Newbie 2076 [Game Over]

[MargotRosa]

margot has such extreme conviction bc sheknows if she lims me she wins

I mean, yeah. That's what happens when you lim the last scum lol

[GrandpaMo]

I'm leaning towards Margot at this point since T3's ISO does add up with his explained thought process. He's also been gradually mistrusting of me which feels natural.

I wanted to vote Margot yesterday because of N1 scum actions not adding up for anyone but her and I'm still pretty sure I'm right about that. The only thing that gives me pause is that T3 could've chosen to no-kill N1, but I'm fairly certain he never directly targets the Tracker N1 because his plan relied on the chance of there being a Doc regardless of his alignment.

Margot's Ate does seem towny tho

I might need to analyze the game.

[PenguinPower]

Vote Count 4.2

MargotRosa

(1): T3

T3

(1): MargotRosa

Not Voting

(2): GrandpaMo, Roden

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to eliminate.

Deadline

: (expired on 2021-09-16 19:37:19)

[Roden]

VOTE: Margot

I think this is just it. I really don't wanna lose because we didn't follow the logic that pointed to her just because of AtE. Unless your analysis brings up something damning about T3, I don't want to change my vote. I've reread the game so many times now and I just don't see what other info we could possibly analyze. I've asked all the questions I can think of and there's just nothing left to discuss at this point.

I'm really sorry if it isn't you Margot, I just think T3's most likely town here.

[MargotRosa]

VOTE: Margot

I think this is just it. I really don't wanna lose because we didn't follow the logic that pointed to her just because of AtE. Unless your analysis brings up something damning about T3, I don't want to change my vote. I've reread the game so many times now and I just don't see what other info we could possibly analyze. I've asked all the questions I can think of and there's just nothing left to discuss at this point.

I'm really sorry if it isn't you Margot, I just think T3's most likely town here.

Just remember, when we lose, that we lost because you thought it was more likely that I spent most of d1 aggressively bussing the scum power role than T3 decided to no kill on n1, despite the fact that it makes the game last no more days than it does currently (as proved by current game state. It would be the same ELO situation, just with 3 players rather than 4).

[Roden]

I do think it's possible T3 is scum, but his thought process here is similar to what I've seen in his past town games. Grandpa ultimately has the final word though since he's the only one that can hammer. If he thinks it's T3 I'm completely open to hearing his case, since I'm never gonna live this down if we fuck up at the end after such a strong D1.

This is my only active game atm so it's got my full attention.

[MargotRosa]

Sharing this, not necessarily because I think it will change your mind Roden, but because I'm a stats nerd and I found the thread this was posted in fascinating.

Note in the post I've linked the massive uptick for scum hammering another scum in situations where there are 5 votes needed to eliminate someone (third row down, on the right). Scum account for about one third of hammers, as opposed to around one tenth of first votes on the final wagon that results in scum elimination. In this instance, I was the first to vote for LQ in the final wagon, and T3 was the hammer.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12910844

Even statistics is on my side lol

[PenguinPower]

Prodding T3 and GrandpaMo.

[T3]

margot's plan:
scumread me
settle for a lim on a different player yesterday
go 'oh woe is me i was wrong now let's lim the real scum'

[T3]

POINT IS:
margot was setting up for autowin yesterday

[Roden]

I really need Grandpa to start posting, I'm starting to doubt myself and we're already halfway to deadline.

[MargotRosa]

I was dead set happy to be eliminated yesterday just by virtue of the fact that I had made myself so scummy that the waters were muddied lol

[MargotRosa]

I'm so mentally over this game I nearly self-hammered at least three times. Honestly, if I was scum, I probably would have. I'm currently driven only by not wanting fellow Townies to be frustrated with me at the end of first game lol

[Roden]

If Grandpa ghosts us after making us wait four days for actual content and analysis I'm gonna scream.

[GrandpaMo]

sorry

[GrandpaMo]

been busy with school

[Roden]

Oof, ok, that's understandable.

[GrandpaMo]

I really need Grandpa to start posting, I'm starting to doubt myself and we're already halfway to deadline.

ok ithink ur town. if ur scum u deserve to win

but im like 98% ur not scum

[GrandpaMo]

LQ is probably town ftr
VOTE: lq

okay wow
Hopefully he's VT or maf.
If LQ is something stupid like cop then this will be one of my top 3 mafia fals, along with the fake slip in NQN and the macho 2-shot cop.

CRINGEEEEEEEEEEEE pages 19-23&
LQ is town though.

the problem is that t3 townread lq while hammering

[GrandpaMo]

I do think it's possible T3 is scum, but his thought process here is similar to what I've seen in his past town games. Grandpa ultimately has the final word though since he's the only one that can hammer. If he thinks it's T3 I'm completely open to hearing his case, since I'm never gonna live this down if we fuck up at the end after such a strong D1.

This is my only active game atm so it's got my full attention.

smh imagine not being in like 4 games

[GrandpaMo]

Ok fine I'll just claim so we can get T3/Roden to play the game!! I am tracker, im gonna go for the night so i will probs re read game tmr afternoon or smh after work

Anyway.

That claim looks so fake by the way now looking back at it. I know hockeyfan personally, he fakeclaims A LOT.

