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Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:16 am
by Menalque
also looking for one team is easier than looking for both imo, and if FL
isn't
scum then we 100% need to lim maf tomorrow or as they have kills back tomorrow night is GG for town and it's wolves v maf where wolves prob win
I mean wolves prob win anyway atp but I think it's the best shot
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:19 am
by Klick
Claim: Town isn't the alignment that has the burden of killing Flavor Leaf. Wolves have to kill Flavor Leaf, Mafia has to kill tictac, and they both have to kill me.
We shouldn't waste the town's eliminations on slots that scum have to kill.
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:21 am
by Menalque
do you think tictac is wolf or town?
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:22 am
by Klick
In post 11300, Menalque wrote:also looking for one team is easier than looking for both imo, and if FL
isn't
scum then we 100% need to lim maf tomorrow or as they have kills back tomorrow night is GG for town and it's wolves v maf where wolves prob win
I mean wolves prob win anyway atp but I think it's the best shot
???
If we lim town->maf then wolves just win outright
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:23 am
by Klick
I'm not sure on tictac. I was leaning town before but I'm far from certain, and he's in PoE at this point.
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:27 am
by Klick
This still doesn't feel like it's been justified
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:29 am
by Sword of Ducks
It isn't justified. It's an OMGUS.
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:31 am
by Menalque
In post 11303, Klick wrote: In post 11300, Menalque wrote:also looking for one team is easier than looking for both imo, and if FL
isn't
scum then we 100% need to lim maf tomorrow or as they have kills back tomorrow night is GG for town and it's wolves v maf where wolves prob win
I mean wolves prob win anyway atp but I think it's the best shot
???
If we lim town->maf then wolves just win outright
oh fuck, yeah
forgot about numbers, sorry
just the amount of shit that FL has been chatting all game, the way he has consistently just shouted until getting his own way, the fact that he wasn't enchant's shot, the fact his reads have been in constant flux and he was defending (heavily) on D1 slots which now seem to be likely scum, the fact that math was convinced on FL scum and we now know math was 100% town and is a good player
like there is a wealth of reasons for FL scum and nobody will vote him?
it is tiring
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:32 am
by Menalque
BRO HOW IS IT AN OMGUS WHEN I'VE BEEN CALLING FL SCUM FOR LITERALLY DAYS AND HE'S BEEN CALLING ME TOWN UNTIL IT'S CONVENIENT TODAY LIKE JESUS FUCKING CHRIST
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:33 am
by Menalque
aaaaaand that means it's time for me to step away
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:47 am
by Klick
In post 11307, Menalque wrote:the fact that math was convinced on FL scum and we now know math was 100% town and is a good player
Math's explanations for things were blatantly false in several areas. I do not trust Math's judgement.
Let's talk a bit more about 4-3 vs 4-2-1. I think the latter is faaaar better a position for town.
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:48 am
by Klick
ESPECIALLY if FL actually is mafia. He'll just die to wolves.
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:50 am
by Klick
SUPER ESPECIALLY because neither of us trusts this town to coordinate.
Like you want this town to enter 'have to agree all together on the scumteam' territory
When we could just rely on the scum doing this for us, when they've shown to be pretty damn good at hitting each other
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:01 am
by Flavor Leaf
Yeah, but Menalque was actively letting Mathblade do the work for days, and hasn’t looked for any scum and has been just vote sitting for days.
Keep in mind, Menalque hopped onto Mathblade with Klick and I a few days ago even.
I have been stating a town read on Menalque, but I’ve also been stating town reads on ND, Nero, and Sword. I have also actively been stating that scum was in my purple, which Menalque is the last of the 3 purples, so their defense of me just happening to switch my reads isn’t true. It’s been there for days, and to this point even, I still read Menalque as town by tone.
However, objectively, they are not town, and the fact that I’ve been their only push should show that they are a wolf who thinks they are getting rid of Mafia.
By all means, I believe that the Wolves think I am Mafia, and are trying to save themselves from getting shot tomorrow night.
It fits with Menalque’s “we have to kill Mafia, risk killing a townie specifically to get to Mafia”
Menalque has not been looking for wolves, they have been weaving around with wolves.
Down to the defending of Catboi.
Back on Day 1, Menalque stated that “they knew that I would add votes to a wagon to get it to stop”
This is what I believe they did with Bnuuy on Day 1 to get votes off of Catboi.
They know how effective, especially early game, and Bnuuy is also confirmed Vanilla when Catboi was a PR.
Menalque got votes from Catboi to Bnuuy, knowing that they could flip votes off of Bnuuy afterwards and throw the blame onto me.
Both Bnuuy and Menalque defended Catboi specifically by chopping me down, and stating lines like they don’t trust me.
It was classic hatcheting, and then after Catboi flipped, everything they were trying to chop down proved to be true, and they both sat away for days.
Wolves were living in a depressed wolf state after losing their partner, and then Mathblade vs FL allowed them the opportunity to come back.
Here’s the thing, I’m being pushed as Mafia, correct?
They are not making any sort of defense against themselves for not being Wolves, they’re doubling down and pushing me as Mafia harder, which is entirely wolf indicative here.
They ignore the fact that as Mafia, I would have every need and necessity to go after Wolves here, but they don’t want to dive into that area because it ruins wolves.
I have been pushing Bnuuy/TicTac as scum since like Day 3/Day 4.
I even had Bnuuy on some of my Day 1 solves.
So saying I am clearly OMGUS is just factually untrue.
Where else am I supposed to push? Saying I am OMGUS, is saying I don’t believe in my reads and just pushing who are pushing me, which is factually untrue.
