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Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:40 am
by floo
Reasons to kill esotericzoomer:
Widely townread?
esotericzoomer was more of a "passive townread," in that he was away from scrutiny in the final leg of Day 1. He had his share of scummy lines to justify a vote. Prism or myself would be a better choice for this reason.
Scumreads
His other scumread was Fredrick. There are other players who scumread Fredrick, so killing EZ would be a poor choice. Fredrick is somewhat vindicated by Enchant's town flip. Plus, EZ's 100% confidence about scumreading Enchant would have blocked his chances of pushing a further scumread.
I think there are two plausible reasons then. The two reasons I mentioned above would not be the main reasons to kill, but could be secondary ones.
- Probable power role. I have not read enough into EZ's posts to see where this is implied though.
- Avoid Doctor/Jailkeeper. This is a hybrid reason which combines "widely townread" and/or "scumreads."
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:40 am
by Spartan117
In post 1035, Prism wrote:Spartan: Who did you think the scum were on the wagon at the time of
838?
I believe at the time you scumread Esoteric but you were voting Frederick, who was offwagon.
At the time yes I was sus of EZ and I had some mild suspicion on Flow trap (generally find them hard to read) who I'm not sure if they was on the Enchants wagon at that exact time but was dancing on or around it. Although I had townread Quiets slot before they subbed in I was also concerned of them being a bit too LAMIST and I had and still have that concern with you too, so I found that whole wagon sus pretty much, I agree what enchant did didn't look very good but it was all too easy for everyone to jump aboard.
What do you think now seeing that slot flip? what do you think of your fellow wagoners? How do you feel their motives compared to your own with that wagon?
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:44 am
by Spartan117
In post 1044, quiet wrote:Actually, flow can tell me the NK equity probably.
The enchant flip gives us basically no info as feared.
I don't feel like he died in vein, I think now that we know for certain enchant is 100% town it gives us a bit more clarity with our reads on those that interacted with him especially with those on his wagon.
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:01 pm
by Spartan117
In post 1046, quiet wrote:My immediate thoughts were “should have just townlocked them and moved on, this gives us nothing”.
I don’t think particularly anyone stands out as a paragon of scum for how they interacted with that wagon. It’s basically a policy elim at that point. I couldn’t find a hero fold there, so why should I expect anyone else to have?
I think the NK is our best bet for info, but otherwise my immediate take was, great, day1 part2, electric boogaloo. I’m probably being dismissive and I’m sure that there’s some info to be gained, but right now I’m trying to figure out what two wagons help solve the game most today, and will need to review to see if there’s anyone that benefits from an EZ kill. I retain some townreads I feel good about, and I remember townreading EZ (I hope I did, havnt looked back yet still traveling), so there was a lil disappointment there.
Flow doesn’t get NKed, I never do
, Fredrick doesn’t, as we had suspicion from yesterday. Spartian falls into that category, but was less sus than us three. I think salsa gets left alive, not over suspicion, but because I think they’re not the scariest town.
I could see floo getting killed, EZ obviously did and was pretty widely TRed if I recall correctly, Prisim you also do often I think, though you fall into the category of scary as a competent scum threat, and may be left alive for that reason.
I’ll need to review as to why EZ was the choice over floo and you. That is my no review (and possibly fallible memory) reaction. When I’m done traveling I’ll read back over and give stronger reads about my suspicious, but other than a TR on Floo which I wholeheartedly retain, I don’t think there’s any that feel locked for me without looking back.
I’m interested in why the push on Fredrick happened, and why it’s still happening. Trying to decide if it’s a good wagon today. I think I’m inclined to hunt somewhere else, but if other people want to champion that I’ll be very interested.
I understand why Flow Trap may be less likely to get NKed although I still would have thought he would have been one of the contenders, but I dont understand why you are distancing yourself from Prism and Floo. I'm not sure if there is something specific as to why it would be the case but I would have put you in the same pool of NK targets as Prism and Floo, if not above floo for your content and effort to try and solve the game? It' makes me sus that you would try and distance yourself like that hmm.
Fredrick was very uncooperative and didnt act in a townie manner trying to solve the game, pushing players, expressing reads, etc.
I'm not sure who the best wagon is yet, I want to see what everyone has to say about the events of N1.
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:02 pm
by Spartan117
Why do you think that Floo, I don't agree.
