Open 708: Pick Your Poison - Game Over

[Klick]

Thanks for those, I was about to go back and look

[Thor665]

VC 1.5 kind of makes me want to clear Beef.
He and Tex were also definitely scraping most of that Day phase (which overall looks good, though makes me wonder why he wasn't there when we bagged texscum.

HeWhoSwims

(7):

Transcend, Thor665, RadiantCowbells

, mozamis,

Flubbernugget

, Klick,

texcat

texcat

(2):

Moneybags

, Beefster

Errantparabola

(1): Maxous

Beefster

(1): CultOfAthena

Not Voting

(2): Errantparabola,

HeWhoSwims

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

I'm not sure I buy a scum Klick in that setup, could buy a scum Moz though.
Beef being scum and sitting on tex makes decent sense.

[Klick]

good vote, can we finally do this?
obv i'll go back to tex if need be.
VOTE: hewhoswims

What is scum-moz's motivation here? The tex wagon is more dominant at this point in time. moz-scum has no motivation for a weak flip from one partner to another.

[Thor665]

Tex got off Beef to vote HWS - continued bussing or abandoning a mislynch?
Klick got off Tex to vote HWS - so either that was very aggressive bussing or, like I said, he's probably town.

Beefster is the one missing name from the Day 1 Tex push who didn't come and help the Day 2 tex push.

@Beef - why weren't you on Tex Day 2?

Looking at the Day 1 VCA I tend to say Beef/Moz/Max.

So my overall read remains probably flipping Max is a good idea.

VOTE: Maxous

Might have to pull back my town read from Beef, but I want to hear his answer to my question (and probably four follow up questions) before I offer a clear thought there.

[Thor665]

good vote, can we finally do this?
obv i'll go back to tex if need be.
VOTE: hewhoswims

What is scum-moz's motivation here? The tex wagon is more dominant at this point in time. moz-scum has no motivation for a weak flip from one partner to another.

His motivation would be to have town cred while also weakening the wagon on his more functional partner.

But, yes, I agree, he is playing very aggressive bussing if he's scum.
Basically bussing to the point of hurting his wincon.

WHat's your take on Max and Beef?

[Klick]

I've had a low-key gut townread on Maxous for a while and was going through the double-ISO of tex and HWS to try and find some connection tells to support that read. The problem is, it makes way too much sense. You have HWS with a weak town lean on Maxous early on that shifts to a null read without explanation when tex becomes a scumlean. HWS gives support for the Maxous townlean but is wishy-washy and not willing to commit. Then you have tex listing Maxous as her secondary scumread over Flubber early on, and a bunch of empty posts between the two of them attempting to feign interaction. D2 tex negatively tones her posts towards Maxous without ever daring to step into pushing territory. (notably, tex lists Maxous, COA and EP as the votes off the HWS wagon other than Beef, and says she'd support a COA vote the most - town points for COA, not great for Maxous.) I'm liking Maxous-scum a lot based on association. I'm not sure based on his own play, though.

Beefster's a hard townread, and that's reinforced by texcat's play yesterday. She really wanted her Beefster case to go through. It didn't look like bussing at all.

[Beefster]

Tex got off Beef to vote HWS - continued bussing or abandoning a mislynch?
Klick got off Tex to vote HWS - so either that was very aggressive bussing or, like I said, he's probably town.

Beefster is the one missing name from the Day 1 Tex push who didn't come and help the Day 2 tex push.

@Beef - why weren't you on Tex Day 2?

She looked like town lurker tbh.

I guess I tunneled on moz/COA and got way too lazy.

[Beefster]

Beefster's a hard townread, and that's reinforced by texcat's play yesterday. She really wanted her Beefster case to go through. It didn't look like bussing at all.

Not to mention that bussing would be extremely stupid at that point in the game.

Just saying.

[Beefster]

I forgot about Maxous. After looking at his ISO, I noticed his scum interactions are GOLD.

> while not pushing any lynch agendas

Not pushing anything makes him a town lean? Why?

because if he's helping push good discussion along without having a particular lynch agenda than that is objectively pro-town behaviour

uhh real mountain out of a molehill here guys.

i just felt Athena and Penguin were a bit towny in the first couple of posts. I didn't mention names because i wanted to avoid the Q&A but it happened anyway.

I have more solid town leans on Moneybags and Mozamis by this stage.

This post throws me off. It feels as though Maxous is trying to shrug everything off and dissuade the line of discussion as much as he can, posting everything necessary to get the heat off of him, as though checking through a list.

well sure maybe, but why's that particularly scum-motivated?

i'm obviously not encouraging a wagon on myself and I *am* helping with reads

-
caught up.
don't really feel like voting Beefster anymore.

VOTE: Bellaphant

for now
I felt like she could of said a little more in the previous post

Bold emphasis added. Looks like self-conscious deflection.

not entirely sure if it's playstyle or alignment but texcat is a little quiet.
she's only talking about a select few people.

Calls attention to texcat without placing a vote.

I will legit be so disappointed if Moneybags is scum. I like his posts so much.

