Posted: Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:21 pm
My heart wants me to stop believing in it but my head still thinks Pooky is scum T.T
In post 233, Vanderscamp wrote:Your math is wrong.In post 227, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:In post 214, skitter30 wrote:but we're guaranteed at least a scum by flipping thru 3p, no?
going for 6p today means we *might* get a win today but otherwise we end up in a similar space tomorrow with a large hood and an unresolved 3p that if i'm counting right we won't be able to flip through, which by definition means mitigating the chances of netting one scum, if i'm counting this right
it kinda reminds me of coalition of whether we ought to be trying to win (getting the coalition day1) or whether we ought to try to mitigate the losses if we don't get the coalition day1 by getting a coalition that will at least be easier to sort through up failing, as those things aren't always necessarily the same thing.
but i think it's usually better here to net the guaranteed scum and then try to find the other scum in the 6p because while it's not as ~flashy~ it'll help our overall chances of winning
if we go thru the small pool we have
(1/3) We hit scum right away - we are playing 1-6 Mountainous with 1 IC rest of the way. (50% WR)
(1/3) We hit scum on 2nd try - we are playing 1-4 Mountainous rest of the way. (40% WR)
(1/3) We hit scum on last try - we are playing 1-2 Endgame (33% WR)
Overall WR -> 41.1%
if we go thru the big pool we have:
(1/6) we hit scum on first try -> game over
(1/4) we hit scum on second try -> we have 2 shots to elim 1 scum in three people (2/3) victory
We miss both times -> we have a (1/2) shot of hitting scum, then a (1/3) endgame if we hit correctly.
Overall WR -> 50%
The top half is correct, but the chance of hitting scum on the second try is not 1/4, it's 5/6 x 1/4.
I don't know how you got 50% but the equation is
(1/6)x1
+ (5/6 x 1/4) x 2/3
+ (5/6 x 3/4) x 1/2 x 1/3
which is 40.97%.
Going for the big pool first is marginally worse but probably doesn't outweigh wanting to lynch whatever our strongest read is.
But why would he be scum doing it? It seems very genuine to me, and i’ve almost reached the same conclusion.In post 647, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:the essence of his push on me isn't "I scumread Pooky"
it's I town-read everyone else for ___, ____, ____, and _____
It leaves one person out of the equation, notably that's himself.
It's an effective strategy for pushing mis-elims on d1 because you create a coalition/support by handing out townreads to get people to help you, and you create a mutual target for everyone to go after.
It's also incredibly difficult for me to defend against because he's not actually scum-reading me for anything, so there's nothing for me to refute
then tomm after I'm flipped town he will "go back" to his townreads and "think" about where he went wrong.
In post 1048, Vanderscamp wrote:I really, REALLY don't believe you think this, especially since in my 2000 word explanation to you about it I've never once said that it's better to kill into the big pool.
What I just said, and the thing nor just posted, is why I suspect pooky.In post 1050, No Face wrote:My heart wants me to stop believing in it but my head still thinks Pooky is scum T.T
Did you read any of my posts where I respond directly to you about what exactly I think about what pool we should be lynching into?In post 1054, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:In post 1048, Vanderscamp wrote:I really, REALLY don't believe you think this, especially since in my 2000 word explanation to you about it I've never once said that it's better to kill into the big pool.
the way I read your push for my elim because "if you hit in the big pool you win the game and don't need info" made me feel like you were not only advocating for an elim in the 6 pool but you were also saying its fine to do it quickly - which is a convenient take given the game state.
This is you pushing for a quick-hammer on me today.In post 1001, Vanderscamp wrote:But especially in this set, like, I just want the best lynch.
If we kill the scum in the big pool, we autowin the game regardless of how much content we have.
Given the opportunity, I would happily hammer pooky right now.
are you talking about where you say we should always elim whoever is the most suspicious?In post 1056, Vanderscamp wrote:Did you read any of my posts where I respond directly to you about what exactly I think about what pool we should be lynching into?
This is a genuine question.
In post 1052, NorwegianboyEE wrote:But why would he be scum doing it? It seems very genuine to me, and i’ve almost reached the same conclusion.
In post 1057, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:This is you pushing for a quick-hammer on me today.In post 1001, Vanderscamp wrote:But especially in this set, like, I just want the best lynch.
If we kill the scum in the big pool, we autowin the game regardless of how much content we have.
Given the opportunity, I would happily hammer pooky right now.
You say one of the big reasons for this is because we won't need information if I flip scum because the game will be over.
This statement is objectively true but I know I'm not flipping scum so you kind of will need information and it's not good to rush this.
From an uninformed town perspective without knowledge of my alignment which is what you should have, you don't know whether the elim target is scum or town, so you want more information anyway.
No, I mean the posts earlier when you ask me which pool I think is best to lynch into and then I give you very detailed answers (before the part where you incorrectly state what my answer was)In post 1058, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:are you talking about where you say we should always elim whoever is the most suspicious?In post 1056, Vanderscamp wrote:Did you read any of my posts where I respond directly to you about what exactly I think about what pool we should be lynching into?
This is a genuine question.
Ok, that is pretty early.In post 1062, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:we are not even 2 days into a 14 day deadline why are you trying to push a quick hammer?
Pooky’s making it out like it’s an very aggressive push from No Face, when it’s not. And that seems a bit disingenious from Pooky.In post 651, No Face wrote:This really isn't true :<In post 640, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:You can tell this is what he is doing right now with his push on me. It's not alignment sorting - it's push to kill.
Norwee how dead do I have to be before it's considered aggressive?In post 1065, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Pooky’s making it out like it’s an very aggressive push from No Face, when it’s not. And that seems a bit disingenious from Pooky.
I think no case has given a pretty satisfactory answer to this question.....In post 1066, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:Do you think quick elims can't possibly happen?
When a town player votes and that wagon gathers steam esp from people they suspect and in a ruleset where bussing results in auto-lose how does a town player not re-evaluate at that point?
If you got lynched does that make Mena's "push on you" aggressive too?In post 1067, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:Norwee how dead do I have to be before it's considered aggressive?In post 1065, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Pooky’s making it out like it’s an very aggressive push from No Face, when it’s not. And that seems a bit disingenious from Pooky.
I think a huge amount of what he's saying is disingenuous!In post 1065, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Pooky’s making it out like it’s an very aggressive push from No Face, when it’s not. And that seems a bit disingenious from Pooky.In post 651, No Face wrote:This really isn't true :<In post 640, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:You can tell this is what he is doing right now with his push on me. It's not alignment sorting - it's push to kill.
Hmm i don’t think it’s a bad wagon, but i’m also not really willing to let the day end yet if that makes sense.In post 669, Vanderscamp wrote:VOTE: Pooky because what they just said about no face's scum read on them really made no sense at all.
This should be E-1
I like this though. And i think Pooky’s continued push on No Face here and characterizing their push as aggressive or somehow unfounded is a bit dirty.In post 668, No Face wrote:Pooky if you want the reasons why I think you could be scum and have been on the back of No Face's mind:
In the last coalition game you played as town, you were really excited about the prospect of a day 1 win and actively pushed hard for it. But while doing this you were also outting lots of reads are trying to win the game by finding town and scum
In this game, you acted similarly about the big day 1 win but did nothing to help it like giving reads or finding town/scum. It's like you're going through the motions but not doing the fieldwork I saw you were eager to do in that coalition game
:/
Ok i take that back. Mena is the token resistance.In post 688, Menalque wrote:Yes, I hate this wagon so much
Why is this a thing
Basically anyone on the wagon bar maybe ydrasse would be a better wagon
Literally why
If you’re town and at least two of you are why are you throwing