Mafiascum.net

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 5:08 am**

@CFJ

I believe you are persuasive and playing against town in this game and you have no chance of persuading me otherwise. If you successfully BW another player who flips scum or are innoed by a PR then I will consider changing my mind. Because of this, if you're town, you may as well just scum hunt instead of trying to change my mind.

I will try to elaborate why I interpret 1002 the way I do based on your questions here:

In post 1120, callforjudgement wrote:
In post 1112, Frogsterking wrote:There are other reasons why I consider CFJ to be scummy, in short: he tried to pull the BW off of a confirmed scum player, he seemed frustrated after the scum player got lynched, and he posted an inauthentic looking town read on me in 1002.
I was frustrated with the scumflip D1. Obviously it's very helpful in terms of our win condition, but on the flipside of that, it doesn't make any sense (and nor does the nightkill). OK, so one scum was apparently unaware that this game was happening, which increases the chance that scum simply couldn't control the D1 voting (alternatively, one scum was intentionally avoiding the game, but that makes less sense rather than more). But even so, how often does it happen that scum end up getting voted out D1, when there's a viable counterwagon and many/most of the players on the wagon don't even think they're scum?

To me, scumhunting/townhunting is all about trying to figure out what everyone else is thinking. In a situation like this, I have no idea at all what scum were thinking, and that makes it very hard to work out what I should be looking for.

@
Frogster
: in terms of the "inauthentic townread", I've explained where my townread came from. Is there part of my reasoning that you specifically think can't/doesn't come from town? If so, which? I'm concerned that you think the read is inauthentic because you think I'm scum, rather than vice versa.

If I walked into a store and you tried to sell me your townread and 1002 was the pitch, I would say no and walk away. It's a behavioral read. It's like not knowing why one actor is bad versus another actor is good. Some people have more of an ear for that type of thing, others need to study it for a while and then they can tell.

I don't know if town!CFJ would townread me or not, maybe town!CFJ would townread me for similar reasons, I simply don't believe town!CFJ wrote 1002. I could be wrong, and I'm very confident that I could be wrong, enough so to give it a number (albeit non-scientific and for fun): 30% 1002 could be written by town!CFJ in the timespan and context it was posted.

It reminded me of this moment from D1:

In post 417, BananaCucho wrote:Am I the only one that thinks that is townreading Nos? I don't understand the scumreads on him and the votes on him feel opportunistic at best

In post 422, BananaCucho wrote:
In post 420, ItalianoVD wrote:
In post 417, BananaCucho wrote:Am I the only one that thinks that is townreading Nos? I don't understand the scumreads on him and the votes on him feel opportunistic at best
Could you explain why? I’m open to see things differently.
Tone feels town, I have also done the exact same thing as town multiple times myself in the past.

Mainly, I don't see the play here from a scum POV. Especially with the self vote. I understand the "AtE" argument but it feels like suboptimal play, he could just attempt to brush off the criticism as scum instead of going ham like this and self voting

I read posts like these and it shoots whoever to the top of my scum list. I believe posts like these are a sign that banana is not a very skilled liar, which is a part of his charm, and his charm was the reason he was being town read.

I feel the same way about 1002, I feel it's a sign you're not a skilled liar, and instead of relying on charm to not get lynched (like banana) you're relying on being persuasive. The difference between you and banana here is that you were already at the top of my scum list, and you knew it, and the townread was on me, hence my pushing much more adamantly for you.

And I disagree about your feelings of D1 lynches, it has more to do with the players who roll scum than it does with the player making the reads. If the scum team makes mistakes and the other players call them out, they will get lynched. If the scum team doesn't make mistakes or doesn't get called out they will probably not get lynched. If the scum team doesn't make mistakes, doesn't get called out, and are very coordinated with each other, there is an even less likely chance they will get lynched.

In this case it appears that at least one player made a mistake and got called out, and the scum team may not be very coordinated either, though we don't know that yet. I don't believe this is an unreasonable outcome of D1.

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:44 am**

In post 1122, callforjudgement wrote:This reminds me: everyone has posted since #898. I'm wondering if we can learn anything about Italiano's Friendly Neighbour target from the fact that they haven't confirmed him yet. (In particular, I see no town motivation in refusing to / failing to confirm Italiano, whereas scum would obviously benefit from the uncertainty about Italiano's slot if his Friendly Neighbour action was on scum N1 and fails/is roleblocked N2. So I think the target in question is more likely than random to be scum.)

