Newbie 2045: A Midwinter Night's Dream - End!

[petapan]

You asked me to be more active and now you both are ignoring me

it has emotions!

i'm sorry i just felt like hashing things out with unwnd took higher priority. i'll be honest though that i'm not sure i have a ton to say to you right now. why do you think you're alive?

[unwnd]

I was convinced by proxy of

Not wanting to be alone in the endless thought chamber that was Quiet/Mikul's posting and merely being alone with my thoughts

[Lunar Martian]

You asked me to be more active and now you both are ignoring me

it has emotions!

i'm sorry i just felt like hashing things out with unwnd took higher priority. i'll be honest though that i'm not sure i have a ton to say to you right now. why do you think you're alive?

Not sure. Probably because Mafia thinks I'm not a threat and to make people ask that question.

[petapan]

I was convinced by proxy of

Not wanting to be alone in the endless thought chamber that was Quiet/Mikul's posting and merely being alone with my thoughts

that doesn't make sense dude

[unwnd]

It's not a substantiated thought but would you rather be wrong about a newbie or wrong about someone who could maybe turn it around and help you win the game

[petapan]

i suppose in general experience gets leeway for that reason and because an experienced player might get nightkilled anyway but it doesn't really explain not trying to question me at all and saying shit like how you were convinced i was town

even now it doesn't come across like you're actually trying to read me? and what was that comment about showing you i don't want to lose the game

[unwnd]

Well it could be newbie game bias. The only bad decision I admit to is having this fallacy in my head of believing you were town because comfort. It's stated in my read towards you on D1. It is more comfortable to be wrong about a newbie in that sense. However, my belief of you is reflected in my voting. I voted after you on Norfolk because make no mistake--I wasn't lying about being fooled EoD1. D2 I started to think differently, and honestly? I panicked a bit. I saw Mikul tinfoiling me, quiet also being somewhat convinced of me. I thought safebet was scum atp (you can check my vote before swapped to quiet) so in my position, it's not looking all too swell. I made a self-pres vote because I wanted to get the chance to make things right and didn't wanna go down there, cause in some wacky world where Safebet is town then he's just being pocketed'; then who knew about Lunar.

As far as the take goes of 'JK I still townread you' in that one post where I start questioning said comfort is like yeah

A bit of a reaction test on my part. Right now what could be happening in a stupid world is you're reaction testing me by reaction testing my reaction test. This is not very feasible to me, but you do say that you're not ready to think I'm scum. OK. Let's start there first. I think Safebet is scum. What do you think?

[unwnd]

I think basically I have to pick between Mafia unwnd who has been sitting back and not doing much and letting town run down the wrong path on its own or Mafia peta who has been actively leading Town down the wrong path. On some pure theory level I think the latter is more likely, as I think it would be unlikely that an SE would use their SE status as an excuse to sit and do nothing as Mafia. Then again, maybe they were trying to teach us a lesson or expecting someone (especially the other SEs) to call them out. Peta not doing more to call out unwnd sooner again makes me think that maybe peta is Mafia, because if peta were town he'd have a stronger motive to call out unwnd for being passive.

It may sound ridiculous, but what have your niight actions been thus far in regards to your role?

[petapan]

thats word salad bro

i dont tend to reaction test much as town i usually say what i mean. i feel like i should do it more, but back in my EM days i would always confirmation bias myself into seeing the result i wanted so i'd rarely find success with them.

mostly i'm just laying it all out and trying to get a feel for if you have any sort of explicable thought process i can understand and so far it's not coming through.

why do you think safebet is scum?

[unwnd]

Because I really think Mikul is town and I think the logic presented as to why Lunar is likely town applies too? Then there's 3 in you/me/Safebet. I don't really feel like it was word salad but I'm fine talking at this level

[petapan]

i meant the first paragraph mainly it just felt like a jumbled mess and still doesn't really make sense with regard to your read on me

what is the logic as to why lunar is likely town?

[petapan]

also it's 4 AM i really need to get a few hours of sleep

[unwnd]

[quote="In post 1092, unwnd"]I really don't think Safebet, who has claimed multiple times being the equilvalent of a mafia dad who spends his time playing mafia who probably still owns windows 98 and plays solitaire,

Makes the calculated choice to shoot at BM and not just shoot in me/you as large proponents of town./quote]

Reiterating this. I don't think a Lunar/Safebet team plays this methodical in their kill choices. Not reading fully into the death as if this means definitive proof but

It's there

[unwnd]

i meant the first paragraph mainly it just felt like a jumbled mess and still doesn't really make sense with regard to your read on me

what is the logic as to why lunar is likely town?

