Micro 379: Forest Fire Arsonist (Game Over)

[notscience]

I don't know how to feel regarding Mala because the time she started townreading me came right around the time I got quicklynchedi n that other game and I feel like that looked more like town mala afraid to ml me agian, but on the other side I'm not sure because like majiffy seems adamant she's scum

I don't think scum-bins would try to play the guilt card on me because at this point in time it's stupidly easy to mislynch me, why give me any chance at all to be town.

I don't get IP's VCA because he's doing all this stuff that equates to "I don't see how these people can be sum together' and its weird and hes hedging on absolutely everyone in the game, even looks like he's setting up a readsflip on bins

I don't remember anything pants has done all game sans tunnel the lowhanging fruit.

tldr I think its IP and Pants with a slim chance of Mala maybe if I'm wrong

pedit-

That requires me to have a scum role pm~

[Bins]

I don't get IP's VCA because he's doing all this stuff that equates to "I don't see how these people can be sum together' and its weird and hes hedging on absolutely everyone in the game, even looks like he's setting up a readsflip on bins

This maybe crazy, but he could have thought that I was going to die...

[Malakittens]

Stupid sever.

Will be here in the morning

[notscience]

I don't get IP's VCA because he's doing all this stuff that equates to "I don't see how these people can be sum together' and its weird and hes hedging on absolutely everyone in the game, even looks like he's setting up a readsflip on bins

This maybe crazy, but he could have thought that I was going to die...

And this makes things better because?...

[Bins]

It does not.

[Bins]

I know what I'm going to analyze tomorrow.

[InflatablePie]

I don't get IP's VCA because he's doing all this stuff that equates to "I don't see how these people can be sum together' and its weird and hes hedging on absolutely everyone in the game, even looks like he's setting up a readsflip on bins

readsflip = setting up to change my read?

I'm probably

not

going to change my read on Bins, the exception would be if I found something incredibly incriminating pointing to a Bins/X scumteam. I'm briefly entertaining the thought of doing a VCA assuming Bins is scum only to be thorough, because there's no reason not to be in this scenario.

Scumhunting for buddies is a personal playstyle thing that I try to break myself of doing (well, early on at least), but regardless I feel like it's a valid strategy at this stage. If I randomly vote now, I have a 50/50 shot at lynching scum. If I have one solid townread and I'm right: 66% chance. Might as well look in those three, find the pairing that makes sense, then determine which of the two is more likely scum individually, in case I'm wrong. That's how I like to approach LYLO situations.

As for me being scum with Pants, I guess I could see the early D1 stuff being early distancing. Do you have any opinion on us voting next to each other on the BBT wagon D1?

@bins: you're saying I thought you were going to die, thus today I'm trying to set up a lynch on you? I'm confused, and that seems like a weird conclusion to jump to and I'm probably wrong, so elaborate.

[InflatablePie]

If anything, I did a readsflip on Pants, but then again my townread on Bins is stronger and I was fully expecting a scumlynch and then a townloss, so the fact that I'm in lylo is kind of messing with me in general.

[InflatablePie]

Can Pants/NS be the scumteam or am I out of my mind thinking that bussing is, well, bussing?

do you honestly think Pants has been parking his vote on every ns wagon since Day 1

It'd be ballsy as scum to put your buddy at L-1 on earlyish D1, if someone trollhammers it might confirm you for a few days, but the hammer-er is confirmed town and eventually people won't find the putting-to-L1 thing 100%-confirmed-town any more.

so if Pants is scum with ns, he was willing to risk that/knew no one would hammer ns.

[Bins]

No, that's not what I'm saying, yeah sorry I made it a kind of confusing post. Will clear up when not in bed mobile posting

I find NS really, really off. Like majorly off because he choose to comment on his not scum role on vs y'know the pants/him scum team being ridiculous.

[notscience]

Does the former not imply the latteR?

[InflatablePie]

hmm.

assuming Pants is scum with Mala, putting ns at L-1 means he knew if town hammered town there'd be an easy mislynch there. Mala hammers BBT with her buddy also on the wagon. D2 Pants refrains from joining the Majiffy wagon with Mala on it... D3 doesn't want to get caught with her buddy in case they don't win?

But why would Mala vote Bulge yesterday if she was scum, since Bulge was primed... actually not sure why she was voting Bulge when she called Bins+ns the scumteam

hmmmmm

even assuming Mala is scum I don't know why you would vote Bulge there if you knew he was primed? maybe if you knew Marquis was gonna get lynched regardless and wanted to make sure you weren't on the wagon, but... it still sits weirdly with me, y'know?