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:08 pm
by floo
Part of the reason to scumread Fredrick was scummy interactions with Enchant. In particular, I pointed out Fredrick avoided reading Enchant. EZ pointed out Enchant made his vaguest read on Fredrick. If Enchant flipped scum, Fredrick would likely be today's hammer.
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:12 pm
by Spartan117
I agree that is true but I don't see why he is even somewhat vindicated when he was being scumread before them interactions occurred, Floo how do you feel about Prism? Would you be willing to join a wagon on them today?
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:22 pm
by floo
You vote quick. How does the Enchant flip change your read of Fredrick?
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:26 pm
by floo
In post 1056, Spartan117 wrote:I agree that is true but I don't see why he is even somewhat vindicated when he was being scumread before them interactions occurred, Floo how do you feel about Prism? Would you be willing to join a wagon on them today?
I don't townread Prism. A lot of vote pressure/suspicion would be the best way to get a read out of a player who stays under the radar by just contributing a lot. I'm open to voting Prism, but I would prefer voting Salsabil Faria, who stays out of suspicion for the same reason as Prism.
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:27 pm
by Spartan117
In post 1057, floo wrote: You vote quick. How does the Enchant flip change your read of Fredrick?
I get the impression they assumed we would pick up d2 where we left off on d1 with a wagon on Fredrick and while I am still sus of them, I want to see more from them first, I want to see them actively try and solve the game.
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 12:42 pm
by Spartan117
In post 1058, floo wrote:Salsabil Faria, who stays out of suspicion for the same reason as Prism
I felt like there were a few occasions that Salsabil seemed very worried about coming off sus and their behaviour being seen as scummy, which was suspicious to me. I saw them presenting themselves similar to Quiet and Prism with their content and seeming townie but felt like they were more concerned about seeming townie.
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 2:26 pm
by flow trap
In post 1049, Spartan117 wrote:
Any specific reason for your hunch, I take it you just have a bit of specific town sus right?
Mmmm... I changed my mind while I was away
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 2:28 pm
by Fredrick A Campbell
In post 1005, floo wrote:...
The only post that stood out to me as partner-indicating is
In post 871, Fredrick A Campbell wrote:
If I were to try to make a readlist of my own, I would definitely "screw" something too. Hence, my reads are very fluid with players that were more likely to be town to me turning into more likely to be scum and vice versa.
Right now, given what I have read, my guess of the scumteam is Salsabil Faria and quiet with a higher than random chance of being right. Random chance is (1/28). Odds of right to wrong are (1:27).
I'll assume that Fredrick is Enchant's scumpartner in this paragraph. Fredrick does not mention an Enchant read in this post or any other post so far post-drama, not even to analyze anything Enchant has done. At this time, Enchant is the most important read, but he has none (
865), with an excuse of not having caught up (
866). Instead, he redirects attention to two other scumreads but admits that there is a low chance of his reads being correct. So his strategy is to a) avoid discussing Enchant because any position in the Enchant drama will result in (eventual) suspicion, b) propose some other scumreads while admitting inconfidence to avoid angering his (town) scumreads or explaining his reads too far, and c) hope his partner's gambit and his own pivoting will allow them both to survive Day 1.
...
Enchant was null in my read. I did not have a reason to scumread them nor did I have a reason to townread them. In my opinion, what was more important was that there was a better than random chance that I was right about that pair in my opinion when I made the post.
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 2:28 pm
by Fredrick A Campbell
esotericzoomer wrote: In post 823, quiet wrote: In post 820, esotericzoomer wrote:myself? i would reread some slots pushing this with me as i doubt mafia would stay passive/neutral in this situation
but im 99.9999999999999999999999% this is just enchant/fredrick
The only real issue from my perspective with the enchant elim is that if they flip town, we have basically no real info.
They did enough suspicious things that pushing on them early doesn't look terribly bad.
Their self-vote openclaim Mafia Goon makes them so suspicious that literally anyone can vote them without looking bad.
There might be some info to find somewhere on a push on them, but frankly, it feels like Day1 part2 if they flip town, and it feels like who gets killed at night or bad solving or something would provide more info that anyone pushing the Enchant slot.
you're being too paranoid
You were overconfident.
