Mini 423: Calvin & Hobbes - GAME OVER!


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Post Post #1100 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2007 8:04 pm

Post by Glork »

PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:I'll be dead tommorrow

That's how you'll know it's unlikely/impossible.
First of all, I don't currently find you to be the most likely nightkill.

Secondly, what happens overnight (assuming the game isn't over by the end of today) has no bearing on what I should be thinking on
right now
. Why should Glork, during Day Five of this game, not knowing what is going to happen either today or tonight (if there is one) or tomorrow (if there is one) reject that theory?
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Post Post #1101 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2007 8:06 pm

Post by Glork »

EBWODP: *Day Four. Whatever.
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Post Post #1102 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2007 8:21 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

are you having fun glork?
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Post Post #1103 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2007 8:29 pm

Post by Glork »

It took you fifteen minutes to come up with *that* response?


Well, yes, I am. I'm becoming increasingly irked by your constant sidestepping; I'd like you to answer my questions directly. But otherwise, I'm enjoying trying to figure out what the heck is going on here.

You *do* realize that you're not doing yourself any favors with the way you're behaving, right? And that you've already taken yourself off of my "solidly protown" list?

Are
you
having fun?
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Post Post #1104 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2007 9:10 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

Most certainly I am!

I do indeed believe an objective onlooker would see me as definitely most certainly protown.

and no I did not slip.

I never slip.
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Post Post #1105 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2007 9:21 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

But still Glorkie

Are you having fun?
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Post Post #1106 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2007 9:23 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

I never realized Glork!

I will certainly most miss being "money in the bank"
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Post Post #1107 (ISO) » Tue Jul 24, 2007 9:23 pm

Post by Mr Stoofer »

V
o
t
e
C
o
u
n
t


Thok: 1 (LML)
LoudmouthLee: 1 (Thok)

Not voting: Glork, VitaminR, PookyTheMagicalBear

With 5 alive it will take just
3
votes to lynch!
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Post Post #1108 (ISO) » Wed Jul 25, 2007 12:15 pm

Post by VitaminR »

I did a re-read yesterday, mulled this over in my head and here are my thoughts:

I think Glork is overreacting to Pooky somewhat here. It was a suspicious backtrack, but Pooky probably had the most cosy position in the game (I don't think anyone had him as scummy) and I don't see Pooky blowing that this easily. I feel like Glork is trying to make too much out of this.

Pooky is the only one here I see as distinctly pro-town.

FOS: Glork


Glork, could you answer my question about why you were convinced about Thok's pro-townness (if there was a reason unrelated to whether or not the set-up is mountainous).

I do agree with Glork that LML's flip wasn't entirely unexpected. He has been somewhat paranoid and all over the place throughout the game. It does bother me - his vote was brash and divisive and I'm not too enamoured with his reasoning - but, all things considering, it fits his behaviour.

I am more concerned with Thok's response.
Thok wrote:I am trying to show how LML is using bad arguments/lies to justify his positions. LML had easily could have said "Using nightkill analysis is WIFOM" and left it at that. He could have asked me to explain why I felt the nightkills were most beneficial to LML. Instead he specifically tried to oversimplify my thoughts about nightkills, just likes he's trying to oversimplify the SV lynch as "coming out of nowhere".
I don't think that really holds. LML's original post contained one line in which he called your argument WIFOM and one line with an inaccurate possible reason. That only really tells me he wasn't too aware of Erg0's play (something that strikes me more as pro-town than scummy).

The overly prudent way in which Thok voted LML also strikes me as insincere.

FOS: Thok
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Post Post #1109 (ISO) » Wed Jul 25, 2007 12:55 pm

Post by Thok »

VitaminR wrote:I don't think that really holds. LML's original post contained one line in which he called your argument WIFOM and one line with an inaccurate possible reason. That only really tells me he wasn't too aware of Erg0's play (something that strikes me more as pro-town than scummy).
If my argument doesn't hold, then why hasn't LML actually responded to it? And you've ignored the fact that I've shown off a pattern.

