Mini Normal 2012: Tropical Mafia [Endgame]

[Havo]

I'm not a VCA expert but here's some info.

Players voting Both Rampage and Invisibility -
Texcat, Bacy, BBT, Jodax/JJD, Shoshin

Players not voting either -
Gustavo, Havo

Mumble was on Rampage but not Invisibility, he was voting Shoshin at the lynch
HF was not on Rampage, he was voting Shoshin at lynch, He was on Invisibility.
JarJar was on Rampage, but was voting BBT when Invisibility was lynched.

Players voting Both Rampage and Invisibility and voted Shoshin early today -
Texcat and Judge Dread

I don't know how much this tells me, but I believe there's a very good chance that at least one of the players that voted both are scum, maybe two.
Without a scum flip I think VCA's are all but useless.

[Havo]

Why Havo?

Fuck it.

I'm claiming Town Loyal Fruit Vendor and I visited Shoshin last night. She should have received fruit from me but she is saying she has no idea of anything. My action only fails if I target scum. Or if I was role-blocked which is highly unlikely.

PEdit - It wasn't the claim Tex - it was the posting in general.

Where's the Scum motivation for this?

BBT is claiming a provable role. What are the odds he got roleblocked? If he's scum, then he plans on claiming Roleblocked from here on out?
Why make this play as scum this early when Invisibility is at L-1?

My read on BBT has been towny and hasn't really changed. I believe the claim. I don't see how or why he would do this as scum.

So that means.............

Scum blocked him

or he was

possibly

Jail kept by another towny or Shoshin is

actually

scum.

What other scenarios are there for Town BBT to get no result?

His initial reaction to this is to say that BBT is town, his claim is town, and that means there's three possibilities - that scum blocked him, that he was jailkept, or that I'm scum. But the first one he lists is that scum blocked him, and he qualifies both other options with "possibly" and "actually," suggesting he doesn't believe these possibilities as much as the first one. There's the scent of an informed perspective underlying this response.

Okay, prior to BBT's claim.

The game state was really annoying with the arguing going on. I'm glad something has disrupted that tbh.

I'm leaning town on Mumble and my Shoshin read went from Almost Hard town on Day 1 to not so much throughout the day 2.

I still think Invisibility could easily flip scum, and most likely I would have hammered if that was still a possibility prior to BBT's claim.

Then he opportunistically changes his reads precisely in the way scum would if they knew BBT and I were both town. So while earlier he was townreading me and willing to lynch Mumble, now he's town on Mumble and open to lynching me, as he knows I'm the obvious lynch when BBT flips town. But he still wants Invisibility lynched. This will be more apparent to you guys when I flip town.

All I know is I didn't receive a fruit and I'm town as fuck.

No, you're not.

BBT getting roleblocked makes a lot of sense with an Invisibility/Mumble team.

No, it doesn't. Why would scum with a RB roleblock an unknown slot versus a known PR? Makes no sense.

More likely, you are caught scum scrambling.

Is it possible BBT was Jailkept?

Really unnatural question to ask Mumble here. As if he knows I'm flipping town.

I'd lynch Havo on this basis alone, but if you look back at his posts throughout the game, they're pretty bad throughout.

So I'm scum because I looked for scum motivation in BBTs claim.
I'm scum because my reads progressed as the game went on.
I'm scum because I raised the possibility that BBT was JK'd.

So in your opinion, you'd lynch me based on the fact that I'm trying to solve the game?
It's cool thought, because when you flip scum this all goes out the window.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Nothing conclusive in bacy's ISO.

Invis is mostly posting one liners. :/

BBT was a bit sus of Shoshin/Mumble, and it partially explains the kill. I mean, if SCUM blocked him on N1 they sure could have done it again on N2, so why shoot him?

1- Shoshin is town and blocking BBT = confirming he was blocked on N1
OR
2- Shoshin is scum with Mumbles and BBT had to go because he would support a lynch on one or the other, and they can always blame it on being a shot on a PR regardless.

[Shoshin]

I'm surprised that BBT is dead, confirming his role. I realize it's wifom, but if Shoshin is scum, I'd have thought they'd leave BBT alive.

People should really take this into account, as well as the fact that BBT was so sure I was town that he didn't even trust his own role...

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Mumble's ISO gives me pause. I don't think that's how he'd talk to/about Shoshin id they were scum together

texcat's ISO joins bacy's and Invis'. All three probably need to be reread in context rather than as separate ISOs

Going on a limb to say fitz might actually be town too. This is harder than I thought it would be. This is why I don't read when I replace in unless there is a scum flip.

