The propensity of scum is against sticking out.Goatrevolt wrote:Enlighten me. I don't see the downside of scum claiming blue, or why SpyreX as scum would have incentive to claim something else.Lord Gurgi wrote:If he was greenscum, or even bluescum, there is more motivation to claim something other than blue, than there would be if he was bluetown. That makes it a town tell, if not very much so.
/in-Vitational Game 5, Simon Mafia 2: Game Over before 832
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(11:26:07 PM) thesheamuffin: I'm counting gurgi because I would probably make out with him if I were drunk enough
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I'm taking that as a claim that TDC started on green.TDC wrote:2. Has anyone, besides me and fl, started out on green?
Why would claiming blue as an initial location make SpyreX stick out? He has no reason to lie about where he initially was located considering he claimed he was moved N2 to green. I fail to see this as meaningful in any way.
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Oh.
Fifth blue is a bit weird. Don't you think? You said as much earlier, but you don't seem to think it's weird that HE is fifth blue, or that it has any impact. I don't understand how you can have both positions.
Fifth blue is a bit weird. Don't you think? You said as much earlier, but you don't seem to think it's weird that HE is fifth blue, or that it has any impact. I don't understand how you can have both positions.
(11:26:07 PM) thesheamuffin: I'm counting gurgi because I would probably make out with him if I were drunk enough
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They are not contradictory positions at all. 5th blue is weird, odd, against what I perceived to be the setup. In no way does that mean he who claims 5th blue must therefore be town, and I don't see why that is the case at all. It's easier to claim the truth than to lie, even as scum. There's no downside to him claiming 5th blue as scum. Thus I don't see why it's a town-tell. Simple as that.
I don't think scum-SpyreX would lie about his initial location because I don't see what scum-SpyreX would have to gain by lying about his initial location. Unless his initial location was green (in which case he would be lying when he said he got moved to green) I don't see why he would be hesitant at all to just claim whatever room he started in truthfully.
I don't think scum-SpyreX would lie about his initial location because I don't see what scum-SpyreX would have to gain by lying about his initial location. Unless his initial location was green (in which case he would be lying when he said he got moved to green) I don't see why he would be hesitant at all to just claim whatever room he started in truthfully.
I have already claimed yesterday, when it looked like I was going to be lynched.
TDC wrote:Seeing how it's only three days to deadline and there are enough people around willing to vote me to make the four votes mentioned above happen, I'll also tell you guys that I'm vanilla and haven't been moved all game. I'm on green.
Is there anything that justifies the assumption that Elmo was not moved to Blue during N2, but started there?Goatrevolt wrote:At the start of the game:
Red:
ZazieR
Battousai
Goatrevolt
Yellow:
The ghost of Christmas Past
Blue:
Patrick
Nuwen
LlamaFluff
Elmo
SpyreX
Green:
DDD
TDC
LG
FL
I realize that is only a possible scenario if fl is town.
If FL is town, I have to assume that the scum bellhop waited on all night actions until now to keep themselves hidden OR that they were moving scum around for ???.
If FL is scum, well, mind blown and absolutely confused considering the setup - a mountainous with the only non-vanilla being scum? Woosh.
----
No matter how I spin these dice it keeps coming up TDC making the most sense for the lynch. Further, if we're a gambling (which we are) I don't see Batt coming out with a power bus AND I still think GR is town so I want to lock red.
(Yes, this means that I think one of, if not more, of LG, DDD and TDC are lying about their current location).
If FL is scum, well, mind blown and absolutely confused considering the setup - a mountainous with the only non-vanilla being scum? Woosh.
----
No matter how I spin these dice it keeps coming up TDC making the most sense for the lynch. Further, if we're a gambling (which we are) I don't see Batt coming out with a power bus AND I still think GR is town so I want to lock red.
(Yes, this means that I think one of, if not more, of LG, DDD and TDC are lying about their current location).
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Moving scum off of green secretly would allow scum to be able to submit kills without anyone being aware of who is making them. There is incentive for scum to do this, and in fact, I consider this to be an extremely likely situation (the alternative in my eyes is that Batt is scum). If FL is scum, N1 when "she moved herself" could have been her moving a scum buddy off of green. If there is another scum bellhop, N1 or N2 could have been moving a scum buddy off of green to allow for easy access to kills. It's also possible that nobody was moved off of green and someone is simply lying about being on green.SpyreX wrote:If FL is town, I have to assume that the scum bellhop waited on all night actions until now to keep themselves hidden OR that they were moving scum around for ???.