D1 read you were town by effort/helping newbies
D2 read you were less town but I got myself in a self-pres position
D3 we are here now, and I should've just gone there instead of self-presing and made my case

That's basically the best summary I could give

As for Lunar? Think someone said he wouldn't just brazenly claim doctor like that because he'd have to check through the setup? I can buy it

[petapan]

who does a scumteam with lunar on it kill in your opinion? there weren't a ton of options. and, for the sake of this exercise, what about me/lunar?

[petapan]

As for Lunar? Think someone said he wouldn't just brazenly claim doctor like that because he'd have to check through the setup? I can buy it

dude looking through three columns isn't that effing hard do i have to link the minimegabyte game

[unwnd]

You/Lunar could exist? But the thing is that Safebet was scummy to me D2 right. You were just less town. I mentioned this in my #906. I was hedging my bets on well, safebet

If Lunar somehow is scum? Why not just kill Mikul or something. Speaking of that..do you think I'm wrong about Mikul, or could be?

[petapan]

maybe. but probably not. i won't underestimate the hellish deathtunnel on a townie as a scum tactic but content-wise nothing has raised a flag for me there except maybe his certainty on me

you keep throwing out names and probing to see if i might vote someone else but i get no sense whatsoever you care about sorting me

[Mikul]

Yep was just wrong. Said it could have been because he was new and just over thought it. Post flip I was thinking to myself it's very likely we have to go between peta and uwnd because I really doubt they are both town.

Seems others are thinking the same. Going to re read and contemplate more today than post. As I think liming between the two is the best choice.

The battle mage choice confuses me. I can see the doctor not dying. Because if there is a rb. He's in a perma rb state and can be used as a mislynch. If he's scum , of course he's alive and he has that excuse. Still really bleh about BB outing dp1 but is what it is.

I have hard read peta all game. Would scum unwnd let me be alive knowing I'm probably siding with peta regardless. Would scum peta keep me alive because he thinks I will go with him. And why BM. To frame someone off his reads or because he was right.


I still don't mind the quiet lynch. Quiet needed to die to get results either way. Still think he was the best lynch target and we can re examine wagons and what not. Lots to read, will be here but not actively post this dp as much. Want to think more than type.

[Mikul]

Should ask this as well

Does anyone see uwnd and peta both being town. This is probably the least likely of all the outcomes in my mind.

I think if we shoot right in between them , tomorrow is still just as difficult. If we win today the choice tomorrow is whether or not lunar fake claimed. This game is absolutely going to be hard.

[Mikul]

I actually don't think the kill was a methodical as uwnd is making it to be. I think literally everyone , including battlemage had peta and unwnd as town / scum and not town/town or scum/scum. So not killing you two would be the best choice as that is where the lim would go to.

The fact uwnd is pushing on peta right off bat really mitigates it being scum scum

So town / town (unlikely)
Or town / scum (likely)

I still think I'm going uwnd but will fully decide after I re read

[petapan]

let me try to elaborate a little on my feelings here to you, unwnd:

obviously, i suspected you at the end of the day yesterday. at some point it just occurred to me i had the least good reasons to call you town, and i voted you. i can't say your reponse to me was assuring in any regard and the hammer doesn't look good at all. but then the night happens, and i mentally steel myself for a day phase where, if battle mage is town, the game is likely already lost. and then instead of the expected kill of the claimed doctor, battle mage dies. this is more than a little surprising to me, because i would have imagined most scumteams here with you on it keep him alive as he seemed to be in your corner yesterday and was willing to declare you town - he made one throwaway comment about you sounding scummy at the end of the day, but from most perspectives that kill seems unoptimal for you as scum because i don't know where you're planning on getting the winning vote from today. this gives me pause because it seems like the expectation could be for us to tunnel each other. it doesn't help that lunar opens the day pitching a you vs me dichotomy.

so i give you a chance. i question you, i explain my misgivings. and unfortunately your response has hardly been assuring. your responses to me have felt shifty. i don't want to be wrong on you so i'm probing and trying to figure you out. meanwhile you're in self-defense mode trying to rationalize and explain away your actions but i'm not getting the sense of any similar process on your end. the way you've spoken about me has been seemingly in service of a narrative, mostly you've just been asking about my reads on other people, but it feels like you're looking to see if i'm willing to vote them, not that you want to try to understand my thinking. it feels like you just don't want to consider the possibility i'm town because it'd be inconvenient.


ultimately if we're both town we deserve the L for this game and i'm probably worse off on that end but i have no idea what you're doing here if you are town

[unwnd]

I'm gonna break your post down and respond to it to the best of my ability.

obviously, i suspected you at the end of the day yesterday. at some point it just occurred to me i had the least good reasons to call you town, and i voted you. i can't say your reponse to me was assuring in any regard and the hammer doesn't look good at all.

