Open 806: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[Bridgeburners]

Muahaha, just like I planned, I get to push the PR as a lim option AND get towncred for it

-QB

[Bridgeburners]

I actually kind of felt the opposite about his reaction initally (assuming you're talking about the first wagon). I think I particularly liked 431 when he said he didn't want to call anyone on the wagon scum because he had no evidence of that being the case. I think if he were scum there would've been some attempt to push the vote elsewhere, maybe onto one of the wagon hoppers.

I am talking about that, yeah. Idk I just think it’s a really weird reaction to have as town to see yourself at 5 (and practically at 6, if scipio hadn’t jumped off (which, btw, I’m inclined to say is basically a scumclaim if Ben!scum)) votes and be like “huh yeah reserving judgement this could be all town) when I think the far more natural thing is to assume that scum is involved in your wagon somehow if it’s that large — not being sure where, fine. You don’t know if they started it or sheeped on. But to not have your mind going scum are taking advantage of me somehow is just... real weird, and I think missing the paranoia element that most people have as town. And I think that lack of paranoia about it is almost tmi? Like of course it’s harder to fake paranoia about your wagon if it is all town lol

-QB

[seCret hYdra]

Yesterday was long.

I don't especially feel compelled to jump off from the claim. If there's some other good wagon then it'd be fine to but the claim isn't convincing.

I'd like Hydra to explain why

exactly

he says it'd be "easily disproven if fake". That post feels like scum hastily trying to be one of the first people to give judgment on a claim and get credit for that but not actually thinking about what they're saying because I don't think that's how tracker claims play out in practice.

Menalque's reaction is +town in context I think.

the numbers mason, the numbers

first of all, satistics indicate to 0/1/2 "I" to be rolled, that means that if we have another tracker, it's a realistically 99% counterclaim

then, i think we can pretty much all agree that scum wouldn't claim tracker in a power stacked game, as it's the best way to die while being proven fake, so in the event that ben is actually scum, he's in a high "T" scumteam, therefore we wouldn't lose at 5p LyLo, and if he's still alive at that point, the evidence will become pretty fucking damning

that's how i see the setup anyways, but i'd really like it if ben stopped being underwhelming

- hYdra

[Datisi]

also, tbh, sorting you can be kind of a headache so I was hoping you would just ~be town~ and then I could engage with you after I was already happy with the read

did you just call me a headache

i get not trying to force it, but i'm annoyed now bc my probably the best method of sorting you is basically inapplicable right now.

[Datisi]

i was gonna call extreme bullshit on that tracker claim bc i remembered that ben said something very vt-like earlier on in the game, but upon actually looking back, it's not as slam-dunk as i thought

still don't wanna remove my vote yet. i'd at least like for ben to catch up or something before anything else.

[Datisi]

so in the event that ben is actually scum, he's in a high "T" scumteam,

therefore we wouldn't lose at 5p LyLo

, and if he's still alive at that point, the evidence will become pretty fucking damning

what does the bolded mean?

also, i dunno how much i wanna play this game assuming scum is always making "optimal" moves. like, last time i played this setup, scum claimed vengeful.

[seCret hYdra]

so in the event that ben is actually scum, he's in a high "T" scumteam,

therefore we wouldn't lose at 5p LyLo

, and if he's still alive at that point, the evidence will become pretty fucking damning

what does the bolded mean?

also, i dunno how much i wanna play this game assuming scum is always making "optimal" moves. like, last time i played this setup, scum claimed vengeful.

i mean, that 7p wouldn't be ExLo, you see what i mean?

(sk shenanegans taken aside of course)

and idk, this is a very fine playerlist of very fine gentlemen i'll assume y'all kinda know how to play at least

- hYdra

[implosion]

first of all, satistics indicate to 0/1/2 "I" to be rolled, that means that if we have another tracker, it's a realistically 99% counterclaim

You said "easily disproved if fake", not "easily disproved if fake and there's a real tracker as well". The probability of 0 I letters given no prior info is 32%, not exactly trivially low. I could say more here on the statistics but won't for now, but suffice to say "99%" is a

very drastic overstatement

. This still seems, as I described, a hasty statement.

then, i think we can pretty much all agree that scum wouldn't claim tracker in a power stacked game,

Hard disagree. They could claim tracker to elicit a counter, they could claim it to live a few more days to use their own power role if they think they don't have longevity, they could claim it and try to make it to endgame as menalque described.

