Mini 1993 - Earthbound Mafia: Giygas' Curse - GAME OVER

[Not_Mafia]

acryon is town, don't ask me why, everyone has what they need to figure it out

[Carrot and Stick]

Mod: reminder I am V/LA until Saturday.

noted for mastina head.

If acryon is indeed scum, and both MD and Icon are town, then why would scum choose to gladiate these 2?

Because towns refuse to no-lynch. It is ingrained in their brains that they MUST lynch. They refuse to give it up, they refuse to forfeit the lynch.

The scum benefit in mislynching a player the scum would otherwise spend a nightkill on is self-explanatory. Players who were previously unwilling to vote either suddenly become willing to vote one if not both, to ensure a lynch D1. It is specifically BECAUSE it is a hard choice to make that acryon as scum forced it. No matter who wins, town loses.

If acryon was doing this just for survival he could have chosen better options to gladiate.

There was no survival. There is no survival. There are no players in the game acryon could force a gladiate between and have him end up coming out of it alive. There is only the delay. acryon was doomed. Nothing he could do or say would change that fact. Claiming wouldn't, using his action wouldn't. All it did was give him an extra amount of life...so that's why he used it in the way which would hurt the town the most. In other words:

If gladiating at that point was a scumclaim either way he would have done it in a way that ensures it actually works.

BECAUSE gladiating at that point was a scumclaim either way there was no way he COULD "make it work". There's no coming out of this with long-term survival.

If your slot is doomed and NOTHING you can do can change this fact, and yet you have access to a power which can hurt the town, tell me, how do you use it?
-In a way which won't actually help your faction (because as you yourself point out, taking out Mathdino isn't enough on its own)...
-...Or in the way which most helps your faction by causing the greatest harm to the town?

I actually have a relevant (albeit old) example of this believe it or not.

Check out what happened this game.
I basically had the entire scumteam pegged.
Watch the wagon on Kalimar grow--does this look familiar?

Look at how Kalimar responded.
Keep in mind that at the time I was the player with the highest-accuracy reads of all the players in the game (if you can believe that).

And look at that explanation! Sound familiar?

And look how long it took them to lynch the slot after that shot. Was the slot lynched after doing the most absolutely blatantly scum-motivated thing possible? Nope, it was left alive for days before finally being put down.

It's the same basic move this game.
Just replace "dayvig the player most threatening to scum" with "gladiate the players most threatening to scum". (And yes I firmly believe acryon believed that Iconeum and Mathdino were in fact the players most threatening to the scumteam.)

If he did know that no lynch is possible why waste his gladiate on 2 people unlikely to get lynched who he in fact did not strongly scumread?

Because it didn't matter what he did--no matter what, it was a scumclaim. No matter what, he wasn't walking out of this. No matter what, he was only buying time. So if escaping death is impossible, instead, maximize utility while alive. The maximum utility is not to gladiate players who could be mislynched without the gladiate.

Maximum utility for a scum gladiator is to gladiate players who can

only

be mislynched WITH the gladiate

.

And that's EXACTLY what he did.

he would not be heavily bussed by his buddies if they know he has gladiator (as they know his lynch will stop at any time)

To the contrary! Him being able to stop his lynch any time means that scum hold no fear of bussing.

Did they, probably at least one but no way of telling if both.

[Gamma Emerald]

Let us ask then.

@MOD

can we go to a no lynch today?

I'll allow it if majority votes for it. However since I am doing this if no votes are cast for either player gladiated and no majority is achieved for no lynch then a coin shall be flipped to determine which is lynched.

No lynch goes to a coin flip I think.

@mod: am I correct in this statement? Or is the no lynch coin flip only if we time out D1?

@mod: can you please answer this?

Coin flip would have happened had no one voted either option and No Lynch wasn't hammered by deadline. There is no possibility for coin flip now.

[Carrot and Stick]

I considered trying to begin to reply to you C&S, but I don't think a drawn-out defense is at all fruitful for town.

AKA, "I can't respond to the valid points she raised against me because they were in fact valid".

This shouldn't be ignored just because someone doesn't like my play, which I think is probably fair (like I said, first time with this role and first time in a role madness game). Like I said, even if someone thinks I have colossally screwed up, making another objectively bad decision (NL) doesn't fix that.

We don't dislike your play or think you screwed up.
We fucking think you're scum.

[BuJaber]

Okay IB I'm gonna explain. Actually it's not really explaining more like just pointing at your posts and raising my eyebrows to the sky.

Inferno:

I'm totally glad I made this suggestion.
C&S are scum. If we have a Vig or an SK, shoot them tonight. Trust me SK, you want that slot gone.
Acryon is possible scum.
Mathdino is prob town.

