Open 459: There is a New Scum in Town. Game Over Town Wins!

[Majiffy]

Yeah because 150 posts isn't anything.

[borkjerfkin]

Is there any evidence that penguin's read on LS changed between #895 and the hammer? Otherwise who cares how many posts it was?

[buldermar]

Can the above be simplified? I need a road map about halfway through the first sentence.

I don't think it can, but I can try to explain it.


uct says: I'm not voting Maenara because she reminds me of myself when I'm town.
Maenara says: This is a stupid reason not to vote me, therefore I'm voting you.
I say: Maenara, voting someone over a stupid reason for not voting someone is in itself a stupid reason. If he does what you are doing right now when he is town (this is where my difficult sentence explains what it is Maenara is doing) then you will still remind him of himself in this game.

[buldermar]

Bork why am I included in your list in #1073?

It's a gut thing mostly based on your brief interaction with me around ~440. Not much has changed about my opinion of you since then. I've been going back and forth on whether or not asking about this is a towntell or not and I think that self aware scum might do it too so I'm calling it null.

Mollie that gambler's fallacy stuff from Nacho is tongue-in-cheek (and is an appropriate response as any to the original silly question from NS anyway). I find it odd you're calling attention to it.

I find it odd that you find it odd.

it should be obvious that I was reading nacho's posts in iso and I cam across it. I conceded the point to buldey that nacho was not using it as an argument however I am not ruling out the implication piece that would certainly go along with it wit the original intent of the post. ----> looking at body of work and still haven't entirely solidified my opinion.

I find it odd that you find it odd that he finds it odd.

I don't think it was obvious at all that you were reading Nacho's posts in ISO. In fact, when I pointed out that he wasn't actively applied the fallacy, I thought it was suspicious that you brought it up because

that

appeared obvious to me.

[buldermar]

Can the above be simplified? I need a road map about halfway through the first sentence.

I actually could follow all of that. in other words projection isn't a scumtell.

This is both a correct and accurate interpretation of what I said. I guess it can be simplified then - thanks!

[Majiffy]

Bork - If you actually read Penguin's post that you're accusing him of flip-flopping on LS, it actually doesn't do such a thing at all. The majority of the post focuses on NS's and Director's interactions and eventual L-1/Hammer (respectively) on LS. He never said "lol guys LS was obvtown u so dumb" or anything like that. But if you read his posts between 895 and the hammer you see that he was still asking questions and trying to determine the alignment of LS.

Bulder - Ok. I'm not really sure going down this avenue is helping much though. All I can think when I'm reading this whole exchange is "so what?"

[buldermar]

Why do you automatically buy into the theory that it's 1 off 1 on a wagon on town?

This. I find that weird because I've seen this premise not hold true several times already within a limited span of games.

[Majiffy]

Also I don't think you understand why Maenara placed his vote.

[Maenara]

Buldermar.

I remind him of himself when he's town.

I'm not like him in this game.

He's basically claiming scum.

[pirate mollie]

I am revisiting this post and breaking it down a bit. I was a bit dismissive and maybe rude earlier, I was trying to shake you down a bit and I still say there is strong indication that you might be scum.

Meh. I still think we will find scum in uct/ns/bork. I haven't really addressed penguin because that's been a solid town read for me and everyone had seemed to agree up until now.

I have had penguin person as a solid town read too although I think the director brought up good points. I hope it doesn't scare her instead I hope it gets her more active.

Let me spill the beans on my majiffy read. I do think there is a chance he's scum. I've been putting this off because (was it director?) said that majiffy loves to bus as scum (I used to be the same way lol).

he does love to bus as scum. and he is fucking retarded about it IMO. I knew this at the start of the game cos we already had a convo about it just discussing scum play in general. heavier meta read pending maybe.

If that's the case and he already brought us Fe, I was kind of hoping he would lead us to another scum and then we could lynch him for the win.

well if majiffy is scum he kind of did when he went after you before fe.

That's part of what made me so excited when he was supporting my LastWagon. But then Last flipped town and for the second day in a row, I was dead wrong which is really weird for me. And at the same time, another game just ended where I was dead wrong. Like this is to the point where I feel like I need to change my whole approach to mafia again, which does happen as the game evolves. Anyone who has been around a few years will understand. For example, nacho isn't the same player he was when he first came to the site.

players evolve and so does site meta, lol. a hard reset is required if you are town and you have been trolleytracking on town players. do you feel like that is what you have been doing? if so I have not noticed it.

But anyway, back to Majiffy. Is he scum who bussed Day 1, saw it wasn't working, and ran a bussing-style lynch on a townie? Or is he town who just got it right Day 1? Honestly, his play looks town other than that and it's hard to lynch someone for a bussing meta because if he's a good scumhunter, it just means his bussing meta will screw him in his better town games.

well yeah. you still haven't explained why you think I am a good scumhunter though.

But yeah, I've been hesitant to share all of this just in case he was scum who decided to bus.

lol

I don't know. Part of me wants the game over with so I can evaluate the changes the game has gone through. There has to be a reason for this slump.

could you clarify what you mean by slump tia

[buldermar]

Bulder - Ok. I'm not really sure going down this avenue is helping much though. All I can think when I'm reading this whole exchange is "so what?"

What would be the motive for Maenara deliberately voting uct for not voting her because her play reminds him of himself when he's town given the premise that Maenara did so without finding that scummy? The motive would be scummy. The question that begs to be answered, then, is if Maenara did so without finding it scummy, or actually found it scummy that uct didn't vote her because she reminded him of himself when he's town. I'm considering voting Maenara over this because I really struggle understanding why this would appear scummy to her. On the contrary, I can see how she looked at this and decided that it could be used as a convenient way of jumping on the wagon. But I've had a wrong read on Maenara before so I'm hesitating.

