Posted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 8:53 am
I'm back from V/LA and now going to get caught up/go back over Day 1. A scumflip is exactly what the doctor ordered; I'll get my teeth into this one.
https://forum.mafiascum-staging.net/
Why is notscience a town read?In post 1051, ChannelDelibird wrote:If anyone wants to ask me stuff/point me to anything I missed, this is a good time. I've got my head further into the game than I have before and would like to capitalise it in a slightly less rambling way than this large post. Hit me.
For reasons mentioned yesterday but also this and the timing of this. Neighbourhood also leans town.In post 1053, CrashTextDummie wrote:Why is notscience a town read?
Doesn't seem particularly interesting. Ffery's assertion that the Empire wagon was all town is not exactly pushing the boat out from her POV. Grimgroove and Garmr, those most obviously not voting for a bigger wagon at the end of the day, seem town enough for other reasons and I can't speak to timezones so not particularly seeing it as significant.Any thought on wagon composition at the end of yesterday?
Given Empire's flip, it looks like a fairly standard kill-off-the-guy-nobody's-really-scumreading-who-has-his-teeth-into-one-of-us affair.Any thought on the LolWagons kill?
My ffery conclusion doesn't end up like a proper scumread but it was one of the ones I agonised most over as I went over. This was one of the first major interactions with Maestro/Empire of any kind from any player and so, in trying to read from an Empire-centric POV, I gave it quite a lot of thought and decided that I could see it either way. Though that means it's null, that possibility of it being a scumbuddy-nudge affected how I read ffery through the rest of a thread, given that she was a previous townread that I was now asking myself from very early on whether I should doubt.Your Ffery read doesn't exactly look like a scum read, and it's implied that you're not very confident in your CTD/SK reads. How does your suspicion of the former rank against your read on the latter two?
I don't recall responding specifically to any of your misgivings about the Brian wagon. The weight of your concerns about Empire towards the end of the Day seemed to focus on your previous experience of him in a game where you were scum and he was scary-to-you Town and much more proactive/aggressive than he'd been playing; the way you brought it up was both in line with similar lines of inquiry from you throughout the Day and naturally prompted in the course of analysis on your part. But the disagreement about what actually went down in the game you cited seemed natural on both sides; I felt that Town or scum, Empire genuinely remembered the game that way (and you also genuinely remembered the game that way) and furthermore that I had no strong feeling that either he was lying or that the example went exactly as you said rather than fall somewhere in the middle of the he-said-she-said.In post 1032, fferyllt wrote:One thing that jumps to mind is Plum's response to my concerns about Empire and misgivings about the Brian wagon as mere meta cases or some such.
Meh, I've been tempted to post things that would trip that so-called tell as both Town and scum, and personally refrained as all alignments because of the way it's perceived. I feel it's reflective of Garmr's odd filter more than anything.In post 1041, notscience wrote:This was exactly my thought processIn post 1038, Peabody wrote:Garmr's post looks like a 'congratulating the doctor' tell.
CDB was under mild potential pressure throughout the Day; Empire repeatedly expressed mild suspicion of him a couple of times and said that he'd check up on him to try to get a read on him, but never got around to it. CDB called Empire 'promising' but also didn't touch him and remained on Brian all Day (lurking through deadline didn't help my general opinion of him, either - his IRL busyness is plausible, but dude didn't even mention that he'd be missing deadline?).In post 1042, CrashTextDummie wrote:What about this interaction makes you think they're scum buddies?In post 1031, Plum wrote:Empire on CDB and CDB on Maestro/Empire
Working on the assumption that the Emp wagon was all Town; I think it's a worthwhile assumption. The Kaze/Peabody slot is obviously not scum with Empire if you read the interactions and votecounts. I'd guess that the chances that Empire put no scumbuddies outside of Town on his initial reads post is fairly low, leading to strong scrutiny of the YYR/Grimgroove slot (listed as scum, but never pursued) and CDB (listed as null and occasionally poked at thereafter but also never pursued; both could have been pushed yesterday but didn't end up wagoned, and Empire also refrained from pushing them. CTD stood out for being mildly antagonistic towards the Maestro wagon and trying to get votes off it. It was neither as prominent a position as SK's not as inquisitve; it was basically just 'don't vote Maestro; I empathize with you guys but you should vote somewhere else'. That seems a more likely scummy position to me than SK's, though I do mean to look at that more - maybe later tonight, maybe tomorrow. CTD was minimally discussed by Empire yesterday (though he also was minimally pressured); not indicative of very much, but doesn't give any pause to my feelings about how CTD related to the Maestro wagon.In post 1044, Grimgroove wrote:I don't have much else to add at this point, apart from the fact that Plum's effort in 1031 rings town to me, though I'd like to hear more about her pre-selection process when lifiting out those three.
