Mafiascum.net

In post 995, Farkran wrote:

In post 991, Amrun wrote:

In post 987, Farkran wrote:

In post 984, Amrun wrote:Farkran’s case is BONKERS

Why?

Even if one or all of these people are scum, I think a lot of your reasoning is false. You have some good points but it just seems totally out of left field to me.

I want to reread for myself though.

Please re-read and point out where i am wrong or making it up. Because honestly i don't see how those trio's reads could be genuine. Also i'd like to hear why you shifted your scumreads from me/chara to nacho/almidia(bingle) today, i didn't ignore that - i was just waiting for you to speak up, but it seems like you're back to scumread me and i'm interested in why.

My scumreads were never you/Chara. From the beginning of the day, it was you/Sujimichi. Later in the day, it was alimdia/Psyche, with a small mention of you.

Now it’s more like ... you/alimdia but I haven’t really committed for the day because I want to re-examine some things, as previously stated. For the most part, anyone pushing something with reasoning that doesn’t seem to accurately reflect the meaning/intent of the players involved is suspect and that’s definitely you right now.

No idea why you think I scumread Chara. I do not.

In post 379, Replica wrote:To be honest, I don't have a good read on Hectic. I'm very bad at getting townreads, which is what this game really asks us to do. I saw some good continuity on a read iirc but I'm very dependent on expectations, and I don't see why scum Hectic

doesn't

play like this.

Things like this though are exactly why I love sparing Day 1: We get the most leeway in our spares today.

Ok, good, since you mentioned it we'll use this as an example.

If you single out Hectic as a good d1 spare to you, how is he NOT A GOOD SPARE IN D2? Just tell me how you can think like this and be town.

In post 1001, Farkran wrote:

In post 379, Replica wrote:To be honest, I don't have a good read on Hectic. I'm very bad at getting townreads, which is what this game really asks us to do. I saw some good continuity on a read iirc but I'm very dependent on expectations, and I don't see why scum Hectic

doesn't

play like this.

Things like this though are exactly why I love sparing Day 1: We get the most leeway in our spares today.

Ok, good, since you mentioned it we'll use this as an example.

If you single out Hectic as a good d1 spare to you, how is he NOT A GOOD SPARE IN D2? Just tell me how you can think like this and be town.

Huh? Is this a real argument?

Why would reads not evolve with the game? What?

In post 1000, Amrun wrote:

In post 995, Farkran wrote:

In post 991, Amrun wrote:

In post 987, Farkran wrote:

In post 984, Amrun wrote:Farkran’s case is BONKERS

Why?

Even if one or all of these people are scum, I think a lot of your reasoning is false. You have some good points but it just seems totally out of left field to me.

I want to reread for myself though.

Please re-read and point out where i am wrong or making it up. Because honestly i don't see how those trio's reads could be genuine. Also i'd like to hear why you shifted your scumreads from me/chara to nacho/almidia(bingle) today, i didn't ignore that - i was just waiting for you to speak up, but it seems like you're back to scumread me and i'm interested in why.

My scumreads were never you/Chara. From the beginning of the day, it was you/Sujimichi. Later in the day, it was alimdia/Psyche, with a small mention of you.

Now it’s more like ... you/alimdia but I haven’t really committed for the day because I want to re-examine some things, as previously stated. For the most part, anyone pushing something with reasoning that doesn’t seem to accurately reflect the meaning/intent of the players involved is suspect and that’s definitely you right now.

No idea why you think I scumread Chara. I do not.

Sorry. I went from memory by post 912 (and previous posts leading to that). I will wait until you finish your analysis and tell me where i am wrong or making things up though.

In post 1002, Amrun wrote:

In post 1001, Farkran wrote:

In post 379, Replica wrote:To be honest, I don't have a good read on Hectic. I'm very bad at getting townreads, which is what this game really asks us to do. I saw some good continuity on a read iirc but I'm very dependent on expectations, and I don't see why scum Hectic

doesn't

play like this.

Things like this though are exactly why I love sparing Day 1: We get the most leeway in our spares today.

Ok, good, since you mentioned it we'll use this as an example.