In post 1123, callforjudgement wrote:Like, there's no theory reason to fail to confirm a claimed Friendly Neighbour as town. You aren't giving away anything about their role because they've claimed it, and you aren't giving away anything about your role other than that you aren't Ascetic. So it doesn't meaningfully help scum with their rolefishing at all.

How did you rule out the option of an Italiano fakeclaim

In post 1124, WaltertheDunce10 wrote:I said maybe CFJ not yes. Really cfj because earlier I said that you were on my vote list and scum pool so my vote should not come as a surprise to you.
I agree with 1123.

In your opinion, were any of the claims worthwhile?

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:51 am**

In post 1126, Looker wrote:
In post 1122, callforjudgement wrote:This reminds me: everyone has posted since #898. I'm wondering if we can learn anything about Italiano's Friendly Neighbour target from the fact that they haven't confirmed him yet. (In particular, I see no town motivation in refusing to / failing to confirm Italiano, whereas scum would obviously benefit from the uncertainty about Italiano's slot if his Friendly Neighbour action was on scum N1 and fails/is roleblocked N2. So I think the target in question is more likely than random to be scum.)
In post 1123, callforjudgement wrote:Like, there's no theory reason to fail to confirm a claimed Friendly Neighbour as town. You aren't giving away anything about their role because they've claimed it, and you aren't giving away anything about your role other than that you aren't Ascetic. So it doesn't meaningfully help scum with their rolefishing at all.
How did you rule out the option of an Italiano fakeclaim

I didn't. It's unlikely, though (given that it would be close to suicidal for a scum Italiano to make it), and if it is the case, this line of discussion is likely to reveal it.

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:04 am**

Something I randomly stumbled across while reading another game (not because I expected it to be connected with this game, simply something to do; I was reading through Scummies nominations):

In post 419, BananaCucho wrote:I actually have historically done very poorly as neutral/neutral evil roles tbh. As mafia I'll usually bus my partners for that sweet sweet town cred

It's still fun to stab tho lol. Here I am tho, no knives and no votes... for now at least heheh

Banana was town that game, so they were probably telling the truth (although they were a fairly important town power role, which might have made them play a little more scummily than normal). (Banana also mentioned in the postgame that they dislike long Day phases, which is probably why they replaced out of this game.)

That said, Banana made only three votes this game, and only the Italiano vote looks like it might be a bus vote. So this is probably irrelevant to this game, except in the unlikely situation of an Italiano fake-claiming (something which should be resolved toDay). I thought I'd post it anyway, though, in case it informs anyone else's reads.

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 8:59 am**

In post 1121, callforjudgement wrote:And just to elaborate on why this is frustrating: "looks like all my reads were wrong, I need to re-evaluate" is one thing that often happens to townies and can be annoying for them; but in this case, it's more like "looks like all my assumptions about how people play Mafia are wrong". We're in a game where some players are/were intentionally obtuse about their actions (Not_Mafia, RCEnigma), and some players have an excessively reactive playstyle which makes them hard to read (geraintm, Nosferatu, even Walter to some extent), and (perhaps because of this) few players seem to have a strong read on anyone.

Just look at the shelly wagon, for example:
Tayl0r Swift: Appears to have had a genuine (if mild) scumread on shelly, but didn't explain it D1 (the closest to an explanation is #690), and didn't really push it.

Frogsterking: Recently claimed to have had a D1 scumread on shelly; this surprised me, because it wasn't apparent in his D1 posting (it's stated in #619 and #734 but without explanation, and was explained but weak in #488).

Italiano: Deadline vote; apparent counterwagon vote to Walter, who Italiano was defending at every opportunity D1 (presumably due to getting a townread from the neighbourhood), rather than being due to a scumread on shelly.

Walter: Cross-voting the counterwagon. Doesn't appear to have had a scumread on shelly.

Nosferatu: Explicitly stated a townread on shelly, but disliked the composition of the Walter wagon.

RCEnigma: Had already expressed a willingness to hammer either the shelly or Walter wagons (apparently primarily as a deadline scramble, but RCEnigma rarely explains anything); chose shelly after the Nosferatu vote, with a "+1" implying sheeping/agreeing with the reasoning.

geraintm: Naked hammer vote. geraintm seemed to be interested in both the shelly and Walter wagons (going back and forth to some extent) but scumread shelly towards the end (#830).
Based purely on the apparent motivation behind the votes, what would you consider the possibility that shelly would flip scum? I'd put it as close to 0%; a wagon like this, with no apparent attempt by scum to stop it, would make me think that the target of the wagon was town purely based on the wagon composition and the way other people were reacting to the slot. The resulting scumflip, therefore, didn't make any sense.

