting thing in 177 and 181 is still weird - Is he looking to create a reason to scumread me again?
Hopkirk trying to sort TheGoldenParadox looks okay. However, I don't like the 'we can't take TGP into LYLO' 295 and repeated in 344, could be trying to set up TGP as a policy lynch, as opposed to genuinely thinking he is scum.
Conclusion: I think Hopkirk is probably scum. There is too much fluff in CoA's play and opportunistic moments in Hopkirk's. I feel like I should stuck with my CoA read on early Day 1.
Keychain
49 - Joins me on CultofAthena. It's a little bit sheepy, 84's questing of CoA seems solid though.
Has a townread on Ari in 84, doesn't seem to have a reason for it though? 131 and 168 look like good trying to work through Jingle's case on Ari. I ask Keychain what her current read of Ari is. in 180 and 198 210- she argues that Ari is town. I disagreed with her analysis at the time. Reading back, the defence seems genuine while still trying to reassess when given different information. I don't feel that it's for town cred.
243 274 In Day 2, Keychain still thinks Hopkirk is scum, but doesn't vote.
293 - Keychain votes for TheGoldenParadox for L-1, seems opportunistic since she didn't vote Hopkirk. Eh, I scrolled back up and there are some interactions with TGP at the end of Day 1 eg 198 so maybe it's not as opportunistic as I first thought and there is a progression.
In 85, Keychain deals with Jingle. It is interesting/odd that they both seem to think that they are dancing around a scumread on each other, without voting each other.
Conclusion: I think I like Keychain for now. The only thing is her post count is on the low side - trying to fly under the radar? I would also like to know why she didn't vote Hopkirk on Day 2....-
insanity018
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insanity018 Mafia Scum insanity018
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Oh, okay. I had originally interpreted that as 'after playing with spreadsheets, I think scum is Korts/Void/Key.'In post 344, Hopkirk wrote:I need to do a full reread, but right now I'm struggling to see any scumteams without Korts. Currently thinking Korts/Reckoner/BV.
That team was based on that thing. I'm leaning slightly more toward Reckoner that Key.In post 342, insanity018 wrote:I am going to do a reread and/or look at ISOs over the weekend.
This was posted before the mod posted the flip. Did you no longer see TheGoldenParadox as scum?In post 335, Hopkirk wrote:Playing around a bit with coloured spreadsheets, and I could (physically) see Korts/Void/Key.
I actually thought Ari had gotten into my blindspot.Reck wrote:#136: What the fuck, insanity just emptyvotes Ari? Ari was a townread... then she called him out for still having an RVS vote on me, says he's waffling, and BLAM we flip a townread into the strongest scumread out of nowhere. Wowee zowee. Maybe insanity was in my blindspot? It seemed like he was coasting though after I gave him an early townlean after liking 1 sentence. And I realised he'd actually done nothing else all day.
See my analysis above. You had an early townread on Ari too and ended up hammering. Did you think Ari was scum by the end of the day?...-
xRECKONERx
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man xRECKONERx
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Quick response: no, I just wanted to move the game along and had been so removed from it, I thought progress would help me.In post 353, insanity018 wrote:See my analysis above. You had an early townread on Ari too and ended up hammering. Did you think Ari was scum by the end of the day?
Heading to bed, will have more thoughts tomorrow.green shirt thursdays-
Hopkirk
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@Insanity: Korts/Void/Key is one of the scumteams I’m most considering at the moment. Reckoner/Key (/maybe Jingle) is the bit I’m most flippy about.
@Jingle: Based on townreads/flipped town/myself, Kort’s posts consistently break up long town interactions, Key’s timings support Korts, and Luca’s posting follows a consistent pattern relative to others. It’s not evidence so much as something to help me visualise the game/look for patterns.
@Reckoner: Wanted to give a vague overview of my reads when entering, but I like to interact with people to form reads. I don’t think Jingle was ever not on board with the Ari wagon considering he never tried to argue against it (which he could have if he’d wanted since several people bought his meta).
