Mini 535: Pick Your Poison 2 (Game Over!)


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Post Post #1025 (ISO) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 9:51 am

Post by Patrick »

Votecount

Setael (3) -- Ether, Yosarian2, Mizzy

Not voting: Setael, eldarad, Porochaz, scotmany12, YvonneSeer
8 alive, 5 to lynch.
Primpod 11:13 pm
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i would love to finally touch your face
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Post Post #1026 (ISO) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 9:54 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Porochaz wrote:As much as I want to agree with you, and as much as I think shes speaking bs, I think you'll find Mizzy is almost certainly confirmed town.
Oh?

Wait...right. Masons, right? Forgot about that.

Ok, never mind that stuff about fishing; all 3 pro-town roles are already outed now.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #1027 (ISO) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:03 am

Post by Mizzy »

Yosarian2 wrote:
Mizzy wrote: We'll know more after another NK, but my money is still on Poro. Some of what Yos says makes me question him (continually claiming townie really gets to me) .
...

fos:Mizzy


I never "claimed townie". Stop fishing.
Yosarian2 wrote:I don't know what Lulu was trying to do. Perhaps she was trying to draw a nightkill or something.
Whatever it was she was trying to do, it was pretty clearly a bad play made by a pro-town player.
Beyond that, your guess is as good as mine.
Note the bolded section, claiming that the person you replaced was pro-town, which is the same as you claiming pro-town directly. I don't like it. When I say townie, I usually mean pro-town, and if I say vanilla or vanilla townie, then I mean a specific role.
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Post Post #1028 (ISO) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:06 am

Post by Porochaz »

well when you are replacing, it would seem to me that you are going to refer to yourself or past self as protown. You dont go round saying well, I quite possibly could be scum...
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Post Post #1029 (ISO) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:09 am

Post by Mizzy »

Porochaz wrote:well when you are replacing, it would seem to me that you are going to refer to yourself or past self as protown. You dont go round saying well, I quite possibly could be scum...
It's assumed that everyone, if asked, would say they are pro-town. That doesn't make it true. Repeatedly mentioning it is sometimes a scumtell. That's why I don't like it.
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Post Post #1030 (ISO) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:20 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Mizzy wrote: Note the bolded section, claiming that the person you replaced was pro-town, which is the same as you claiming pro-town directly. I don't like it. When I say townie, I usually mean pro-town, and if I say vanilla or vanilla townie, then I mean a specific role.
Ah. Whenever I hear "townie", I usually assume the person is saying "vanillia townie".

Anyway, the main point of that post you're quoting was that I disagreed with the claim that "one of them must be scum"; the person I replaced was not, and I strongly believed Jdodge was town.

I'm not "claiming" pro-town, that would be silly. However, I AM pro-town; that is the one fact I know from my role PM, and of course I'm going to use that fact in all of my analysis of the game, and when explaining my thoughts I'm not afraid to say it. I hate it when people insist on going to extremes in order to pretend they don't know their own alignment, I find that completly pointless.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #1031 (ISO) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:26 am

Post by eldarad »

Well, I'm not ready to clear Porochaz just yet. However, it is also true that at least 2 scum were on his wagon yesterday.

However, Yos is my choice for scum number 3. Even in his first post today
Setael wrote:I'll agree with that, Either. vote:Setael, based on yesterday, I think she's more likely to be Gorrad's scum partner then anyone else.
he was careful to give a reason for the Setael vote even though there was no real need.
And I am convinced that LuluBelle was trying to claim weak doc yesterday before she was locked out of it by JDodge. I'm not prepared to let this go just because Yos isn't prepared to discuss/defend it on the basis on Lulu-insanity.
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Post Post #1032 (ISO) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:29 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Um, in my first post, eldarad, I hadn't yet realized Jdodge picked Setael as his target. I figured out Setael was probably Gorrad's scum partner yesterday, remember.

And where, exactally, did Lulu try to claim weak doc? Show me the post where she claimed weak doc, or stop BSing.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #1033 (ISO) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:54 am

Post by eldarad »

Yos wrote:Um, in my first post, eldarad, I hadn't yet realized Jdodge picked Setael as his target. I figured out Setael was probably Gorrad's scum partner yesterday, remember.
OK, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt here. I only knew because I kept track of all the protect claims as part of my reading the thread.
Yos wrote:And where, exactally, did Lulu try to claim weak doc? Show me the post where she claimed weak doc, or stop BSing.
No no Yos. My issue is that Lulu
tried
to claim weak doc before JD intervened.