See above for my expanded feelings about Grimgroove; I see you have a read on him independent of his relationship with Empire; mine is rooted substantially in it. You yourself commented none on the Maestro wagon at all until after the fact and didn't do anything much to read Empire after he replaced in.In post 1051, ChannelDelibird wrote:Plum, then. Around this time, she seems to be largely ignoring Maestro but includes him in a pretty passive list of basically 'people who can die, I guess', which I think is more likely to come from a buddy than not. I find her vote on Grimgroove a bit weird, as he looks fairly solidly town due to sheer volume of input and heart, and there are also a couple of other posts which I noted down though are mostly seen through confirmation bias, I suspect. Of everything, she seems like the vote I can least argue with at the moment.
That's probably the worst case for maybe-scum-me I've ever seen advanced. You thiiiiiink my Maestro vote was me trying to nudge Maestro into doing more. If so, why wouldn't I have taken SK's invitation to do something more useful with my vote once I'd made my nudge? You thiiiink my FoSing Empire for not initiating interactions was slightly scummish. What's your rationale? Was I coaching him? Me?In post 1051, ChannelDelibird wrote:Ffery seems like sheshouldbe a townread. I've already mentioned getting one on her before, and I think I'm still happy with the reason on that one. Reading back, I initially wondered about this; I can see it both ways as either genuinely town trying to force another player into action/go with a hunch, or alternatively as scum trying to nudge a buddy into doing more. It's probably null but it did make me start looking at ffery more intently than some others as I read through and there are some confusing leans.
This seems like an odd time/reason to unvote Maestro. This from Empire, in a larger post that should be crucial but that I find frustratingly impenetrable, at least doesn't seem to make a ffery partnership less likely. Again, I could see this going either way but I thiiiiiink I lean slightly scummish on it. But then you get this and it's getting to a point where she's been pushing Empire for such a long time that it's hard not to think it's townish. But then this happens and I wonder again, although I thiiiiink it's consistent with fferytown as well. Overall, I am confused but I am willing to chalk enough of it up to paranoia and look at some general towniness and say this isn't the place to go today.
I'm not ever going to like what you did there. But, there's a reason why I chose my sig.In post 1042, CrashTextDummie wrote:Ayup. I regret holding off on committing to an Empire read, but I can't really feel bad about pushing the Brian wagon towards the edge.In post 1033, SpyreX wrote:CTD (shock) was the vote that pushed Brian ahead.
I thought Grimgroove seemed uber-town as he replaced in, but I thought YYR was scummy enough to vote. I want more time for that read to develop. Garmr, I dunno. He's a fairly new player and his approach to the game has some new-to-mafia features and some features that just seem idiosyncratic. I am reconsidering him. I'm more concerned about CDB and to a lesser extent, SK.Do you have a scum read on Grimgroove or Garmr?In post 1017, fferyllt wrote:I have a feeling the empire wagon was pure town. Maybe 1 more scum on the Brian Skies wagon?
Why do you have CDB as town?Not really interested in people off the wagon. Grimgroove defended himself well enough against my accusations and I have trouble seeing him tooting a scum buddy's horn like he did Empire's at the end of yesterday. On the Brian wagon, I think CDB and Peabody are likely town. In the context of his ISO, notscience's vote looks most suspect to me.
vote: notscience
Is your notsci vote informed by neighborhood interactions? Is it mostly about the bandwagon analysis?In post 1033, SpyreX wrote:@Garmr:
Read again. Both kills were shots. Empire had the knives, etc.
Spoiler: Wagons
CTD (shock) was the vote that pushed Brian ahead.
The second Brian voted for SK someone should have noticed. Plum saying its a barrel of WIFOM hurts the brainmeat.
Peabody's throwaway vote is very, very bad. He avoided it entirely.
NS's vote was the one that really cemented the momentum.
Empires wagon was all town. Scum swung at least one other vote on that one taking it, especially with it being a roleblocker AND them knowing brian was actually a miller putting a big ol "THAR BE COPS" in the setup spec. That one would be committed to.
I'm not stoked about SK's pushing but I've still got warm there.
Peabodies vote there doesn't bother me AS much.
Unvote, Vote: NS
This one is the one that really sets me off.
CTD and Plum are close.
No, but unlike you I wasn't there at the time - unless you're accusing me of strategically being busy sitewide - but I didn't ignore it when I got back, as Skrew and I discussed it in relation to Kaze at least.In post 1056, Plum wrote:You yourself commented none on the Maestro wagon at all until after the fact
You're right. I find him tough to read and it was easier to focus elsewhere with the time that I had.and didn't do anything much to read Empire after he replaced in.
I don't think that's as certain a scum consequence as you're implying here. Plenty of people would hold onto such a vote under a bit of pressure to make a point or appear convinced or whatever.In post 1057, fferyllt wrote:You thiiiiiink my Maestro vote was me trying to nudge Maestro into doing more. If so, why wouldn't I have taken SK's invitation to do something more useful with my vote once I'd made my nudge?
