↑TraceyLyn11 wrote:
I'm feeling incredibly uneasy about DGB. Unfortunately, I still haven't been able to re-read Camn/Fujiko.
Basically, I'm happy with a Sucrose or DGB lynch. Maybe Piggy.
Why hasn't this re-read of camn/Fujiko been delivered? Why announce you are willing to lynch 3 townies today, before your promised reading? That's not town-think.
Also, why are you asking for approval, and if you think I'm scum, why are you not voting me?
Gut scumreads:
Sucrose
DGB
Piggy
Camn
When I have time tomorrow, I'm going to read back over my reasoning for Fujiko null-scum and Camn null-town. Other than those, I'm fairly confident in DGB/Sucrose. That last scum is probably between Piggy and Camn (or Fujiko, depending).
Now, without have done the promised re-read, we have a verdict on Fujiko & camn, but rather, going back to read her foregone conclusions Fujiko null-scum and camn null-town. How does she know if she hasn't re-read?
↑TraceyLyn11 wrote:It's either Camn and DGB or just DGB (or neither). I don't think Camn's scum without DGB. With that being said, I don't think Camn and DGB is completely likely. And I certainly think
both are scummy
.
But in the previous post, camn was nulll-town. Now, camn scummy?
Remind me - must read over Sucrose, Fujiko, Piggy, and Camn.
How come she's not re-reading me, but she must re-read Sucrose, whom she voted earlier today, and whom she thought was scum yesterday? Still no re-reading of camn, but the opinion keeps changing from null-town to sorta-scum without that re-read?
Sucrose
↑Sucrose wrote:Someone, or more likely multiple someones, in the following pile is scum:
Seastorm
Spring
Huntress
Camn
Amrun
I like this scumlist, actually.
Fujiko
↑Fujiko wrote:
And yeah, I have some rereading to do as well.
↑Fujiko wrote:There's no more redirector-type roles possible, right? (Something like a doctor would stop a lynch from happening.)
Fishing for doctor, yo.
springlullaby
↑springlullaby wrote:Meh, I'll reread this when I can muster up the energy.
↑Seastormjt wrote:Augh, prod-dodging. Catching up will take several hours, and I have something to finish before tomorrow that'll take about the same amount of time.
Should be back on Monday.
Wasn't back on Monday.
↑Seastormjt wrote:Blackout due to Sandy, not posting until power's back sorry.
↑Fujiko wrote:It's the answer you're getting.
A wagon with two people on it is a lot more likely to actually get us information than two wagons with one.
That's why I quoted TraceyLyn's statement about more information.
In other words, you're not answering. A two-person wagon this early in the day cannot be described as "
a lot
more likely to actually get us information." Further, you're insisting on an "information" lynch. Right.
I answered. Sorry if you don't like the answer.
An information vote is not the same as an information lynch at all.
And given the reaction my vote got - I think "a lot" was accurate. A camn vote would not have had the same response. There was one. Nothing interesting happened. It went away.
DrippingGoofball wrote:
↑Fujiko wrote:There's no more redirector-type roles possible, right? (Something like a doctor would stop a lynch from happening.)
Fishing for doctor, yo.
Not fishing for doctor. Factual question about setup. Badly phrased attempt to confirm that both Apokalyptika and Tammy were in fact targeted by someone. Probably stupid to ask in thread, but too late now.
Sucrose wrote:
↑Fujiko wrote:This is a meta-question I've had in other games before -- it feels to me like conventional wisdom is that townies aren't self-conscious, and don't post cautiously - don't make that kind of post. I don't understand this at all. Independently of this game, can someone please explain it? After the game is fine.
I feel strongly about this and would like to comment, but since you said "independently of the game" I won't right now.
It doesn't necessarily have to be independently of the game - I just wanted to make it clear that this was a question independent of the setup, and if people didn't want to answer in game for whatever reason, I still wanted to hear the answer.