Rereading Jingle first.-
Hopkirk
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BlackVoid
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@Insanity: If TGP was in the game right now then he’d already be voting someone. Given his behaviour yesterday as town, we just wouldn’t be able to win a lylo with him in it. Clearly not going to actually do/be receptive to analysis if she can’t even answer a question in a week. His behaviour was scummy, but I’ve played with him before- which is why I was cautious about actually lynching him since he seemed like he could still just be a hard VI. In the end I thought he was plausible scum since he seemed more VI than I’d seen him before, but it was part policy that I wanted him lynched towards the end. Although I could have lynched him at pretty much any point for a week. Legitimately wanted to hear properly from him before I could fully sort him, so my scumread of him even towards the end was partially policy I suppose.
Keychain reread- (any use of she/her not referring to Key here is a mistake as I initially got Key’s gender wrong and had to find/replace. This might mistakenly confuse/change meanings in parts I missed).
Keychain has Korts as scummy early on (49). Interactions with Korts in 84 by answering Kort’s question about CoA, but doesn’t ask Kort’s anything. Reads Korts as null/wants to sort at the end of 84. I really don’t get the sense from this post that she was legitimately trying to sort Korts. Earlier scumminess she said Korts had also disappears here without any clear intent to follow up. Her interactions with Jingle between here and the next section feel a bit empty since I don’t get the impression Keychain is developing her reads during it.
Townreads Korts after reading in 131. Does not appear to have reread Luca as well and doesn’t look like she intends to so only rereading Korts here feels like it’s intentional/partner. Makes a couple of points for Korts town- general points, but scumpoints on Korts are given specifics. Pointing out specific points here gives the impression it was easier for him to find evidence for scum Korts, yet read Korts as town- which makes me think partners. Similarly in 145 Insanity questions Keychain and she can quote more things to support the scumreasons on Korts. Yet she’s still pushing CoA at this point when it sounds like she has reason to be pushing Korts. Instead, she’s not really trying to interact with Korts.
I still don’t like her Ari town stuff in 180. Saying ‘why would scum ever be this honest’ doesn’t strike me as something town says. Obviously if Ari had been scum there she’d be saying it since she’d been on L1 for a while, and would be willing to try anything not to get lynched. Despite being against it here, she said in 168 she agreed with part of the case- though this part was one of, if not the, most significant parts of the case on Ari. Further, despite ‘not being a fan of this lynch’ Key isn’t doing anything to actually oppose the lynch. Her posting at this point is entirely devoid of any attempts to push someone over than Ari/form a counterwagon. I get a strong sense here that Key is just saying she doesn’t like the Ari wagon while actually being happy it’s going through- or rather her actions in regard to it going through don’t resemble her words against it. Backing off from me I could definitely see as an excuse/not legitimate if he really townread Ari.
Next interactions with Korts is in 198, just a quick question about her read on Ari. Doesn’t seem to be interested in developing the Korts read from earlier. 210- Reading the end here as ‘if someone doesn’t hammer soon I’m flipping this read and hammering’. Don’t see much development on reads over day two. Supports the TGP lynch D2 after being off the wagon D1 is consistent with Scumchain. The specific post quoted isn’t the worst of TGP’s evasion.
I’m now thinking Korts/Keychain/BV (BV being kind of POEish)-
Hopkirk
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Hopkirk Jack of All Trades Hopkirk
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@Lord Gurgi: D1 votecount is missing Keychain’s vote completely, and Reckoner hammered D2 rather than insanity.
I agree Korts/Reckoner doesn't seem that likely- I said I moved Reckoner up to town based on this in 356 I think.In post 346, BlackVoid wrote:@Hopkirk, how exactly did you come to the conclusion that the "difficulty" of the wagon/reason it took so long implicates me? Can you also expand on your Korts/Reckoner theory? Those two are people I have as probably not scum together.
Difficulty of the wagon is because there was no real attempts at counterwagons/both seemed consensus, but they took forever to actually happen. Therefore, It seems unlikely that either lynch had all three scum on it (though D2 is possible). This is also another reason I'm suspicious of Key. His approach to both wagons seems intentionally different, and D2 was easier to the same degree it felt different.
D1: off the wagon BV/Keychain. D2 off the wagon: You and me.-
Keychain
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Keychain she/herGrounded Keychain she/her
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I'm rereading from the start. Close reading takes time for me (I think I'm more likely to pick up on connections between players if I read the game thread as a whole rather than ISOing players) but here are my notes from the first two pages. So far I think scum is most likely in Hopkirk and Jingle. Then Korts, BlackVoid, insanity, Reck. In that order.