Lulu's posts were:
1. All discussion of the weak doc is anti-town...but I can't tell you why until tomorrow
2. (and 3.) The current weak doc plan won't work

JDodge calls her on it - because
he
is the weak doc
Lulubelle wrote:Lynch me today and you'll never find out, I suppose.
What the hell is this, Yos? It's the second time Lulu has said "don't lynch me today, I'll tell you why tomorrow"

JD votes Lulu
Mizzy asks who made JD the boss of the world
Scot asks why Lulu is withholding information:
Lulu wrote:I have very good reasons. However, these are reasons I cannot say at this juncture.
Why do you think that is, Yos? What do
you
think Lulu is implying?
I
think she is implying that she is withholding information because she is the weak doc.

JD calls her out again. (It's not an overreaction, Yos - JD is the weak doc, and he's watching someone try to claim his role)

Then, Lulu specifically *doesn't* claim. But only under pressure from JD to put up or shut up.
JDodge wrote:You're hinting that you are a weak doc.

There, it's been said.

Thanks for your time.
Yosarian2 wrote:Well, whatever it was she was trying to say, she clearly wasn't trying to fake claim weak doc, since she also asked the weak doc to protect her. Which, btw, was another really, really bad play on her part, and something else I don't understand.
Oh, you mean this?
Lulubelle wrote:Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.

Dunce.

NOTE TO THE REAL WEAK DOC, IF THERE IS ONE
: Please protect me tonight.
How does this post undo the previous 5 or 6 posts? How does this post compensate for outing the real weak doc?
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Post Post #1034 (ISO) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 11:12 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

eldarad wrote: No no Yos. My issue is that Lulu
tried
to claim weak doc before JD intervened.
She really didn't, although Jdodge game to that incorrect conclusion, and foolishisly outed himself because of that..
Lulu's posts were:
1. All discussion of the weak doc is anti-town...but I can't tell you why until tomorrow
2. (and 3.) The current weak doc plan won't work[/qutoe]

Well, generally speaking, you know, any discussion of a doctor is anti-town. I don't think it was in that situation, but it's not a strange thing to say.

As for the rest..I have no idea. I can only guess that she had some stratagy involving the weak doc that she didn't want to share yet because she didn't want to tip off the scum. None of that means she was implying she was the weak doc. I wish she was still around so she could tell us what stratagy she had in mind; I'm as much in the dark there as you are.

In fact, note that right BEFORE that posts you're speaking of, the very post before it in fact, she said this:
lulu wrote: Theory #2: The scum did not give us a doc or a weak doc. They no killed last night to make us think otherwise so that when the vig that they really gave us is put under pressure and claims, we will do to him exactly what we did to skitzer.

Just throwing it out there. I don't see it as likely, because giving up a kill is a tough choice, but I also can't see a way to rule it out.
Does that sound to you like someone who's about to claim weak doc?
Lulubelle wrote:Lynch me today and you'll never find out, I suppose.
...
Lulu wrote:I have very good reasons. However, these are reasons I cannot say at this juncture.
(nods) Yeah. Like I said, like I noticed myself during my read-through, there's a few strange looking posts in there . Again, I can only guess that she had some weak-doc stratagy that she thought the town should use today, during day 3, and didn't want to talk about it before that point.
Why do you think that is, Yos? What do
you
think Lulu is implying?
I
think she is implying that she is withholding information because she is the weak doc.
Well, you're wrong. :lol:

If you read her quotes carefully, you can see that what she was saying was not that SHE didn't want to claim, but that there was some deep stratigic reason why it's better for there to not be a weak doc claim before day 3 but that she didn't want to explain what that was until day 3.
JD calls her out again. (It's not an overreaction, Yos - JD is the weak doc, and he's watching someone try to claim his role)
Well, except in this case it is an overreaction, because he misinterprets Lulu's stratigic suggestions as a claim, and gave his role away. It's not surprisng that he was jumpy, though, considering the overextended position he put himself in by hypo-weak doc claiming when not everyone had agreed to it yet.
How does this post undo the previous 5 or 6 posts? How does this post compensate for outing the real weak doc?
She didn't out the weak doc. The weak doc outed himself, because he misinterpreted her posts. If you go back and read her posts yourself, I think you'll realize that.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #1035 (ISO) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 11:14 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Darn quote tags...edit by way of post, that one part should have read like this:

Lulu's posts were:
1. All discussion of the weak doc is anti-town...but I can't tell you why until tomorrow
2. (and 3.) The current weak doc plan won't work
Well, generally speaking, you know, any discussion of a doctor is anti-town. I don't think it was in that situation, but it's not a strange thing to say.