TraceyLyn11 wrote:Fujiko's post #974 leaves me all confused. On the one hand, she's agreeing with me. On the other hand, it's taken several pages since my initial readings for her to jump on DGB - not to mention a vote from me. Plus two of her scum reads - DGB and Camn - are (sort of) two of my scum reads. jdsnihfuisuijiururisiuiruriu
Why so long? I'm not that swift... It took me a few days to decide that one of the scum was most likely there, because nothing else made sense. I'm also having trouble reading what's going on here.
Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 8:55 am
by Amrun
Yes, DGB, that was part of my point. Plz to be killing tracey now.
Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 11:40 am
by Seastormjt
I want to write up a huge readwall like I did last time, but to be honest I'm not sure where to start so that it's still relevant, so I did votals and really horrible ISOs (Don't have the time to go further in-depth atm :/)
Huntress has been asking for this: I feel like you've been asking questions, but you haven't actually talked about what they mean or looked at the answers (Fujiko, Eidolon), which makes me feel like you're asking questions for the sake of asking questions and looking involved in the game. You don't actually react to the answers, which makes me feel like you don't care about the answers, which makes those questions fluff, which means that you've been fluff posting most of your posts.
*Dark green = townfirm (as I see it), Blue = Pseudo-clear, Dark red = Scum
Hm. Analysis:
Don't like Huntress any more than I did
Like Sucrose less.
Only one of the ^^^ are scum, probably.
DGB doesn't look particularly lovely
Amrun and Fujiko look clear(er)
If Sucrose is scum, Tracey's clear, Huntress is clear, Brandi and camn are clear, Piggy's clear, Spring's clear, Fujiko's clear.
If Huntress is scum, Sucrose is clear, Fujiko's sort of clear, and... Surprisingly it doesn't tell me any more than that.
Interesting.
Voting:
Huntress
Sucrose
(My knowledge of votal analysis is very basic, I apologize)
...So now that warm-up's done, I guess it's time to look at ISOs.
(Fun fact: I had a good half of the playerlist listed as scum until I realized I probably can't use the same scumtells here as I usually do -- Namely, not giving reads and/or analyzing. I've struck out the places where I see that and changed my reads accordingly.)
There is text below this spoiler please do not miss it.
Spoiler:
Tracey: I find it interesting that instead of actually writing your reads, you instead get into an argument with people for approximately thirty of your own posts, pretty much clogging up the thread. Vote on Rach seems lazy, it boils down to meta and active lurking. Reading through that huge wall of hers (finally), I don't like the waffling she does in most of her reads :/ I also find it funny that she talked about making an ISO of everyone and winds up not posting the Tammy and Eidolon ones.
Biggest thing that ticks me off is that she took so long to make this but most of her reads are "going with my gut, null [town/scum]. Maybe it's because I'm skimming the parts of the post that actually pull evidence.
That post aside, she actually seems fairly towny? Net-null-leaning town.
Sucrose: Right, the Sucrose hammer was sort of suspicious to me. I mentioned that I like to wait for people to talk, which was why I didn't vote Telo. I'm used to 120 hour days and I've seen wagons build or dissolve in a matter of hours -- Heck I've seen an entire day start and end in an hour. What I didn't like about Sucrose's hammer was that Telo had still wanted to post reads, iirc, and not letting her give them feels a lot like she was trying to silence a scummate. She talks about how Telo was caught scum, but I'm not sure how she knew Telo was scum before the hammer. I've been giving Sucrose a town-read because of the vig soft-claim, but honestly the way she changes her mind on the kill makes it pretty clear that's not the case.
Light scum.
Spring: Okay I don't like Spring. Just flat-out ugh. The D1 stuff felt town-on-town,
though I'm less than fond of the tunneling,
which is later completely dropped... And then later come back to? It's contradictory, and I feel like she hasn't been paying any attention to the thread -- Note that her next vote is on Tracey, for the vote on Telo and
she doesn't comment about anything/anyone else on D1.
Light scum.
Piggy: The only thing she has going for her is the reaction to the Dayvig, which isn't hard evidence if you consider that scum have daychat and could have potentially warned her about it. What I find incredibly interesting is that she's very approving of Sucrose's hammer and then turns around and votes Sucrose within two posts of her ISO with nothing in between.
I can... I can tell she has reads if I squint hard...
Null, possibly null-town.
