Mini 1631 - Mafia with a Twist 3 (It's Over!)
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You guys think Mathcam was going hard in the paint with numbers, teamies lying, and bussing boo?
I think it is possible.
I think it is possible.
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Okay. I am barely awake, but if UT finds that math's figures are right and that lynching me breaks the game for town, I'm agreeable. I am not going to go through all those figures because it's perilously close to what I'm doing at work for the fiscal year close, but based on his actions around the Mathcam lynch I'm willing to trust that UT is town and will tell the truth.
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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well hypothetically scum would be in the best position to massage the lynches and kills to make it so town players are the "best" lynches before lylo, so I think it's entirely possible that cam was entirely truthful
I will go through the cop results today and see if I can suss something out (though I will be the first to admit that this sort of thing is not my forte
I will go through the cop results today and see if I can suss something out (though I will be the first to admit that this sort of thing is not my forte
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↑ serrapaladin wrote:The problem I have with mathcam being scum is thatthe person he works best with is, by far, boo, which I really don't see, since they would be weirdly cross-bussing AND boo would have decided to claim an inno on her scumbuddy. On that note, I'm also not a huge fan of boo voting against her inno. If boo is town, hb and I are individually about 4x as likely to flip scum as math, and std/UT are about 3x as likely. I guess that's consistent with her preference of reads over mathsy arguments, but upsets me on a logical level, since her mathcam read doesn't even seem particularly strong, and she's 0 for 3 by her own admission.
I'm unhappy with SerraPaladin basically defending mathcam here before the flip, pushing my lynch and then dismissing his own statements as soon as Day broke. I realise there's an element of OMGUS here, but it almost looks like he's setting up pushing my lynch (see the bolded part) while trying to stave off mathcam's lynch.
If we assume three scum (something I'm prepared to assume) then there are two left. There are seven of us. If you lynch me and there is a nightkill, that's 3 to 2. You HAVE to choose correctly then to make sure that we don't auto-lose.
Math's figures (and pure logic) indicate that it's very unlikely that two insane townies would choose the same target, especially since one (Mathdino's, now SerraPaladin's) was chosen randomly for reasons that escape me and that seemed at the time like scum distancing themselves from their own results. While I suppose it's POSSIBLE that two scum could have chosen the same target to scum-investigate, it seems like such a risky maneuver that I am not really considering it. So I feel there is one scum and one town in {Honey bee, SerraPaladin}. I could be wrong on this (I guess it's possible that both are scum and that they did this deliberately to create an illusion that I'm buying into). It seems such "next-level" thinking though. I just don't know.
The issue with saving this til tomorrow and lynching me today is that you still have the same coin flip between them. I think Honey bee is more likely town; others feel the opposite. That isn't going to change (barring a nightkill of one of them) by lynching me today. If the game can be mathematically solved by my flip, though, I'm all for that. If not, then I don't want to waste our last possible mislynch on someone I know to be town (me).
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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again, we literally learn NOTHING by lynching anyone else↑ Bookitty wrote:The issue with saving this til tomorrow and lynching me today is that you still have the same coin flip between them. I think Honey bee is more likely town; others feel the opposite. That isn't going to change (barring a nightkill of one of them) by lynching me today. If the game can be mathematically solved by my flip, though, I'm all for that. If not, then I don't want to waste our last possible mislynch on someone I know to be town (me).
this is a shitty argument you're making
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↑ Untrod Tripod wrote:this is a shitty argument you're making
Lynching scum would give more information, would it not? Otherwise, I have no clue what you mean by this. Are you just assuming we're going to lynch town regardless?
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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How? Mathcam said I was scum and tried to lynch me even though his own figures said others were more likely to be scum. So yeah, if you're going to lynch me, I want to know HOW it's going to help town. Can you give any specifics?
See, telling me I have this huge percentage chance to be scum means NOTHING to me because I know I'm not. It's like saying "You have a greater than average chance to be female based on my statistical analysis." If you're not, the statistics aren't going to mean a damn thing to you.
If lynching me gives you enough information to catch the scum, I'm for it. If not, then I'm going to try to catch scum today.
And ninja'd: I haven't figured out who the two confirmed town would be; however, if it's obvious, then I guess you would only have one tomorrow, right?
See, telling me I have this huge percentage chance to be scum means NOTHING to me because I know I'm not. It's like saying "You have a greater than average chance to be female based on my statistical analysis." If you're not, the statistics aren't going to mean a damn thing to you.
If lynching me gives you enough information to catch the scum, I'm for it. If not, then I'm going to try to catch scum today.
And ninja'd: I haven't figured out who the two confirmed town would be; however, if it's obvious, then I guess you would only have one tomorrow, right?
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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↑ Bookitty wrote:How? Mathcam said I was scum and tried to lynch me even though his own figures said others were more likely to be scum. So yeah, if you're going to lynch me, I want to know HOW it's going to help town. Can you give any specifics?
See, telling me I have this huge percentage chance to be scum means NOTHING to me because I know I'm not. It's like saying "You have a greater than average chance to be female based on my statistical analysis." If you're not, the statistics aren't going to mean a damn thing to you.
If lynching me gives you enough information to catch the scum, I'm for it. If not, then I'm going to try to catch scum today.
And ninja'd: I haven't figured out who the two confirmed town would be; however, if it's obvious, then I guess you would only have one tomorrow, right?
rtft
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Okay. I'm fine with it, then. But it's on you to find the actual scum and to win this game for town. I don't want any crap after the game about how I "let" myself be lynched and that was why town lost. Agreed?
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
"How do you know I'm mad?" said Alice.
"You must be," said the Cat, "or you wouldn't have come here."
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DID YOU NOT READ THE PART WHERE YOUR TOWN FLIP CONFIRMS TWO PLAYERS AS TOWN
BECAUSE LIKE
THAT SEEMS GOOD IF YOU'RE TOWN I DUNNO CONFIRMED TOWN PLAYERS ARE P GOOD TO HAVE
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