Micro 1010: Divide and Conquer: Round 2 - Game Over!


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Post Post #1125 (ISO) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:57 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1124, GuiltyLion wrote:I wish I was scum frankly lol this would be a great performance if I was, as opposed to the terrible towngame this is turning into

the saving grace would be if my pet Vander scumread was right all along I guess but I'm not even confident in it anymore?

vander can you just kill me if you're scum
See you're doing it wrong

By calling out one person, it makes killing you give away too much info.

Look at my last post for tips
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Post Post #1126 (ISO) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:58 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

lol Luke if you get killed the F3 is gonna be a nightmare, please don't put that on us
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Post Post #1127 (ISO) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:59 am

Post by marcistar »

im sorry i feel like this is my fault :sob:
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Post Post #1128 (ISO) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:59 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

it's all of our fault, including scums
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Post Post #1129 (ISO) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 8:11 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1107, Vanderscamp wrote:
In post 1105, Lukewarm wrote:Vanders (please dont take this the wrong way but) if I had to describe your presence in the thread in one word, I would describe it as "forgettable."

For some reason, it just feels like your posts and pushes just are not particularly memorable. Like you keep saying that you were key to pushing out Bingle, but when I think back to Day 1, that is not something that stood out in my memory. I think of Hopkirk's 1v1 with Bingle, I think of Norwee and Not_Mafia's pushes on him, and I think of me organizing the "everyone vote for either hopkirk or Bingle." And then I look back at your iso, and I am like "huh, I guess Vanders did have a scum read on Bingle kinda early"

And now that I am like looking into it, it is very strange to me because when I look at the activity overview, of the living players, you are the second highest post count after me. But even though you are making a lot of posts, you are not making the kind of posts that draw attention I guess?

And I am not sure if that is just how you play the game normally, regardless of alignment, or if it is because you are being overly cautious with your posts because you are scum.

I am pretty sure that before I could stake the game on your alignment, I would to do a deep meta dive on you to figure that out, so I really hope that we don't both end up at Elo :(

Spoiler:
I think at this point, I really am just hoping that if we get it wrong today, that I am the night kill
Yeah I get this a decent amount, I think there's always an element of thinking that what I'm thinking about the game is coming across in the thread as obviously as it is in my mind when it really isn't.
I think it was the second most recent game I played where I thought this guy Robert was super obviously scum and I crushed him D1, when I was looking back on what I had actually said in a final three I had done a good job of trying to make sure we were killing him but nothing close to what I actually thought I had said.

To use you as a corollary for this, and I say this with no offence intended, but I could not have given less of a shit about you telling us to vote for either hopkirk or bingle, and I'm not sure it actually impacted anyone else's decision either. I do think it's towny that you were saying it, but ultimately not very impactful. But I'm sure because you were doing it and it's easier to look at your own perspective vs everyone else's it feels like it would have been something that was pretty relevant.
Wanted to respond to this before the thread locked. I did not mean that what I did was responsible for the Bingle elim. I was saying that my stance on the elimination was memorable :lol:
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Post Post #1130 (ISO) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:44 am

Post by Hopkirk »

GL is probably my top pick assuming town!Marci + deadhop
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Post Post #1131 (ISO) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:50 am

Post by Hopkirk »

i don't like the posturing around the Marci kill and it feels weird when i can see a 'setting up endgame' play going
associatives with Bingle are worse than Vanders/Luke + wasn't pushing/voting Bingle and sounded like he could go along with him
more POE really
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Post Post #1132 (ISO) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:52 am

Post by Hopkirk »

weakest reason for it to not be him outside Marci
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Post Post #1133 (ISO) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 11:45 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

I kinda think marci is scum and just trolling us
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Post Post #1134 (ISO) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 11:45 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

I know this is self-meta WIFOM but I don't twilight post as scum, especially the way I did D1 and D2
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Post Post #1135 (ISO) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 3:35 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

VLA


So might miss the very start of Day 4 if I am alive, but will be back and active by Wednesday
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Post Post #1136 (ISO) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 5:25 pm

Post by SirCakez »

Votecount 3.3

marcistar (3) - Vanderscamp, Hopkirk, GuiltyLion
Vanderscamp (1) - Lukewarm

Not voting (1) - marcistar

(expired on 2021-06-16 10:32:00) remain until day end

With 5 players alive, it takes 3 to reach a majority.
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Post Post #1137 (ISO) » Sat Jun 05, 2021 5:26 pm

Post by SirCakez »

marcistar,
Vanilla Townie,
has been eliminated day 3!

