Mini 1631 - Mafia with a Twist 3 (It's Over!)


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Post Post #1000 (ISO) » Thu Jan 15, 2015 6:02 pm

Post by Varsoon »

Khehehehe
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Post Post #1001 (ISO) » Thu Jan 15, 2015 7:52 pm

Post by Untrod Tripod »

Let's not rush though. I want to see if I can reproduce those figures tomorrow. Cam might have been lying
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Post Post #1002 (ISO) » Thu Jan 15, 2015 10:25 pm

Post by serrapaladin »

Mathcam's math was right.
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Post Post #1003 (ISO) » Thu Jan 15, 2015 11:13 pm

Post by Varsoon »

You guys think Mathcam was going hard in the paint with numbers, teamies lying, and bussing boo?
I think it is possible.
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Post Post #1004 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 1:36 am

Post by Bookitty »

Okay. I am barely awake, but if UT finds that math's figures are right and that lynching me breaks the game for town, I'm agreeable. I am not going to go through all those figures because it's perilously close to what I'm doing at work for the fiscal year close, but based on his actions around the Mathcam lynch I'm willing to trust that UT is town and will tell the truth.
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Post Post #1005 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 2:22 am

Post by serrapaladin »

Lynching you won't break the game any more than lynching me or HB - it's just that the numbers have you as most likely to be scum.
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Post Post #1006 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 2:28 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

well hypothetically scum would be in the best position to massage the lynches and kills to make it so town players are the "best" lynches before lylo, so I think it's entirely possible that cam was entirely truthful

I will go through the cop results today and see if I can suss something out (though I will be the first to admit that this sort of thing is not my forte
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Post Post #1007 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 3:31 am

Post by Bookitty »

serrapaladin wrote:The problem I have with mathcam being scum is that
the person he works best with is, by far, boo
, which I really don't see, since they would be weirdly cross-bussing AND boo would have decided to claim an inno on her scumbuddy. On that note, I'm also not a huge fan of boo voting against her inno. If boo is town, hb and I are individually about 4x as likely to flip scum as math, and std/UT are about 3x as likely. I guess that's consistent with her preference of reads over mathsy arguments, but upsets me on a logical level, since her mathcam read doesn't even seem particularly strong, and she's 0 for 3 by her own admission.


I'm unhappy with SerraPaladin basically defending mathcam here before the flip, pushing my lynch and then dismissing his own statements as soon as Day broke. I realise there's an element of OMGUS here, but it almost looks like he's setting up pushing my lynch (see the bolded part) while trying to stave off mathcam's lynch.

If we assume three scum (something I'm prepared to assume) then there are two left. There are seven of us. If you lynch me and there is a nightkill, that's 3 to 2. You HAVE to choose correctly then to make sure that we don't auto-lose.

Math's figures (and pure logic) indicate that it's very unlikely that two insane townies would choose the same target, especially since one (Mathdino's, now SerraPaladin's) was chosen randomly for reasons that escape me and that seemed at the time like scum distancing themselves from their own results. While I suppose it's POSSIBLE that two scum could have chosen the same target to scum-investigate, it seems like such a risky maneuver that I am not really considering it. So I feel there is one scum and one town in {Honey bee, SerraPaladin}. I could be wrong on this (I guess it's possible that both are scum and that they did this deliberately to create an illusion that I'm buying into). It seems such "next-level" thinking though. I just don't know.

The issue with saving this til tomorrow and lynching me today is that you still have the same coin flip between them. I think Honey bee is more likely town; others feel the opposite. That isn't going to change (barring a nightkill of one of them) by lynching me today. If the game can be mathematically solved by my flip, though, I'm all for that. If not, then I don't want to waste our last possible mislynch on someone I know to be town (me).
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Post Post #1008 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 3:50 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

Bookitty wrote:The issue with saving this til tomorrow and lynching me today is that you still have the same coin flip between them. I think Honey bee is more likely town; others feel the opposite. That isn't going to change (barring a nightkill of one of them) by lynching me today. If the game can be mathematically solved by my flip, though, I'm all for that. If not, then I don't want to waste our last possible mislynch on someone I know to be town (me).
again, we literally learn NOTHING by lynching anyone else

this is a shitty argument you're making
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Post Post #1009 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:15 am

Post by Bookitty »

