Page 42 of 158
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:57 am
by Bridgeburners
Muahaha, just like I planned, I get to push the PR as a lim option AND get towncred for it
-QB
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:00 am
by Bridgeburners
In post 1021, AaronFrost wrote:I actually kind of felt the opposite about his reaction initally (assuming you're talking about the first wagon). I think I particularly liked 431 when he said he didn't want to call anyone on the wagon scum because he had no evidence of that being the case. I think if he were scum there would've been some attempt to push the vote elsewhere, maybe onto one of the wagon hoppers.
I am talking about that, yeah. Idk I just think it’s a really weird reaction to have as town to see yourself at 5 (and practically at 6, if scipio hadn’t jumped off (which, btw, I’m inclined to say is basically a scumclaim if Ben!scum)) votes and be like “huh yeah reserving judgement this could be all town) when I think the far more natural thing is to assume that scum is involved in your wagon somehow if it’s that large — not being sure where, fine. You don’t know if they started it or sheeped on. But to not have your mind going scum are taking advantage of me somehow is just... real weird, and I think missing the paranoia element that most people have as town. And I think that lack of paranoia about it is almost tmi? Like of course it’s harder to fake paranoia about your wagon if it is all town lol
-QB
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:09 am
by seCret hYdra
In post 1023, implosion wrote:Yesterday was long.
I don't especially feel compelled to jump off from the claim. If there's some other good wagon then it'd be fine to but the claim isn't convincing.
I'd like Hydra to explain why
exactly
he says it'd be "easily disproven if fake". That post feels like scum hastily trying to be one of the first people to give judgment on a claim and get credit for that but not actually thinking about what they're saying because I don't think that's how tracker claims play out in practice.
Menalque's reaction is +town in context I think.
the numbers mason, the numbers
first of all, satistics indicate to 0/1/2 "I" to be rolled, that means that if we have another tracker, it's a realistically 99% counterclaim
then, i think we can pretty much all agree that scum wouldn't claim tracker in a power stacked game, as it's the best way to die while being proven fake, so in the event that ben is actually scum, he's in a high "T" scumteam, therefore we wouldn't lose at 5p LyLo, and if he's still alive at that point, the evidence will become pretty fucking damning
that's how i see the setup anyways, but i'd really like it if ben stopped being underwhelming
- hYdra
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:11 am
by Datisi
In post 996, Bridgeburners wrote:also, tbh, sorting you can be kind of a headache so I was hoping you would just ~be town~ and then I could engage with you after I was already happy with the read
did you just call me a headache
i get not trying to force it, but i'm annoyed now bc my probably the best method of sorting you is basically inapplicable right now.
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:15 am
by Datisi
i was gonna call extreme bullshit on that tracker claim bc i remembered that ben said something very vt-like earlier on in the game, but upon actually looking back, it's not as slam-dunk as i thought
still don't wanna remove my vote yet. i'd at least like for ben to catch up or something before anything else.
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:19 am
by Datisi
In post 1027, seCret hYdra wrote:so in the event that ben is actually scum, he's in a high "T" scumteam,
therefore we wouldn't lose at 5p LyLo
, and if he's still alive at that point, the evidence will become pretty fucking damning
what does the bolded mean?
also, i dunno how much i wanna play this game assuming scum is always making "optimal" moves. like, last time i played this setup, scum claimed vengeful.
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:24 am
by seCret hYdra
In post 1030, Datisi wrote: In post 1027, seCret hYdra wrote:so in the event that ben is actually scum, he's in a high "T" scumteam,
therefore we wouldn't lose at 5p LyLo
, and if he's still alive at that point, the evidence will become pretty fucking damning
what does the bolded mean?
also, i dunno how much i wanna play this game assuming scum is always making "optimal" moves. like, last time i played this setup, scum claimed vengeful.
i mean, that 7p wouldn't be ExLo, you see what i mean?
(sk shenanegans taken aside of course)
and idk, this is a very fine playerlist of very fine gentlemen i'll assume y'all kinda know how to play at least
- hYdra
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:32 am
by implosion
Hydra wrote:first of all, satistics indicate to 0/1/2 "I" to be rolled, that means that if we have another tracker, it's a realistically 99% counterclaim
You said "easily disproved if fake", not "easily disproved if fake and there's a real tracker as well". The probability of 0 I letters given no prior info is 32%, not exactly trivially low. I could say more here on the statistics but won't for now, but suffice to say "99%" is a
very drastic overstatement
. This still seems, as I described, a hasty statement.