Now, I can't really back up these reads right now, because there is so much content to go through, but I will try to do it as soon as possible!

So here we have Inferno calling both C&S and Acryon scum. Sure he has that 'possible' modifier when it comes to acryon but still reading them both as scum. So basically he interprets that giant C&S case on why acryon is scum as scum bussing their partner. Which doesn't make sense.

Inferno also in this post APPEALS TO AN SK TO SHOOT A PLAYER HE IS SCUMREADING. Seriously? I have never seen this happen in any game I have ever played and I cannot see a universe in which that would be something a townie comes up with. What is super weird is that everyone who posted after IB ignored this. Why are people not freaking out over that? Am I seriously the only one who considers that weird?

Brafin:

Of course I disagree with my buddy again. I see C&S as town, Acryon as obvScum, and MD as potential scum. Their partner: Either TGP, Beef, or Bujaber, leaning Bu. That neat little gambit that Ico pulled has me thinking he's the scum out of that group.

Publicly announcing disagreement among the hydra heads. That's NAI probably. But then what gambit did ico pull? What group is he in? There seems to be a pattern where IB post stuff without really thinking about what they're saying an example of which we shall also see in the next post.

Inferno:

@BuJaber: Why does this make me scum?

Going to start to explain my reads.
To put it simply, in scum!acyron world, scum!MD just doesn't make sense. Imo, Ico has been townread quite a bit more than MD, so why would scum!acyron put his scumbuddy in this position? I just don't see that happening.
This is not to say that acryon is town. I am having a very hard time justifying town!acryon right now. But scum!MD doesn't make sense in a scum!acryon world.
This combined with what I'm getting from MD's responses, makes me think that there is a fair possibility that he is town.

Acryon's play just does not seem to come from town. It could be possible, but I sincerly doubt it. I'm giving the benefit of doubt right now becasue of C&S, because i can't see them as partners.

But C&S is defintely scum. Here's the first things I notice about the ISO:
C&S gives us a readlist, but there's no specifications on where anyone stands on it. It's all very general.
They take out MD's towncred without actually attacking the reads themselves, hiding behind a "long term interactions" wall.
Here's something interesting: The order of the posts is making me heavily think that this is a case of AbN (Assumption Before Narrative). They form a read and say very little about how they get to those reads, and then begin to force the reads. Seems... informed.
A lot of what C&S walls wit halso seems rather piddly.
Post #547: Is there not such a thing as idiotic scum? Now granted, I don't think my play was that bad, but I know that such a thing exists.
C&S's responses to Ico consistently seem to come from buddying. I don't like that.
This gunsmith guilty thing is really pinging me. Because what kind of setup would have that as a day ability? And we haven't had a N0. So this softclaim seems very weak.
In #866, C&S says he's scumreading Ico. But in post #790, the slot claims that Ico is one of it's strongest townreads? Where did this changes so fast?
And yet he's all for protecting Ico?

One thing is for sure, and that is that C&S+Dino is not a thing, nor will ever be a thing this game.

p-edit: Here's a thought: could Ico+Acryon be a thing?

So here Inferno is implying he thinks acryon is town because c&s has to be scum. That would be fine if inferno didn't scumread acryon too in the post quoted above. He keeps saying he can't see acryon as scum then considers scenarios in which he is, like he does here again in the pedit.

Have you even read c&s's posts? Mastina is pretty much concluding that she now has a solid townread on MD. So 1) how is she taking out MD's towncred? 2) why can't they be buddies if she's TR'ing him?

Brafin:

@Math No, It's not C&S, Acyron, and you, in my opinion. It's Acryon, BU, and you. And Almost50 makes a good point in the next post; if Acryon is scum, you are most likely town. The chances of anyone bussing like that are slim.

That being said, anyone who tried to force a Ico lynch is reading scummy to me. With two reads that were unlikely to be lynched, anyone who does a complete 180 after there is no-lynch possibility is probably not playing in town interest. That includes TGP, who wasn't even reading Ico, and Bu, who not only does a complete 180, but then tries to quick-end d1 with an L-1 no-lynch when he realizes he's not going to get away with it. Super scum-indicative play, imo.

P-edit: which means at this point, we have several pretty much confirmed town and one confirmed scum. That's awsome.

Brafin is townreading MD but putting him in his scumlist with me???? Not only that but he says acryon is scum which means MD must be town but he puts them down as scumbuddies together???,



The IB heads continuously post things that are inconsistent, strange, and aggressively attack players for the wrong reasons.