Not gonna ISO JarJar. That's a big ass ISO and I'm starting to get bored already. He's town though.

Havo's ISO can join the trio if tex/bacy/Invis

[Shoshin]

BBT was a bit sus of Shoshin/Mumble, and it partially explains the kill. I mean, if SCUM blocked him on N1 they sure could have done it again on N2, so why shoot him?

They probably killed him to frame me.

[Shoshin]

Yeah, this is a hard game to figure out. It's very unlikely any of my scum reads are going to get lynched, so I dunno. Not sure what I can do at this point to help the town out.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

I'm going to be a bit daring here and assume Shoshin/Mumble was TvT
I think JarJar and fitz are also town

So the 3 scums are in bacy/tex/Havi/Gustavo

We can afford one more mislynch, so if we lynch one of them and they flip Town then lynch the other 3 in sequence for the win. (That's of course assuming I have perfect reads on the other 4).

UNVOTE:

[Shoshin]

Why do you have Mumble/Fitz as town?

[bacy]

i like havo

This is a strange read, especially at this point in the game. Can you explain?

i liked his posts before BBT claimed, i like his thought process in those three posts you quoted aswell actually



welp, shoshin should def be the lynch today, dont think we can afford lynching anywhere else

i got the fruit if anyone happens to care

mumble looks pretty good if shoshin flips scum i feel like

[bacy]

I've just ISO'd TheRampage and it's leading me to believe both Shoshin and Mumble are more likely scum still.

From Garuga's ISO fitz is emerging as a likely suspect too, but not likely with Gustavo, so for now it's Shoshin+Mumble+Gustavo/fitz

you think it's likely there's a shosin/mumble and shoshin/gustavo scum team given their idk arguments thingy? i'd say one could possibly be distancing, both i dont think so

[Shoshin]

bacy, what did you like about Havo's posts? What do you like about his thought process? How is any of it indicative of town?

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Why do you have Mumble/Fitz as town?

I think fitz' ISO is his town game.

Mumble appears o be of the same alignment as you, and I was thinking both scum, but the way he went about you doesn't feels like you are scum together, so I put you two as town who are having a town quarrel.

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Not exactly perfect reasoning, I know, but that's the best I could do from what I have right now.

[Shoshin]

UNVOTE: Havo

I don't fucking know what's going on in this game. Why would BBT give a fruit to bacy?

[bacy]

bacy, what did you like about Havo's posts? What do you like about his thought process? How is any of it indicative of town?

its that kinda thought process that is very likely to come from town i think, solvy type of thing, it mirrors my own thoughts, can see myself agreeing with him etc...

[Shoshin]

I'm worried that bacy/Havo are scum.

[bacy]

UNVOTE: Havo

I don't fucking know what's going on in this game. Why would BBT give a fruit to bacy?

asked myself the same thing, though it makes sense since he said he was giving it to his town reads. from what i remember i think he was townreading me...but yeah, you guys do you..no way that this can be confirmed so

[bacy]

I'm worried that bacy/Havo are scum.

sure you are

[Judge Joseph Dredd]

Why would BBT give a fruit to bacy?

Obviously the way he played it was to confirm his TRs over hunting for scum in his "not sure" reads. *Shrug*

The thing is -as bacy herself pointed out- there's no way to confirm it. Yet if we use Occam's razor it's more likely she's telling the truth because it would be risky for scum to fake that knowing they could be CC'd.

Can anybody see a texcat/Havo/Gustavo as the precise scum team?

[Gustavo]

Jjd 2.0 is looking really bad when shoshin flips scum, and he will flip scum. I believe bacy and I’m still waiting on havo to answer my question. Havo could very easily be scum. Fitz worries me also.

Shaoshin is lock scum.

[bacy]

Actualllyyyy yeah, I might have to rethink havo after a flip

[Havo]

Jjd 2.0 is looking really bad when shoshin flips scum, and he will flip scum. I believe bacy and I’m still waiting on havo to answer my question. Havo could very easily be scum. Fitz worries me also.

Shaoshin is lock scum.

What question is that?

[Havo]

Actualllyyyy yeah, I might have to rethink havo after a flip

You should rethink everyone after a flip.

[Shoshin]

Can anybody see a texcat/Havo/Gustavo as the precise scum team?

Plausible.