Mini 2091: The Purge - Game Over!

[Oversoul]

Shhhh
This is like the perfect speed for a game

[Oversoul]

I see no way to publicly clear anyone based on night actions. Due to the nature of the setup, any other random person may have taken the shot.

Yeah I don’t know what I was thinking

[Carl Tuckerson]

VOTE: emps

I saw this guy mechanically solve a game before, he doesn't need night actions cuz he can just tell us what to do with ours. Ez

[Carl Tuckerson]

Do we even get punished for no-"lynching" in this format? Aside from the fact that it means we didn't lock down a mafia's night actions.

[EspressoPatronum]

Do we even get punished for no-"lynching" in this format? Aside from the fact that it means we didn't lock down a mafia's night actions.

Hmm, good point.

The mafia have 3 potential shots each night. 1 is forced + breaks barricades but the other two are optional.

On the one hand, a no-lynch doesn't punish us very much. In all but 2 cases (hitting one of the goons), it's either not helpful (strongman) or hurting the town (any town).

On the other hand, every day we don't strand someone means another night that both the goons can coordinate 2-shot kill.

[EspressoPatronum]

Not stranding also forces more town to shoot, which then means mafia are more likely to kill at night without a coordinated 2-shot.

I think stranding is worth it unless we can figure out a way to coordinate 2 shots on someone without letting the maf team 1-shot each of the shooters.

[EspressoPatronum]

What if we strand someone then assign three people to either shoot the stranded person or barricade. It would cast a bit of uncertainty at the maf team when they're trying to select targets.

Forcing both goons to shoot opens them up to anyone else who decides to take a random shot.

[EspressoPatronum]

I see no way to publicly clear anyone based on night actions. Due to the nature of the setup, any other random person may have taken the shot.

Yeah I don’t know what I was thinking

We can treat our shots like pseudo-trackers. Hear me out:
- let's pretend everyone not mentioned in this scenario barricades.
- town A dies (barricades)
- Scum B shot town A.
- town C shot person D (who barricades)

If we trust C when they tell us they shot D but D didn't die, we know that D isn't the strongman.

[Gandalf]

Do we even get punished for no-"lynching" in this format? Aside from the fact that it means we didn't lock down a mafia's night actions.

Surely we do, yes? Any sort of random action works against town. So a missed lynch favours mafia? Random shooting is even worse?

[EspressoPatronum]

I see no way to publicly clear anyone based on night actions. Due to the nature of the setup, any other random person may have taken the shot.

Yeah I don’t know what I was thinking

We can treat our shots like pseudo-trackers. Hear me out:
- let's pretend everyone not mentioned in this scenario barricades.
- town A dies (barricades)
- Scum B shot town A.
- town C shot person D (who barricades)

If we trust C when they tell us they shot D but D didn't die, we know that D isn't the strongman.

This method gets way muddier when we factor in people lying about their targets and such. I'm not sure if it'll be super helpful right away, but we should truthfully report our night actions on the subsequent day.

When/if people flip town, the survivors can look back at the night reports and piece together hints. It'd be like pieceing together a bunch of "not-rules" in a logic game.

[Carl Tuckerson]

Do we even get punished for no-"lynching" in this format? Aside from the fact that it means we didn't lock down a mafia's night actions.

Surely we do, yes? Any sort of random action works against town. So a missed lynch favours mafia? Random shooting is even worse?

I don't get what you're saying here, walk me through it.
No "lynching" here means that we aren't depriving anybody of night actions. The main logic to lynching on d1 is not that town is likely to hit mafia on day 1 (they aren't) but that the flip is worth the likelihood of hitting town. That doesn't hold in this game because a "lynch" doesn't give us a flip. If we think we're unlikely to strand the mafia then isn't it better to strand no one than to take a ~70% chance of stranding town?

[Carl Tuckerson]

I see no way to publicly clear anyone based on night actions. Due to the nature of the setup, any other random person may have taken the shot.

Yeah I don’t know what I was thinking

We can treat our shots like pseudo-trackers. Hear me out:
- let's pretend everyone not mentioned in this scenario barricades.
- town A dies (barricades)
- Scum B shot town A.
- town C shot person D (who barricades)

If we trust C when they tell us they shot D but D didn't die, we know that D isn't the strongman.

This method gets way muddier when we factor in people lying about their targets and such. I'm not sure if it'll be super helpful right away, but we should truthfully report our night actions on the subsequent day.

When/if people flip town, the survivors can look back at the night reports and piece together hints. It'd be like pieceing together a bunch of "not-rules" in a logic game.