You're trying to play both sides of the field.
FOS VitaminR

The overly prudent way in which Thok voted LML also strikes me as insincere.
Explain? It's possible that LML is scum, sees a quick-lynch start to happen and unvotes in response. If both of us are voting, it's harder for us to stop a quick-lynch.
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Post Post #1110 (ISO) » Wed Jul 25, 2007 1:04 pm

Post by Thok »

Thok wrote:You're trying to play both sides of the field.
FOS VitaminR
To clarify this, I'll note that today there's been three major arguments (and possibly some minor arguments)

1. Pooky-me over the modkill (VitR has been on my side for this)
2. Glork-Pooky over his discussion (VitR was on Pooky's side)
3. LML-me (Which VitR originally was suspicious of LML for attacking me/following Pooky, and now is FOSing me for "weak arguments")
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Post Post #1111 (ISO) » Wed Jul 25, 2007 1:17 pm

Post by Thok »

This paragraph in post 429 by EmpTyger has been bugging me. (Specifically EmpTyger's bringing up/emphasizing PBug's comment, given that PBug is now LML.) I'd like to hear a second opinion on this from Glork/VitR/Pooky.
EmpTyger wrote:I give up. I’m clearly the only one left who *was* reading the game. For any current and future replacements, here’s what really happened:
Skruffs was attracting votes for arguing flavor with 3 or 4 others, one of who was pj. (foobar was another. I’m not sure about the rest. Maybe remus, but this is really just a stab.) Skruffs is defending himself badly because he is trying to fight his attackers’ flavor-based illogic with his own flavor-based illogic, rather than actual logic. I knock some sense into Skruffs. The flavor discussion ends. PBuG, appreciating the way I ended that, announced that I “won the Internet”.

I reread to see what can be deduced from what happened, and I it is then that I notice how pj seemed to be echoing others and encouraging the flavor discussion. But because of my limited access, I didn’t get to post these observations before the site crashed. As soon as the site came back up, I did. That’s what happened.
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Post Post #1112 (ISO) » Wed Jul 25, 2007 3:37 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

This is Pbug we're talking about.

I can see Pbug posting something like that if he were scum with Empy and I can't see why Empy would be unlikely to bring this up if Pbug were his scumpartner.
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Post Post #1113 (ISO) » Wed Jul 25, 2007 8:09 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

btw stoof
i'll be in London for a seminar Aug 12-19

want to grab a pint sometime if you're available?
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It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

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Post Post #1114 (ISO) » Wed Jul 25, 2007 8:09 pm

Post by VitaminR »

Thok wrote:
VitaminR wrote:I don't think that really holds. LML's original post contained one line in which he called your argument WIFOM and one line with an inaccurate possible reason. That only really tells me he wasn't too aware of Erg0's play (something that strikes me more as pro-town than scummy).
If my argument doesn't hold, then why hasn't LML actually responded to it? And you've ignored the fact that I've shown off a pattern.

You're trying to play both sides of the field.
FOS VitaminR
Hardly. Yes, LML's vote made me uncomfortable. It still does. He was the first to start throwing a vote around and I don't put much stock in the arguments he used. I never said I sided with you, however. I started this day with you on the top of my list, but the way both Pooky and LML came out aiming for you made me feel like it was too easy. They were both way too sure without really gunning for you in the past. That doesn't change the fact that you were still, at that time, at the top of my list.

My last post, if anything, was an attempt to clarify where I am in terms of my suspicions and where I would put myself in the arguments you listed.
Thok wrote:
The overly prudent way in which Thok voted LML also strikes me as insincere.
Explain? It's possible that LML is scum, sees a quick-lynch start to happen and unvotes in response. If both of us are voting, it's harder for us to stop a quick-lynch.
Yes, it's prudent and this is a weak point of mine at best, but how long you waited with your vote struck me as laboured.
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Post Post #1115 (ISO) » Wed Jul 25, 2007 8:12 pm

Post by VitaminR »

Pretty much agree with Pooky on that one.
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Post Post #1116 (ISO) » Wed Jul 25, 2007 9:12 pm

Post by Thok »

VitaminR wrote:Yes, it's prudent and this is a weak point of mine at best, but how long you waited with your vote struck me as laboured.
Do you think I should have ignored the possibility of a quicklynch?