(btw, yes I know assuming someone is scum before going into reasoning is fallacious logic, I'm using it as theory/thinking aloud type stuff)

[InflatablePie]

and we're back to ns & mala not hammering, which combined with the whole buddy-buddy thing for most of the game, makes me think they're very unlikely scum together.

so if Bins is town, it literally has to be Mala/Pants. I don't see ns being scum with Pants for sure, and slightly less but mostly sure it's not Mala/ns.

hmm.

[Marquis]

(btw, yes I know assuming someone is scum before going into reasoning is fallacious logic, I'm using it as theory/thinking aloud type stuff)

[Dr Pants]

even assuming Mala is scum I don't know why you would vote Bulge there if you knew he was primed? maybe if you knew Marquis was gonna get lynched regardless and wanted to make sure you weren't on the wagon, but... it still sits weirdly with me, y'know?

I've actually been thinking about this as well. NS, and Mala both heavily avoided the Marquis wagon, even though it had the push behind to suggest that it was likely to go through. The vote on Bulge is interesting then because it seems out of place. There was no way Bulge was going to end up being the wagon over Marquis, so why bother voting for him? Additionally, I could see the inactivity at the end of yesterday being in part due to scum lurking and hoping town pushed the lynch through.

[Dr Pants]

I think in my mind right now, Mala and NS are the best lynches. I'm hesitant to try to piece together an argument for groupings because my townreads are not too solid any more, and I feel like the second I remove someone from my lynch pool I'm going to fuck it up and they'll be scum.

[Marquis]

HURT: mala

[Dr Pants]

I don't know how to feel regarding Mala because the time she started townreading me came right around the time I got quicklynchedi n that other game and I feel like that looked more like town mala afraid to ml me agian, but on the other side I'm not sure because like majiffy seems adamant she's scum

I don't think scum-bins would try to play the guilt card on me because at this point in time it's stupidly easy to mislynch me, why give me any chance at all to be town.

I don't get IP's VCA because he's doing all this stuff that equates to "I don't see how these people can be sum together' and its weird and hes hedging on absolutely everyone in the game, even looks like he's setting up a readsflip on bins

I don't remember anything pants has done all game sans tunnel the lowhanging fruit.

tldr I think its IP and Pants with a slim chance of Mala maybe if I'm wrong

pedit-

That requires me to have a scum role pm~

This might be the first post NS has that I actually kind of like. Except how have I gone for the low hanging fruit?

[InflatablePie]

marquis. dude. sorry about your lynch and everything, I was wrong woop woop, and yeah maybe I assumed you were scum yesterday too. but if you're going to 'vote' me and post eyerolls, you could at least go into detail to why you think I'm scum

like, you're confirmed town, your comments hold a little more weight and we're in a lylo situation

seriously you and majiffy need to talk more, especially with a stump down from d1.

---

Pants, you made an interesting point in 882 - about if ns is scum, their buddy bussing to control the pressure. Do you have any further thoughts with the information we have now?

Also saw Mala's 940 in your ISO, and I'm not sure how to read this sudden attack on Bulge/Bins&Bulge if I assume Mala is scum, because again, she would know Bulge was primed...

you know, the really fun thing is reading through Pants' ISO and thinking there's some town stuff in there, and reading Mala's posts from 940 and past, and also thinking there's town stuff in there (if a bit AtE)...

so this is fun

[Dr Pants]

Well everyone except you has voted for NS, so unless the scum team is you/NS, for NS to be scum, he has to have been bussed. My theory about scum bussing to control pressure was based off the fact that every time the NS wagon seemed to gain traction, a counter wagon would appear and everyone would go back to forgetting about NS. Plus at the time I had this theory, I was thinking NS/Marquis, and since Marquis had been one of the people to actually disband an NS wagon, that theory made sense.

The interesting thing about day 2 was that Mala was the one under pressure after the BBT lynch, and then proceeded to read flip on NS. Then when Majiffy came in and did Majiffy things, the focus all went magically onto Majiffy. Day 3 Mala doesn't even continue her press on NS. This is part of why NS/Mala is my best guess right now.

[Marquis]

i don't explicitly think you're scum

i just find it funny how yesterday almost all of your scumhunting was associative and contingent on my scumflip

not to say it's a bad thing to keep doing as your are in this kind of lylo

but right now as much as i want to say "just lynch mala" i'll just sit back here and *popcornchips*

[notscience]

The fuck is a popcornchip

[Dr Pants]

The thing about the Mala attack on Bins/Bulge is that even though Bulge was primed, Marquis was also town. I'm not giving any town points to mala for being on the Bulge wagon then, since it was unlikely to go through anyways.

[Dr Pants]

^above in response to pie

[Micc]

Bump?