If you single out Hectic as a good d1 spare to you, how is he NOT A GOOD SPARE IN D2? Just tell me how you can think like this and be town.

Huh? Is this a real argument?

Why would reads not evolve with the game? What?

Tell me what has hectic done to fall down in Replica's spare list, from Replica POV. Anything, just give me one thing that could validate that read shift. The only reason Hectic wasn't spared yesterday is because sherlock found a huge townslip of sujimichi and he subsequently claimed, otherwise Hectic would have been hammered with no issues at all.

He's getting at "If you're willing to take a random bet Day 1 with an 8/10 chance of hitting it correctly, why would you be less willing to take it in later days?"

The answer is the probability of sparing correctly goes down every day. Day 1 -> Day 2 is a pretty negligible decrease (8/10 -> 6/8) which is why I'm still looking to spare him and am actively looking to nail down and get a solid read on.

P-Edit: Strange, I don't remember him falling down my spare list. Can you quote where I suggested I'd rather spare someone else?

In post 1005, Replica wrote:He's getting at "If you're willing to take a random bet Day 1 with an 8/10 chance of hitting it correctly, why would you be less willing to take it in later days?"

The answer is the probability of sparing correctly goes down every day. Day 1 -> Day 2 is a pretty negligible decrease (8/10 -> 6/8) which is why I'm still looking to spare him and am actively looking to nail down and get a solid read on.

P-Edit: Strange, I don't remember him falling down my spare list. Can you quote where I suggested I'd rather spare someone else?

In post 990, Replica wrote:I don't think Hectic is hardtown, he was playing okay and had a nice progression on someone, I think Billy Pilgrim, early Day 1 and has just been playing very crisply since the spare.

As mentioned before, I'd really rather have a better reason for a Day 2 spare than "Isn't making mistakes if he's mafia". Day 1 I'm very willing to play the odds with spares. Each day worsens those odds and I become significantly less inclined to spin the wheel.

Are you... just fooling with me or what?

None of that says there is someone I want to spare over Hectic.

At no point Day 1 did I ever give a hard townread on Hectic.

This dude is not reading, period, and refuses to open any of the linked posts.

I really struggle to believe this is town.

In post 1007, Replica wrote:None of that says there is someone I want to spare over Hectic.

At no point Day 1 did I ever give a hard townread on Hectic.

This dude is not reading, period, and refuses to open any of the linked posts.

I really struggle to believe this is town.

And yet you were willing to spare him, he was literally L-1 with intent on a spare wagon with your vote on it, the ONLY reason he was not spared yesterday is because sujimichi turned out to be a way better spare target, and even though the whole spare route is dumb, i am trying to read it from the POV of a player who genuinely believes it is optimal as you claim to be.

And yet, today you are suddenly looking for better motives to spare the exact same player.

And you keep separating math from psychology like i am not reading your posts. You are not reading mine. Probability has nothing to do with a player alignment. If you townread Hectic hard enough in d1 to spare him, you would also spare him in a 3p lylo with you, hectic and anyone else. Otherwise you do not spare him. Period.

Even better that he's supposedly been reconsidering the read on me but STILL doesn't sincerely engage or investigate any of the posts I linked to that addressed his concerns, nor engaged with any clarifiers.

It's almost like he's concerned more with making sure he doesn't get perceived as throwing in the towel than with actually investigating my alignment.

Person who does not have a strong townread Day 1 and defaults to sparing a townlean wants a stronger read Day 2, more breaking news at 11.

Calling my shot, the next point is going to be something like "How come you still try to get townreads if you think you're bad at it?"

In post 1008, Farkran wrote:If you townread Hectic hard enough in d1 to spare him, you would also spare him in a 3p lylo with you, hectic and anyone else. Otherwise you do not spare him. Period.

This should actually be hung in the Louvre.

Replica. Your arguments make zero sense. None at all. Everything you say is just... wrong, from every point of view i try to read it. From the start to the end. I literally quoted one of your posts, and explained to you why you were, once again, wrong. Your answer to this is that "i don't read and i am scum because of it". This is actually one reason why i am more inclined to scumread the other two instead of your slot. It seems to me that you are just very, very wrong in your approach to this game, so much that you do not understand what i am saying at all rather than actually pushing a scum agenda like i thought you were doing yesterday.