As for the rest..I have no idea. I can only guess that she had some stratagy involving the weak doc that she didn't want to share yet because she didn't want to tip off the scum. None of that means she was implying she was the weak doc. I wish she was still around so she could tell us what stratagy she had in mind; I'm as much in the dark there as you are.

In fact, note that right BEFORE that posts you're speaking of, the very post before it in fact, she said this:
lulu wrote: Theory #2: The scum did not give us a doc or a weak doc. They no killed last night to make us think otherwise so that when the vig that they really gave us is put under pressure and claims, we will do to him exactly what we did to skitzer.

Just throwing it out there. I don't see it as likely, because giving up a kill is a tough choice, but I also can't see a way to rule it out.
Does that sound to you like someone who's about to claim weak doc?
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #1036 (ISO) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 11:25 am

Post by Ether »

Post 1020, Mizzy wrote:We'll know more after another NK,
No...we won't know a thing.
Post 1024, Yosarian wrote:Not to mention, Mizzy, I'm not sure how you could read the day yesterday and come to the conclusion that Sestal and Porochez are likely to be scum together.
Please elaborate. (I keep waffling on Porochaz and his interactions with Setael. I'd be at his throat, but with the encryptor, I'm just confused.)

Who do
you
think is the third scumbag?
Post 1033, Eldarad wrote:I only knew because I kept track of all the protect claims as part of my reading the thread.
Er, reference question--who claimed to protect whom on Night 1?
As I move my vote
Towards your wagon, town is taking note
It fills my head up and gets louder and
LOUDER
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Post Post #1037 (ISO) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 11:39 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Ether wrote:Please elaborate. (I keep waffling on Porochaz and his interactions with Setael. I'd be at his throat, but with the encryptor, I'm just confused.)
Sure. I got the very strong impression that Setael was trying to get Porochaz lynched yesterday in order to protect Gorrad.
For example, right after I replaced in and put together a quite detailed and strong attack against Gorrad, her response was this:
Setael wrote:I feel like someone(s) are distracting from the Porochaz wagon. I've looked over the last several days and see no reason for him to be wiggling out of this lynch. If Porochaz isn't lynched today, I'm not going to trust him all game.

I'm also feeling better about Yvonne and worse about Lulu/Yos2.

unvote, vote: Porochaz
This was the post I kept coming back to yesterday; it really felt like she was attacking me because I attacked Gorrad, trying to imply that everything else was just a "distraction" for the Porochaz wagon, and voting Porochaz. This was the point when I was starting to wonder if Setael and Gorrad were scum together, and if she was trying to protect him by pushing the Porochaz wagon instead.

Then, later in the day, when it was becoming more and more obveous Gorrad was going to be lynched, Seatal was trying harder and harder to link Gorrad and Porochez together; makes me thing that she knew Gorrad was scum, and wanted to make Porochez look bad after Gorrad got lynched.

SHe was really going back and fourth all day between defending Gorrad and trying to link Gorrad and Porochez together. For example, in this post, she strangly tries to do both at once:

Setael wrote:I have a hard time believing that scum would hammer the cop the way gorrad did, since scum would know skitzer was about to come up cop and would therefore know how bad that would look. The link between Gorrad and Porochaz is clear and I actually think there’s a good chance they’re both scum, especially after this post where it’s odd that he’d vote me (with no reason other than my suspicion of him) over Gorrad who is his main competing wagon.
Porochaz wrote:I feel suspicous... and unloved...
vote Setael
I could easily vote for Gorrad as well for the same reasons, or Yvonne because Im never going to let this go... I do have a 5 page reread to do if Im allowed, but meh if Im not...
I guess it could go the other way as well - if chaz is scum and knows Gorrad is going to come up town, Porochaz would want to stay off the Gorrad wagon if he thinks Gorrad could get lynched without his help, which seems likely. Either way I think chaz is scum and as I said, the whole gorrad wagon feels like distraction from a porochaz lynch.
Then she goes back to attacking me because I was attacking Gorrad, and trying to imply that the whole Gorrad wagon was just an attempt to distract from the Porochez wagon:
Setael wrote:
Yos wrote:If you think that, Setael, then why, exactally, did you say you are "more suspicious" of me now after my analyis where I came to that very conclusion you're now agreeing with?
Can you clarify this? I'm not sure what you mean. I am suspicious of you because, looking back, if scum tried to distract from a Porochaz lynch by turning the attention to Gorrad, you are one of the main contenders.

