Mini Theme 2161: Undertale C Open - Chara's Folly

[Elements]

if you spare early you also increase the risk of the chara surviving

how do you figure that?
If there are 2 spares chara dies

the only way for the chara to live is 1 spare then one fight right? so an early spare is necessary for scum here

if we commit to sparing twice that's one thing, but if we spare today and then fight tomorrow someone is getting the stinkeye

so we commit to sparing 2
easy

[CantHateAPuppy]

HEAL: CantLynchAPuppy

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i think we can probly get to 4 good spares ez if we play with our hearts open

[Elements]

pooky are you always so lovely?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i have been given feedback that my more angry side is very bad and I am making an effort to be more radiantly optimistic in games instead

[Elements]

HEAL: pooky

[Elements]

acctually no
HEAL: isis
I want you around longer

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

HEAL: pooky

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

so close!

[Elements]

HEAL: pooky

HEAL: pooky
can't say no to that

[Chara]

also, people are forgetting that bad play on 4 FIGHTS (4 misFIGHTS in a row) means scum get parity and we're donezo
without any investigations at all

if we misfight four times we deserve the loss, skeleton.

[Elements]

have you thought about if the loss deserves us though?

[Chara]

murder is mechanically better.
but the only thing i'm hard against is a fully pacifist run, here.
i'd rather fight today and spare tomorrow if we must.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

we must purge thoughts of violence from our hearts to defeat the evil

[Prism]

Alright well my numbers differ from Hectic's (31% town win for 4 spare) but I still don't think it's optimal and I'm tired of typing a line of 50 fractions into Google that are probably wrong (45%+ w/r for four eliminations is almost certainly wrong) so I'm throwing my computer out the window and calling it a day for now.

someone call me when RVS is over I haven't played that phase in years

HURT: catboi deliberately misleading line is assigning intent that I don't really think is there

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

im getting 22% odds for winning with 4 spare

[Elements]

9/12 * 7/10 * 5/7 * 3/5 = 0.225
4 spares at random

[Prism]

Baseline for a town clean sweep is 22.5%, 1 mafia spare I think gives it an extra ~8.7% but that requires doublechecking some of the more complicated scenario counting so I'm done with that for now. Figuring out 1-3 spares is more important to me

[Elements]

one of them should be pooky
one of them should be me
one of them should be hectic

[Chara]

worst case scenario where we don't totally suck is 3 town fights and one scum fight. let's say the one scum fight isn't Chara.
that puts us at one mafia left (Chara dies), and 3 town alive. we also get the two invests courtesy of mafia.

if our one scum fight

is

Chara, we have two mafia left and three town alive. also, we autowin.

the actual worst-case scenario is we fail to fight either of the two non-Chara mafia four times, and then we lose. what are the odds of that? it seems very, very unlikely to me.

[Chara]

we get one chance at the autowin. it's a significant enough thing that mafia need to prevent it from happening this day. i want them worried about it right out of the gate.

[Elements]

why do we auto win?

[Chara]

we fight Chara day 1, then we do a terrible job of things and elim 3 more townies. mafia kills a townie a night, night 4 is skipped. that's 3 living townies and two living mafia, and everyone's alignments flip.

i've been trying to work this out in my head while people around me keep talking at me so it's possible i'm distracted and annoyed enough that this is wrong, but this is my understanding. it doesn't seem likely Isis would make it possible for us to autowin day 1, but this is how i understand it, so am i missing something obvious?

[Chara]

but even if we fail to fight Chara and hit a townie, the mafia were all forced to avoid the terrible scenario of Chara being fought, so their flip gives us something to work with. i really think we can hit at least

one

mafia in the ensuing fights.

[Elements]

oh wow yea, you're right
i missed that bit
I'm clearly great a reading rules