I do remember thinking it was a bit odd that everyone took the claim at face value, when it kinda seemed like it wasn't even a serious claim to begin with. Idk

i think margot is most likely to flip town more than t3.

t3 + roden have way more scum equity than you rosa.

you remind me of my newbie game when i played ate and got solved indifferent later

[GrandpaMo]

I do think it's possible T3 is scum, but his thought process here is similar to what I've seen in his past town games. Grandpa ultimately has the final word though since he's the only one that can hammer. If he thinks it's T3 I'm completely open to hearing his case, since I'm never gonna live this down if we fuck up at the end after such a strong D1.

This is my only active game atm so it's got my full attention.

can u explain that process/

[GrandpaMo]

If anyone says Tracker should claim and then specifically mentions a Doc, it implies a Follow The Cop strat.

I've been saying this for awhile now? Why are you surprised now?

If I softed doc I genuinely don't remember
What how is that a doc soft

BTW if there is a tracker you should claim now.

Why?

If there's no Tracker then we play normally. If there is a Tracker then if there's a Jailkweper they should Jail the Tracker. If there's a FN they should target the Tracker. If there's a Doctor they should protect the Tracker.
Once day 2 hapens we massclaim.
If Doctor/FN is run up to E-1 then just claim 'PR'.

Mafias don't know if there's a FN or a Doctor.

How is this not a Doc soft? Why would I not think you were Doc here?

I think you'll just see as the game goes on. I'm sensing a spicy T3 play and scum might not be happy starting Day 2.

Okay you saying this implies that you

want

tracker to claim d1 f1? If thats true, what do u think the benefit actually is in claiming tracker d1 f1?

I can't answer this unfortunately.

Yep Roden is locktown.
SOUL MASONS

Okey dokey, here is where I am at.

I am getting strong town sense from Margot, contrary to what some others have said. It seems like she is really trying to sort -- some internal back and forth is good. I really liked 53 although I didn't check the math. It reads to me like a newbie who is really determined to put in the work.

Hockey is a town lean for me, though I disagree with the argument in 94 that withholding information is

always

anti-town. If someone is trying to bait a trap or is an investigation role who doesn't want to share results until they have a guilty, etc, there are some cases where that's good to hold back. If T3 was trying to do a spicy town play, which is totally T3, then not spelling out the details is beneficial. But the way that he's making his argument reads town, even if I disagree with it. Although I just realized it could be scum trying to get info on what the play is. Still not enough to change my read though.

T3 is probably town for the exact reason that Hockey outlined -- it's a huge gambit for scum to do right out the gate, so it seems unlikely.

Roden is null. 77 struck me as weird as well, but I don't see why scum would town lock T3 after that risky play. Then again, he then went on to walk back that town lock in 91.

Clasko and Egix are null.

The Astra slot is a sliiiiight scum lean because even with so few posts and the swift replace out, it seemed like she might have been jumping on the LQ wagon, and her RVS vote was also a wagon.

LQ -- I get a bad sense from 125. It reads a bit like complaining about getting scumread with a liiitle smidgeon of omgus, especially considering they imply that T3's gambit isn't scummy in 57 before bringing in a little more setup speculation.

The main thing that gives me pause is the very fact that LQ is a wagon already. It could be a quick and easy miselim. I also have no interest in pushing anyone to E-1 right now, so I'll leave my vote on the Astra slot for now to put a little extra fire on whoever joins in.

Roden knows exactly what is going on and he is locktown for that.

Did you think I knew you were using a strat from a completely different ongoing game?

okey
yes

I think you'll just see as the game goes on. I'm sensing a spicy T3 play and scum might not be happy starting Day 2.

Okay you saying this implies that you

want

tracker to claim d1 f1? If thats true, what do u think the benefit actually is in claiming tracker d1 f1?

I can't answer this unfortunately.

Also wanna ask SM who their two strongest elimination candidates are rn for D1, and why?
I say two, because one is most likely me which you've hinted the potential reasons for in #279 and iterating that doesn't say much.

I say Roden or you right now is my top two candidates for scum has to be you and the former is honestly better to flip than your slot. Roden elim. To me, getting some information involving the meta (of T3 and Roden) is probably more useful than eliminating you because of what some people here consider a slip.

VOTE: Roden

Even if this flips green it means we still have some sort of information, so either way I think this vote is fine.

Imagine threatening to vote a townie out because they refuse to out town power roles. This is such an overtly scummy thought process you might as well be scum claiming.

VOTE: Strange

This is the earliest I directly mention power roles wrt T3. I don't know how I can make it clearer I thought you were Doc.

okey
yes

How would I know about this strat though? I don't typically read ongoing games that I'm not a part of.

I thought you were like "hmmmmmm yes where did t3 get this strat and he won't say why
*looks at ongoing game'*
ok must be town"
VOTE: margot

what happened to this @roden?

[GrandpaMo]

licketys at E-1 lol wtf? I think from Lickety's reactions to being put at e-1 is town+. They arent panicking like scum would nor are they doing damage control(ie giving some last min scumreads to distance from thier maf partner)

Totally misunderstood what e-X rules were. Thought it meant that your vote would only count up to n-1 votes, which meant people couldn't hammer off your vote. I believe the only votes for LQ are Roden, T3 and myself, so I'll correct

VOTE: LQ e-2

its quotes like this that make margot to be town

[GrandpaMo]

I think Roden and T3 could easily be playing mindgames here. Idk. Could go either way.

also this is fun