For example you are considering the possibility that Ico is scum and are saying he pulled a gambit and then attack me for wanting to lynch him?

Also it is quite clear it wasn't a 180 on my read on him. The situation we are facing has forced to look at the game differently and I scumread icon based on other people's play.

@NM - I am inclined to agree that acryon is town I think I made that very clear. But spell it out for us we're dumb. Also a lot of people are scumreading him and even I think he could be scum. His play simply doesn't make sense as either alignment. So whatever you have that helps get a read on acryon will be helpful.


Pedit - okay mastina assuming acryon didn't know no lynch is possible then I guess it does make sense for him to gladiate these 2. If he did know though I'm not sure he'd still do it this way.

[BuJaber]

Entertain this though.

Icon claims himself that he has an unimportant role. Can't we afford to lynch him for the confirmation that acryon is scum?

Because if acryon is town we are losing a golden opportunity to have an IC and save any vig shots we may habe for a later target. AND use our D2 lynch on someone else.

I don't deny that it would be somewhat risky and playing into scum acryon's plans but what we gain from a potential scum flip on icon is much more than what we lose from an icon town flip imo. Are you really that confident in your acryon read?

[Carrot and Stick]

The easiest explanation to your choosing me is simple: a panicking scum wants to get rid of a player they know is unlikely to be lynched.

Precisely.

I have explained why in the points acryon oh so conveniently has declared he will ignore.

There is no town trajectory to his stances. He went from having Beefster as his vote (and thus presumed strongest scumread which is backed by the readslist provided) with a conditional either-or scumread on BuJaber/Iconeum with Mathdino as null (and look at his justifications--Mathdino's a fencesitty read where he is incredibly noncommittal; Iconeum is a read which is only weakly insincere)...
...To suddenly gladiating both of them.

There is no explanation for the change; why wasn't Beefster the stronger scumread among the gladiate targets? While he said he'd vote Iconeum, that same post said Mathdino was null and that Beefster was still his preferred wagon.


There is no town motive behind his action. Why was his role now expended so important that he had to use it without warning? Why was his lynch so catastrophic that it needed to be avoided immediately? What viewpoint could that possibly fit under as town? That of a panicky, impulsive, irrational player? Except none of those things are acryon; acryon is a more calculated town player. He is the kind of person reasonable enough to be rational about it and calmly, cooly explain things.


There is a clear scum motive behind his action. Stave off the lynch of scum such that scum are guaranteed to not be lynched D1. Bonus points, it gives a shot at mislynching town players the scum would otherwise waste a nightkill on.

This is why lynching Iconeum or Mathdino is playing into scum's hands. It's doing their work for them. It is literally lynching a player they'd be forced to nightkill.

[Carrot and Stick]

Guys, not gonna lie, what's going on here is a classic case of town implosion

...He's in this game? I mean I don't doubt your read there but I legit didn't know he was even a player, I'll need to get back on you for my own thoughts there.

[Carrot and Stick]

So did acryon, who easily could've gladiators 2 town lurkers

Why gladiate players who can be mislynched without the gladiate?

Answer me that question.

Why would you, if you were scum, gladiate players who you know can be lynched without using the gladiate on them?

That is wasting the gladiate. Because players who can be mislynched without the gladiate...can be mislynched without using the gladiate. And thus should be left for later.

Also, point of fact; BuJaber commented on how the lurkers likely contained scum and he is not likely wrong there. If the lurkers contain scum, then the pool of "town lurkers" would in fact be rather small, so.

There's just a shitload of reasons why acryon has reason to do what he did as scum, and no reason to do anything else as scum.

[Carrot and Stick]

Acryon scum correct play was to not give us a choice that would result in no lynch

You act as if gladiates don't magically change players' willingness to lynch the gladiated players.

They do.

Like. Look at the number of players who were willing to vote Iconeum pre-gladiate.
Look at the number of players who were explicitly townreading Iconeum and defending him. (Fuck you're one of them.)

Look at the number of players who are willing to vote Iconeum post-gladiate. Or magically have stated suspicion which was nonexistent prior to the gladiate. (I can name names if you want but this isn't that hard to look at yourself.)

Notice a contrast?

You should. The number has skyrocketed. You can't just write that off as "oh maybe all those players were willing to vote Iconeum before and just didn't say anything". You of all people know that to be false given your own stance on Iconeum pre-gladiate.

You keep saying that the no-lynch is an assured thing.
It's not.

Fuck, the mod says that even if No Lynch has more votes than a gladiated player, if we don't have MAJORITY vote for a gladiated player then a gladiated player is lynched. That makes it TWICE as hard to achieve the no-lynch. It's not a default; it's not given; it must be deliberately done with an active majority.