I am skeptical of the ability to rig scenarios to get information, but I agree that if we're truthfully reporting our night actions, we should be able to logick out a high-% solution.

[TiphaineDeath]

EP=Town
CT=Town

[Gandalf]

EP is making sense to me? Is there any reason why this isnt a good idea?

[Carl Tuckerson]

EP is making sense to me? Is there any reason why this isnt a good idea?

The main issue I see is that rigging barricades and shooters tells scum who they can shoot, letting them get three kills instead of two. They have plausible deniability by claiming barricaded. That does narrow things down to some extent (you shoot among the previous night's barricades) but it also means we're down an extra guy unnecessarily.

To be fair, Espresso did only set up a partial frame of reference (for 3 towns and one mafia) so maybe I'm just not seeing the whole picture where all 13 people are involved.
Of course I'm interested in a solve like this if we can figure it out.

[Oversoul]

I think last time I was in a game like this, the game was broken down into people who would shoot into a group and people who would not shoot.

Personally I’m just here for a good time not a long time

[Gandalf]

Do we even get punished for no-"lynching" in this format? Aside from the fact that it means we didn't lock down a mafia's night actions.

Surely we do, yes? Any sort of random action works against town. So a missed lynch favours mafia? Random shooting is even worse?

I don't get what you're saying here, walk me through it.
No "lynching" here means that we aren't depriving anybody of night actions. The main logic to lynching on d1 is not that town is likely to hit mafia on day 1 (they aren't) but that the flip is worth the likelihood of hitting town. That doesn't hold in this game because a "lynch" doesn't give us a flip. If we think we're unlikely to strand the mafia then isn't it better to strand no one than to take a ~70% chance of stranding town?

I think you've convinced me. Someone who has played more will give an opinion. I'm confused about the maths in relation to the flip. Is this right?

[Oversoul]

I don’t think the math checks out because it isn’t accounting for masons from first glance.

[Carl Tuckerson]

Do we even get punished for no-"lynching" in this format? Aside from the fact that it means we didn't lock down a mafia's night actions.

Surely we do, yes? Any sort of random action works against town. So a missed lynch favours mafia? Random shooting is even worse?

I don't get what you're saying here, walk me through it.
No "lynching" here means that we aren't depriving anybody of night actions. The main logic to lynching on d1 is not that town is likely to hit mafia on day 1 (they aren't) but that the flip is worth the likelihood of hitting town. That doesn't hold in this game because a "lynch" doesn't give us a flip. If we think we're unlikely to strand the mafia then isn't it better to strand no one than to take a ~70% chance of stranding town?

I think you've convinced me. Someone who has played more will give an opinion. I'm confused about the maths in relation to the flip. Is this right?

I just eyeballed 10/13, it's actually closer to ~76% (9/12 = 75%, 12/15 = 80%). That's assuming a completely random vote, which it won't be, but getting above 50/50 on day 1 is pretty hard (both in my experience and based on what I've seen more experienced players here tell me about this site in particular).
Plus, in a counterintuitive way, it might actually be

good

to let suspicious people have their night actions. They have to do

something

and they have to have reasons for doing that something.

[Carl Tuckerson]

I don’t think the math checks out because it isn’t accounting for masons from first glance.

Lol I forgot there were masons.

I think my point stands but the odds of hitting mafia do get better. Now a random strand hits mafia 3/11 times instead of 3/13, so roughly.......... 70%.
Man I'm good.

[Oversoul]

I don’t think the math checks out because it isn’t accounting for masons from first glance.

Lol I forgot there were masons.

I think my point stands but the odds of hitting mafia do get better. Now a random strand hits mafia 3/11 times instead of 3/13, so roughly.......... 70%.
Man I'm good.

It doesn’t matter if it hits the Strongman, so it’s 2/11 which I think is higher than 70%.

[Gandalf]

Okay, maths people. So assuming there are "masons" then. Is it better to vote to lynch today, and then select a backup for town to kill at night at random, or to leave it?

[Carl Tuckerson]

You're right, that's back to ~77% to hit town.

Point being, we have a lot of work to do before we're stranding someone who has a reliable shot of being mafia, and in any case I suspect that much like in normal games where lynching town because it yields information is an acceptable price, allowing more night actions than fewer helps us too.

UNVOTE: emps[/vote]
VOTE: PURGE

[Carl Tuckerson]

triggered.

UNVOTE: emps
VOTE: PURGE

[Oversoul]

I think objectively we should still vote for people because potentially hitting a goon is still better than not even attempting to hit a goon. Even if we hit a random townie, it is still better for town because I’m average people are wrong with their reads anyway.