It's really hard for me to see HeWhoSwims as scum right now too. He comes across as very genuine in a noobish sort of way? Can't think of a better term.
but he doesn't *seem* experienced enough to be faking it, imo. Maybe i'm underestimating him but :shrug:, i really just think he's town

HWS townread.

trying to think of anything more to say but meh.

here's just my gut reads and feelings, fuck it

I think they're town:

HeWhoSwims, Moneybags, Klick, Flubbernugget, CultOfAthena

Haven't had an issue with:

Errantparabola

Players i'm flip-flopping on:

mozamis, Beefster

Tracker claim:

Radiant Cowbells

Under Review:

Thor665, texcat

Probably just scum:

Transcend

texcat was "under review" in this post, but analysis on her never came.

Yeah I'm not voting Beefster

This one was right after my "go ahead and lynch me post"
It's likely he was trying to avoid risk here.

Oh damn, was 5 mins too slow.
I've no interest in Texcat lynch.

VOTE: Mozamis

Let's get on with this and see what happens

Expresses disinterest with texcat lynch.

Alright we have 2 days left.
I actually have a lot of time early tomorrow so I'll get on this.

Wasn't Texcat a counter-wagon to HWS anyway?
Not sure it's the best lynch even from a gaming point of view unless you have something REALLY solid

Trying to deflect the lynch without actually defending texcat.

Who Texcat?
I've really cooled off on that.

EP or Moz atm

Lampshades the fact that he has ignored the issue of texcat for most of the game, pointing out random things here and there without doing anything about it. It's essentially how I subconsciously would act as scum.

VOTE: Maxous

[Beefster]

Hey all.

VOTE: Flubbernugget

I have a couple of town leans already I think

VOTE: Maxous
This looks like a blatant attempt to look like you're scum hunting without actually doing anything.

---

I like Penguin's reaction to Thor's case. And I liked that Thor pushed the case to get the reaction.

If Maxous is scum, this post jumps out at me as early distancing. Interaction between the two was kept to a minimum.

[Beefster]

I agree that Beef's read list has some reads based on little substance, but then again... it's early. It's certainly a bit iffy. The COA vote is pretty wtf given that there's no explanation at all.

One thing that worried me about Beef is that he was the first to "jump" on Thor after the latter brought up the timing argument which Thor then later said was to get out of RVS.

Some early reads for now.

Max - townlean, for reasons mentioned earlier

COA - townlean, hasn't posted much but 4 of her 5 posts are rich in content, and the other is an RVS vote which caused major discussion.

Moza - townlean, although there are a lot of 1-line posts he's questioning a lot ( = discussion). Not afraid to flip votes, seems to be keeping his mind open, and seems to be scumhunting too (by the PoE he mentioned earlier and this Beef stuff)

Moneybags - town, putting forward a lot of content and questions. Stronger townlean than the three above.

Flub - scumlean, for reasons mentioned earlier.

Beef - scumlean, see the beginning of this post and moz's arguments (although I don't agree with all of them)

Bella - scumlean, as some of her posts are "empty content" to me. 185 bothers me a little bit. I thought I made my opinion on Maxous pretty clear and expressed I wasn't liking the Bella wagon. I feel like 185 could be Bella trying to side a "swing vote" in me, with her. Any thoughts? It's not something I'm pretty set on right now... but it's still there, y'know.

Penguin - bit of a scumlean, as I said the argument COA made earlier holds up.

Leaves at null: ErrantP, texcat, Klick, and Thor, but apparently we need to read Thor as... Thor.

The townreads/leans are the people I really don't want to lynch today. I can live with the null ones except Thor probably. We have a lot of time left though.

Quick 5-tier read post, I feel like my previous explanations + what I've addressed since should be enough for now.

T: Mozamis, Moneybags
TL: Thor665, Beefster, COA, Max
N: Klick, texcat, EP
SL: (Transcend), Bellaphant, Flubbernugget
S: -

Transcend read is obviously mostly based on Penguin hence the brackets.

Conftown Transcend, RC

Town

Townlean Thor, Moneybags, Klick?, Beef

Null Mozamis, tex, COA, Max?

Scumlean Flubber, EP

Scum

If people want me voting then VOTE: Flubbernugget but as said, I'm just barely 100% confident.

I mean

TL on Beefy and he's talking which is good.

SL on Tex who's... not talking.

There could easily be one scum between those and if so I'd say it's tex every time, 90% of the time.

texcat was HWS's null for most of his time alive. Max was in his town pile for most of that time as well.

It's pretty common (I think) for scum to put one partner on their null list and the other on their town leans. Maxous fits the bill here.

[Maxous]

Considering how hesitant Texcat was to throw HWS under the bus, why do you think she was gonna aggressively distance from me?
I was fairly close to being an early lynch.

Also, I know people hate reading wall posts but I did talk about HWS and Tex in that catch-up.

I feel like my progression on HWS was reasonable.
I went soft on him early because I thought he was a newbie but got more suspect toward him when I realised he wasn't.

[Beefster]

I feel like my progression on HWS was reasonable.
I went soft on him early because I thought he was a newbie but got more suspect toward him when I realised he wasn't.

This seems focused on action and appearances rather than genuine motivation.

Maybe I'm just crazy.