In regards to yesterday, what made you wait until then? As in that very moment on D2. Your vote on me both slightly annoyed me and slightly concerned me. There's been a lot of preemptive talk about slots but your commitment between each has been pretty loose/adaptable to the thread. If you're scum I can't make you admit you're scum so this point is there. If you're town however? I'm just wondering personally what you gained out of a vote. Was it..cause you thought I was scum? Pressure? And if you thought I was scum, where does it matter in terms of other players? I'm getting ahead of myself a bit.

but then the night happens, and i mentally steel myself for a day phase where, if battle mage is town, the game is likely already lost. and then instead of the expected kill of the claimed doctor, battle mage dies. this is more than a little surprising to me, because i would have imagined most scumteams here with you on it keep him alive as he seemed to be in your corner yesterday and was willing to declare you town - he made one throwaway comment about you sounding scummy at the end of the day, but from most perspectives that kill seems unoptimal for you as scum because i don't know where you're planning on getting the winning vote from today.

To be honest, this doesn't sound like you scumread me? Like, this paragraph alone. Moreover, we both were on Illwei for a bit D1, which is the slot that BM replaced into. There was a time D1 you agreed with me, and so I voted Illwei and even developed some thoughts to explain the vote. With you, I'm just wondering where we agree on Illwei right then BM replaces in and then it seems like all that D1 talk didn't amount to anything. There's no need for me to say 'it's YOU not sorting', but why hesitate on BM and not interact with him? Because I was reading you like 'OK, maybe peta was right on Illwei (and in turn me) and I should revisit that.' BM became town though, and then you never really gave a stance otherwise.

this gives me pause because it seems like the expectation could be for us to tunnel each other. it doesn't help that lunar opens the day pitching a you vs me dichotomy.

Again getting ahead of myself but I asked about Mikul because in my head I am willing to entertain us being intentionally pitted against each other. Your response here suggests you're not willing to give up the idea of Lunar possibly being scum. is this because of how the night went down, or was this something you always worried about? If it was always something you worried about..then..why hesitate. Why let me continually be wrong, cause at that point I was resigned to Lunar just being town (reflected in my readpost). I know you're not

that

scared.

so i give you a chance. i question you, i explain my misgivings. and unfortunately your response has hardly been assuring. your responses to me have felt shifty. i don't want to be wrong on you so i'm probing and trying to figure you out. meanwhile you're in self-defense mode trying to rationalize and explain away your actions but i'm not getting the sense of any similar process on your end. the way you've spoken about me has been seemingly in service of a narrative, mostly you've just been asking about my reads on other people, but it feels like you're looking to see if i'm willing to vote them, not that you want to try to understand my thinking.

I don't know what you're thinking. That's why we're here if we're both town. I feel like there has been a strange amount of disconnect, not just in regards to me. It's explained briefly in my thoughts with regards to something like your Illwei read. All of my prodding thus far and me going 'hey, what do you think of Mikul' etc. is very deliberate and not a means of narrative, I don't know why you think that at all. Any regards to self-defense to me is necessary because if this is just misunderstanding then I want to clarify it. What you say about 'seems like you're just seeing if I'm willing to vote them' is absolutely true, because there is still one more scum left and I'm trying to see where your commitments could lie.

[Mikul]

As a note I have just played badly. This game. Reading back I tunneled way to hard. I was sure I was right and always openly admit to when I was just really off. Quiet was an example of that. Even re reading this in hindsight I can see that easier .


The one thing I can't shake is the difference in meta with uwnd. He keeps saying this is meta for him but the more I read his games. The more I don't see it.

I'm starting to think safebet is the best option

Why

If unwnd and peta are scum town fighting. We already have lost. They can't both be scum fighting this way. Or I don't see it. I'm still inclined to believe lunar.


So

Peta / safebet
Uwnd / safebet

I think the obvious thing to do is go for the common denominator

[safebet222]

I'm here and reading... Just way too busy to post.

@peta and unwnd... I hope you two can stop bickering and see what mikul is trying to do.