Open 731: Twin Trap (Game Over)

[Almost50]

Actually 1023 is like me playing on a Poker slot machine and having just won a hand I'm doubling down on picking the correct highest card of 5. Those were the days. (I almost never won though, but I had a friend who almost never lost even if he did it 3 times, so he would end up winning 8 times what he started with).

P-edit: COOL. Let's see what Wh4t thinks then.

[BuJaber]

I don't like 5-card draw. Hold'em is where it's at.

[Almost50]

Yes, Hold'em is the game, but if you win you get 5 uncovered cards (was it 5 or 4?) and then you try to guess the highest of them, and if you do your winnings are doubled. If you lose you forfeit your winnings.

[BuJaber]

Ah I see.. yeah that sounds like something I would not enjoy.

[Almost50]

Or maybe you get one flipped card and 4 unflipped and try to pick one that is higher than the flipped one? It's been over 20 years now so my memory isn't serving me when, especially since I prefer Black Jack over Poker (both live and slots)

[Wh4t]

Town BuJaber wouldn't pull that gambit ime. He's either tracker or scum.

Scum??? You think scum would be trying to bait a Tracker CC when they've already shot the Watcher? Like, the Tracker immune goon can do all their kills safely while the other just enjoys the ride.

Let's see.. why won't they just lynch ME today and shoot YOU tonight? You're the one being vocal about BuJ being a suspect. Explain that move from a scum perspective and I might reconsider.

A50 I'm glad you're here. You misunderstood, I was replying to Tor, I believe Bu's claim. Tor was trying to say the result was fake and Bu could be a VT so I'm saying no he's tracker or scum no two ways about it.

If you're town it's Burger. Unlikely to be Pose with how quickly Tor jumped on his wagon yesterday.

[Wh4t]

in before you're the one who replaced into a mafia slot

Possible scumslip?

ugh this is something personal with wh4t and idk, maybe she can clarify? anyway it refers to a past conversation we had privately and I understand how it looks weird without context

Easy claim, not convinced.

READS

Burger/A50/Buj

Egg/Tor/Eragon

Fro/Wh4t

if only I had randed PR instead.

Actually this is pretty bad. Pose shades Tor > Null reads him.

[Wh4t]

I'm going to let you answer your own question there pal. I
Here's my updated reads based on recent interactions:

{A50, BuJaber, Eragon, GnB}
{Fromage, Egg}
{Toranaga, Poseidon}

Pretty happy with the L-1 and ready to see a flip but I would like to hear Tor's efforting before someone hammers.

"they're wolfreading me so they must be a wolf!"

poseidon's interactions with wh4t are pretty villagery from poseidon's side and if wh4t was even remotely trying to solve the game instead of OMGUSing everyone who scumreads her she'd have picked up on that.

this is openwolfing and it's really really poor effort at that.

Tor defending Pose, before he jumps on his wagon with the explanation of "I don't know what possessed me to townread him"

[Wh4t]

GNB, why do you think it's a "weird" gambit to claim VT as VT when at L-1? what part of claiming VT is a gambit, anyway?

Ok fine it's not burger D:

[Wh4t]

He didn’t buy it and it totally does

That and when you said to not resubmit it’s a bit obvious

I actually bought it, I didn't remember eragon was voting me

Not burger....

Pose + Tor interactions:

Spoiler:

VOTE: poseidon

Alright Poseidon train! Let me get all caught up before you set me ablaze please.

this never happened

catch up before we set you ablaze please

I got caught up in something but still around

wh4t: WRT poseidon's posting near hammer, it looks genuine. his posting otherwise has been pretty poor, he only showed up to defend himself and promised reads he never made. he is probably never town PR if he is town cause he just invited the lynch without claiming or softing anything as well. if you're legitimately townreading poseidon for that, you're disregarding two weeks of mafia playing to townread fakeable emotions someone is having near lynch. his activity is the most telling thing about his slot and it's wolfy. poseidon is definitely around lurking because he conveniently shows up when he is a wagon, and then he disappears again when heat gets off him. there's no interest in solving the game. he is voting your slot since inferno was playing and never reevaluated on it, which is pretty telling.

I got caught up in something but still around

wh4t: WRT poseidon's posting near hammer, it looks genuine. his posting otherwise has been pretty poor, he only showed up to defend himself and promised reads he never made. he is probably never town PR if he is town cause he just invited the lynch without claiming or softing anything as well. if you're legitimately townreading poseidon for that, you're disregarding two weeks of mafia playing to townread fakeable emotions someone is having near lynch. his activity is the most telling thing about his slot and it's wolfy. poseidon is definitely around lurking because he conveniently shows up when he is a wagon, and then he disappears again when heat gets off him. there's no interest in solving the game. he is voting your slot since inferno was playing and never reevaluated on it, which is pretty telling.

