Raw, Unfiltered, UPICK Game Over !

[Marky Mark]

I... see where you're coming from but I feel like there's no scenario where we don't end up needing to eliminate grendel at some point.

I'm wondering what's the cost/benefit on "give him a chance and vote him out tomorrow if he doesn't follow through".

I mean in the worst case scenario grendel is scum vig and offs another townie tonight, them we kill him tomorrow? Do the numbers on that look even remotely favorable for town to the extent that it's worth it to risk that scenario?

I guess worst worst case scenario is that grendel is a scum vig and he shoots grey or titus or someone tonight at your urging, he goes "oh oops guess we were wrong" but manages to pass himself off as townie. I kinda think in that scenario we have to eliminate him no matter what, so we might as well get it over with today. Not convinced it's worth it to let him live. Sorry grendel :'( but I'm open to being convinced otherwise, I guess.

I agree the cost/benefit analysis is worth thinking through. I also think that this all paints math as pretty town as why would you fake a guilty to then be open to letting someone off the hook.

Replacing inactive players like NK15 will help as a lot of the player posting regularly feel like townbloc to me.

[Marky Mark]

I'll be the first to say that I am not as experienced with PR mechanics/optimal play as many of you, but it seems weird not to crumb the intended target in some way as a vig prior to the night phase, even if not the role itself for exactly the reasons that we have run into.

[Marky Mark]

I guess someone has to have made the second kill. Scum vig is possible, although an uncommon role. SK also possible, but unlikely given mistyx's possible info/role, so some sort of town killing role feels v possible (also, why would scum kill fidget/kop when its an easy miselim for them to make)

The silence from such a role CCing makes me think there's a decent chance that grendel!scum here.

[GreyICE]

I'll be the first to say that I am not as experienced with PR mechanics/optimal play as many of you, but it seems weird not to crumb the intended target in some way as a vig prior to the night phase, even if not the role itself for exactly the reasons that we have run into.

wat

[GreyICE]

no that's literally not a thing

[GreyICE]

hey you joined in 2014 right

have u evah seen a vig crumb a target

like once

really once is all i want to see, just one time

[Marky Mark]

Joined in 2014, played a couple of games, came back late 2020 due to covid limiting my pastime choices

It seems like logical thing to me to do, so.that after the event you can semi prove you are who you say you are, but I accept that I could be wrong

Phoneposting

[Grendel]

@gray

Why are you refusing to engage me?

[Grendel]

I guess someone has to have made the second kill. Scum vig is possible, although an uncommon role. SK also possible, but unlikely given mistyx's possible info/role, so some sort of town killing role feels v possible (also, why would scum kill fidget/kop when its an easy miselim for them to make)

The silence from such a role CCing makes me think there's a decent chance that grendel!scum here.

How does a lack of a cc mean I'm scum?

Isn't it usally the opposite?

[MathBlade]

I think a lack of CC would make Grendel a vig. The difference is town or scum

The other issue I have is there are inactive slots so the roleblock could have been puppetted asking Gamma he said scum could do that

So I wanna wait and see how the replacements take to the game. I think an outside set of eyes would be good.

[Marky Mark]

I think a lack of CC would make Grendel a vig.

It's evidence towards it. It could just be that grendel is scum and there's no town vig in the setup, but then where does the extra kill come from?

[GreyICE]

@gray

Why are you refusing to engage me?

No point. Anti-town to discuss anything with you, only gives your team information for future days.

We won't speak again until the post game.

[GreyICE]

I think a lack of CC would make Grendel a vig. The difference is town or scum

The other issue I have is there are inactive slots so the roleblock could have been puppetted asking Gamma he said scum could do that

So I wanna wait and see how the replacements take to the game. I think an outside set of eyes would be good.

Math

MAAAAAATTTTHHHH

You know this claim was to out the vig. Or from an SK, who cares. You have a result, they claimed a killing role.

I know it's always tempting to go "what if". What if something happened? What if something went wrong. What if? What if? This is a game of infinite possibilities.