And then, finally, she goes back to implying that the two of them are linked, while giving an excuse why she dosn't want to hammer Gorrad herself.
Setael wrote:Porochaz is active on the site and appears to be posting everywhere but here. The only reason I can think he would be unwilling to hammer Gorrad is if they are scum together, which would also explain his OMGUS vote on me. Since they're likely both scum, I'm with scotmany on being willing to hammer, but I'd rather see Porochaz do it.
So, I'm pretty sure that if Setael is scum, Porochaz is town; she was trying way too hard to either get him lynched in order to proect Gorrad or, failing that, to link him and Gorrad together in such a way that a Gorrad lynch would make Porochaz look bad.

Who do
you
think is the third scumbag?
Now that is a good question. I don't really know at the moment; I'm mostly trying to rule people out right now.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #1038 (ISO) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 12:09 pm

Post by eldarad »

Ether wrote:Er, reference question--who claimed to protect whom on Night 1?
JDodge - if he was the weak doc he would have protected Bookitty
Bookitty - if she was the weak doc she would have protected
one of Ether, Setael,
JDodge
Ether - if she was the weak doc she would have protected Bookitty
Porochaz - if he was the weak doc he would have protected one of {JDodge, Bookitty}
Gorrad - if he was the weak doc he would have protected Ether
Scotmany - if he was the weak doc he would have protected JDodge
Setael - if she was the weak doc she would have protected Bookitty
Jordan - if he was the weak doc he would have protected Yvonne
Yosarian/LuluBelle - if he was the weak doc he would have protected Bookitty
YvonneSeer - if she was the weak doc she would have protected Ether
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Post Post #1039 (ISO) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 1:34 pm

Post by scotmany12 »

Just chiming in here will quick. Yos I would disagree with you that jd outed himself. If he did, the scum would have know this, and then would have chose to not nk(or kill jd) leaving the town to question themselves. Since there are two nk's, and no vig, Bookitty had to be the nk, and jd had to die by protecting seatel.
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Post Post #1040 (ISO) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 1:45 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

That is true. The scum probably suspected JD was the doc, but they probably didn't compeltly know it. Either that, or they figured Sestal was doomed no matter what, and figured they might as well take out a confirmed innocent instead of trying to save her. (shrug)

One other minor point is that the scum have to be someone who were willing to give the town both a cop and a doctor, which seems to me to be an incredibly dangerous move on their part. That was part of the reason I was so sure Jdodge was town, was because I know he's too experenced to make a mistake like that; I would tend to think that anyone with his amount of mafiascum experence would not want to risk facing a doc/cop combo in a mini game, those can be incredibly effective. Not sure how much that helps us figure out who the third scum is, but I figured I might as well mention it.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #1041 (ISO) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 1:47 pm

Post by Ether »

Yosarian, I see your point on Porochaz.

Ever, who's scum?
As I move my vote
Towards your wagon, town is taking note
It fills my head up and gets louder and
LOUDER
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Post Post #1042 (ISO) » Sun Mar 02, 2008 1:58 pm

Post by scotmany12 »

I'm leaning towards eldarad as the last scum ether.
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Post Post #1043 (ISO) » Mon Mar 03, 2008 9:26 am

Post by YvonneSeer »

I still think Porochaz is the last scum.
[i]The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised.[/i]
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Post Post #1044 (ISO) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 8:43 am

Post by eldarad »

Does that mean we're done talking already?
Because if no-one has anything else to say let's just lynch Setael and see what tomorrow brings.
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Post Post #1045 (ISO) » Tue Mar 04, 2008 8:47 am

Post by Porochaz »

Well I was waiting for Setael to post, Im going to give her 24 hours
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Post Post #1046 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 5:28 am

Post by Mizzy »

So, here's some random ponderings of mine. They're just thoughts, though I'd like to know what people think before we hammer.