Hydra wrote:then, i think we can pretty much all agree that scum wouldn't claim tracker in a power stacked game,
Hard disagree. They could claim tracker to elicit a counter, they could claim it to live a few more days to use their own power role if they think they don't have longevity, they could claim it and try to make it to endgame as menalque described.
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:34 am
by PenguinPower
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:42 am
by seCret hYdra
In post 1032, implosion wrote:Hydra wrote:first of all, satistics indicate to 0/1/2 "I" to be rolled, that means that if we have another tracker, it's a realistically 99% counterclaim
You said "easily disproved if fake", not "easily disproved if fake and there's a real tracker as well". The probability of 0 I letters given no prior info is 32%, not exactly trivially low. I could say more here on the statistics but won't for now, but suffice to say "99%" is a
very drastic overstatement
. This still seems, as I described, a hasty statement.
Hydra wrote:then, i think we can pretty much all agree that scum wouldn't claim tracker in a power stacked game,
Hard disagree. They could claim tracker to elicit a counter, they could claim it to live a few more days to use their own power role if they think they don't have longevity, they could claim it and try to make it to endgame as menalque described.
pulls spreadsheet out
yes, but 1/2 I's would also be equally terrible for ben given the following
the equation for the probability of these numbers, which... i'm actually too dumb to actually make holy fuck, anyways, common sense tells me that it's fairly high, way higher than the odds of 3/4/5/6/7! "I" so anyone being a tracker would cc
eh, there's no super powerful scum role in this setup imo, but i see where you're getting from
i should prob stop wanting to spare PR claims lol
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:19 pm
by SirCakez
Shirou replaces notscience!
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:20 pm
by Scipio1
hmm
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:21 pm
by Scipio1
We're not limming ben today. That slot should resolve itself naturally.
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:22 pm
by Scipio1
I don't like how implosion is trying to push the ben elim even though he's claimed. Bridge's reaction feels like genuine paranoia while implosion's does not.
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:26 pm
by Shirou
Hi there, it seems like I'm a player in this game now.
I had read bits here and there before replacing, but didn't really read the game at all.
I'll be doing my catch-up and post later.
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:28 pm
by Shirou
I'm not sure whether to post my thoughts while I'm catching up, or to post it after I've read it all. I think the later is the less confusing choice but I don't know, sometimes I just feel like saying something about a post or other I see, so I may or may not post during my catch-up? Let's go with that yes.
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:29 pm
by PenguinPower
immediately prepares to ignore the impending wallpost
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:35 pm
by Shirou
I don't want to talk too much but last two things I want to note are:
1) I'll be trying to use a Katsuki-style in this game after I'm done reading it. Optimally I want to only spend a few minutes each couple of days here, until I feel there's content enough for me to read, or even re:read the whole game and come to a solve. I'm not going to be using capslock
or claiming masons
though, I mean Katsuki-style because I want to learn to lurk more, and scream less. This game is an attempt of me trying to play mafia and be productive elsewhere at the same time.
2) My first thought in the few pages/ posts I did read was that regardless of his actual alignment, Ben would be wagoned, so it's a bit funny to me that he's the top wagon now that I'm replacing-in. For what it's worth, I don't think this fact is related to his alignment at all, it's just easy to see what the common suspects in a game are gonna be, regardless of their actual alignment.
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:37 pm
by Shirou
do you mean this to me PP?
I wouldn't normally ask this but, do you mean "I ignore all wallposts" with this, or do you mean "I don't think what you're gonna say is relevant Shirou"?
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:41 pm
by Bridgeburners
fwiw i disagree with mena and don't want to flip ben
~ skitter
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:42 pm
by PenguinPower
the former
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:42 pm
by PenguinPower
It was meant to come across as a desire for real-time posting as you caught up instead of a summary of thoughts at the end.
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:43 pm
by PenguinPower
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:44 pm
by Bridgeburners
hello!
random thought: i do not townread sechyd
i've had this thought for a while, but i kept forgetting to say it
~ skitter
Posted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:45 pm
by Bridgeburners
maybe third time's the charm ....
~ skitter