[buldermar]

Also I don't think you understand why Maenara placed his vote.

This is entirely correct - I don't.

[buldermar]

Buldermar.

I remind him of himself when he's town.

I'm not like him in this game.

He's basically claiming scum.

How are you not like him in this game?

[borkjerfkin]

@bulder: I thought Maenara was implying that UCT scumslipped, like "she reminds me of how I play when I'm town" => UCT is not town this game otherwise he'd just have said "she reminds me of how I'm playing".

I don't agree that it's a scumslip.

p-edit -- went to the bathroom between typing and posting and like eleventy billion posts popped up

[Maenara]

How are you not like him in this game?

That's an ass-backwards question.

How

am

I playing like him?

The whole wording is just completely counter-intuitive for a townplayer.

[borkjerfkin]

Majiffy, all I see from penguin pre-lynch is an acknowledgement that the case has merit, whatever the hell the second half of #895 means, a probe asking LS to explain stuff (#936) with no follow-up (quickhammer may have interfered but you can't genuinely call this scumhunting without any analysis).

Next day it's not only calling the hammer bad, it's also "I'm more interested in how we ended up lynching Lastsurvivor yesterday based off a bunch of mud-slinging." (#1058). Something is wrong there.

[Majiffy]

You can't have analysis if you don't have time to. Which is why penguin was so pissed off at the quickhammering.

[pirate mollie]

Bork why am I included in your list in #1073?

It's a gut thing mostly based on your brief interaction with me around ~440. Not much has changed about my opinion of you since then. I've been going back and forth on whether or not asking about this is a towntell or not and I think that self aware scum might do it too so I'm calling it null.

Mollie that gambler's fallacy stuff from Nacho is tongue-in-cheek (and is an appropriate response as any to the original silly question from NS anyway). I find it odd you're calling attention to it.

I find it odd that you find it odd.

it should be obvious that I was reading nacho's posts in iso and I cam across it. I conceded the point to buldey that nacho was not using it as an argument however I am not ruling out the implication piece that would certainly go along with it wit the original intent of the post. ----> looking at body of work and still haven't entirely solidified my opinion.

I find it odd that you find it odd that he finds it odd.

I don't think it was obvious at all that you were reading Nacho's posts in ISO. In fact, when I pointed out that he wasn't actively applied the fallacy, I thought it was suspicious that you brought it up because

that

appeared obvious to me.

you pointed out the flaws in the reasoning for me pointing out what I thought was an implicated fallacy after I already made the post in which I already pointed what I thought were implicated in the original post he made. hth

I conceded your point that he was not using this as an argument so no, no gambler's fallacy.

I was reading his posts in iso, which is something I rarely do and there might be a reason for it!

[Majiffy]

Bulder-Maenara conversation can end now because
a) It doesn't have any merit
b) It's not going anywhere
c) It was started off false premises
d) Neither party understands that the other party doesn't understand
e) It's already been cleared up via bork
f) It's cluttering the thread.

Thanks people.

[pirate mollie]

erm no, it needs to happen if town wants to find town. I have buldey as town and leaning towards maenara (although she has exhibited scummy behaviour) they need to have a talk if we are lynching kmd (which we really need to do, or you).

[Majiffy]

Fruitless, meritless conversations don't help town.

And we're not lynching KMD, we're lynching Uct. Now hop on the wagon.

[Kmd4390]

While I think uct is scum and maenara is town, 1133 makes no sense at all. Failed logic is a scum claim now? I don't get it.

------------

Mollie, can you quote director's post? I didn't think there was a case on penguin and it sounds like I just missed it.

On majiffy, I already know you are wrong on him bussing me after fe. So if he's scum, this isn't the case from my point of view. So that really doesn't help my thinking and it won't help yours after I'm dead.

As for the issues with my play, and I want to keep this brief because it may be a bit off topic, it seems like certain things that used to be town tells no longer are. Like someone will drop one of those obvtown tells, and I'll see them as town for the majority of the game. Then they flip scum and I'm all WTF. In the past, these tells would lead me to enough strong town reads to nail the scum by process of elimination. Maybe it's time to stop townhunting and scumhunt more? I don't really know, but I'll figure it out at some point.

The vibe I get from your posts is just that you seem to be a good player. Sure, I don't really have results to prove it and I haven't looked at your stats or past games or whatever, but you seem to be playing well regardless of your alignment. Do you see what I am saying about majiffy's meta though?

By slump, I mean that my reads have been much worse than normal in my past few games. I was wrong on both Fe and Last in this game. I just had a game end where two of my strongest town reads were scum and all of my scum reads were town. And the last few before that weren't much better. I like to think I've been good at this game in the past. I mean, I've nailed plenty of scum Day 1 and sometimes their partners if I survive long enough. I've generally picked right in 3P LYLO. Even in town losses, I'll be the guy going "dammit! I told you guys so and so was scum!". But lately, I just can't do it.

-------------

Bork, no way in hell that is a scum slip. People compare town play to scum play all the time. And this type of comparison ("you remind me of how I play as town/scum") is especially common for players who have played 5-10 games. It's not a slip or a tell.

[borkjerfkin]

Bork, no way in hell that is a scum slip. People compare town play to scum play all the time. And this type of comparison ("you remind me of how I play as town/scum") is especially common for players who have played 5-10 games. It's not a slip or a tell.

I don't agree that it's a scumslip.

[Majiffy]

The complete lack of reading comprehension in the above post is appalling.

p-edit: Ninja'd by bork.

[Kmd4390]

Bork, yeah, I was agreeing with you that if someone thinks that is a slip, they are dead wrong.