The people that would have protected Bookitty night 1, according to eldarad's list:

JDodge - if he was the weak doc he would have protected Bookitty
Ether - if she was the weak doc she would have protected Bookitty
Porochaz - if he was the weak doc he would have protected one of {JDodge, Bookitty}
Setael - if she was the weak doc she would have protected Bookitty
Yosarian/LuluBelle - if he was the weak doc he would have protected Bookitty

We know that whoever was protected N1 was confirmed town. We know that Bookitty was indeed vanilla townie, and that JDodge was the doc. Looking at this list, why would they have killed a confirmed townie INSTEAD of killing the weak doc?

Out of the list above, JD and Ether are confirmed pro-town. That leaves Setael, Lulu/Yos, and Poro on Bookitty as well. Only two of those three CAN be scum because we killed the third scummer already.

Firstly, it seems really convenient that these three keep appearing in circles and trends together. If two of the three of them are scum, then one MUST be town. Scum would want to protect the encryptor most of all because as long as two live, they can daytalk. It seems to me that they would go out of their way to hide that power role, even if it meant giving up someone else.

Godfather was the least painful to lose because with the cop dead, he's not useful now. Easy sacrifice.

I guess my question is this:

Scum know they targeted Bookitty N1 and saw who all claimed protecting her. Through elmination on D2, they could have narrowed the weak doc identity down to JDodge, Ether, Setael, Lulu/Yos, or Poro. If any of those are scum, they would know, and eliminate those possibilities, too.

So really, WHY did they target Bookitty and not someone else who COULD have been the doc, opening themselves up to having one of them exposed as scum by that weak doc last night?

If, for some reason, JDodge made a mistake and did not suicide on Setael last night (we will find out when she hangs) then Yos and Poro are who we should look at.
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Post Post #1047 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 8:58 am

Post by Yosarian2 »

Mizzy wrote:So, here's some random ponderings of mine. They're just thoughts, though I'd like to know what people think before we hammer.

The people that would have protected Bookitty night 1, according to eldarad's list:

JDodge - if he was the weak doc he would have protected Bookitty
Ether - if she was the weak doc she would have protected Bookitty
Porochaz - if he was the weak doc he would have protected one of {JDodge, Bookitty}
Setael - if she was the weak doc she would have protected Bookitty
Yosarian/LuluBelle - if he was the weak doc he would have protected Bookitty

We know that whoever was protected N1 was confirmed town. We know that Bookitty was indeed vanilla townie, and that JDodge was the doc. Looking at this list, why would they have killed a confirmed townie INSTEAD of killing the weak doc?
My guess would be, becuse they knew Jdodge was going to suicide on Setael, and they also knew that I and others were going to go after Setael hard today no matter what, so rather then waste a kill in a vain attempt to save her they decided to take out one of the confirmeds. Remember, there were 3 confirmed townies as of yesterday; Jdodge's protect target, AND the two masons. That's a lot of confirmed innocents the scum needed to nightkill in order to have any chance of winning.

[quote[
Firstly, it seems really convenient that these three keep appearing in circles and trends together. If two of the three of them are scum, then one MUST be town. Scum would want to protect the encryptor most of all because as long as two live, they can daytalk. It seems to me that they would go out of their way to hide that power role, even if it meant giving up someone else. [/quote]

Huh? None of the scum power roles seem especally relevent, I've never found the ability for scum to daytalk to be especally relevent most of the time. I'm really not sure what you're trying to say here in any case; could you clarify?
So really, WHY did they target Bookitty and not someone else who COULD have been the doc, opening themselves up to having one of them exposed as scum by that weak doc last night?
If, for some reason, JDodge made a mistake and did not suicide on Setael last night (we will find out when she hangs) then Yos and Poro are who we should look at.
That's a pretty unlikely scenerio. Assume Setael is scum, which she pretty obveously is. Who's her scum partner likely to be?
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Porochaz
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Post Post #1048 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 9:04 am

Post by Porochaz »

Ok Im away for the next couple of hours... rather than putting someone at L-1 with discussion still to be had, Im going to leave it for tonight.
Mostly retired. Unless you ask or it's something interesting.
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Post Post #1049 (ISO) » Wed Mar 05, 2008 10:37 am

Post by eldarad »

Yos wrote:Assume Setael is scum, which she pretty obveously is. Who's her scum partner likely to be?
I agree with this sentiment, but I think we can have this discussion more productively tomorrow once we *know* that Setael is scum.

vote Setael
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