Night 3 begins! It will end in (expired on 2021-06-07 23:27:00)

I will accept fast night if I get PMs from everyone.
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Post Post #1138 (ISO) » Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:54 am

Post by SirCakez »

Lukewarm,
Vanilla Townie,
has been killed night 3!

Day 4 begins!
Brian Skies - "
I just wanna say Cakez is an evil mod and this is an evil setup.
"

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Post Post #1139 (ISO) » Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:55 am

Post by SirCakez »

Votecount 4.0

Not voting (3) - Vanderscamp, Hopkirk, GuiltyLion

(expired on 2021-06-22 12:55:00) remain until day end

With 3 players alive, it takes 2 to reach a majority.
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I just wanna say Cakez is an evil mod and this is an evil setup.
"

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Post Post #1140 (ISO) » Tue Jun 08, 2021 7:06 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

Welp it's officially time to tryhard

Hopkirk - in twilight you suggested that you thought I was the most likely scum remaining if not marci. This is a difference from most of D2/D3 where you either mentioned being open to the idea of Vander being scum, or literally voting him (, , ).

What in my twilight posts changed your mind so significantly, or what in Vander's D3 play changed your mind?

I will freely admit that I've been scared of being eliminated in F3 today, and I could see how that would reflect in 'positioning' in my posting, but that's because I'm town and me being eliminated today would be a loss for myself and my team. I have also constantly been worried about being a game losing mis-elimination, reflected even in my post 119 between D2 and D3 in the hood. Quoted for context:
In the hood, Guiltylion wrote:I'm still confident we win if marci/vanders are the other two elims (I still think it's stupid that Vanderscamp claims he doesn't need to read here and that excuses him from offering any content over the night phase or participating in this subset of dialogue with the rest of us), but idk if y'all can trust me enough and frankly I am having a real hard time feeling good about a definitive call either way with those two.
I'm not seeing what made you suddenly think I was more likely scum than Vanders, and I'm worried that may have been an agenda post more than a genuine thought process on your end.
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Post Post #1141 (ISO) » Tue Jun 08, 2021 7:13 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

Wrt to Vanders, I wish I had something to start conversation with you today, but I'm not sure I do yet. In a vacuum I think I'm still leaning towards you being scum over Hopkirk, but I intend to do a lot of evaluating and playing today I'm not gonna rush to put a vote down. I think the biggest things I have to weigh on your alignment don't really have to do with your posts or thought processes specifically and are more gamestate related (does Bingle make an empty threat to hammer you, or does Bingle push a scum buddy Hopkirk all the way up to almost being eliminated)
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Post Post #1142 (ISO) » Tue Jun 08, 2021 7:15 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

finally, if either of y'all have anything that it would help you to ask me about to better understand my thought process or see that I'm town, I'm obviously happy to discuss anything I've posted or said. And if you're scum and think you have a better chance of winning by pocketing me and pushing the other, please absolutely do that as it will at least make my life easier in solely having to choose between you two instead of having to both do that and negotiate away from eliminating me at the same time
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Post Post #1143 (ISO) » Tue Jun 08, 2021 7:24 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 1131, Hopkirk wrote:associatives with Bingle are worse than Vanders/Luke + wasn't pushing/voting Bingle and sounded like he could go along with him
on this, I don't know if this is a convincing argument but I want to say that I absolutely
was
considering going along with Bingle, I thought he was most likely scum in the 3p but I didn't have any strong scumtells on him specifically, and I thought eliminating in the 6p was better than eliminating in the 3p for all the reasons we had discussed. I also didn't trust what Lukewarm was doing trying to force the issue instead of being open to eliminations elsewhere, which made me feel that a Bingle elim was scum-serving in some way.