Huntress: A lot of people are saying Huntress was white-knighting Telo, but I don't quite agree, and I really don't like how she tries to back off the wagon while still saying "Oh, yeah, I still have a mild scumread on her, yeah." (Also: Post where Rach explains is 166).
Turns out the questions thing still applies --
Slight scum
Fujiko: I... Yeah I can't see why everyone seems to think she's scum, unless she's, like, completely avoiding questions. Her ISO seems fine, her posts seem fine, vote positions seem fine...
Towny.
Eidolon: I thought her argument with camn was town-on-town, and I like what she's been posting. I'm not even sure what to say here, she's been acting towny, giving reads, looking in different places, etc.
Towny.
DGB: I don't like how much she refers to scumtells and how carelessly she just says "Oh, _______ is [town/scum]" without any reasoning and oh my god I just dislike this playstyle (I'm sorry :<). Most of this needs to be struck out because I find a lot of people doing this (3/4 of the game cannot be scum).
Null, would be scum
camn: I like camn? I'm getting really tired at this point and I'm just going off of what I remember, but I do remember her making cases against or for people and I find that towny.
Towny.
Amrun: Despite all the RL stuff, I find her posts not that bad. They do make sense, though I wish there were more explanation.
Light town.
Okay, there is no way I'm not coming back to this, this is actually kind of just horrible. That won't happen today and will probably not happen in huge chunks, more like one or two people at a time.
Addendum: Quick skim of Brandi, who I somehow missed: Don't like the amount of reads she's been giving, don't like how here posting's deteriorated (I've seen scum do that), too bad very few people give reads on this site, slight scum.
Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 12:46 pm
by DrippingGoofball
Seastorm's biggest scumread, Sucrose, is just "light scum" yet Sucrose gets a vote.
I don't get this. I mean, many reads are labelled hard "towny" but there is no corresponding hard "scummy." Just some light scummy.
Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 12:47 pm
by DrippingGoofball
↑Seastormjt wrote:If Sucrose is scum, Tracey's clear, Huntress is clear, Brandi and camn are clear, Piggy's clear, Spring's clear, Fujiko's clear.
If Huntress is scum, Sucrose is clear, Fujiko's sort of clear, and... Surprisingly it doesn't tell me any more than that.
Where does this come from...
Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 1:08 pm
by Seastormjt
Votal analysis?
Also, I think Huntress, you and... Piggy and possibly Amrun would be labeled scummy, though I've chosen to ignore that you guys tend not to post reasoning because that opens up too many.
I also want to see Sucrose flip because of votals, I did a little color labeling assuming she was scum and everything looked okay.
Sorry I'm not going farther, this is as far as I looked when I posted.
I said, my understanding of votal analysis is very shallow, but I know one thing: Scum tend not to vote right after each other (It's very difficult to fake, even if you know about it -- the votes come off as really awkward.)
I've also noticed that if you assume someone's scum and that clears a lot of people, then that person tends to be actually be scum.
While the 'clears' don't correspond 100% with my reads, it narrows down the field quite a bit, and those do correspond with my reads -- For example, the second RM wagon shows it's likely either you or Piggy are scum, and the Telo wagon makes that lean toward Piggy and Eidolon.
I also just sort of dislike it when people just announce _______ is [town/scum] in reaction to a post. If you want me to go more in-depth with people, sure, but I'd like to know who to focus on first -- I'm neglecting quite a bit atm.
Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 4:26 pm
by RedCoyote
Happy (belated?) Birthday, Brandi!
Vote Count 3 - 5
TraceyLyn11
(4) (Amrun - PiggyGal15 - Brandi - camn)
DrippingGoofball
(3) (TraceyLyn11 - Fujiko - Huntress)
Huntress
(1) (Sucrose)
Amrun
(1) (DrippingGoofball)
Sucrose
(1) (
camn
- Seastormjt)
Not Voting
(2) (
Brandi
- springlullaby -
PiggyGal15
-
Fujiko
- Eidolon -
Huntress
-
Seastormjt
)
With twelve alive, it takes seven to lynch.