CoA/Hopkirk
Haha I didn't realise but 29's "Well, to be pedantic for a moment I never called it towny – I said I liked it." reminds me of 26's "It's not a question of what's good or bad, but what is scummy, and superficial questioning is scummy." from Luca. Early defensiveness and again a repeat of a Luca comment on insanity's Ari townread - "Explain this Ari townread to me." in Luca's 26 -> "Why do you think Aristo is town?" in CoA's 29. In 30, "Why? What's the end goal of that?" is a rerun of a similar comment by Jingle in 28 - which she clearly read, because she then goes on to comment on it. That's a fairly shocking lack of independent thought.
"This is weak. If anything, this would be the time in the game where scum might associate themselves the closest, given the volativity of wagons and the ease of dissociating yourself from your partner in choosing which early game wagon to follow. A shift in opinion at this stage in the game is to be expected, meaning scum could easily partner up now only to shift away later – a large shift in opinion later in the game would be subject to far more scrutiny." is a good comment, though insanity's point in 36 that CoA is actually not using it for sorting is perceptive and does change how I feel about it. CoA ends the post with a question about Jingle's Luca scumread that seems to lack any interest in probing for the motivations for Jingle to make a naked statement. There's no real interest. It also seems like the sort of thing Jingle would jump on, but he didn't, which suggests partners to me.
Immediately responds to insanity's vote in 36 with self-meta.
Jingle
Quickchange early vote off Korts is weird and seems like early scum positioning.
"I don’t see two scum jumping so blatantly for such an obvious piece of bait." in 15 is a good point and I agree. Korts and Reck are very unlikely to be scum together.
28: "But intentionally holding back at this point in the game gains me nothing, as either alignment." I don't understand how he can make this comment and then be so reticent later on. Even in the same post he states a scumread on Luca without giving anything.
The next paragraph goes over my head but feels like it's wayyy overexplaining. The easy push comment seems fair though and "What possible gain does town you have from this? Is there a reaction that makes me town? Scum? Or is this just more empty fluff trying to look like you're scumhunting when you already knew exactly what I was doing and wanted to look proactive?" this line of thought is very town.
40's two paragraphs of overexplanation in response to CoA leaves me questioning how genuine this could really be.
Korts
Early posting at 11 is digging for content, but it's also one of those questions that seems to be just looking for things to poke at without much behind it. Early game, though.
Following Reck's joke 13 seems so much like scum buddying but again, could be town driving content.
The kind of... up-in-arms tone he's using in 17 feels very defensive.
27: "That whole line of questioning was to get him to explicitly commit to the scum claim."
I do like the way he's meeting Luca's push though. And 31's "Yeah nah you're kinda overthinking it. You think I'm being calculated and actually scumhunting at this point. No, I'm just stirring shit up, and you gave the apropos." just seems like the kind of statement that would come from a townie early game. Scum want to look like they're scumhunting.
32 responds to CoA's echo of Jingle's more accusatory question and ignores the first one which seems like it could point to being more likely partners with CoA than Jingle.
44's dropping of the thread with Jingle is something I associate with town. Then he uh also responds to the same question he responded to in 32. "[...] and I didn't want to just OMGUS without a coherent reason" is a red flag to me though. Self consciousness such as this is scummy.
Luca in 45 makes a very good point - the fact that Korts didn't want to voice the suspicion out of apparent self-conciousness but is totally okay with doing so after the player he's currently voting does doesn't really jibe with a town mindset to me.
Luca Blight/BlackVoid
I did not actually end up ISOing Luca Blight when I promised! My cardinal sin of choice is sloth, I apologise.
His early post in 25 outlines similar problems I had with Korts's 11 and 14, and seeking early conflict seems promising. Good follow up with a vote on Korts after outlining the scumread.
I kind of blanked out the whole Luca-answering-questions-for-other-people debate while it was happening. I see some of that in 26 when he answers for myself and CoA in response to insanity. It seems largely due to eagerness right now from my perspective.
He also picks up on the unexplained Ari townread from insanity.