Coaching him, per se? No, unlikely, but as scum I find that there are things I have to call out my partners on because I would have spotted them as town. Seeing as you seem to know Empire well, it would make sense that you'd feel obliged to draw attention to something. As I said later in the relevant paragraph, however, the strength and continuousness with which you banged this drum kind of has to add up to you being more likely town than scum - but this is a post that, along the way, put doubt in my mind.You thiiiink my FoSing Empire for not initiating interactions was slightly scummish. What's your rationale? Was I coaching him? Me?
As I thought was obvious from the 'this, this and this' nature of my catchup post, I was going through as I went and noted down what felt weird. At the time of that post, I didn't see the later vote back on. You didn't explain that this was what you were doing initially, either. I think it was reasonable to note it down as odd.I unvoted him while I went back through a game I played where he hydra'd to see if I was all that mistaken about which posts were his vs Tierce's. After confirming that my recollection wasn't so bad, I put my vote back down. And while you think that kind of caution about my vote is consistent with my town game, you're still kinda hmm?
When I said "consistent with fferytown" it was not supposed to mean "consistent with ffery's history of being town" (though I apologise for the unclear wording, your interpretation would normally be how I read it too), just "consistent with ffery being town here" in the context of one game. I have very little meta of you from which to draw and am mostly just going on what we see in this thread.Where did you learn what is consistent with fferytown? What games did you meta?
Believe it or not, that isn't a "towniest to scummiest" list of my townreads up there. I just wrote out all six of the people in the order that the names came to me and the least certain ones came out last. If it makes you feel better, you're probably my fourth strongest townread.In post 1061, Grimgroove wrote:Especially ChannelDeliBird suddenly considering me his strongest townread seems quite out there.
Just to make it clear why that sort of thing works for me:No matter how much enthousiasm I show and how much heart I put into it ("sheer volume and heart"), those are not clear-cut towntells and I find it odd you use these as your arguments
In post 706, ChannelDelibird wrote:which does the job of answering the question to myself of "would I be OK to lynch notscience today?".
If you think I was only mildly antagonistic towards the Maestro wagon, maybe I should have made myself clearer. I thought it was a total waste of time. People are garnering town reads for participating (most recently notscience from CDB), which I don't get at all. There's no safer way to vote a scumbuddy than in a situation like this, because these wagons never lead anywhere. I stand by my opinion that Maestro's lack of posting and subsequent replacing out was not alignment indicative.In post 1056, Plum wrote:CTD stood out for being mildly antagonistic towards the Maestro wagon and trying to get votes off it. It was neither as prominent a position as SK's not as inquisitve; it was basically just 'don't vote Maestro; I empathize with you guys but you should vote somewhere else'. That seems a more likely scummy position to me than SK's, though I do mean to look at that more - maybe later tonight, maybe tomorrow. CTD was minimally discussed by Empire yesterday (though he also was minimally pressured); not indicative of very much, but doesn't give any pause to my feelings about how CTD related to the Maestro wagon.
I've danced this dance with CDB many, many times and I think I have a pretty good grasp on his play. The sporadic posting is par for the course for him, but when he did show up to play in this game, he showed an inquisitiveness and a penchant for scum-hunting that I find uncharacteristic for scum-CDB. He's comfortable being perpetually behind as scum, I've seen him lurk through entire games (more prolific than this one) as scum without ever making an effort. Here I think he is trying to pull his weight, and that translates to him probably being town.In post 1058, fferyllt wrote:Why do you have CDB as town?
In post 511, ChannelDelibird wrote:If Brian flips scum, we get to see how partners reacted to his miller claim. In that instance, I think Kaze broadly avoiding taking a stance on it, as observed by Spyrex a couple of pages ago, might be useful as a buddy indicator.
In post 512, Garmr wrote:I get what your saying now and you do have a point. But there's a chance that Brian flips town and kaze in my eyes will still be scum. Wouldn't it be better to vig Brian if we have one?
As I had Brian as a null at the time I wanted to lynch my scum over the miller and let the Vig deal with it latter which I thought would happen around night 2 since I think most people viewed brian as a null read just like me.In post 513, ChannelDelibird wrote:I'm not saying Kaze can't be scum if Brian's town, just that I think we get a more informed decision if we lynch Brian before we decide what to do with Kaze. And, er, no, I'd rather lynch a scumread immediately than leave them to be dealt with by a hypothetical vig.