If I was thinking about the possibility of a quicklynch, when would I have considered it safe to vote LML? How far is that from when I actually did vote LML?

Why do you think I'm likely scum? What do you think of EmpTyger's end of the day behavior with repsect to me day 1 (and don't just say WIFOM)? What do you think of my deadline behavior on day 3? You claimed earlier that I have been talking much and not voting; when do you feel I should have voted when I didn't?

Do you think it is relevant whether this game is mountainous or not? Do you have an opinion on this topic (I don't want to know what your opinion is, I want to know if you've thought about this topic, as I believe that you've never really discussed the set-up in the thread.)

Why should we believe you are protown? Note that you were the first person to put pressure on Erg0 day 2 (with an FOS, Glork voted him a bit later), the first person to put pressure on SV day 3, and had that weird flipflop on PJ day 1.

Also, talk to me a little about post 471 and the following discussion between you and EmpTyger.
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Post Post #1117 (ISO) » Thu Jul 26, 2007 11:43 am

Post by VitaminR »

Thok wrote:Do you think I should have ignored the possibility of a quicklynch?
No, I didn't say that. I, in fact, said the opposite.
Thok wrote:If I was thinking about the possibility of a quicklynch, when would I have considered it safe to vote LML? How far is that from when I actually did vote LML?
It was a personal gut note. It is not any more significant than that.
Thok wrote:Why do you think I'm likely scum?
I basically feel that after the initial voting stages of Day 1, you have stopped really pressuring people. You have contributed a lot, but there are few votes and few focussed attempts at pursuing your suspicions. Your M-M vote came after a quick change of mind, late in the day, and you later pursued LML for hammering on it. I liked your push on Glork Day 2, but, other than that, you were fairly absent towards the end of Day 1 and you took a really long time to commit to anything Day 3.

Your contributions are really good. Your arguments are often convincing and original, but I don't get the feeling you're hunting scum as much as you could. Even today, the target you went after seemed to be directed more by OMGUS than your earlier suspicions. I consider that to be a significant tell when it comes to more experienced players. You have the talent to put up convincing arguments, but, along the way, because it's not your main concern, you're forgetting to hunt scum.
Thok wrote:What do you think of EmpTyger's end of the day behavior with repsect to me day 1 (and don't just say WIFOM)?
Emp pulled two stunts, calling Skruffs a cop and calling you vanilla town. That implies some planning. I actually don't find it all too unlikely that Emp would have picked a scum buddy and a townie. It is what I would have done.
Thok wrote:What do you think of my deadline behavior on day 3?
It didn't worry me too much, actually. The modkill thing speaks in your favour rather than against you and I thought the SV vote was justified.
Thok wrote:You claimed earlier that I have been talking much and not voting; when do you feel I should have voted when I didn't?
Pretty much indicated above.
Thok wrote:Do you think it is relevant whether this game is mountainous or not? Do you have an opinion on this topic (I don't want to know what your opinion is, I want to know if you've thought about this topic, as I believe that you've never really discussed the set-up in the thread.)
I have to admit I saw it as a distracting discussion for most of the game, but I do think it's relevant.

I don't know actually how it would work out, though. 2 in 12 seems a bit difficult. I've tried not to look at pairings as much as I normally do and I don't get the feeling there are very strong scum links in this game, but that's about it.
Thok wrote:Why should we believe you are protown? Note that you were the first person to put pressure on Erg0 day 2 (with an FOS, Glork voted him a bit later), the first person to put pressure on SV day 3, and had that weird flipflop on PJ day 1.
Yeah, I made some bad calls. I voted Erg0 because I really wasn't content with the building M-M wagon. SV I still think dug her own grave. The flip on PJ only brought me into trouble and, eventually, the wagon to a standstill. In hindsight, it was probably too whimsical of me, but I genuinely thought he was lying.