@TDC: I'm working under the assumption that dead town players would have informed us if they were moved, because it would be an obvious sign of a scum bellhop, and there would be no reason not to report it.
At this point, I seriously need to reevaluate. Elmo being dead town means I am wrongly clearing someone as town, but the question is who...TDC? FL? DDD?
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Official Day Four Vote Count #1
1 – TDC (Battousai)
With
7
alive, it takes 4
to lynch, and 3
to lynch at deadline. Deadline is October 29, 9:59 pm CDT.Not Voting – 6 – Debonair Danny DiPietro, forbiddanlight, Goatrevolt, Lord Gurgi, SpyreX, TDC
Last edited by petroleumjelly on Sun Oct 18, 2009 8:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
"Logic? I call that flapdoodle."
I thought you thought Batt was town as well.Goatrevolt wrote:At this point, I seriously need to reevaluate. Elmo being dead town means I am wrongly clearing someone as town, but the question is who...TDC? FL? DDD?
Should I read the above as "I'm probably not wrong or Batt" or "I'm probably wrong on Batt"? One way or the other, you seem to have little doubt about his alignment?
Sounds easy enough in theory, but when you look at the dispersal the ONLY thing that makes sense in "the towniest players" is locking red.
Which, hell, I'll do right now:
And since I'm being so fancy:
Which, hell, I'll do right now:
Lock: Red
And since I'm being so fancy:
Vote: TDC
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Wow. We have plenty of time, no need to rush blindly. I don't suppose you would be willing to unvote, would you, SpyreX?
TDC, I thought you hadn't claimed yet. Saying "THIS IS WHAT THE SMART SCUM WOULD DO GUYS" is not a good idea if you hadn't. Sheesh.
TDC, I thought you hadn't claimed yet. Saying "THIS IS WHAT THE SMART SCUM WOULD DO GUYS" is not a good idea if you hadn't. Sheesh.
(11:26:07 PM) thesheamuffin: I'm counting gurgi because I would probably make out with him if I were drunk enough
This isn't a blind rush by any means. I thought TDC was scum yesterday, I think that the eventual shift wasn't an accident by any means and considering the amount of time ALREADY this has sat in hammer range I'm not shocked and or awed we didn't see a game-ending move.
Because TDC is scum.
Because TDC is scum.
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Wow, so few posts this weekend.
I'm not sure if the lack of hammer on TDC is the nail in the coffin yet, considering we have seen nothing from FL or DDD in the meantime. Either way, he is most likely going to be lynched today, either from scum hammering home a lynch on a townie TDC, or by everyone checking in and the realization that he has to be scum. I'm starting to think it's the latter.
Can we at least lock down a floor in the meantime?
I guess the alternative is that both Batt and Spyre are scum, but I find that unlikely.
Lock Red
I'm not sure if the lack of hammer on TDC is the nail in the coffin yet, considering we have seen nothing from FL or DDD in the meantime. Either way, he is most likely going to be lynched today, either from scum hammering home a lynch on a townie TDC, or by everyone checking in and the realization that he has to be scum. I'm starting to think it's the latter.
Can we at least lock down a floor in the meantime?
I guess the alternative is that both Batt and Spyre are scum, but I find that unlikely.
Mod: can we get a prod on FL and DDD? It's been almost 3 days
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I'm still here, there's just nothing to say
Mod: can we get a prod on FL and DDD? It's been almost 3 days
I'll agree with
Lock Red
Also, TDC is at L-2. Meaning it's not likely he'd be quickhammered.
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Ah, true.
Not if he's scum. If he's town, Batt and Spyre would both need to be scum for quick hammering to not be a possibility.
"Never have I seen anybody glorify their own lynch."
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TTGL Mafia is over. Going to mod [b]Umineko No [color=red]Na[/color]ku Koro Ni[/b] Mafia. Pre-/ins, as always, are accepted.
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TTGL Mafia is over. Going to mod [b]Umineko No [color=red]Na[/color]ku Koro Ni[/b] Mafia. Pre-/ins, as always, are accepted.
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