[PenguinPower]

math

[seCret hYdra]

first of all, satistics indicate to 0/1/2 "I" to be rolled, that means that if we have another tracker, it's a realistically 99% counterclaim

You said "easily disproved if fake", not "easily disproved if fake and there's a real tracker as well". The probability of 0 I letters given no prior info is 32%, not exactly trivially low. I could say more here on the statistics but won't for now, but suffice to say "99%" is a

very drastic overstatement

. This still seems, as I described, a hasty statement.

then, i think we can pretty much all agree that scum wouldn't claim tracker in a power stacked game,

Hard disagree. They could claim tracker to elicit a counter, they could claim it to live a few more days to use their own power role if they think they don't have longevity, they could claim it and try to make it to endgame as menalque described.

pulls spreadsheet out

yes, but 1/2 I's would also be equally terrible for ben given the following

the equation for the probability of these numbers, which... i'm actually too dumb to actually make holy fuck, anyways, common sense tells me that it's fairly high, way higher than the odds of 3/4/5/6/7! "I" so anyone being a tracker would cc

eh, there's no super powerful scum role in this setup imo, but i see where you're getting from

i should prob stop wanting to spare PR claims lol

[SirCakez]

Shirou replaces notscience!

[Scipio1]

hmm

[Scipio1]

We're not limming ben today. That slot should resolve itself naturally.

[Scipio1]

I don't like how implosion is trying to push the ben elim even though he's claimed. Bridge's reaction feels like genuine paranoia while implosion's does not.

[Shirou]

Hi there, it seems like I'm a player in this game now.

I had read bits here and there before replacing, but didn't really read the game at all.

I'll be doing my catch-up and post later.

[Shirou]

I'm not sure whether to post my thoughts while I'm catching up, or to post it after I've read it all. I think the later is the less confusing choice but I don't know, sometimes I just feel like saying something about a post or other I see, so I may or may not post during my catch-up? Let's go with that yes.

[PenguinPower]

immediately prepares to ignore the impending wallpost

[Shirou]

I don't want to talk too much but last two things I want to note are:

1) I'll be trying to use a Katsuki-style in this game after I'm done reading it. Optimally I want to only spend a few minutes each couple of days here, until I feel there's content enough for me to read, or even re:read the whole game and come to a solve. I'm not going to be using capslock

or claiming masons

though, I mean Katsuki-style because I want to learn to lurk more, and scream less. This game is an attempt of me trying to play mafia and be productive elsewhere at the same time.


2) My first thought in the few pages/ posts I did read was that regardless of his actual alignment, Ben would be wagoned, so it's a bit funny to me that he's the top wagon now that I'm replacing-in. For what it's worth, I don't think this fact is related to his alignment at all, it's just easy to see what the common suspects in a game are gonna be, regardless of their actual alignment.

[Shirou]

immediately prepares to ignore the impending wallpost

do you mean this to me PP?

I wouldn't normally ask this but, do you mean "I ignore all wallposts" with this, or do you mean "I don't think what you're gonna say is relevant Shirou"?

[Bridgeburners]

fwiw i disagree with mena and don't want to flip ben

~ skitter

[PenguinPower]

the former

[PenguinPower]

It was meant to come across as a desire for real-time posting as you caught up instead of a summary of thoughts at the end.

[PenguinPower]

fwiw i disagree with mena and don't want to flip ben

~ skitter

Who do you want to flip?

[Bridgeburners]

Shirou replaces notscience!

hello!

random thought: i do not townread sechyd
i've had this thought for a while, but i kept forgetting to say it

~ skitter

[Bridgeburners]

hmmm - why are we your strongest tr?

@scipio

maybe third time's the charm ....

~ skitter