Choose Carefully Mafia: (Game Over)

[The Fonz]

^^^

Whilst I don't believe multiple scumgroups need to be exactly balanced as long as each gets a decent shot, the setup of this game strongly suggests symmetry.

[CarnCarn]

armlx, what does a non-symmetrical arrangement of the neighbors do to the balance?

Bad shit.

Like what

Gives one group more info then the other, which leads to differing win percentages between supposedly even groups.

I don't really think it does. For example, if we have:

S1-T, S2-T, and S1-T again

The S1 still doesn't know what their neighbor's alignment is. They have to play guess the mod and decide whether their neighbor is town or opposite mafia, which is the whole point of Neighbor anyway. If they assume symmetry, then S1 assumes one neighbor is scum and another town. If they don't think it's symmetry, then they're both town from S1's perspective. But, all of this is contingent on them trying to guess the mod correctly, which means they really don't have any more info than the other team, except to know that there are at least 2 neighbor groups, knowledge which I don't really see as helping that much.

This is really just for curiosity, I guess, while we wait for SocioPath to claim. Like The Fonz, I too think symmetry is strongly suggested here.

[bird1111]

Vote Count:

Not voting (7): armlx, Santos II, SocioPath, ribwich, Battle Mage, ZazieR, CarnCarn

With 7 alive it is 4 to lynch.

Lynch Method Vote Count:
Gun (0): No one
Rope (0): No one

Not voting for a lynch method (7): armlx, Santos II, SocioPath, ribwich, Battle Mage, ZazieR, CarnCarn

Right now, if a lynch goes through, the town will not be able to figure out how to kill the person

[SocioPath]

I am a Cop, except I can only get guilties on Corsican. Which obviously goes against Rule 23 on the first page, but I obviously didn't want to point out that earlier. (Feel free to change it now though if you wish. )

Night choices should be fairly obvious for early on, if you couldn't tell from the who I was going after at the beginning of the game.

N1: STD, Not Corsican.
N2: Santos MK II, Not Corsican.
N3: No Choice due to holidays. =\
N4: No Choice again, and I completely missed the entire day of it as well. =\

I am a

Mafia Goon

, but I am not telling you which one

I choose

CarnCarn

to claim next.

Santos MKII pretty much threw the game away for the Sicilians with that post.


And now

PokerFace

should claim next.

[Santos]

lol

[Santos]

Vote: Gun

[PokerFace]

Vanilla Townie here too.

I think that's everybody assuming Armlx doesn't have anything to add to his claim. If he does he should say it now.

I'll rewrite/post analysis on players shortly. This week was busy and site wasn't up for all of it.

[CarnCarn]

SocioPath's claim reeks.

[Santos]

SocioPath: I was thinking the same thing since a cop already died and was apparently a normal cop and not one with a special investigative decision like

Moses

.

[SocioPath]

SocioPath: I was thinking the same thing since a cop already died and was apparently a normal cop and not one with a special investigative decision like

Moses

.

If I was to be lynched or NK'd, I'm positive that I would be just labeled as a cop as well.

What it seems from Moses' posts on the cop, is that either he got to choose which he would get results for, or may also have been faking ignorance to not give away that he was a cop that got guilties on Sicilians.

If the case was the first, then for symmetry there would be a third cop for Sicilians, which I don't see as being balanced.

From the amounts of neighbors and pairings, this game seems to rely heavily on symmetry, with a cop each having the ability to find half the scum and useless for the other half.
(Reminds me of the Elemental Cult Mafia game with 4 Cults and cops each being able to find 2 of the 4.)

[armlx]

SocioPath's claim reeks.

This.

I'd be leaning Socio and Santos being the scum, but if that's true the lynch method should be determined outside of Socio's "results"

[The Fonz]

From the amounts of neighbors and pairings, this game seems to rely heavily on symmetry, with a cop each having the ability to find half the scum and useless for the other half.

Symmetry is a good point. Unfortunately for you, one uninhibited cop is just as symmetrical as two limited ones.

I don't trust the claim. And frankly, i'd be amazed that a cop who missed an investigation would be left unreplaced to miss another.

Then again, the idea of Santos II as Sicilian fits with the read i have on his role, as being tied to STD/Detspeed.

[The Fonz]

I'd also point out that, if SP is fakeclaiming, it's in his interest to get out the 'right' and not the 'wrong' method for killing Santos.

