Open 811 - Lovers and Losers (New Game+) [Game Over]

[yessiree]

VC 1.29

With 9 votes, it takes 5 to eliminate

Anastasia (3)

- VFP, T-Bone, Bambi Jay

T-Bone (3)

- Bingle, RationalMadman, Anastasia

Bambi Jay (1)

- Kerset

Bingle (1)

- Something_Smart

Note Voting - LlamaFluff

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2021-05-25 22:00:00)

[LlamaFluff]

I absolutely would be willing to deal with fallout of being wrong on you here.

Which is... what? Probably losing the game?

You underestimate me, but yes taking a pretty major shot as it pretty much comes down to can I stop more than two town screwing up from there on.

[Bambi Jay]

I absolutely would be willing to deal with fallout of being wrong on you here.

Which is... what? Probably losing the game?

Vex tried to kill Llama first cuz they couldn't read him as well as me due to us having similar personalities... Supposedly. Frankly it felt more like an easy wincon of killing the more experienced guy who probably would've beaten Vex in Elim or Lose.

So honestly Vex probably wanted to use the fact I meme more and don't put as much thought into my posts against me to get me killed in a final elim to win. If Vex was a paranoid town that actually legit just wanted to be sure... Well played to Llama I guess but if only for that I will always vote You over Llama first.

[Something_Smart]

Vex tried to kill Llama first cuz they couldn't read him as well as me due to us having similar personalities...

Well there seems to be a step missing here. If Vex voted Llama because Vex couldn't read Llama but they can read you, then presumably Vex voted Llama because they can read you and got a townread on you. Or else what you said is a mischaracterization, because even if they had a blatantly scum-motivated reason, they wouldn't have admitted as much in the thread.

Can you point to where Vex explained this?

[LlamaFluff]

Vex tried to kill Llama first cuz they couldn't read him as well as me due to us having similar personalities...

Well there seems to be a step missing here. If Vex voted Llama because Vex couldn't read Llama but they can read you, then presumably Vex voted Llama because they can read you and got a townread on you. Or else what you said is a mischaracterization, because even if they had a blatantly scum-motivated reason, they wouldn't have admitted as much in the thread.

Can you point to where Vex explained this?

See this gets to the core point of why I have VV as scum.

They apparently after a game that got called after 48 hours and 12 pages were so scared of me, that they would rather vote me over Bambi. However they state that they think they Bambi is a player that they can read. Then *never* got a read on Bambi, or did anything to make that read on Bambi happen. That was the crux of VV being scum. A cop out of "im afraid of a player" who there was very limited time to ever get a read on, coupled with apparently a confidence to read another player on, which from their standpoint as town would reveal my alignment, and no follow through.

There is a difference between town being lazy and scum trying to stall. I dont doubt that VV actually lost time and needed to be replaced, but how someone says "I cant read X, but can read Y" when Y to them is opposite of X and never makes an attempt to read X is town. Thats why I think Vex was scum. I get trying to form a read of one player off of another. I dont get the feeling that its your only option (especially as again they had about 48 hours of D1 scum me experience) and then never following through on it.

I guess also to an extent there are more than just me scum reading VV on not feeling the same, but I dont trust my meta fully as again very small sample and its hard to compare players when you were playing as scum but now as town as you pay attention to a lot of different things.

[Bambi Jay]

They did it multiple times actually.

if bambi's playstyle is what i think it is, i don't really care, since i know i'll be able to read them.

i can't read you, which is why i want you dead first tbh

Next one towards me

i’d much rather not face you in endgame as scum since we’re similar in playstyle.
you versus me would come down to simply who can persuade the other, whereas me versus llama is overall play, which i’m confident in

Im just trying to figure out of Vex would actually use "I cant read them" as a reason to push a wagon as town right now when they apparently have no reason to town read the other member.

i look at it this way:
i'd much rather have someone i know i can flag as town/scum alive than someone i cannot flag as either alignment.

When do you successfully read Bambi then? What needs to happen first?

Also again how do you know you cant read me when you *never* have played with me as town until now?

i don't think i've ever played with bambi before. i think they were in one of my games a long time ago, but i barely remember that. wrt to reading bambi, i just need the game to play out more.
additionally, i know my own limits as a player, and i feel like i have a relatively firm idea of what your playstyle is, which is why i feel comfortable making these calls atm.

@llama - bingle has literally said bambi’s playstyle is 70% mine.
bambi has also agreed to this.
why *wouldn’t* i be able to read someone whose playstyle is very similar to mine?

[T-Bone]

The play is still getting the lovers right. If you're town you have the information that VFP and I are town. There's no reason to aggro Ana out of the blue unless it was a legitimate read. VFP and I have guaranteed our own elimination in the current game state if Kerset/Bingle are the scum pair, we realize this, yes?

This does also confirm to me that Bambi is town, so that's good from my perspective for what it's worth. I actually think we got it right since Bingle hasn't taking the easy opportunity to put me at L-1 because then the scum between Llama/SS makes an excuse and hammers.