So then you’re saying you feel it was scum driven in some aspect? Or am I reading it wrong?

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:08 am**

I'm saying that I have no idea what happened, and it bothers me; and that I'm somewhat surprised that other people don't seem as bothered as I am.

Most of the playerlist either had a townread or no read on shelly, or at minimum was unwilling to vote for her. Wagons on such players are normally very hard to build (of course, deadline helps, but there were other deadline options). Normally I wouldn't expect such a wagon to be able to go through without scum manipulating for that to happen; but I also don't see why scum would manipulate a wagon on one of their own if they weren't going to get credit for it (I don't think many people are being given or trying to take credit for the shelly wagon). So I'm utterly confused as to how this situation could have happened at all.

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:12 am**

So I’ve been going through the shelly/banana wagon voters and doing ISO’s on everyone’s interaction(s) with the slot. I’m currently on Nosferatu and will be done with geraintm afterwards. There are no opinions; there isn’t any feedback within these findings so no use reading or trying to read into anything said.

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:14 am**

In post 1130, callforjudgement wrote:I'm saying that I have no idea what happened, and it bothers me; and that I'm somewhat surprised that other people don't seem as bothered as I am.

Most of the playerlist either had a townread or no read on shelly, or at minimum was unwilling to vote for her. Wagons on such players are normally very hard to build (of course, deadline helps, but there were other deadline options). Normally I wouldn't expect such a wagon to be able to go through without scum manipulating for that to happen; but I also don't see why scum would manipulate a wagon on one of their own if they weren't going to get credit for it (I don't think many people are being given or trying to take credit for the shelly wagon). So I'm utterly confused as to how this situation could have happened at all.

Well I’m bothered by it. I mentioned it earlier in the day, because I agree; it doesn’t make sense for scum to not intervene and/or for town to vote for a townread/unknown slot.

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:16 am**

Another question is and I’m not well versed in this site’s meta, but is towncred the only thought process behind bussing? Like just because it doesn’t make sense does it mean we disregard it?

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:21 am**

I’m gonna go finish my ISO’s but before I do I wanna say this: there are two things on the table that is concerning for the town imo

1) My claim and
2) The shelly wagon

I think if we can figure out what’s going on with this shelly wagon then I will be okay revealing my night’s actions and answering any other questions, but to me my claim is insignificant at the moment and instead of harping on it we should try to figure out what’s going on.

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:23 am**

Actually, a theory: maybe a lot of the town has fairly accurate gut/subconscious townreads, so any wagon that gets traction is likely to hit scum by PoE (because a wagon that goes anywhere else will tend to stall out on votes). That might help to explain D1.

(Also a reminder: you should probably disclose your N1 Friendly Neighbour target; as far as I can see, there's no reason not to, because they've already chosen not to reveal themselves and it's hard to figure out what the implications of that are until we know who it is, and it would help to resolve any scepticism about your claim. PEDIT: I wrote this before seeing your most recent post, we can delay until later in the Day if you want to, but it probably needs to be sorted out toDay.)

PEDIT: on the subject of bussing, scum normally do it because they think it'll get them towncred; historically, on this site, they've had a tendency to do it more often than they theoretically should. Sometimes scum bus their partners because they think it's what they would do as town and want to avoid giving themselves away in the process; that might be a situation in which it's not intended to directly get towncred, but rather avoid scumcred. (And sometimes scum are planning only to distance, but and accidentally go too far.)

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:27 am**

In post 1133, ItalianoVD wrote:Another question is and I’m not well versed in this site’s meta, but is towncred the only thought process behind bussing? Like just because it doesn’t make sense does it mean we disregard it?

I +1 this question because I'm not very familiar with this site's meta, especially currently, and bussing seems like something that varies a lot between metas.

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:29 am**

In post 1134, ItalianoVD wrote:I’m gonna go finish my ISO’s but before I do I wanna say this: there are two things on the table that is concerning for the town imo

1) My claim and
2) The shelly wagon

I think if we can figure out what’s going on with this shelly wagon then I will be okay revealing my night’s actions and answering any other questions, but to me my claim is insignificant at the moment and instead of harping on it we should try to figure out what’s going on.

I agree with these two and I would also add RCE's fake claim to the list.