If I were scum with Bingle, I would have tried harder to disassociate our slots. Like I've said throughout this game, I think this set-up incentivizes the 6p scum bussing/distancing from the 3p scum as much as possible, because it's almost an inevitability that the 3p scum gets flipped. Instead, what you saw from me was tentative and uncertain play that could really have been scum with anyone in the 3p, because I am town and not aligned with anybody and trying to parse the noise to get information rather than playing with an agenda to make myself look good on a scumflip.
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Post Post #1144 (ISO) » Tue Jun 08, 2021 7:27 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

In post 648, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 616, Lukewarm wrote:Currently GuiltyLion, Marci, and Hopkirk are all off of the Hopkirk and the Bingle wagons.

So to each of you, do you think Hopkirk and Bingle are TvT?

Do you think someone else would be a better Day 1 elim?

What makes you think they are scummier then hopkirk/Bingle?

If you are wrong, and it is a minelim, do you think it would give us more information then a flip on Hop or Bingle, and if so why?
This feels like a weird post - I just stated in my last post that I'm not really feeling TvT from Hopkirk/Bingle, but I haven't yet had time to feel comfortable throwing a vote down especially since there's been so much action between the two of them. It's also odd to me that you're asking Hopkirk these questions??
In post 656, GuiltyLion wrote:I explained what's weird about it, you're assuming I'm "not on board" when I had already suggested I *would* be on board. And it makes no sense to ask Hopkirk why he thinks another scumread "is scummier than Hopkirk/Bingle" or whether his own flip would be informative. Just feels like thoughtless busywork questioning all around, especially since you claim to TR marcistar and myself as well
In post 658, GuiltyLion wrote:
In post 654, Lukewarm wrote:I wanted him to state for the thread why he was not voting for Bingle, because that is for us to analyze once Bingle flips.
Like this in general is pretty manipulative framing, there are reasons to not vote someone if you don't want the day to end or want to see where other players are thinking their vote might go. How am I to look at this and see it as anything but an attempt to further poison Hopkirk's standing on a town!Bingle flip?
In post 660, GuiltyLion wrote:especially since in the hood you gave pretty good reasons as to why you didn't personally think Bingle was likely to be scum, but then here you're championing eliminating him ASAP by telling everyone to vote between the two of them?? Do you see how that raises yellow flags for me?
In post 665, GuiltyLion wrote:bruh I've played mafia for 5+ years you don't need to say things like "Picking at peoples motivations is a key way to get a feel for whether or not their actions and motivations line up or if you think their actions are genuine.". My point is that your questions specifically were generic and bad and demonstrated no attempt to infer my thinking from what I had literally just posted.
In post 669, GuiltyLion wrote:and if Bingle/Hop is in fact TvT then all of your posts and actions are setting us straight on a path to two straight miseliminations. If you really thought Bingle was town you should not have been goading marcistar/Bingle to eliminate there today
In post 676, GuiltyLion wrote:yeah I def think Luke is town on a scum!Bingle (or a scum!Hopkirk) flip, I'm just worried about the TvT world in which case all of these posts are awful

p-edit: Bingle how can you not see what Lukewarm is doing here as bad. I really hate the overconfidence in D1 scumreads as if you're wrong on Hopkirk you've made life so easy for scum

These posts should make it clear that I was skeptical of Luke at the time and was uncertain about voting Bingle as a result. I'd also point out that these were made in rapid fire succession in a back and forth with Luke, which is hard for me to fake convincingly as scum as I tend to be way more paranoid/careful about throwing out hot takes or posts when my thought process is crafted and fake.
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Post Post #1145 (ISO) » Tue Jun 08, 2021 7:43 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

Thinking a bit more right now, I do think I have mostly good reasons to vote Vanders and not as good reasons to vote Hopkirk. I still think Bingle's play with Hopkirk is really unlikely to be theater and props to both of them if it was. I still think a lot of the small bits and pings in Vander's ISO that I've called out or focused on throughout the game together hint at a scum mindset. And I do think it's likely that Bingle's threats to hammer Vander and then self-vote instead were actions to protect Vander as they ensured that he wasn't eliminated on D1.