So, I think we got 7/9 slots solved at this point. That's uniquely my perspective though I don't think anyone else can say that with the same confidence except VFP.

[T-Bone]

As much as I don't want to leave the lover question unresolved...I think I read Llama as town.

VFP can you give me your thoughts on the VTs when you see this?

[T-Bone]

I think in retrospect I read Bingle as town? Gah. Kerset has had ample opportunity to seal my fate and hasn't. Like a ridiculous amount of opportunity to do so.

[Something_Smart]

They apparently after a game that got called after 48 hours and 12 pages were so scared of me, that they would rather vote me over Bambi.

I read through Vex's ISO and didn't get the impression that they were scared of you-- just unfamiliar with you.

I can't say for sure what was going through Vex's head, but honestly Bambi's theory does have merit, even with Vex as town-- if Vex would have hard time 1v1ing Llama but an easier time 1v1ing Bambi, they'd rather pick the latter since from their POV as long as they don't die town can't lose the VT group.

Remember too that Vex wanted to resolve the lovers first. So saying that they would vote you first doesn't really mean much, since they were also agreeing that they wanted to read Bambi better before deciding. I don't really know why they made that take, but it could have just been familiarity. I think that given that they didn't actually act on it (they didn't want to execute you on D1), it really shouldn't count for as much as you're counting it for. Like, they said they preferred to kill you over Bambi, but there's no evidence that they actually wanted to kill you, since they kept their vote on Bingle.

[Something_Smart]

I think in retrospect I read Bingle as town? Gah. Kerset has had ample opportunity to seal my fate and hasn't. Like a ridiculous amount of opportunity to do so.

To seal your fate? Were you ever at E-1?

[T-Bone]

Plurality voting means 4 is enough.

[Something_Smart]

But there's still over 24 hours left in the day, so couldn't people switch their votes...?

[T-Bone]

I'm discounting all 3 VTs voting together with me because I don't think you all would do so, even if the goon had a mislim opportunity. An elimination basically happens when 2 pairs agree on the third. Kerset at any time could have ensured I was the plurality, so to me that counts for something.

[T-Bone]

Im curious as to what people you think could switch their votes to deny Kerset this power he very much obviously has?

[Something_Smart]

But if Kerset is scum, then scum are in a fantastic spot, and they probably would be slow playing to not risk blowing their lead. Kerset and Bingle both strike me as patient enough to do something like that, since they know that they will win as long as nothing changes.

[Something_Smart]

Im curious as to what people you think could switch their votes to deny Kerset this power he very much obviously has?

No, you're right, nobody can. Kerset can't seal your fate because Bingle already has.

[T-Bone]

I've been calling them scum basically all game. That's plenty of cover by itself to mislim me and get away with it. Maybe it still happens. Watch for the person who tries their hardest to blame me for my miselimination in that case.

I also actually just think the game state makes more sense for Ana/RM to be the solve.

[T-Bone]

Im curious as to what people you think could switch their votes to deny Kerset this power he very much obviously has?

No, you're right, nobody can. Kerset can't seal your fate because Bingle already has.

What?

[Something_Smart]

Kerset/Bingle being scum seems far and away the simplest explanation and I can't tell if I'm too out of touch to see it or if everyone else is too confbiased to see it.

[Something_Smart]

What?

Well you said yourself that two pairs agreeing on the third effectively seals the third's fate regardless of what the VT's think. So if Kerset is scum, then the scum already have the power to decide which lover pair gets eliminated today, and right now they're clearly favoring you.

I guess this means I should vote Ana to force the scum to put their money where their mouth is, but man does it feel bad voting a hard townread like that.

[Something_Smart]

Nah, I think it's wrong for me to do that, because I would be much more confident in RM/Ana vs Kerset/Bingle than I would be in T-Bone/VFP vs Kerset/Bingle.

[T-Bone]

Listen I know you can't answer for your predacessor...but VV literally had over a week to put Kerset/Bingle at E-1 and didn't. So I'm not sure you really get to play the "so and so is scum and only I see it" card. That was literally my life for most of the game. I'm choosing to trust my partner's read over my own for better or worse.

[T-Bone]

Nah, I think it's wrong for me to do that, because I would be much more confident in RM/Ana vs Kerset/Bingle than I would be in T-Bone/VFP vs Kerset/Bingle.

To be honest I don't even trust you would have voted Kerset. Alas we may never know.

[Something_Smart]

Listen I know you can't answer for your predacessor...but VV literally had over a week to put Kerset/Bingle at E-1 and didn't. So I'm not sure you really get to play the "so and so is scum and only I see it" card.

I don't follow this. If Kerset/Bingle are scum, then I am the only one (I think?) who sees it. If they aren't, then I am the only one too out of touch with the game to realize it. One of these is true, by necessity. I don't know which one.