In post 1084, We brought pizza wrote:There's nothing that says there has to be scum on an elim wagon, there just usually is because of probability
In this case, the belief there's 2-3 scum on the elimination wagon tho is based on the names off of it.
The names off of it are BBMolla, myself (I am town), Klick (who is flipped town), clidd (who is flipped town), willow (who I strongly townread), and shadowslug (who I also strongly townread).
For the elimination wagon to be all town, it would require the scumteam to be exactly {BBMolla, willow1, shadowslug}.
In other words--for every name off the wagon you believe to be town, you must add a scum ON the wagon.
If you believe willow is town, that's a minimum of one scum.
If you believe willow and shadowslug are town, that's a minimum of two scum.
If you believe willow, shadowslug, and Molla are all town (I don't; see also, voting Molla), then you must, inherently, believe three scum are on the wagon.
The elimination wagon having 2-3 scum on it is thus, a guarantee. Not an assumption.
The only question is which of the names you believe to be the scum, since you can make a compelling argument for literally every single member of the wagon being scum. (4-5 of the members of the wagon are town, so with only 2-3 as scum, the wagon while sucking was still inherently made more of town than of scum.)
This is actually one of the reasons I prefer voting Molla, too.
Unless you believe all three scum were on the wagon, the odds of finding scum off the wagon are actually higher. If there's one scum off the wagon, there's a 33% chance of finding them objectively (tho subjectively it jumps to 100% being Molla). In contrast, on the Klick wagon, 2/7 comes out to objectively ~29%. (Admittedly, tho, 3/7 is ~43%. So if the wagon has three scum on it rather than two scum, obviously the odds there are better. So the question on whether to vote Molla becomes: do you believe that there's 2 scum on the Klick wagon, or 3? If 2, vote Molla; if 3, vote someone on the wagon.)
Correct--if you're planning on fakeclaiming a guilty on me tho, I should warn you that you're in for a
rude
surprise. One that I will not be claiming even if run up.
I did activate a power, so I am currently not vanilla, but this power was one that fundamentally cannot visit another player. So for all intents and purposes, I am effectively a VT. (I suppose it wouldn't hurt to check to see if activating the power counted as a self-visit, but I fundamentally could not have visited another player last night.)