[armlx]

I'd also point out that, if SP is fakeclaiming, it's in his interest to get out the 'right' and not the 'wrong' method for killing Santos.

No, not at all. As scum SP wants us to whiff on a lynch, as otherwise we get 2 shots to hit him instead of 1.

[The Fonz]

If he's wrong, he's outed as scum.

[PokerFace]

Ok I think the best way to do this analysis is to first look at who would most likly be scum in what faction

if it is 3/3

and then look at who would most likly be scum in what faction if its 2/2.

Sociopaths claim reeks and pretty much goes against the game rules of choosing which mafia to inspect. His post at the bottom of page 20 reeks of scum knowing Santos1 is town and thus not wanting to caught on the wagon of Santos1.

All in all, looking at the Santos wagoning, it seems both scum driven, as well as town driven.

Santos seems town to me, especially given with his meta.

One person attacking him though, has rubbed my scumdar the wrong way, but I shall see how this continues.

Why would you want to see how it continues? You are going to allow the person you think is scum to lynch a townie?

I can't find anything linking EJ to Socio but i can find a few things linking Socio to Detspeed. He thought STD or Detspeed was scum for no reason in this post

I swear, no matter what game it is I play in, if I am a regular townie, I am always a terrible player.

That is, unless he is just an Alt, then my read on him is shot to pieces.

Socio: Who do you suggest as scum then?

STD.

Clearly his only reasons were inside info. This was likly distancing. if there are 3 sicilans then I think the last one is Santos2. Socio also suspected him and this time for a bullshit reason

I expect this will be a boring day..

oEJo is obviously the lynch today, but there's no reason to just rush to it without letting everyone make a comment or 2 about stuff.

Like for example, how STD is scum, and Santos MK II is his scum buddy. All of day 1, STD his play was pretty good townie play...right up until it was revealed he was a neighbor. From that point, it was less of an uninformed majority viewpoint from him, to a more of knowing what was going on. The blatentness of trying to look as uniformed as he did, while every other neighbor didn't even try to feign ignorance, rubs me the wrong way. Most likely scum trying to appear as uninformed as possible, but not knowing where to draw the line. His guity conscience only became more apparent with his reaction to me saying his name.

Vote: Save The Dragons
Vote: Rope

For Santos MKII, rereplacing into the game, call it a hunch.

Vote: Santos MK II
Vote: Rope

But for the sake of today for lynching obvious scum:

Vote: oEJo
Vote: Gun

As far as parter, I have few ideas, the only one that stands out though is Empking with his anxiousness to lynch both days, brief typing style when otherwise not lurking, and general elusiveness.

Thank you for pointing out your scum buddies to us.

Posts 951, 971, 973
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 37#1395237
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 39#1397239
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 39#1397239
It would appear Bird111 made a mod error on page 39. Santos2 was already voting detspeed, then he unvoted which would give detspeed one less vote and then he somehow hammered? Long story short though, this reveals to us 2 things.
1) Detspeed was already on detspeed wagon (Third on to be precise, which was when detspeed had little evidence against him.)
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 40#1379540
2) It also reveals that santos paniced when detspeed selfvoted. He paniced to the point where he obviously forgot where his vote was and thus desperatly tried to hammer his buddy

without really giving any reasoning of his own.

Pattern much? Nice job taking a page from Sociopath's playbook right there.

I am a

Mafia Goon

, but I am not telling you which one

I choose

CarnCarn

to claim next.

Nice Claim. DIE!

_________________

Hers what i got on Zazy

Are you allowed to quote PM's?! Because i think you just made a mistake.

Either she knew what the neighbor pm looked like because her scumbuddy showed it to her pregame (I assume scum could talk pregame) or she is assuming this is a real pm based on her knowledge of having a scum buddy that is a neighbor. Zazy shows specifically that she is EJ's partner in these posts.

Am I getting the blame that PP left?
This was my second game with him and I was probably the nicest to him in the first. He called me a *Beep* probably due to the third game.

CC, I was hoping that the

other scum

would kill oEJo for us. That's why I posted it. I was hoping that they would when someone gave a comment about it. But this plan was destroyed when someone gave a comment to my plan.

Need to do a reread as the new guy posts long posts and I need to look for some scummy things.

I think this could be a slip. First you wanted EJ to stay alive longer which would help your group and second you said other scum group since you can't shoot your own buddy.