First part of 33 is shallow and busywork. The answer to Korts's question "It's showing both sides of the coin. Jingle townreads him based on his flawed reasoning that you're probably not partners, but also shows the side of Reck's play he hasn't liked so far. Just because you townread someone, it doesn't mean that read has to be locked down forever and you can't make small reference points to refer back to later on. I think everyone does this to some degree." shows a better depth of thought but I don't think it's not exactly fakeable.
45's "You're the one twisting what I said into a reason why you must be scum." is the kind of fingerpointing that I expect from townies. The next point is also very strong.
insanity
22: I agree with the dislike of 15 but the rest of the post is shallow. The reads in 24 also don't seem to follow from the previous posts, though the reason for the Reck townread was provided in the same post.
35 is a good post in a lot of ways. She was questioned on multiple points and her answers are frank and transparent. She follows up the CoA scumread with a vote in 36 and there's a good point here - I said I liked the theory statement from CoA, but as stated here CoA is not actually using it to sort anyone in this game.
Reck
20 seems tentative but the questions are good and 21 shows that he's really not avoiding conflict.
... Not much Reck of interest in the first two pages!a ship in harbour is safe, but that is not what ships are built for-
Jingle
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Jingle Ring a Bell?
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Okay, so obvious things first. We're in a perpetual MYLO from now on. From the individual perspective of each individual player there are 3 scum in 6 people, which leads to a simple math outcome of 50/50 if the lynch is not on you as town of hitting scum. Which is alright, but honestly not great given the lack of real information we have. On the other hand, we have a fairly manageable number of scumteams.
Living Players:
Korts
xRECKONERx
Jingle
Hopkirk
BlackVoid
Keychain
insanity018
Spoiler: Possible Scumteams (20)
FMPOV, that's the teams that are mechanically possible. I do not see any world in which any combination of Korts/Luca, Korts/Reck, Ins/Key or Ins/Hop is scum. Those are the strikes in the previous spoiler, which leaves me with the incredibly manageable number of 5 scumteams to consider.
From this, in order for KortsScum to be a plausible choice, Hopkirk has to be scum. Thus, Korts is strictly off of my lynch choices list for today. In order for Ins to be scum, Reck has to be scum, which precludes her being a lynch today as well.
Of course, this presumes both that I am town and that I am correct in my deductions, something none of you can take for granted, thus I would appreciate if everyone would do this little thought experiment themselves (who cannot be scum together to narrow down lynch choices) and weigh in on my four proposed impossible scumpairs. I had reasoning for each earlier in my ISO, although I suppose I can rehash it if someone is confused.
Further analysis on my part will come, but it is a departure from pure math to subjective values, and I'm not getting into that this late at night.This is a Parachute.-
Hopkirk
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Hopkirk Jack of All Trades Hopkirk
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Hopkirk
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Hopkirk Jack of All Trades Hopkirk
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95 hours since this.In post 328, BlackVoid wrote:Just to motivate myself to catchup, if I've not posted in-depth thoughts and contributions by tomorrow night (~36 hours), I won't argue with the mod just straightup replacing me out.
Are you planning to catch up?-
Jingle
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Jingle Ring a Bell? Jingle
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To the first, check the giant 1v1 that dominated the early game (before my Ari push, so pages 1-3).
To the second, I didn't say it is likely, just that I don't think it's unlikely enough to completely discount. If you think I should reevaluate there, please tell me why.This is a Parachute.-
Hopkirk
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The giant 1v1 didn't really lead to anything substantive/permenant, and an early argument between scum that doesn't even lead to a major wagon isn't uncommon. I don't see what's leading to that conclusion.
Korts isn't overly agressive towards BV, and he was willing to vote TGP before BV caught up, so he clearly didn't have the BV slot as hard scum.In post 252, Korts wrote:TGP, what was the basis for your Hopkirk suspicion yesterday? Where do you stand on him today? Has Ari's townflip changed your mind about Hopkirk?
How is your catchup going, BlackVoid? I am interested to see this slot get back in the game.In post 221, BlackVoid wrote:Hi. I'll be catching up over the next few days. As a heads up, I'm usually online in the mornings and after midnight.-
Hopkirk
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Hopkirk Jack of All Trades Hopkirk
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Key/Hopkirk is in 3 of your 5 possible scumteams which makes it sound like you think it's likely.In post 364, Jingle wrote:To the first, check the giant 1v1 that dominated the early game (before my Ari push, so pages 1-3).