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:56 am**

I don't think RCE's fakeclaims are scummy (either of them, he fakeclaimed D1 too). It was terrible play in general, because it was unlikely to help meaningfully as town and could massively backfire. If RCEnigma were scum, it seems even less likely to help scum though (massively backfiring would still be possible and could lose the game for scum in that scenario, and if it works it doesn't gain anything). There's a potential exception to this, if RCEnigma is specifically a scum PT Cop and thus knew he almost certainly wouldn't be counterclaimed, but in that case why wouldn't he simply use his night action to determine PTs rather than fakeclaiming a guilty during the day?

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:04 pm**

I see bussing as like rocket fuel, you can’t burn all of it at once before you enter orbit (which would defined as either winning or reaching the point where you’re untouchable by play)
So like, budding everyone super early is straight up unwise but you shouldn’t be averse to it

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:12 pm**

In post 1071, geraintm wrote:Insert shawshankobtuse.jpg

you're the type to vote town in xylo

GeorgeBailey wrote:
Votecount 2.5

Looker(3)
~ Nosferatu(13), Gamma Emerald(24), callforjudgement(31)

callforjudgement(3)
~ Frogsterking(28), ItalianoVD(28), WaltertheDunce10(11)

RCEnigma(2)
~ Raya36(28), geraintm(13)

Raya36(2)
~ RCEnigma(20), Tayl0r Swift(41)

Frogsterking(1)
~ Looker(13)

kinda torn here

VOTE: raya

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:41 pm**

In post 1100, Tayl0r Swift wrote:who do you think is scum now raya? and why

Walter for the non-committal start and weak pushes such as this pushing the fake claim early game to be PR fishing.
RCE for the fakeclaim thing that drew out town PRs and had 0 benefit for town. He also seemed overdefensive on that topic.

I really need to read and get back into the game because I'm very detached right now

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:54 pm**

Also I 100% agree that whoever got the FN message should either claim or be revealed by Italiano today and preferably not too late in the day. There is absolutely no reason for town to hold this info back.

I also am concerned about the Shelly wagon, I just haven't had the time to think too much into it.

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:04 pm**

In post 1142, Raya36 wrote:There is absolutely no reason for town to hold this info back.

how do you figure

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:15 pm**

What good does it do to hold it back? Claiming to receive the message doesn't make you a target. It doesn't make Italiano any more of a target. It doesn't out any extra info to scum outside of confirming Italiano. Claiming does take away any suspicion on Italiano and helps town in that way.

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:24 pm**

Okay as promised I am complete with the shelly wagon ISO’s.

Spoiler:

After doing the ISO’s I realize I have to do the offwagon ISO’s as well to get the full picture. I will do those tomorrow, my eyes need a rest.

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:39 pm**

#1145 makes me seriously alarmed as to whether Italiano is actually fakeclaiming after all. It's just a summary of events, without much discussion or any conclusions – the sort of post that players often make to show that they're putting in effort, but not immediately useful for scumhunting other players or creating reactions (sometimes it helps people read you by showing what sort of eyes you're viewing the game with, but that doesn't help figure out other players' alignments). In short, it's the sort of post that players make when they're trying to prove themselves as town; if we're looking for scum on the shelly wagon, I'm not quite sure how that post helps with that (and I don't particularly want Italiano to waste his effort and eyesight producing something that isn't useful to the other players, unless this sort of summary is useful as a sort of "personal notes").

Proving yourself as town is normally a worthy goal to aim for for both town and (if you can successfully fake it) scum. But why would a Friendly Neighbour need to do that? (Likewise, Italiano's "didn't" not "don't" when talking about his read on Tayl0r; if Italiano is or becomes confirmed as town, his D1 reads are irrelevant as they only help read Italiano, the current reads (with more evidence) are what we need to read Tayl0r.)

(Just to make sure it's 100% clear: I did not receive a Friendly Neighbour report about Italiano last night, nor do I have any reason to think that such a report wouldn't arrive if it were sent to me.)

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:41 pm**

Actually, I just realised that it's best not to claim "I would/wouldn't receive the message", and it was a mistake for me to claim that in my previous post; if Italiano

is

fakeclaiming, we don't want to give him more information to guess which target he should fake the claim about. Claiming did/didn't receive should be useful, though.

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:42 pm**

(by "fake the claim about" I mean "fakeclaim to have targeted")

Posted: **Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:43 pm**

@callforjudgment: I point you too...

In post 1131, ItalianoVD wrote:So I’ve been going through the shelly/banana wagon voters and doing ISO’s on everyone’s interaction(s) with the slot. I’m currently on Nosferatu and will be done with geraintm afterwards.
There are no opinions; there isn’t any feedback within these findings so no use reading or trying to read into anything said.

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