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 2:29 pm
by Fredrick A Campbell
In post 829, esotericzoomer wrote:
not being confident in your reads and double-checking everything will drive town into ruin
Having confidence in your reads when you have no reason to place that confidence in your reads will bring you to incorrect conclusions.
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 2:32 pm
by Fredrick A Campbell
In post 1036, Prism wrote:Frederick, it last looks like you were still catching up. Did you ever finish/where are you at?
I'm also wondering what you thought about Enchant, it seemed like you got current near the end w/ responding to Enchant's 869. What did you think about the slot/why were you leaning Salsabil and quiet?
I finished one stretch between posts 853 and the end of the previous day phase. I moved on to the posts between posts 604 and 853 until the night phase was over and reached post 829.
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:24 pm
by flow trap
Are you a medium?
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:25 pm
by flow trap
Also, don't mind me doing a new pair anaylsis
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 5:42 pm
by Prism
In post 1046, quiet wrote:My immediate thoughts were “should have just townlocked them and moved on, this gives us nothing”.
I don’t think particularly anyone stands out as a paragon of scum for how they interacted with that wagon. It’s basically a policy elim at that point. I couldn’t find a hero fold there, so why should I expect anyone else to have?
I think the NK is our best bet for info, but otherwise my immediate take was, great, day1 part2, electric boogaloo. I’m probably being dismissive and I’m sure that there’s some info to be gained, but right now I’m trying to figure out what two wagons help solve the game most today, and will need to review to see if there’s anyone that benefits from an EZ kill. I retain some townreads I feel good about, and I remember townreading EZ (I hope I did, havnt looked back yet still traveling), so there was a lil disappointment there.
Flow doesn’t get NKed, I never do, Fredrick doesn’t, as we had suspicion from yesterday. Spartian falls into that category, but was less sus than us three. I think salsa gets left alive, not over suspicion, but because I think they’re not the scariest town.
I could see floo getting killed, EZ obviously did and was pretty widely TRed if I recall correctly, Prisim you also do often I think, though you fall into the category of scary as a competent scum threat, and may be left alive for that reason.
I’ll need to review as to why EZ was the choice over floo and you. That is my no review (and possibly fallible memory) reaction. When I’m done traveling I’ll read back over and give stronger reads about my suspicious, but other than a TR on Floo which I wholeheartedly retain, I don’t think there’s any that feel locked for me without looking back.
I’m interested in why the push on Fredrick happened, and why it’s still happening. Trying to decide if it’s a good wagon today. I think I’m inclined to hunt somewhere else, but if other people want to champion that I’ll be very interested.
My difficulty here is players tend to shoot for vague feelings of PRs early on, which makes NK analysis difficult. Even if one player is unlikely to shoot Esoteric for dayplay reasons, their teammate might want to, which compounds the issue further. I constantly have to hound my partners to just shoot the person that will be impossible to get voted. I don't want to get in the way of your own NK analysis but I'm not really inclined to play the same speculatory game over reading into dayplay.
Again I am curious as to what "I think I'm inclined to hunt somewhere else [not Frederick]" means in action. I know this is a first pass.
I concur on the Floo townread even though it's more of a lean. Still like the start even if I wish they'd post more.
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 5:57 pm
by Prism
In post 1051, Spartan117 wrote:At the time yes I was sus of EZ and I had some mild suspicion on Flow trap (generally find them hard to read) who I'm not sure if they was on the Enchants wagon at that exact time but was dancing on or around it. Although I had townread Quiets slot before they subbed in I was also concerned of them being a bit too LAMIST and I had and still have that concern with you too, so I found that whole wagon sus pretty much, I agree what enchant did didn't look very good but it was all too easy for everyone to jump aboard.
What do you think now seeing that slot flip? what do you think of your fellow wagoners? How do you feel their motives compared to your own with that wagon?
I was a bit annoyed given that his timeline was blatantly false and basically threw my hands up and said I'll read if I have to Day 2. I also wondered if I was wrong on Esoteric. Now my instinct is to look at you and Frederick, neither of which were on the wagon. If quiet is scum I'm probably going to have to catch him off of forcing errors or bad pushes over one-off posts and analysis, he's clearly capable of faking. I'd townlean it given that he kept up the activity and analysis through the EoD; I had that as +scum with Enchant but that is now obviously not the case.