[Maxous]

If I was putting that much attention on "appearances", I would of just bussed the hell out of him.
Much simpler

[Flubbernugget]

The problem I have with considering max as scum based on HWS reads is that HWS had a lot of tr's.

That being said, I would like to iso dive them later today

[TesXX]

[

b]

Official Vote Count 3.1

[/b]

Maxous

(2): Thor665, Beefster

Errantparabola

(1): CultOfAthena

Not Voting

(5): Maxous, Errantparabola, Flubbernugget, Klick, mozamis

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2018-02-22 18:44:22)

[Beefster]

The problem I have with considering max as scum based on HWS reads is that HWS had a lot of tr's.

That being said, I would like to iso dive them later today

Well considering that's only support for the actual ISO on Maxous, I wouldn't expect it to mean much by itself.

[Flubbernugget]

Hmmm. Max talks about tex a lot, but has them go from null to town. Nothing looks like coaching

[Flubbernugget]

VOTE: cult of Athena

[mozamis]

yep, good call.
Max is justscum hunting too much. Likewise Klick.
Cult just has done anything all game.
VOTE: cult

[mozamis]

Remember when Texcat and Hewho were the big wagons?
Cult was on the Beef "wagon" which was going nowhere.
Then she sat on EP ALL day yesterday. Never moved her vote. And came in today voting EP again. Shes not gamesolving.
She's scum.

[Beefster]

I'm pretty sure either COA or Max is scum. Both of their ISOs are consistent with scum play.

I'll vote for whichever today. We have more than enough room for error.

VOTE: cultofathena

[CultOfAthena]

I'm here right now and seeing people vote me as I preview my post. Unvote, please.

[CultOfAthena]

Errant has terrible associatives with texcat and I'm not sure how you all aren't seeing it. I'll go through them.

texcat: That line thing looks like a smart way to format posts. In fact, I’m doing it right now. Thanks texcat. I'll give it a test run, see if I like it.

If you read 178, he gives some kind of read on literally every single other player that he mentions except for texcat, who he simply makes a comment to regarding using lines for formatting. Even further, there were multiple people he didn't mention at all in his readslist, so it's not even as if he was going and commenting on everyone – it seems to me like he felt the need to mention his scumbuddy but didn't have a meaningful comment to make.

That is the only mention of tex for day one.

Flubber:

Your sudden focus on texcat doesn't make sense to me. What about her catchup that you reference in 179 is weird? Is it just lack of content?

Defends tex where HWS was doing the same thing, possibly coordinated in daychat:

Spoiler:

So make a case or something

Hmmmm...

VOTE: Flubbernugget
Telling me to make a case, when you are not. Plus telling us that voting Bella is a town thing to do, when you are not.

QFT.

Flubber, care to explain why both of these points are a thing?

Hm, guess I can see that. It just sounded like you were trying to let texcat make a case while ducking suspicion on your own so to speak.

I still think the Bella wagon is really meh but w/e. As long as it's not lynched without more incriminating stuff towards Bella.

pedit: I see moneybags being a voice of reason but don't see why it's bad. Especially in D1 which can be a chaos of accusations/reads without base and the highest amount of players screaming through each other.

1261 is large to the point where I don't want to quote it but it's basically the classic oblique angle that scum take when talking about a scummy partner, the "willing to vote there but I have other avenues I'd rather pursue", same thing in 1492.

---

RC's gonna hate me if he ends up being right, but I'll go here for now, I think I vastly prefer it.
VOTE: texcat

His vote on tex in 1627 comes at a time when it looked almost certain that moz was going to get lynched and despite EP expressing willingness to vote moz beforehand – that's a play for looking good on VCA and doesn't come from someone who had a real scumread on mozamis.

Around 1700 RC switches off moz and begins considering the possibility of an EP/tex scumteam, and then EP enters the thread with this:

think scum just wins this game. It doesn't seem plausible that all remaining scum is in {Maxous / tex / Klick / moz} just from basic scumteam theory. I'm also really surprised that RC scumreads me, the distance from my scumgame here is extremely easy to identify

And RC notices the exact same thing that I did:

why did you suddenly get super demoralized when I expressed support for the same lynch that you did and stopped voting someone you thought was town?

EP's explanation in 1710 speaks to the

content

of what he was saying, but I don't think he can conceal the emotional reaction contained within 705 initially.

---

It seems like nobody else shares my opinion on this, and I'm not sure why. If it's just for the tex vote yesterday, I think it's very realistic that scum!EP feels like it's necessary to bus tex in the situation that he was in, and the context surrounding his vote makes me think that it's very likely.

[CultOfAthena]

Remember when Texcat and Hewho were the big wagons?
Cult was on the Beef "wagon" which was going nowhere.
Then she sat on EP ALL day yesterday. Never moved her vote. And came in today voting EP again. Shes not gamesolving.
She's scum.

The beef wagon was the largest wagon of day one at one point. I voted Klick initially day two before moving to EP, and just because I never moved my vote doesn't mean that I wasn't gamesolving – see my questioning of max, klick, and my trying to convince RC that you're town.

I feel like you're making the same mistake with regards to me that you did in 702.