Current Deadline:
(expired on 2012-11-06 20:10:00)
Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 4:57 pm
by DrippingGoofball
↑Seastormjt wrote:
Scum tend not to vote right after each other (It's very difficult to fake, even if you know about it -- the votes come off as really awkward.)
About 3 years ago, I examined this theory of scum avoiding twin votes as a possible factor in my analyses. I'm not using it anymore, because it's fail. Scum twin votes way too often. I find it odd that you'd claim "shallow understanding" and follow this up with some arcane theory that didn't stand the test of reality.
↑Seastormjt wrote:
I've also noticed that if you assume someone's scum and that clears a lot of people, then that person tends to be actually be scum.
WUT
Please run back to your QT, your scumpals are coaching you all wrong. Maybe they can explain it to you again, and you can parrot it back to us in a clearer way that will help me understand better what thoughts your scum team are planting in your head.
This is complete and utter rubbish. You cannot clear Amrun or Fujiko for twinning votes with Telo. Scum don't monitor each other's votes, and
never
, ever, in my long career of plotting against townies in QTs, did I ever see a mention of scumz going:
"Be careful! I just voted! Don't vote right after meeeee!!!!! They're going to fiiiiiiind us if we dooooooo!!! Waaaah!"
In fact, Piggy looked like a nice comfy mature wagon that the scum could have blamed on me in the event of a mislynch. They're in a rush to get to night to avoid suspicion and kill townies.
We're in solid WIFOM territory.
Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 5:07 pm
by camn
/bows to DGB.
Didnt someone get on my case for thinking she was town? ITS OBVIOUS.
Didnt someone get on my case for thinking she was town? ITS OBVIOUS.
Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeah. You picked up something that escaped me, obviously.
Anyhoo. It's clear I'm arguing with scum here, and the whole QT, whispering in her ears.
Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 5:14 pm
by DrippingGoofball
I don't want to rush to a lynch, because I still need to torture Springlullaby.
Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 5:34 pm
by Seastormjt
Shallow understanding = I've played with someone who does votal analysis often and that's one of the most upheld ideas.
ie, I didn't make it up.
Heck I don't even know why it happens, just that it's really hard to break the habit.
Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 5:56 pm
by camn
YOu dont believe?
You just saw a townie do it once?
Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 6:08 pm
by Seastormjt
No, I've seen a towny do it several times with eerie success and I've tried to break the pattern as scum.
Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 11:12 pm
by springlullaby
Happy toussaint, on this glorious paid holy day, I shall read this game before going off for prolonged week end.
Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 11:13 pm
by springlullaby
↑DrippingGoofball wrote:I don't want to rush to a lynch, because I still need to torture Springlullaby.
Hmmmhhh oh yes pleeeease
Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 1:05 am
by springlullaby
↑Sucrose wrote:
This is interesting given that she wasn't on the Telo wagon, and wasn't strongly predicting Telo was scum, just that she was "okay with the lynch" followed by the quoted post.
Spring also quasi-defends Telo in her first post that mentions her, #177. She's a scum-read, but "only redeeming feature is that she reads as if she's not all there." This comment also came
after
Eidolon had said that Telo was "out of the loop." Spring later describes Piggy and Telo together as "derp and more derp."
I'll wait for Spring to respond to this.
I don't really see what I can respond to. Telo didn't make sense either way, but given the amount of wtf I was ok to lynch her either way. It's true I never felt deeply convinced Telo was scum though, plus I think Brandi was on that wagon too.
--------------------
Reading I don't particularly like how the discussion is centred around NK wifom but a couple of questions first:
@DGB, you are calling Tracey, seastorm and me scum. Why are you voting for Amrun?
@Amrun, so your reasoning is that Tracey is scum because DGB is alive. But then why should Tracey kill Tammy, she had a town read on Tracey too.
@Camn, I haven't caught your reason to vote for Traceylyn, can you explain again.
@Brandi, same question to you. What do you agree with in Amrun's case?
@Fujiko, what information have you gained from your vote on DGB?
@Seastorm, can you explain in two sentence why you are voting Sucrose?
Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2012 5:14 am
by camn
Her previous need to consolidate her leads to keep track of them better because they are fake, aaaannd.. wagon ho.