I beg of you, please re-read the setup and tell me how sparing scum could EVER a good thing in this game, and then come back to me saying that you would still spare a weak town read during d1 with so much confidence just to backpedal in d2 on the same person, without any further motive to do so besides pure mathematical probability. Until you do that, i can no longer talk to you for my own and this game's good.

In post 1004, Farkran wrote:

In post 1002, Amrun wrote:

In post 1001, Farkran wrote:

In post 379, Replica wrote:To be honest, I don't have a good read on Hectic. I'm very bad at getting townreads, which is what this game really asks us to do. I saw some good continuity on a read iirc but I'm very dependent on expectations, and I don't see why scum Hectic

doesn't

play like this.

Things like this though are exactly why I love sparing Day 1: We get the most leeway in our spares today.

Ok, good, since you mentioned it we'll use this as an example.

If you single out Hectic as a good d1 spare to you, how is he NOT A GOOD SPARE IN D2? Just tell me how you can think like this and be town.

Huh? Is this a real argument?

Why would reads not evolve with the game? What?

Tell me what has hectic done to fall down in Replica's spare list, from Replica POV. Anything, just give me one thing that could validate that read shift. The only reason Hectic wasn't spared yesterday is because sherlock found a huge townslip of sujimichi and he subsequently claimed, otherwise Hectic would have been hammered with no issues at all.

I mean, I personally did not like Hectic’s d2 start saying “well we might as well spare now” without reads that seem to make sense with that plan. Replica could think any number of things. I think not understanding this is really odd and kinda reads like TMI to me, like it could be from the perspective of someone who KNOWS Hectic is town.

okay back at computer and snack attained time to read the wall let's do this

In post 1014, Amrun wrote:I mean, I personally did not like Hectic’s d2 start saying “well we might as well spare now” without reads that seem to make sense with that plan. Replica could think any number of things. I think not understanding this is really odd and kinda reads like TMI to me, like it could be from the perspective of someone who KNOWS Hectic is town.

I didn't like it either, and i pointed it out in my introductory d2 wallpost. Did replica say anything about it? No. Once he explained his reduced confidence with , not because of anything Hectic has done. This is my problem with him. But it's... really probably my fault for getting passionate against wrong approaches rather than him being scummy. I need to make peace with it, i have seen similar stuff in Normal 2106 and it turned out my favored lynch target was town too. I need to take a break and engage with other people.

Pedit: thanks chemist, please save me. Or fight me, whatever, just give me a different point of view from what we have been seeing recently

Okay I read it

The first issue I had with it is that you saying their posting was weird at EoD implies that you were scumreading them before you ISO'd them, which seems like confbias, intentional or not.

Second issue: a couple things feel like misreps, particularly you implying 392 was unexplained when there were multiple lines of reasoning in the post. 300 also didn't feel like a chainsaw because to me it pings more as trying to determine my alignment as opposed to arguing about Hectic's. If I'm reading into the context correctly, no matter who I had been sparing they would have made approximately the same post, just with the bolded switched to correctly name whoever I'd been voting

Also there's the fundamental flaw that if you think all three interactions could be SvS, you're guaranteed to be wrong on at least two of them, so that sort of calls into question the validity of the read

Fark, why did you choose to ISO those players first, in more detail?

In post 1014, Amrun wrote:I mean, I personally did not like Hectic’s d2 start saying “well we might as well spare now” without reads that seem to make sense with that plan.

hello visitor... welcome to my home...
i currently think Chara and Replica are confident town and Psyche is good town... and i assume i'm a candidate...
and i'm hoping i can find substantial town elsewhere through this day...
Farkran said something earlier about how the maths is bad for SPARING due to 2/9 chance of SPARING mafia here, and then 2/7 next day, and 2/5 that day... added on with mafia pushing to SPARE each other...
but that ignores the fact that the town are working to solve this game and don't have random reads...
there'd be no point of playing mafia if town didn't have an above baseline random chance of lynching scum/finding town with good play...
thanks for visiting...
...
when are you planning on leaving...?