Even if I were mafia here, it wouldn’t be OMGUS, considering I would need to hit wolves.
Could I be wrong? Sure. I don’t believe I’m entirely wrong here ever.
If I were wrong on more than 2, and 2 of Freedom/Nashville/Swords were wolves, I would be dead, and Wolves would have an easy win path.
The people on my wagon are mostly ignoring who are wolves in favor of trying to eliminate me.
They’re pushing Mathblade’s moon theories that I am scum, while ignoring talking about how if I were Mafia, I’d have to have killed Mastina.
Which, fine, project that into existence as a possibility, sure, but they’re still pushing it as the most likely scenario.
Mathblade, I understand. They push me every single game relentlessly because they start with the conclusion that I am scum, and create a world where it’s true.
Mathblade Cleric saved me Night 3. Mastina blocked Night 1 wolf kill.
That’s the most obvious. There’s also the chance Mastina used her wolf protection shot Night 1, and roleblocked the kill Night 2.
There’s also the chance wolves still have a protective/blocker.
That’s classic setup spec.
And wolves are fighting completely to make sure none of this gets unraveled.
Nobody on my wagon currently is looking for wolves, they’re specifically only trying to eliminate me, regardless of whether I am town or Mafia under the guise that I am scum who killed Mafia, piggybacking Mathblade’s moon theory.
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:01 am
by Nashville Dreams
So your proposition is to no lim?
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:03 am
by Nashville Dreams
Flavor, ftr you think the team is Menalque, tictac and bnuuy and they're relying on my vote to eliminate you?
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:04 am
by Klick
? What is this in response to
I'd love some more focus on the conversation Menalque and I are having and less distractions from it
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:08 am
by Nashville Dreams
@Klick, you but I had my brain on sideways thinking your suggestion to crosskill was a suggestion to no elim.
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:09 am
by Klick
In post 11310, Klick wrote:Let's talk a bit more about 4-3 vs 4-2-1. I think the latter is faaaar better a position for town.
In post 11312, Klick wrote:SUPER ESPECIALLY because neither of us trusts this town to coordinate.
Like you want this town to enter 'have to agree all together on the scumteam' territory
When we could just rely on the scum doing this for us, when they've shown to be pretty damn good at hitting each other
Basically I'd like anyone who's town to have a really clear read of this and realise that we're probably not winning 4-3, while we very well could win 4-2-1.
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:10 am
by Flavor Leaf
This.
Wolves kill me tomorrow night no matter what.
The reason they need to eliminate me I believe is that they think I am going to shoot one of them, and this ends in a town victory.
Letting me live, leads itself towards a town victory, not a Mafia victory, especially if I were Mafia.
I am the wall that if broken down, wolves can sweep and control game with numbers.
Those 3 are listening to Math’s logic of Mafia needing to be taken out so well because it was a townie pushing their wincon in ways that they wanted to make sense. And they are all just echoing Mathblade’s logic without questioning Mathblade’s Mech.
Mathblade created a moon theory from the conclusion I was scum, not discovered I was scum, and you can see that in all of their logic.
Every single townie questioned Mathblade’s logic while seeing it as a possibility.
Menalque, TicTac, and Bnuuy are the only ones here who never questioned Math’s logic because it benefited wolves.
Even if Math was right, a natural townies response was to question Math’s Mech, even if it was to help them get the right Mech case.
Let’s power fade the wolf team.
Whoever is Mafia out there will help us get these fades, and it’s literally the only way to fade a wolf if they refuse to bus.
We HAVE to go for wolves.
It also creates a situation where if my reads are correct, a Wolf has to shoot Mafia tomorrow night, and Mafia has to shoot a wolf.
This heavily sets up a Wolf to incorrectly kill me, and it leaves a final 3 in Sword, ND, Freedom with Mafia (Klick is probably alive there too, but they aren’t mafia.)
If I am wrong on any wolf, it puts Mafia/Wolves in a situation where they have a high chance of screwing the selves over with night kill.
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:11 am
by Flavor Leaf
In post 11315, Nashville Dreams wrote:Flavor, ftr you think the team is Menalque, tictac and bnuuy and they're relying on my vote to eliminate you?
Why would they rely on your vote?
They can get any two people to vote me.
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:14 am
by Nashville Dreams
In post 11310, Klick wrote: In post 11307, Menalque wrote:the fact that math was convinced on FL scum and we now know math was 100% town and is a good player
Math's explanations for things were blatantly false in several areas. I do not trust Math's judgement.
Let's talk a bit more about 4-3 vs 4-2-1. I think the latter is faaaar better a position for town.
I agree but it requires coordination.
If we don't feel like there is coordination, then we do have an awkward choice of no limming twice. *does math*
Force the wolves to shoot Flavor and force the Mafia to shoot in Klick/tictac (although the Keeper kill was a bit of an abberation).
3:2:1 if Flavor town, mafia hit scum
3:3 if wolves hit mafia, mafia hits town
3:2:0 if sides crosskill
Nevermind, we have to lim.
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:15 am
by Nashville Dreams
Assuming you're town, the mobsters vote is built in. Add 3 wolves. 4 votes. They only need 1 more.
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:18 am
by Klick
Everyone will sheep me instead of no limming because I am a town voice.
Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2022 8:18 am
by Flavor Leaf
Sure, that’s if Mafia wants me dead, though.
But yes, that’s why their situation works. It also allows them to push whoever it is that drops the last few votes as scum. Wolves essentially win if they survive this day phase bar town playing perfectly from here on out.