This response to empire makes me curious. This was obviously aIn post 685, ChannelDelibird wrote:Depends whether or not it was premeditated - I dunno if the scum got a chance to discuss it among themselves before gamestart. But, yes, I do think it's a thing.In post 607, Empire wrote:Do you really think that's a thing? I think buddies of a scummillerfakeclaim would be more inclined to at least say something about it rather than avoid it altogether (it's probably a bit of really pretentious half baked theory,In post 511, ChannelDelibird wrote:If Brian flips scum, we get to see how partners reacted to his miller claim. In that instance, I think Kaze broadly avoiding taking a stance on it, as observed by Spyrex a couple of pages ago, might be useful as a buddy indicator.but I'm thinking pregame deliberated actions like that would compel scum to say something because it gives them an easy way to enter the game).
This is the post empire acknowledges CDB responce to his scum slip up. Then he tries to cover it up even more and with the last paragraph he leaves hints for CBD to not go for Peabody and NS but to keep focused on Brian. Also to make sure he doesn't have to place a vote on CBD and keep in the town section he places a half assed reason why CBD is town.In post 853, Empire wrote:In post 685, ChannelDelibird wrote:
Depends whether or not it was premeditated - I dunno if the scum got a chance to discuss it among themselves before gamestart. But, yes, I do think it's a thing.
Yeah but do you really think Brian's the kind of player to take the initiative / matters into his own hands on a risky gambit like that? Dude's a fairly new player so I doubt he'd just go off and fakeclaim miller as scum without consulting his buddies. If they didn't show up, I doubt he'd have done it. So basically, what I'm trying to say is I think your idea sounds good as a matter of general principle but I think ignores a lot of the particulars.
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I was kinda getting the urge to vote CDB because a lot of his reasoning for townreading / suspecting notscience and Peabody in particular seemed really fake but the self deprecation bits in posts like #689 sound genuine and I'm fairly sure I've seen him be apathetic like this as town before but I'd need to double check (also minor thing, but I liked that he felt the need to continue posting during his sleeping hours as I don't really think he'd give anywhere near as much of a shit as scum).
I seem to know him well? As I indicated, I've played one game with him. I pushed him because his play here didn't seem much like the prior game. And the longer the day went with no content that looked like what I'd seen of his town play in that one game, the more concerned I became.In post 1063, ChannelDelibird wrote:I don't think that's as certain a scum consequence as you're implying here. Plenty of people would hold onto such a vote under a bit of pressure to make a point or appear convinced or whatever.In post 1057, fferyllt wrote:You thiiiiiink my Maestro vote was me trying to nudge Maestro into doing more. If so, why wouldn't I have taken SK's invitation to do something more useful with my vote once I'd made my nudge?
Coaching him, per se? No, unlikely, but as scum I find that there are things I have to call out my partners on because I would have spotted them as town. Seeing as you seem to know Empire well, it would make sense that you'd feel obliged to draw attention to something. As I said later in the relevant paragraph, however, the strength and continuousness with which you banged this drum kind of has to add up to you being more likely town than scum - but this is a post that, along the way, put doubt in my mind.You thiiiink my FoSing Empire for not initiating interactions was slightly scummish. What's your rationale? Was I coaching him? Me?
Your paragraphs look like a narrative. I think it's the narrative-spinning that is pinging so hard for me.As I thought was obvious from the 'this, this and this' nature of my catchup post, I was going through as I went and noted down what felt weird. At the time of that post, I didn't see the later vote back on. You didn't explain that this was what you were doing initially, either. I think it was reasonable to note it down as odd.I unvoted him while I went back through a game I played where he hydra'd to see if I was all that mistaken about which posts were his vs Tierce's. After confirming that my recollection wasn't so bad, I put my vote back down. And while you think that kind of caution about my vote is consistent with my town game, you're still kinda hmm?
[/quote]When I said "consistent with fferytown" it was not supposed to mean "consistent with ffery's history of being town" (though I apologise for the unclear wording, your interpretation would normally be how I read it too), just "consistent with ffery being town here" in the context of one game. I have very little meta of you from which to draw and am mostly just going on what we see in this thread.Where did you learn what is consistent with fferytown? What games did you meta?
Can you suggest some games where you feel CDB's play was similar to this one and he was town?In post 1065, CrashTextDummie wrote:I've danced this dance with CDB many, many times and I think I have a pretty good grasp on his play. The sporadic posting is par for the course for him, but when he did show up to play in this game, he showed an inquisitiveness and a penchant for scum-hunting that I find uncharacteristic for scum-CDB. He's comfortable being perpetually behind as scum, I've seen him lurk through entire games (more prolific than this one) as scum without ever making an effort. Here I think he is trying to pull his weight, and that translates to him probably being town.In post 1058, fferyllt wrote:Why do you have CDB as town?
I'm not sure. I had you as possible scum on day 1, though, and I'm not seeing town motivation in your thoughts on me either.In post 1072, ChannelDelibird wrote:On my phone so can't post much but, Grimgroove, ffery, what do you think was the scum motivation for presenting my thoughts on ffery as I did?