I mean, I’m phoneposting unless it’s after 9pm (pacific time) and it’s a hassle to post from phone as we all know. But yeah totally call it convenient showing up. I’ve only been wagoned once now? Haven’t “disappeared” once the heat is off.

And now wh4t is just aiming at you for sake of ending d1 with no solid backing? If wh4t wasn’t scum, then why the hurry to get on a wagon? I realize I just complained about nothing happening; sue me. I’m not changing up my votes just to end the day.

you disappeared right before wh4t and a50 shifted from you and just posted again now that I cased you. so you're definitely around and you're reading but only posting to defend yourself.

also you promised to read the game and post your thoughts yes? are you going to do that?

Hmm. Will have to relook at egg perhaps.

[Poseidon]

Absent tonight, be back in the AM

Just because I don't SR someone hard, doesn't mean I don't think it's not possible. Try to not think too hard and hurt yourself, A50 & Wh4t.

I can't stand this indecision

Married with a lack of vision

Everybody needs to state a case
(and I mean a real one now if you want me to follow your vote).

Here poseidon.

Oh damn WAY back with the cryptic poem/lyrics. So, we get one inkling of LAMIST and a plethora of scum actions.

Spoiler:

41 - Early wagon pushing
216 - Opportunistic for inactivity (regardless of read)
348 - Attempting to hammer on a town claim with no proof, even though there were 5 VT's in total at the time, thinking it would give us some kind of safer alternative, when it really just throws the game more in favor of scum if there's a townflip
355 - claims to have given reads on most everyone, when (up to this post) there was only ONE post about such (176)
370 - Reconfirms hammering a VT claim
435 - Unvotes on someone he's been threatening hard with a hammer
482 - Enter the Eragon wagon which is backed up by "he's been townie but this one post seems really scummy"
Need I go on?

There we go. An explicit scum claim.

"Attempting to hammer a town claim" doesn't go with any logic knowing Tor IS scum not Town. Why would you even assume a "Town flip" there when BuJ has already claimed a guilty? And how would my push to hammer SCUM be considered "scummy"??

Oh, yes please.. do go on.

It's not assuming a town flip, it's waiting for the off chance of a counter claim. We do not know any roles 100% until a lynch happens so why are you so quick to take anyone's word for anything? Your push was on D1 with no proof towards anything, so while it may have been a good push in retrospect; you also went into kill-mode when you decided that Eragon was guaranteed scum. How did that work out for you? Oh right, you lead the charge into killing a VT, exactly what you were prattling on about all D1

in before you're the one who replaced into a mafia slot

Possible scumslip?

ugh this is something personal with wh4t and idk, maybe she can clarify? anyway it refers to a past conversation we had privately and I understand how it looks weird without context

Easy claim, not convinced.

READS

Burger/A50/Buj

Egg/Tor/Eragon

Fro/Wh4t

if only I had randed PR instead.

Actually this is pretty bad. Pose shades Tor > Null reads him.

idk what a null read is to you guys, but to me it's "not sold they're scum, but definitely not sure if town".

[Poseidon]

Gonna be gone all tonight, be back in the AM

[Almost50]

Attempting to hammer on a town claim with no proof, even though there were 5 VT's in total at the time, thinking it would give us some kind of safer alternative, when it really just throws the game more in favor of scum

if there's a townflip

So, this is

not

assuming a Town flip?? You only get it to say it one way or the other. Either I'm scum "assuming Tor flips Town" (which is calling BuJ's claim a lie as well); OR I'm scum

with

Tor so I

know

he was flipping scum and was waiting for a CC... WAIT! WHAT?? A counter claim to a VT claim?? Are you ok? Have you been drinking??

[Wh4t]

Once egg posts I say we end the day.

[Almost50]

Once egg posts I say we end the day.

OK, but do we lynch Tor (which the "normal" play) or do we lynch Poseidon (which is "my" way)? Me and BuJ would rather do the latter for the fun of it. We get to win tomorrow either way.

[Almost50]

Come to think of it, I'm assuming Wh4t would rather lynch the guilty today just to be sure. I mean, I could still be scum with BuJ and we want a mislynch on Poseidon today so we can be in LyLo tomorrow with a guaranteed lynch on Tor. After all, BuJ does NOT have to be the NK tonight since he's effectively a VT now.