I don't have a lot of especially great reasons to townread Vander other than he vaguely sounds pretty town when he's playing (outside of the aforementioned pings/yellow flags), and that he did vote and get Bingle eliminated on D1. For most of D2 and D3 I also felt that his repeated claims that his bussing/voting Bingle should be town-clearing were more likely genuine than not. However, these reasons don't feel quite as strong to me when I weigh them against the fact that Vanders is clearly a very experienced mafia player (as I pointed out earlier he's claimed to play over 500+ games of mafia!) - which means none of these town tells are outside the range of a capable scum player who went into this game with a plan to distance from/bus their buddy, in a setup that incentivizes it, and milk as much towncred as possible from doing so.

It's also just hard for me to walk away from pride/vanity that I've had this read since D1 and haven't gotten to see Vanders flipped, frankly

The main reason I want to think/talk things through and get a sense of both of your mindsets right now is out of respect to Lukewarm's Hopkirk read and out of general care for F3 and needing to be open to re-evaluating. But gun to my head I vote Vanders here, so maybe Vanders if you're town we start with why Bingle/Hopkirk is S-S theater and not scum pushing town.
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Post Post #1146 (ISO) » Tue Jun 08, 2021 7:56 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

I can also relitigate a lot of my D2 case against Vanders, I think it holds up especially with Dunn/Marci confirmed town now. To restate the main points:

- Mid D1, Vanders voted Marci for being 'awkward', then spent most of his next few posts giving reasons to scumread/suspect Bingle. I thought the reasoning for his Marci vote was a lot weaker than the reasoning he had to scumread Bingle, so the fact that he was voting Marci and not Bingle stood out as odd. Especially since he also claimed a strong TR on Norway at the same time, which would make Bingle/N_M a 50/50 proposition at that point. And he cannot explain this with a defense of 'better to eliminate in 6p rather than 3p' because he specifically said he would rather vote his strongest read than vote based on the pool. I think a lot of the D2 discussion focussed too much on this last point rather than the fact that his Marci vote was not justified to the degree that his Bingle read was, in part because Vanders steered the discussion more on the pool argument instead of acknowledging that the Marci vote had weaker reasons than his Bingle read (without vote)

- Vanders at one point claimed to forget that Luke/Marci were both in the 6p. I think that's more likely to be scum pretending to have a thought process rather than a real one - no one else in this game ever 'forgot' who was in which pool.

- Vanders claimed that he didn't read the neighborhood chat when I pointed out he didn't respond to me in there. He then shifted the discussion to "there's no value to posting in there", which again steered the conversation away from the
actual
point which is that even if you don't believe in
posting
in the hood as town, you should still be
reading
it. I call this out in more detail in .

- Vanders vote and push back on me throughout D2 seemed more focussed on discrediting my perspective and the argument rather than genuinely thinking I was scum. He gave no reasons for why I was scum outside of ones centered around me not 'believing' my case because my case was bad - but someone as experienced as Vanders should know that townies genuinely push faulty tunnels all the time.
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Post Post #1147 (ISO) » Tue Jun 08, 2021 8:26 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

now that I've posted all that, cue the nerves about a hypothetical scum!Hopkirk entering thread and turbovoting me and making me look like a complete idiot as I have to reckon with being wrong about Vander and immediately backtracking everything I posted lol
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Post Post #1148 (ISO) » Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:13 pm

Post by Hopkirk »

I'm going to reread on Friday/Saturday at some point
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Post Post #1149 (ISO) » Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:39 am

Post by Vanderscamp »

I think GL is probably the scum, I'm going to reread when I have time, until then I'm going to try to stay current.
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