I don't like all this attention regarding the neighbours. Santos acts scummy. oEJo has the strangest argument regarding his vote. But all the other neighbours are getting the attention of being a neighbour. I don't think from what I've seen this game that they deserve it. I think I need to check those players who are putting a lot of attention at the neighbours.

This post shows more favoritism toward EJ and Satnos1 pair being under suspicion. Zazy should be shot if 3/3.

_________________

Post 551 Ribwich shows that if its 3/3 he is partners with someone in EJ&Santos1 pairing.

Alright, first off I'm going to apologize for not delivering on the post by post analysis I had previously promised. I was working on it, but it was just taking way too long to do.

Regarding the neighbor roles, I don't think we should go too much into it. There's just too many possibilites for what could happen even with 3 groups

(And I have suspicions that there could be a fourth group as well.)

1. T-T T-S1 T-S2
2. T-T T-T S1-S2
3. T-T T-T T-T
4. T-S1 T-S2 T-SK
5. T-S1 T-S2 S1-S2

There's some that are much more likely than others, but in the end it turns into a matter of outguessing the mod. Where I do think this will come in handy though is in trying to figure out which lynch method to use later on in the game. Once we have somebody that is confirmed scum, if we suspect another person in the neighbor groups, we can use the symmetry to find out what they're immune to. I don't think we should use the symmetry to find out WHO to target, but instead should use it to figure out HOW to target them.
...

I do believe Santos is scum for many of the other reasons people have brought up. There is one post he has made though that everyone else seemed to have disliked for an entirely different reason than me though.

...

Vote: Santos
Vote: Gun

At first he doesn't want to lynch the neighbors and then he goes back and undermines himself in the same post by voting a neighbor. He obviously knew someone in the pairing was scum

but was not anxious to bus.

Which is why he implicated Santos1. if 3/3 He is obv EJ's scum buddy. You want further proof at what I'm getting at?

Now that the mod has confirmed that Santos was town, I do agree that the fact that oEJo did not know this does make him scum.

However, it might be in our best interest to not lynch him. We know that he's scum, but we don't which side he's on. The other scum team does though. I'm thinking we might want to go after somebody else, and let the scum deal with him. That way, oEJo still gets killed, we get another shot at killing scum today, and there's one less townie that could get potentially killed at night.

We're done here. He tried to give EJ an out or chance to stay alive longer. Scum almost never try to kill lynchbait or other scum on night1.

Does anyone agree with me that we would be better off letting the opposing scum team deal with oEJo?

In these posts Rib continues to give EJ's reprieves.

My take is that scum would naturally try to vote for the weapon they are immune to (under no pressure) and would try to WIFOM out if they are pressured. Like I said, it's not much to go on either way, but that's my reasoning.

Post 644^ What carn said after voting gun shortly before

Another point that's fairly weak: when he was voting Santos he still had his vote on gun. If he truly believed Santos was scum, he would have voted for the weapon he was immune to since obviously they couldn't be scum partners.

It isn't a lot to go off, but unless something else comes up I'm going to go ahead and

Vote: Rope

How rib saved EJ again in Post 645^

Unvote: oEJo

There's a possibility that I think a lot of people if not everybody has overlooked. I want to make sure about this before commiting to a lynch.

oEJo, other than the fact that your name would be switched with his, did you have the exact same role PM as Santos?

For Fuck's sake, if it 3/3 Shoot Chrono/Ribwich/Fonzie! Hell would you like more proof he had inside info EJ was scum. See posts 714 - 729. Carn was on the right track there.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 81#1351381
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 09#1351609
Well that's all I got for 3/3 scenario.

If its 2/2

then players with worst claims are more likly scum. Santos2 and Socio.

Couldn't find anything really linking Socio to EJ. As long as I did not misinterpretet the first post I quoted here. Meaning he would have more precise reasons for thinking santos1 was town. But since he did not mention his own attachment to EJ I'm fairly sure my read is right and he should be hung.

This would leave Santos 2 as EJ's partner. There were a couple of times he defended EJ as well so i suppose he could fit in that scum group:
First Santos2 post
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 56#1352056

What has been decided on the symmetry theory? I don't trust it, but I wouldn't want to ignore it either. Its really hard to decide. The only thing that really put me off was oEJo's lack of effort to explain his vote, but that has already been discussed and I'm over that issue. Ah well.

Unvote: Gun

oEJo will not hammer himself because he maintains he is town, right?