To the second, I didn't say it is likely, just that I don't think it's unlikely enough to completely discount. If you think I should reevaluate there, please tell me why.
I don't see how my trajectory today makes sense for Key/Hop/Korts given they're my two top scumreads.
Specifically on Key's, she's also been light on my slot all game. She was on me at the end of D1 while avoiding the Ari wagon after being on me earlier. She comes back and makes weird attacks on me in 243/274 that make it look like he's planning to vote me, then she settles for TGP instead with weak justification. She then came into today and it looks like she's intenting to continue her attack on my slot. She's been after my slot all game, except when going for the easy lynch. Her read on me doesn't progress naturally, it's been a consistent scumread without real basis. I don't see her voting that way on a partner.-
Hopkirk
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Hopkirk Jack of All Trades Hopkirk
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Korts/Keychain from Kort’s iso.
Korts mentions Keychain a couple of times early game, but not substantively. Doesn’t really follow up on anything. Interactions are not with Keychain, they’re just about Keychain without trying to directly engage. Differs quite a lot to other interactions he has.
209 is Korts responding to Keychain’s request he outline his scumcase on Ari. Keychain does not follow up once Korts outlines the case. Neither seem to care. The interaction there seems fake. Seems like Key pushing for the Ari wagon by getting a partner to justify it since he can’t. Aligns with Keychain not making any effort to push against the Ari wagon despite allegedly townreading Ari.
277 is the next and last time Korts mentions Key. They’re working together on the TGP lynch this time.
At no point in the game does Korts really express a read on Keychain. He doesn’t try to interact with him or read him, and doesn’t seem to care. Given his multiple comments on even BV/TGP, it seems unlikely he’d be happy not to have any thoughts on or interactions with Keychain.-
insanity018
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insanity018
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insanity018
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insanity018 Mafia Scum insanity018
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Hmm, okay, fair enough.In post 358, Hopkirk wrote:@Insanity: If TGP was in the game right now then he’d already be voting someone. Given his behaviour yesterday as town, we just wouldn’t be able to win a lylo with him in it. Clearly not going to actually do/be receptive to analysis if she can’t even answer a question in a week. His behaviour was scummy, but I’ve played with him before- which is why I was cautious about actually lynching him since he seemed like he could still just be a hard VI. In the end I thought he was plausible scum since he seemed more VI than I’d seen him before, but it was part policy that I wanted him lynched towards the end. Although I could have lynched him at pretty much any point for a week. Legitimately wanted to hear properly from him before I could fully sort him, so my scumread of him even towards the end was partially policy I suppose.
I like this observation. I didn't even notice the similarities the first time around and obviously I didn't see it in ISO just then. This makes her fluffy questioning look much worse.In post 360, Keychain wrote:CoA/Hopkirk
Haha I didn't realise but 29's "Well, to be pedantic for a moment I never called it towny – I said I liked it." reminds me of 26's "It's not a question of what's good or bad, but what is scummy, and superficial questioning is scummy." from Luca. Early defensiveness and again a repeat of a Luca comment on insanity's Ari townread - "Explain this Ari townread to me." in Luca's 26 -> "Why do you think Aristo is town?" in CoA's 29. In 30, "Why? What's the end goal of that?" is a rerun of a similar comment by Jingle in 28 - which she clearly read, because she then goes on to comment on it. That's a fairly shocking lack of independent thought.
I am wondering though - why didn't you vote Hopkirk in Day 2?
The fact that it only lasted 3 pages is a major reason why I don't want to rule out Korts and Luca/BV as possible scumbuddies. It only lasted a short time and then Luca went V/LA. I think it's plausible that they could be early-game distancing. The actual substance of their fight seems really surface level. For Luca it's 'Korts has superficial questioning.' For Korts it's 'Luca is undermining my questions'. And then, for Luca, 'I'm undermining them because they are superficial.' They also don't seem to try to create traction for wagons on each other. The only 'case' made is Korts in 59. But the post seems to just describe things that Luca has done/said without really arguing why they make Luca scum.In post 364, Jingle wrote:To the first, check the giant 1v1 that dominated the early game (before my Ari push, so pages 1-3).