My Emp vote late Day 1 did make him the leading wagon, if I recall correctly, and I think that, when I did push for lynches, I was open about it. I would also like to think that even my bad calls were well-considered.
Thok wrote:Also, talk to me a little about post 471 and the following discussion between you and EmpTyger.
I wanted to see how sincere he was. He was being incredibly illogical and stroppy and I was unsure of whether it was put on. In my experience, cornered townies can generally show some sense and humanity if you approach them differently, by appealing to their sense of empathy or something. His response was part of the reason I later said I was very pleased with my vote.
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Post Post #1118 (ISO) » Thu Jul 26, 2007 1:27 pm

Post by Thok »

VitaminR wrote:I have to admit I saw it as a distracting discussion for most of the game, but I do think it's relevant.

I don't know actually how it would work out, though. 2 in 12 seems a bit difficult. I've tried not to look at pairings as much as I normally do and I don't get the feeling there are very strong scum links in this game, but that's about it.
Wait, you've played in a mountainous game won by scum (Mini 319) and you're experienced enough that I would expect you to know that Mountainous seems to favor scum (and in this setup, where it appears we weren't told about the setup being Mountainous and we have flavor issues to distract us, I'd imagine the normal scum advantage is worse than usual). This feels like you're trying to pretend to not know about stuff which you should.
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Post Post #1119 (ISO) » Thu Jul 26, 2007 1:55 pm

Post by VitaminR »

I've played in a fair number of games, yeah, but I haven't modded much. I honestly had to go look up how many scum there were in that mini.
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Post Post #1120 (ISO) » Thu Jul 26, 2007 4:01 pm

Post by Thok »

VitaminR wrote:
Thok wrote:What do you think of EmpTyger's end of the day behavior with repsect to me day 1 (and don't just say WIFOM)?
Emp pulled two stunts, calling Skruffs a cop and calling you vanilla town. That implies some planning. I actually don't find it all too unlikely that Emp would have picked a scum buddy and a townie. It is what I would have done.
Why do you think EmpTyger "planned" this? From my point of view, I can see the two events as separate; the cop thing is a poor attempt by EmpTyger to avoid a lynch, while the thing with me (which came much later) is an attempt to mess with town's head.

Have you ever seen EmpTyger lynched before?

What benefit does EmpTyger get by declaring that he believes me to not be a power role when he did (as opposed to simply not saying anything)?
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Post Post #1121 (ISO) » Thu Jul 26, 2007 4:25 pm

Post by VitaminR »

Thok wrote:Why do you think EmpTyger "planned" this? From my point of view, I can see the two events as separate; the cop thing is a poor attempt by EmpTyger to avoid a lynch, while the thing with me (which came much later) is an attempt to mess with town's head.
I didn't mean planning in terms of preparation, but more in terms of consideration. I think he would have mulled over the effects of something like this, implying that his choices need not be straightforward. The fact that he pulled two stunts is a sign to me that he was intentionally trying to confuse the town.
Thok wrote:Have you ever seen EmpTyger lynched before?
Nope. I have played with him before, but only briefly.
Thok wrote:What benefit does EmpTyger get by declaring that he believes me to not be a power role when he did (as opposed to simply not saying anything)?
With you as town:
- communicating something he found to fellow scum

With you as scum:
- turning you into an unlikely lynch

Both seem plausible to me.
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Post Post #1122 (ISO) » Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:05 pm

Post by Thok »

VitaminR wrote:
Thok wrote:Have you ever seen EmpTyger lynched before?
Nope. I have played with him before, but only briefly.
Go take a look over a few of his games. I suspect you're assuming that his end of day 1 play is much more considered then it really was.
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Post Post #1123 (ISO) » Thu Jul 26, 2007 5:29 pm

Post by VitaminR »

I will. What do you consider to be the implications of that?
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Post Post #1124 (ISO) » Thu Jul 26, 2007 6:02 pm

Post by Thok »

VitaminR wrote:I will. What do you consider to be the implications of that?
I'm curious what sort of answer you're expecting from this question, given that I'm essentially the only person it affects directly.

That said, my belief is that EmpTyger may have made his posts in order to help his partner in a way that was not obvious to us, and that he didn't necessarily consider the drawbacks of his approach. For example, if he felt it was important to mislead town into thinking that the game was not Mountainous, I could see EmpTyger making the end of Day 1 posts which he did.

Mental Note: LML hasn't posted in this game in a while, despite lots of interesting stuff happening.
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