Day 2 guilty, claimed killing role, you know how this plays. I know you like thinking of possibilities, but there's a reason these rules exist. They've been codified from the losses of towns who decided that "yep, that's a fine reason to be guilty, seems credible to me."

[MathBlade]

I think a lack of CC would make Grendel a vig.

It's evidence towards it. It could just be that grendel is scum and there's no town vig in the setup, but then where does the extra kill come from?

From Grendel. Which would make him more than likely not a town vig rather than a scum one.

It could be possible this is to out the vig.

But if vig then claims then we have in essence two elims today. One hits scum Grendel then vig shot hits another person tonight.

[GreyICE]

I think a lack of CC would make Grendel a vig.

It's evidence towards it. It could just be that grendel is scum and there's no town vig in the setup, but then where does the extra kill come from?

From Grendel. Which would make him more than likely not a town vig rather than a scum one.

It could be possible this is to out the vig.

But if vig then claims then we have in essence two elims today. One hits scum Grendel then vig shot hits another person tonight.

If the scum don't have a redirector. Bus driver. Ability copier. Any one of the lovely abilities they can have in a role madness setup that make knowing who the vig is stupidly fucking useful for them.

[GreyICE]

Like, we just flipped a town roleblocker. Unless Gamma really likes dueling roleblockers in his mini theme, what are the odds that the scum "fuck with abilities so the town can't rely on them 100%" role is something OTHER than a roleblocker?

High.

[GreyICE]

Also with the flipped town roleblocker, what are the odds your ability actually got roleblocked last night?

[GreyICE]

'cause Jake definitely didn't roleblock you.

[MathBlade]

I think a lack of CC would make Grendel a vig.

It's evidence towards it. It could just be that grendel is scum and there's no town vig in the setup, but then where does the extra kill come from?

From Grendel. Which would make him more than likely not a town vig rather than a scum one.

It could be possible this is to out the vig.

But if vig then claims then we have in essence two elims today. One hits scum Grendel then vig shot hits another person tonight.

If the scum don't have a redirector. Bus driver. Ability copier. Any one of the lovely abilities they can have in a role madness setup that make knowing who the vig is stupidly fucking useful for them.

Yes it is possible scum have those things.

However if Grendel is town then scum would have to have TWO of those things.

[MathBlade]

There are only three scum in the whole game.

We wait on replacements and see their responses.

I will not budge on this.

[GreyICE]

I think a lack of CC would make Grendel a vig.

It's evidence towards it. It could just be that grendel is scum and there's no town vig in the setup, but then where does the extra kill come from?

From Grendel. Which would make him more than likely not a town vig rather than a scum one.

It could be possible this is to out the vig.

But if vig then claims then we have in essence two elims today. One hits scum Grendel then vig shot hits another person tonight.

If the scum don't have a redirector. Bus driver. Ability copier. Any one of the lovely abilities they can have in a role madness setup that make knowing who the vig is stupidly fucking useful for them.

Yes it is possible scum have those things.

However if Grendel is town then scum would have to have TWO of those things.

Or they night kill you, and "oops, something happened".

[GreyICE]

Like the odds of "oops something happened" being in Grendel's first post tomorrow are exactly equal to 1 - [Chance Grendel dies before next day phase]

[MathBlade]

Yes that is a possibility but not a probability.
Give me a bit to work my magic here worse comes to worse you’re right and we elim Grendel.

There is no harm in forcing replacements to play or waiting for them.

[GreyICE]

Mathblade, I've literally rushed nothing. I've told you explicitly (I believe) and if not I'm telling you now - I'm ready to end this day phase if and when you are.

What I am telling you is to keep a clear lighthouse of the path forward. Nothing has changed because we're waiting on replacements and answering your questions. One of the reasons lurking is so powerful for scum is the old equation that Paranoia+Time to Think = New Theory. And if you lurk long enough for the town to hit on a pro-scum theory, then you can pop up and say "yep, that's it!"

[Jesse Pierce]

I'm busy. Not reading all those pages closely but I from what I've skimmed, it's between Grendel and Math?
I think Math is scummier but depending on mech, that could change.