[Wh4t]

It's not so much to be sure as it is that I want to hear from Egg soon and don't want to spend another day chasing my tail getting confused by everyone. Scum have to shoot BuJaber to stay hidden imo, if they shoot someone else they risk outting themselves.

A50 can you please make a case on Pose?

[Almost50]

Come on! Have you been reading my posts today? I pretty much cased Egg for Town and Poseidon for scum by VC analysis, and by analyzing Poseidon's posts today. Him instantly jumping on Tor then asking why >I< choose to believe everything so fast? Him saying me wanting to hammer Tor was scummy "in case of a town flip" then saying I was waiting for a CC (Tor had claimed VT and the post Poseidon's referring to was telling Tor I would hammer him when he confirms the claim). There's so much more in my ISO for D2.

NVM all that.. look at this:

@BuJab

If he flips town, you’re up tomorrow.

VOTE: Toranaga

Don't you think is a n00b scumster trying too hard o look like townie? It goes w/o saying that if Tor flips green BuJ will get lynched next, so why the warning? It's called LAMIST.

Two posts later:

Don’t hammer yet, anyone (sorry for multipost). Still time to discuss

Still LAMIST. Why put caught scum @L-1 then ask nobody hammers? Tor could've easily hammered if he wanted to!

I mean, I dunno what else to say, but I can't see past Poseidon being scum here over GnB and Egg, and by a great margin too.

[Wh4t]

Ok ty. I guess we just need to make sure everyone is in agreement with the play. I don't want to leave two scum with the possibility of swaying one townie at Lylo. Everyone has to voice agreement to lynching Tor tomorrow.

[Toranaga]

I'll love spending another day with you guys <3

[Wh4t]

Egg when you're on can you please confirm that you do not CC the tracker claim?

[Toranaga]

kinda scummy of egg to not even show up

[Almost50]

There are 2 scenarios:

1- Poseidon flips red (Which is what I'm expecting) = BuJaber "may" stay alive overnight (because him flipping Tracker confirms Tor as scum beyond any shred of doubt, so it's game over).

2- Poseidon flips green (very very VERY unlikely, so I'm including this just for theory) = BuJaber "most likely" stays alive and scum will argue he is faking (this is the scenario you may be afraid of).

But that means we have BuJaber alive to vote Tor, and either you or me (or both to spread the WIFOM). Let's assume you are the NK, then we have BuJ, myself, Egg and GnB to vote Tor. If Poseidon flips scum there will be virtually no resistance to the lynch bc the town will still have a mislynch anyway AND BuJaber is scum by virtue of faking a guilty.

If Poseidon flips Town though then we have narrowed down the suspects list according to our own will (you, me and BuJ) and Tor will have to be lynched still (his p cannot resist the lynch or he will be outed) and then BuJ eats a bullet on N3 and it's up to me to decide between GnB and Egg on D4. (Note: I'd vote GnB over Egg).

Now let's assume the unlikely (Poseidon flips Town) and then the unlikely (they shoot me instead of you), then you have control on D4.

Or maybe they shoot me on N3 and leave BuJ (the confirmed townie by then) to decide between the two.

But that's a step beyond what you're asking. If your worry is about the Tot lynch he will be lynched in all cases.

And if you find a loophole in this narrative then we just lynch Tor today and Poseidon tomorrow. I just proposed Poseidon today bc (a) U feel confident he is the other scum, and (b) because I'm crazy and I love to play unorthodox.

[Almost50]

@Wh4t: And btw, I have a little something to admit to... even though I am town in this game, I'm still trying to mess with your mind a li'l so it won't be easier for you to read me in our next game together. This plan of mine is a bit scummy; nut when it unfolds and Poseidon flips red you will become more accepting of my weird approach to game theory, so the next time I roll scum in a game you're in you'd be more reluctant to suspect me for saying/doing something you deem strange or scummy!

[Wh4t]

I just don't see the advantage to risking a mislynch today? I mean if we lynch Tor then we confirm 100% Bu is town, we have more townies to help narrow down the scumteam, and we have the comfort of a mislynch tomorrow.

It may be more fun to play in the less optimal way you propose but we'd be tilting the advantage in scum's favour and I would hate to become so overconfident in my reads that I gamble away the inevitable victory we would've had by playing traditionally.

My extreme paranoia of you is saying that it is still possible you're scum with Tor, and you are tilting the odds in your favour (by keeping town in Lylo) because it is unlikely you will be lynched if you dictate the play today.