Untrod Tripod wrote:this is a shitty argument you're making


Lynching scum would give more information, would it not? Otherwise, I have no clue what you mean by this. Are you just assuming we're going to lynch town regardless?
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Post Post #1010 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:16 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

holy fuck

lynching you has the highest expected value

what about this are you not getting
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Post Post #1011 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:19 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

if you flip town we have two CONFIRMED TOWN

if you flip scum then CONGRATS WE LYNCHED SCUM

with literally every other player in the game, lynching them clears no one if we've chosen wrong
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Post Post #1012 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:23 am

Post by Bookitty »

How? Mathcam said I was scum and tried to lynch me even though his own figures said others were more likely to be scum. So yeah, if you're going to lynch me, I want to know HOW it's going to help town. Can you give any specifics?

See, telling me I have this huge percentage chance to be scum means NOTHING to me because I know I'm not. It's like saying "You have a greater than average chance to be female based on my statistical analysis." If you're not, the statistics aren't going to mean a damn thing to you.

If lynching me gives you enough information to catch the scum, I'm for it. If not, then I'm going to try to catch scum today.

And ninja'd: I haven't figured out who the two confirmed town would be; however, if it's obvious, then I guess you would only have one tomorrow, right?
"Oh, you can't help that," said the Cat: "we're all mad here. I'm mad. You're mad."
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Post Post #1013 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:40 am

Post by Thesp »

Official Vote Count


serrapaladin
(2): Bookitty, xRECKONERx
Honey bee
(1): Save The Dragons
Save The Dragons
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Bookitty
(1): Untrod Tripod

Not Voting
(2): serrapaladin, Varsoon

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline
: (expired on 2015-01-29 12:00:00)
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Post Post #1014 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:41 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

Bookitty wrote:How? Mathcam said I was scum and tried to lynch me even though his own figures said others were more likely to be scum. So yeah, if you're going to lynch me, I want to know HOW it's going to help town. Can you give any specifics?

See, telling me I have this huge percentage chance to be scum means NOTHING to me because I know I'm not. It's like saying "You have a greater than average chance to be female based on my statistical analysis." If you're not, the statistics aren't going to mean a damn thing to you.

If lynching me gives you enough information to catch the scum, I'm for it. If not, then I'm going to try to catch scum today.

And ninja'd: I haven't figured out who the two confirmed town would be; however, if it's obvious, then I guess you would only have one tomorrow, right?

rtft
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Post Post #1015 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 4:43 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

feeling better about this lynch with every post Bookitty makes tbqh
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Post Post #1016 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 5:05 am

Post by Bookitty »

Okay. I'm fine with it, then. But it's on you to find the actual scum and to win this game for town. I don't want any crap after the game about how I "let" myself be lynched and that was why town lost. Agreed?
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Post Post #1017 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 5:40 am

Post by Save The Dragons »

VOTE: Bookitty

Am down, not quite caught up will do so later.
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Post Post #1018 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 6:35 am

Post by xRECKONERx »

This seems stupid but whatever.

VOTE: Bookitty

Lynching her and hoping she flips town is just... what the fuck am I playing right now?
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Post Post #1019 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 6:36 am

Post by xRECKONERx »

Oh I hammered didn't I?

LOL
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Post Post #1020 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 6:36 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

ffs reck

COUNT
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Post Post #1021 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 6:37 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

Bookitty wrote:Okay. I'm fine with it, then. But it's on you to find the actual scum and to win this game for town. I don't want any crap after the game about how I "let" myself be lynched and that was why town lost. Agreed?

DID YOU NOT READ THE PART WHERE YOUR TOWN FLIP CONFIRMS TWO PLAYERS AS TOWN

BECAUSE LIKE

THAT SEEMS GOOD IF YOU'RE TOWN I DUNNO CONFIRMED TOWN PLAYERS ARE P GOOD TO HAVE
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Post Post #1022 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 6:37 am

Post by xRECKONERx »

tldr

also i just woke up after drinking copious amounts of Bärenjäger last night so you can hashtag handle it
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Post Post #1023 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 6:37 am

Post by xRECKONERx »

also thanks for sealing my fate as nobody's going to fucking nightkill varsoon
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Post Post #1024 (ISO) » Fri Jan 16, 2015 6:38 am

Post by Untrod Tripod »

like, look, I'm completely up front about this being a strictly EV move

it's not because of a scumread I have on bookitty (although it'd be pretty funny if dueling wagons yesterday were both on scum?)
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