In post 1017, Chemist1422 wrote:Okay I read it

The first issue I had with it is that you saying their posting was weird at EoD implies that you were scumreading them before you ISO'd them, which seems like confbias, intentional or not.

Second issue: a couple things feel like misreps, particularly you implying 392 was unexplained when there were multiple lines of reasoning in the post. 300 also didn't feel like a chainsaw because to me it pings more as trying to determine my alignment as opposed to arguing about Hectic's. If I'm reading into the context correctly, no matter who I had been sparing they would have made approximately the same post, just with the bolded switched to correctly name whoever I'd been voting

Also there's the fundamental flaw that if you think all three interactions could be SvS, you're guaranteed to be wrong on at least two of them, so that sort of calls into question the validity of the read

Fark, why did you choose to ISO those players first, in more detail?

I admit i tend to enter deathtunnels, and that's why i'm asking for different point of views. I am having an hard time with it because all the answers i'm getting are pretty much "you're wrong because you're scum, and you're scum because you're wrong" - not really helpful. Confbias though just means that part/all of my reasoning is wrong though, not the conclusions - i'm pointing this out because if you (all) can lead me to understand where my reasoning has been wrong, i could reach different conclusions or the same, depending on whether i accept the new premises that you show me.

WRT post 392, i think i expanded on it later when i was questioned about it. Post 977.

WRT post 300, you could be correct without context, but within the given context i think it is peculiar that Replica scumleans Chara at this point in time, when reading it with added future knowledge. Like, Replica seems to use Chara's unvote of Hectic to further his scumleans on it mostly because of confbias (Replica was townleaning Hectic and scumleaning Chara at the moment of post 300), but later on this feeling disappears completely for reasons that seemed unnaturally tied to how the three slots read each other. Compare this post to 607 -you can find it lower in my wall- to see an example of what i mean. This is probably more about Chara and Hectic themselves rather than Replica though.

Why i am guaranteed to be wrong on at least TWO of them, though? I would think i am wrong on at least one, potentially two or all three of them. Why exactly two? I did say that i think one of them is being deeply pocketed, but i didn't seem to gain any ground on that - i am now more inclined to believe the pocketed slot is Replica, if i am correct in saying there are 2 scum in that pool. It's just very, very hard to accept Replica's approach to this game as town, although it's... probably true. I town/scumhunt with emotional tells, as you may or may not recall from our previous game together (see my read of V&M in the magireco game hosted by tatsuya), and Replica is somewhat falling in that category. Not as much as i would like, but... arguably enough.

Lastly, i chose those 3 because they are the ones who pinged me the most. Psyche would have been included, i still scumlean him, but the readshifts of that trio are the most peculiar to me. Amrun pinged me too, but in a more towny sense, so i am willing to leave her alone until i get more content to work with. I was suspecting you for your early defense of the lurker slots - that would place you in team with Psyche though, and i don't fancy that solve anymore. Nacho and Almidia(bingle) have been mostly lurking, i am waiting for them to come back with new content, but i am townleaning Nacho due to how the reads of other players evolved around him, and i liked Almidia multipost readlist back around post 290 or something.

Farkran wrote:I admit i tend to enter deathtunnels, and that's why i'm asking for different point of views. I am having an hard time with it because all the answers i'm getting are pretty much "you're wrong because you're scum, and you're scum because you're wrong" - not really helpful. Confbias though just means that part/all of my reasoning is wrong though, not the conclusions - i'm pointing this out because if you (all) can lead me to understand where my reasoning has been wrong, i could reach different conclusions or the same, depending on whether i accept the new premises that you show me.

For what it's worth, I don't think the wallpost is that scummy actually, but I've been burned on these sorts of reads before, which is why I'm trying to follow up on it

Farkran wrote: WRT post 392, i think i expanded on it later when i was questioned about it. Post 977.