Getting a no-lynch is next-to-impossible. You have to fight not only game mechanics, but game theory (players willing to vote someone they think is town), scum advocating for a pro-scum mislynch, AND town who genuinely believe that they aren't mislynching. Between the three, scum can be near-guaranteed that a no-lynch ISN'T going to happen.

So judging the gamestate on the assumption that scum would think we would is a mistake.

[Carrot and Stick]

To put it another way.
In order to achieve a No Lynch, you need:
-Seven players, who all:
*Believe that not only one lynch candidate is town,
*And not only that the OTHER lynch candidate is town,
*But ALSO that no lynching is better than mislynching.

And between the three, the no lynch is incredibly difficult to achieve.

Plus, that doesn't even go into the obvious point.

What's the worst that can happen with a scum-acryon using his power on two town from the perspective of a scum player?
We No Lynch, the game goes onto evens (which is pro-scum), unless either there's a killstop or an extra death during the night. acryon gets to live through the night. Scum get a free nightkill. We are left with less information than what we should have.

What's the worst that can happen with a scum-acryon failing to use his power on two town from the perspective of a scum player?
acryon who was in danger of being lynched gets lynched, forfeiting his power permanently. Scum are down one member, with many players as obvtown and no way to take them all out.

So EVEN IN THE SCENARIO OF NO-LYNCHING. Scum STILL get more by doing this than not doing it.

That doesn't even go into the best.

What's the best that can happen with a scum-acryon using his power on two town from the perspective of a scum player?
...A town player who was never getting mislynched is, suddenly...
...Mislynched. BAM. Oh and they still also have, acryon gets to live through the night. Scum get a free nightkill.

[BuJaber]

If A50 is down to vote NL we do have the votes.

[Carrot and Stick]

Without elaborating on speculation on reads or night actions, I would like everyone to answer:
Who is more predictable when it comes to their protection night action?
A. Mathdino
B. mastina

Difficult to say, actually. You'd think this would be easy, but there's two factors muddying the water. First, if Iconeum is not my protect, I genuinely don't know what to do as my night action. If *I* don't know what I'm doing today if not protecting Iconeum, then that makes it harder to predict because how can you predict what even I don't know yet? (However, see below.)

Second, there is ambiguity to my role. I've stated I'm a protective but I've also softed half a dozen confusing things which players are probably scratching their heads about. I can guarantee you the scum have tried to figure out what my role is and there's a significant chance they got it wrong.

...

That having been said

.
Gun to my head, if forced to choose, I'd actually instead say that *I* am the more predictable person when it comes to a protective night action.

Not knowing my role doesn't mean much since they know it's a protective.
Furthermore, just because I don't know who I'd protect outside of Iconeum, doesn't mean it's not impossible to predict who I will when I do eventually know. By guessing at my methodology (and while there's a madness to it, it's not too terribly difficult to do), it's not too terribly difficult to find out who I'd select if not for Iconeum. I have no clue because I've put no thought in, but scum would put the thought in.

Given that, I would think me protecting Iconeum would be better since I am more predictable. However, I will not protect Iconeum unless I hear explicit word from you that you are not protecting Iconeum given that you state you will protect Iconeum if we don't hash this out. (In other words, my CURRENT assumption is you're on Iconeum; I will assume this until you tell me otherwise.)

Suspect the people who made no effort to increase town cohesion (but also weren't the driving fucking forces in stirring up maximum chaos).

I'd direct you first and foremost to Momra on that front btw. Speaking of Momra, more on her next post, got a little more to say there.

[Almost50]

If A50 is down to vote NL we do have the votes.

VOTE: No Lynch

[Carrot and Stick]

And I'm not gonna do a damn thing until we get an answer

And thus you do nothing at a time where town absolutely would be doing something.

Ok. Lynch me tomorrow then

If acryon is vigged, absolutely, yes!

IF DINO FLIPPED TOWN WHO WOULD BE SCUM

Funny that you ask that when you have no answer to the very same question on BuJaber.
Do you still say you have no answer for BuJaber?
And for that matter do you still not have scumbuddies FOR BuJaber?

Since then your read has admittedly shifted such that you've stated the scumread on BuJaber has died--but little replaced it and the intent behind the question remains. Who are you scumreading and who's scum if they are town and what scumteams are you looking at.

I would look at Dino, Acrayon and beefster.

Odd, this is my scumpool minus you and yet you seem to not be making a point of it.

Why didn't you make note of reads similarities to me? As town, you would know my scumread on you would be wrong...and you would attempt a reach-out to me. You would try to get me to work with you.

