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Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 5:07 am
by GrandpaMo
In post 1122, Val89 wrote:I think if we going into the night with only one scum alive, yes, it's a town win.
We are 5v2 right now. We are in column B, so Mafia aren't doing any roleblocking. Cook is conftown. We either have a tracker or a jailkeep.
Let's say we elim Grandpa today and they flip scum, which I find highly probable; then I suspect the other scum is in T3 or Norwee, leaning towards T3. Either PR targets whomever they find scummiest. The remaining scum has to decide whether to try for the kill and risk being outted by the PR if they don't hit them, and, unless the rolecop hit the other PR last night, they only have a 25% of hitting the other PR if we don't force them to out today. The other scum else has to decide to do nothing in order to put suspicion onto the person who does get JK'd/tracked; hope the town PR targets the wrong person, and go into D3 5v1; with a conftown alive - something I can't see a single scum doing.
If we elim either T3 or Norwee today, and we guess wrong, then the other town PR has to guess which of the scum is doing the killing, and things get dicey. Limming Grandpa is the play today, unless there is still anyone who thinks they are flipping town and 2 scum are going to go through to night 2; and I don't think there is anyone left seriously reading Grandpa as town now (apart from T3, who is sus themselves), right?
If we do give scum!Grandpa the boot today, then even if we hit the wrong one tomorrow, I think we've time to take out the other on D4 even in the unlikley event the remaining scum does manage to get both kills off and not get outted by the remaing PR on D3. (2 town v 1 scum is a town win, if the scum is known, right?).
ok ima ask u this question which u will probably ignore like all the time u have...
if i flip town, which i will, who would you suspect?
you just have confbias at that point from yesterday. you aren't even looking at this from your original narrative that you first pushed that scum could be taking advantage of this and you are just falling into their trap.
you even pointed that they killled zyla for the reason to probably get a lim on cook.
which then cook claimed FN and targeted you....
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 5:11 am
by NorwegianboyEE
I don't think this game will advance any other way than eliminating Grandpa here.
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 5:13 am
by NorwegianboyEE
James do you think Grandpa/T3 is the team?
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 5:14 am
by NorwegianboyEE
Or did you scumread them individually?
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 5:20 am
by GrandpaMo
yea just kill me.
town advantages ig.
should i vote for myself here? i dont wanna waste any time
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 5:20 am
by GrandpaMo
u could be scum for this tho lol
ima just stick my vote to u for now
VOTE: norweignee
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 5:21 am
by GrandpaMo
sorry for the spam post but i am willing to vote anyone town is willing to vote for including myself
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 5:21 am
by T3
Don't selfvote.
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 5:47 am
by JamesTheNames
I'm too conflicted.
I think Scum!GrandpaMo implies Scum!T3, but Scum!T3 doesn't necessarily mean Scum!GrandpaMo.
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 6:06 am
by Cook
hypothetical: T3 is rolecop
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 6:07 am
by Cook
why would he suddenly come out with a hard townread on me when the only thing I did that was remotely town indicative was crumb FN at the start of the game.
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 6:10 am
by NorwegianboyEE
In post 1135, Cook wrote:why would he suddenly come out with a hard townread on me when the only thing I did that was remotely town indicative was crumb FN at the start of the game.
That's what i've been saying is sus.
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 6:12 am
by NorwegianboyEE
In post 1130, GrandpaMo wrote:
u could be scum for this tho lol
ima just stick my vote to u for now
VOTE: norweignee
You realize i could hammer you right now? Why do you keep making me want to do it?
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 6:13 am
by NorwegianboyEE
Then again, would scum!you be this desperate in trying to create a new wagon on town in this position?
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 6:27 am
by GrandpaMo
i mean yea I REALLY dont want to but its like town is already gonna be voting me lol so whats the point anymore? but i keep saying it , probably wont do it ultimally
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 6:27 am
by GrandpaMo
In post 1137, NorwegianboyEE wrote: In post 1130, GrandpaMo wrote:
u could be scum for this tho lol
ima just stick my vote to u for now
VOTE: norweignee
You realize i could hammer you right now? Why do you keep making me want to do it?
oh im on hammer. pog
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 6:38 am
by JamesTheNames
GrandpaMo, assuming you're the scum consensus, and assuming we're all incorrect about you, would you not want to allow discussions which could eventually lead to someone being scum read more than you? You self hammering is inherently anti Town as far as I'm concerned. I don't think you're town but I am not rushing to hammer you, there's no need to waste all the time we have.