I don't like that you spent the Enchant wagon not only whiteknighting but openly saying "scum are on the wagon" without really pushing a specific person, and instead pushing someone off wagon.
The votes on the wagon were Esoteric, me, flow trap, quiet, and Enchant. 2 of these are flipped town, 2 of these are townleans for me. One scum is almost certainly off the wagon, and I don't think both being off is a bad bet at all.
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 6:03 pm
by Prism
In post 1058, floo wrote:I don't townread Prism. A lot of vote pressure/suspicion would be the best way to get a read out of a player who stays under the radar by just contributing a lot.
This is a bizarre way to dodge giving a read on me. Pressure is one way to get a read on me but you're not weighing in on the flood of content I'm giving you. Casting it as "staying under the radar" is disingenuous.
Stop dodging my content or vote me.
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 6:05 pm
by Prism
Frederick, esotericzoomer has access to the flip and can see that it flipped town. It's Day 2. You're one of the more experienced players here. It's time to play the game.
VOTE: Frederick
Posted: Fri Jan 22, 2021 6:08 pm
by Prism
In post 1056, Spartan117 wrote:Floo how do you feel about Prism? Would you be willing to join a wagon on them today?
Why am I specified here over Frederick/flow trap/quiet? As far as I can tell you haven't really differentiated between me/quiet and you seem to scumlean flow trap.
Posted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:09 am
by Spartan117
In post 1069, Prism wrote: In post 1051, Spartan117 wrote:At the time yes I was sus of EZ and I had some mild suspicion on Flow trap (generally find them hard to read) who I'm not sure if they was on the Enchants wagon at that exact time but was dancing on or around it. Although I had townread Quiets slot before they subbed in I was also concerned of them being a bit too LAMIST and I had and still have that concern with you too, so I found that whole wagon sus pretty much, I agree what enchant did didn't look very good but it was all too easy for everyone to jump aboard.
What do you think now seeing that slot flip? what do you think of your fellow wagoners? How do you feel their motives compared to your own with that wagon?
I was a bit annoyed given that his timeline was blatantly false and basically threw my hands up and said I'll read if I have to Day 2. I also wondered if I was wrong on Esoteric. Now my instinct is to look at you and Frederick, neither of which were on the wagon. If quiet is scum I'm probably going to have to catch him off of forcing errors or bad pushes over one-off posts and analysis, he's clearly capable of faking. I'd townlean it given that he kept up the activity and analysis through the EoD; I had that as +scum with Enchant but that is now obviously not the case.
I don't like that you spent the Enchant wagon not only whiteknighting but openly saying "scum are on the wagon" without really pushing a specific person, and instead pushing someone off wagon.
The votes on the wagon were Esoteric, me, flow trap, quiet, and Enchant. 2 of these are flipped town, 2 of these are townleans for me. One scum is almost certainly off the wagon, and I don't think both being off is a bad bet at all.
At that time I certainly thought that there was scum on the wagon, as my comments are in reference to what I was thinking at the time. I'm going to have to re-evaluate everyone's slots with the two flips we have seen and re-read everyone with that in mind, I still think there is probably 1 scum between you flow trap and quiet, and possibly 1 scum between Fredrick and Sal, although I'm not saying it couldn't be a Fredrick Sal combo, I just need to look into that to see if I think it could be possible, its hard to see Fredricks partnerships as he is very evasive and a bit of a shut box as far as trying to understand his playing style. If he continues as d1 and doesn't change he will remain my main sus, but I will be watching everyone else as I don't want another situation like Enchants to happen.
Posted: Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:18 am
by Spartan117
In post 1072, Prism wrote: In post 1056, Spartan117 wrote:Floo how do you feel about Prism? Would you be willing to join a wagon on them today?
Why am I specified here over Frederick/flow trap/quiet? As far as I can tell you haven't really differentiated between me/quiet and you seem to scumlean flow trap.
Flow traps a hard one, I certainly did scumlean him, and thought his interactions with EZ were interesting, I wasn't sure if they were 2 scum with how familiar they were with each other, now that we have seen EZ flip, I've got to evaluate and decide if I think it was two towns working together to try and solve the puzzle or Flow trap was trying to pocket EZ, but in that case I don't understand why he would NK him so I'm unsure, I would say at the moment I'm still mostly null on him with it leaning towards town but I find it a hard slot to get a solid read on.
This sounds scummy tbh