Alright, will check it out once I'm done responding

Farkran wrote:WRT post 300, you could be correct without context, but within the given context i think it is peculiar that Replica scumleans Chara at this point in time, when reading it with added future knowledge. Like, Replica seems to use Chara's unvote of Hectic to further his scumleans on it mostly because of confbias (Replica was townleaning Hectic and scumleaning Chara at the moment of post 300), but later on this feeling disappears completely for reasons that seemed unnaturally tied to how the three slots read each other. Compare this post to 607 -you can find it lower in my wall- to see an example of what i mean. This is probably more about Chara and Hectic themselves rather than Replica though.

I thought it was about my unvote of Hectic though? And I don't see how 607 is unnatural, given that Replica was already SPAREing Hectic?

Farkran wrote:Why i am guaranteed to be wrong on at least TWO of them, though? I would think i am wrong on at least one, potentially two or all three of them. Why exactly two? I did say that i think one of them is being deeply pocketed, but i didn't seem to gain any ground on that - i am now more inclined to believe the pocketed slot is Replica, if i am correct in saying there are 2 scum in that pool. It's just very, very hard to accept Replica's approach to this game as town, although it's... probably true. I town/scumhunt with emotional tells, as you may or may not recall from our previous game together (see my read of V&M in the magireco game hosted by tatsuya), and Replica is somewhat falling in that category. Not as much as i would like, but... arguably enough.

I meant two worlds, not two slots, sorry if that was unclear. What tells from Replica do you think are town?

Farkran wrote:Lastly, i chose those 3 because they are the ones who pinged me the most. Psyche would have been included, i still scumlean him, but the readshifts of that trio are the most peculiar to me. Amrun pinged me too, but in a more towny sense, so i am willing to leave her alone until i get more content to work with. I was suspecting you for your early defense of the lurker slots - that would place you in team with Psyche though, and i don't fancy that solve anymore. Nacho and Almidia(bingle) have been mostly lurking, i am waiting for them to come back with new content, but i am townleaning Nacho due to how the reads of other players evolved around him, and i liked Almidia multipost readlist back around post 290 or something.

Okay, that's fair. Can you go into more detail about the Psyche read, and are you just dropping the me/Psyche world because you're confident on the Hectic/Chara/Replica pool having scum?

In post 1018, Hectic wrote: hello visitor... welcome to my home...
i currently think Chara and Replica are confident town and Psyche is good town... and i assume i'm a candidate...
and i'm hoping i can find substantial town elsewhere through this day...
Farkran said something earlier about how the maths is bad for SPARING due to 2/9 chance of SPARING mafia here, and then 2/7 next day, and 2/5 that day... added on with mafia pushing to SPARE each other...
but that ignores the fact that the town are working to solve this game and don't have random reads...
there'd be no point of playing mafia if town didn't have an above baseline random chance of lynching scum/finding town with good play...

I'm answering this as my last post for today, 1.30 AM here, i need some sleep. I noticed i tend to get more impulsive towards nighttime, but that's your fault for having a different timezone than me i am perfect, italy is best place, etc.

Unfortunately, i still have to point out that without flips, town doesn't really gain any new info to work with, and therefore they cannot improve their reads over time except for NKA (which today isn't very helpful at all). It is true that there are plenty of games where town lynches scum d1 or d2, so town can be very good at times, but the problem is that in this game we are allowing people to get away without producing any significant scumread or placing actual votes on them. Using math to fake a townread is way easier than producing a scumcase, and in turn this also makes it harder for the true town to scumhunt based on other people's reasoning, progression, VCA, etc as you would do in a standard mafia game.

How would you scumhunt in this game, Hectic? This is a serious question. I am interested in how you arrived to the conclusion that i could be scum, and therefore you'd like to avoid sparing me in your quest for a 4-spared route. Same about Amrun or Almidia, as per post 942.

Good night everyone!

(pedit: i'll get to you tomorrow, chemist)

alright, night

if anyone else wants to discuss what I think about the wallpost I'll try not to lose 100% of my focus

Noting agreement with Farkran’s 1021.

Absolving people of having scumreads is going to kill this game.

In post 1022, Chemist1422 wrote:alright, night

if anyone else wants to discuss what I think about the wallpost I'll try not to lose 100% of my focus

I would like to know your reads instead.