Santos2 unvote's gun which is what could kill EJ on that same day Nov 13 which is the same day santos2 came into the game

Idea: Cop investigates oEJo tonight and if he is NOT scum, then we move on. If he is scum, then we lynch him tomorrow?

Thoughts----

All those posts were on Nov 13 my Time zone

*Final summary*

[mrow]

Player Name

[col]Chace they are Scum[col]Chance they are Sic[col]They are Cors

Socio

[col]80[col]75[col]25

Santos2

[col]100[col]50[col]50

Zazy

[col]50[col]40[col]60

Fonz

[col]65[col]10[col]90

Carn

[col]00[col]45[col]55

Armlx

[col]00[col]55[col]45
I don't think armlx and carn are scum. If i was wrong I'd say Armlx was Sic for his slight early defense of Detspeed's newb card and Carn would be with EJ for slight indifference with voting HP leaves over voting obv scum EJ when santos1 was revealed town. BUt I'm not in the mood to discuss this further since I'm pretty sure both of them are town as my earlier post pointed out.

I got stronger impression of what scum group Socio is in over Santos. though i'm pretty sure they are both scum especially since Santos 2 confessed. Should we lynch santo2 or socio today?

[PokerFace]

Messed up that chart. chase they are scum is funny but should say chance they are scum and that last column should be "chance" they are corscian

[armlx]

If he's wrong, he's outed as scum.

This is true. 3 lynches is exactly enough.

Still think he is scum.

Anyways, I'm down with this Gun lynch Santos stuff. If its 3/3 he's a sure shot to die, which is what we need to win. If its 2/2, he's still a sure shot.

Vote Santos
Vote Gun

[CarnCarn]

PF, Santos is like 100% scum with STD/Detspeed. His willingness to protect oEJo D1 doesn't in any way mean that he's more likely to be buddies with oEJo. I think Moses made this very good point earlier: Scum perfer mislynches so that they have more NKs - Santos would protect oEJo D1 even if he were opposite mafia from oEJo.

The 3/3 situation is something I don't want to think about because, then, it's pretty much academic that I lose anyway.

Vote: Rope

[SocioPath]

Sociopaths claim reeks and pretty much goes against the game rules of choosing which mafia to inspect.

Yes, it DOES go against the rule that is STATED, I know this, I stated this. Which is why it screws me as far as trying to clear my role.

His post at the bottom of page 20 reeks of scum knowing Santos1 is town and thus not wanting to caught on the wagon of Santos1.

There are 2 scum groups, scum doesn't know who is an isn't town, or else their night kill choices would be less of a gamble.

Why would you want to see how it continues? You are going to allow the person you think is scum to lynch a townie?

I wasn't going to let the lynch happen, nor did I. At that point is when STD was still heavily grilling Santos and I didn't want to distract him with my accusations yet.

Clearly his only reasons were inside info. This was likly distancing. if there are 3 sicilans then I think the last one is Santos2. Socio also suspected him and this time for a bullshit reason

I had already suspected STD, hence why I stated my case, a very valid case. I saw him as scum the second he claimed neighbor, hence why I investigated him. I wasn't going to let up because I knew my results are only half accurate.

And yes, my vote on Santos MK II was a bullshit reason, it was merely stating what my night choice was going to be that night. Why? Specifically because I -highly- dislike players rejoining games they previously were already in, so I was determined to target him. (I even said such in my night choice. XD Not that the mod could clarify that.)


Anyways I'll investigate PokerFace tonight, because I'm not going to let him slip through the cracks.

Todays lynch choice is more obvious in my eyes than others.

Vote: Santos MK II
Vote: Rope

[armlx]

Unvote Gun, Vote Rope

Was confused about which group was which.

[The Fonz]

Now you're getting it.

Vote: Santos II
Vote: Rope

[armlx]

I just thought of a scenario where Santos could be town, but its really stupid and he gained nothing over a straight up vanilla claim if he is.

[PokerFace]

I rather doubt he's town, because if its the scenario I think you are refering to, a vanilla claim could have worked just as well for that purpose

You can say the scenario out loud if you think its not getting a cross, or as long as you feel it is safe to say it out loud.

I think he is still at L-1 so no one has hammered yet.

[armlx]

I rather doubt he's town, because if its the scenario I think you are refering to, a vanilla claim could have worked just as well for that purpose

This was my conclusion.

The thought was that he was a townie assuming it was 3-2-2, and that the best way to mess with mafia kills is to claim scum..... Which is REALLY loose.