You did not.

Acrayon is the odd one out in my tentative team. I still think his earlier posts are IIOA but his most recent posts are better. I can still see what he's thinking but I don't think he's really engaging with anyone still. Acrayon is the one I want to least likely vote but I would push my support towards Dino

Frankly I think that honestly I might scumread acryon most of them all and given that, this is an especially problematic stance coming from you when crossreferenced with the pressure on acryon--I switched my vote there, Iconeum was pushing for a lynch there, etc.

This is also valid.

Wakes up
Sees a few pages
Sees a Gladiate
Is now leaving.

Comes home.
Sees more than a few pages, reads them.
Sees a gladiate, comments on it and stays.

I wonder what's different about these?

[Carrot and Stick]

Oh! Also, forgot this.

STANCES, PRE-GLADIATE:

Another thing about beefster is the fact that he is suspicious of me and iconeum because we are going after low hanging fruit yet he himself is going after your slot whole your slot is under dire while both low hanging fruits were not

If Buju is town I would look at Dino, Acrayon and beefster.

Acrayon is the one I want to least likely vote but

I would push my support towards Dino

STANCES, POST-GLADIATE:

If i did decide to choose between Ico and Dino I would be leaning Ico because of his early confidence that he wasn't going to get lynched over Dino. Until he had gotten gladiated he was a non-presence in this game so I do not understand how he would have been a powerful player later on

[Carrot and Stick]

Actually I'd like acryon, Icon, and Mastina also to say who they'd lynch day 2. Doesn't look like all 4 are gonna live to see D2.

Surprising that you need to ask. acryon if he lives to see D2, Momra otherwise.

Your game would be improved by 20% if you just stopped scumreading Iconeum.

Only 20?

I can't believe we're actually taking no lynch seriously

I can't believe we're actually taking a guaranteed mislynch seriously.

[BuJaber]

Okay nobody end the day until icon and MD say. I think it's fitting the 2 gladiators have the final say. But also wait until people catch up to and comment on the last 2 pages.

[BuJaber]

Actually I'd like acryon, Icon, and Mastina also to say who they'd lynch day 2. Doesn't look like all 4 are gonna live to see D2.

Surprising that you need to ask. acryon if he lives to see D2, Momra otherwise.

Unless about needing to ask more about needing it to be public for NK analysis.

[BuJaber]

Less*

[Carrot and Stick]

Also, @Mastina: Check this post for the most recent example of me pegging you (as scum) correctly, although I was wrong about both RC & Anen.

Then you didn't peg me given that you called me scum for something I was doing to a player you also thought was scum (Aneninen). You were right for the wrong reasons rather explicitly.

Another incident was in Kuroi's game when we were all scum (all but Chara). However, there wasn't much I could've done about it in thread and I never landed the NK (nor did Peregrine) so I was literally at a disadvantage there.

That was also a read based on the faulty premise that I was strategically staying behind(/lurking). Something I never have done and never will. I read games as I can read them; I read games chronologically.

You've also had a rather notable incident where your misread of me was a direct contributing factor to a town loss since you took me out of the game at a time where I was needed to do things like point out we needed to massclaim, that you had made a fucking math error in your calculations at energy cost which drastically impacted things yet which nobody else corrected you on, and that both lynch wagons were town and why, among other things.

I'll believe you can read me correctly when I actually see it in action.

[Carrot and Stick]

Scumreading IB again

No, dumb town is still town.

[Carrot and Stick]

Post #547: Is there not such a thing as idiotic scum?

There is it's just distinctly different from idiot town to the point where you can point them out rather definitively and differentiate between the two rather easily.

In #866, C&S says he's scumreading Ico.

...No? I'm stating that KTHX'S scumread on Iconeum was out of place.

[Carrot and Stick]

(That having been said: kthx's 942 is much, much, much better. It's not outside of his scumrange unfortunately but it's enough to give hesitance to the scumread there if nothing else.)

[Carrot and Stick]

To add to my 664: Keep in mind that acron likely didn't know voting to No Lynch would be possible. This was something asked and answered in thread. IF he didn't clarify this with the mod in a PM, then the move makes even MORE sense as scum motivated over town motivated. If he was town AND in fact DID clarify with the MOD via PM, then he would have added that information when explaining his role. If he was scum and clarified, he would certainly omit the information. So, either way, SCUM SCUM SCUMITY SCUM.

This is both a valid point and something off of my own role PM I can vouch for--role PMs this game are incredibly ambiguous if mine is anything to go by. I know what my role does, but the specifics of the role are not detailed in the PM.