The way I see it is I would prefer a T3 hammer today without a shadow of a doubt, assuming Cook gets killed N2 because we don't have a jailkeeper or they make a mistake, we would go into Day 3 with all active, not lurking, input heavy people. The information we get from active people is important. Don't hammer yourself yet, if you're town, at least wait a while for the countdown to get close.
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 6:45 am
by alstroemerial
In retrospect, I now see the crumbs and feel like a fool.
In post 1124, GrandpaMo wrote: its very highly probable because scum is univerally controlling the game and how we are thinking, they are also possibly UST such as maybe alstro?
what's UST?
Anyway, the way I see it, with the pool as NEE, Grandpa, James, T3, and Val... I have been TR-ing Val pretty much from the get-go and have come around on James. I'm also reasonably confident that Grandpa flips red so it's down to NEE or T3 in my eyes. But considering NEE brought Grandpa to H-1 yesterday and kept the vote on for a few hundred posts, I think it's less likely. T3 had a vote on Grandpa for awhile too but not at as crucial of a point. I also agree that there was no
need
per se to get the FN claim out of Cook this early (though it ended up being helpful, and with the momentum of the day it's possible Cook would've gotten to H-1). T3 has also been TR-ing Grandpa fairly consistently. Either way, if we are right about Grandpa then that gives us a miselim to figure it out, right?
I want to check some T3 past games just to check meta but that's where my head is at.
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 6:58 am
by GrandpaMo
In post 1142, alstroemerial wrote:In retrospect, I now see the crumbs and feel like a fool.
In post 1124, GrandpaMo wrote: its very highly probable because scum is univerally controlling the game and how we are thinking, they are also possibly UST such as maybe alstro?
what's UST?
Anyway, the way I see it, with the pool as NEE, Grandpa, James, T3, and Val... I have been TR-ing Val pretty much from the get-go and have come around on James. I'm also reasonably confident that Grandpa flips red so it's down to NEE or T3 in my eyes. But considering NEE brought Grandpa to H-1 yesterday and kept the vote on for a few hundred posts, I think it's less likely. T3 had a vote on Grandpa for awhile too but not at as crucial of a point. I also agree that there was no
need
per se to get the FN claim out of Cook this early (though it ended up being helpful, and with the momentum of the day it's possible Cook would've gotten to H-1). T3 has also been TR-ing Grandpa fairly consistently. Either way, if we are right about Grandpa then that gives us a miselim to figure it out, right?
I want to check some T3 past games just to check meta but that's where my head is at.
i will ask u the question that i asked val...
if i flip town, which i will -- who will u then sus?
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 7:00 am
by NorwegianboyEE
Apparently only Val and Alstro are people Grandpa wants to hear the opinion of.
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 7:03 am
by JamesTheNames
He is being scum read and voted by the both of them. Why he doesn't want Cook's opinion is up for speculation
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 7:06 am
by Val89
I'm listening, but I see a T3 lim as being much more worse play for town than a Grandpa lim today. My reasons are set out in post
1122. Do you find fault with that analysis?
A Grandpa flip clears you; I don't see what a T3 flips over-and-above putting the crosshairs back on Grandpa. The other consideration is that, given my analysis in 1122; I really don't see how, unless someone straight up scumslips, further discussion is going to lead to anyone getting scumread harder than Grandpa. In fact, I see further disccsuion is only likley to generate a further town claim today, perhaps by forcing a CC if scum tries claiming it, and I don't see how outting our other PR, if they don't have anything important to tell us today already, is beneficial to town.
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 7:09 am
by JamesTheNames
I just think it's a matter or policy to use up as much of the alloted time as possible. I also think I scum read T3 more than GrandpaMo.
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 7:11 am
by Val89
Grandpa is trying to use us to try convince us to give him another night and lim him tomorrow. He knows the only chance scum have here is both of them are alive at the start of the night.
If he's been reading my posts, he knows full well what I am going to say if I answer him directly, and you can probably guess at Alstro's answer too, and if it's not scum he going to start pushing whomever we say in the hope he can convince us to lim them first, or get them into hammer range and force a claim. It's transparent, and I'm not playing.
Posted: Sun Jun 27, 2021 7:16 am
by NorwegianboyEE
In post 1147, JamesTheNames wrote:I just think it's a matter or policy to use up as much of the alloted time as possible. I also think I scum read T3 more than GrandpaMo.
We can push T3 tomorrow. I don't think either of Val/Alstro/Cook are going to change their minds.