...-
Korts
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Korts
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Hopkirk
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Hopkirk Jack of All Trades Hopkirk
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Jingle
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Jingle Ring a Bell? Jingle
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- Joined: July 17, 2013
- Location: Texas
First, you seem to be completely misunderstanding the point of this. This tool isn't to decide who is the best lynch, but to narrow down the number of people I have to weigh against each other. Note that I do not have a townread on Korts. I have a PoE read that says he cannot be scum unless you are also scum. Note also, that the strategy is NOT to lynch the person with the most possible scumteams. In fact, I would wager that for all of you that person is me, considering the two people who I am clearly not scum with have flipped town. It is a strategy that helps me to prioritize people to read AND a method by which I can examine thought processes that would not come up normally in a mafia game, giving a deeper insight into what you're actually thinking than I believe I could get otherwise.In post 366, Hopkirk wrote:
Key/Hopkirk is in 3 of your 5 possible scumteams which makes it sound like you think it's likely.In post 364, Jingle wrote:To the first, check the giant 1v1 that dominated the early game (before my Ari push, so pages 1-3).
To the second, I didn't say it is likely, just that I don't think it's unlikely enough to completely discount. If you think I should reevaluate there, please tell me why.
I don't see how my trajectory today makes sense for Key/Hop/Korts given they're my two top scumreads.
Specifically on Key's, she's also been light on my slot all game. She was on me at the end of D1 while avoiding the Ari wagon after being on me earlier. She comes back and makes weird attacks on me in 243/274 that make it look like he's planning to vote me, then she settles for TGP instead with weak justification. She then came into today and it looks like she's intenting to continue her attack on my slot. She's been after my slot all game, except when going for the easy lynch. Her read on me doesn't progress naturally, it's been a consistent scumread without real basis. I don't see her voting that way on a partner.
As far as your paragraph about Key, that is pretty much exactly why I don't discount you as a scumteam. I can expound on this if necessary, but that is pretty much exactly the description of what distancing looks like.
I'll pull the posts that make it unlikely to my mind and put them in a spoiler.In post 369, insanity018 wrote:
The fact that it only lasted 3 pages is a major reason why I don't want to rule out Korts and Luca/BV as possible scumbuddies. It only lasted a short time and then Luca went V/LA. I think it's plausible that they could be early-game distancing. The actual substance of their fight seems really surface level. For Luca it's 'Korts has superficial questioning.' For Korts it's 'Luca is undermining my questions'. And then, for Luca, 'I'm undermining them because they are superficial.' They also don't seem to try to create traction for wagons on each other. The only 'case' made is Korts in 59. But the post seems to just describe things that Luca has done/said without really arguing why they make Luca scum.In post 364, Jingle wrote:To the first, check the giant 1v1 that dominated the early game (before my Ari push, so pages 1-3).
Spoiler:
Basically, the push from Korts doesn't look like it's designed to go no where. He brings up legitimate points, unprompted, and follows up on them when he could easily maintain his pressure on me (if you'll recall, I wasn't doing much at that stage of the game.) He's not tunneled, but he does follow up, unprompted for the most part. It also has a lot less dramaticism than is usually the case. Equally, Luca's response (which boiled down to "No, you're scummy.") was not the response I would expect from a scumbuddy. Discrediting the partner's push as dumb and calling their reasoning into question isn't how you want to respond to a distancing push, because it just makes the push look like distancing.
Also, note that Kort's jump to Ari took days and came with reasoning independent from my case, implying either significant thought on the matter or him waiting to see if the push had legs. Neither of which would be necessary if he was just looking for a wagon to jump from a distancing push with.This is a Parachute.-
Lord Gurgi
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Lord Gurgi
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xRECKONERx
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xRECKONERx GD is my Best Man xRECKONERx
- GD is my Best Man
- GD is my Best Man
- Posts: 26087
- Joined: March 15, 2009
Why would I?In post 371, Hopkirk wrote:BV needs a prod again.
@Anyone who disagreed with my assessment of CoA due to him having played a couple of games before. Why didn't you look at those games?
Preference today is strongly for Key.green shirt thursdays
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