Mini 832 - Antarctic Winter-Over Mafia - Game (Abandoned)


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Post Post #1150 (ISO) » Wed Jan 20, 2010 11:56 am

Post by Santos »

Mod-Edit Votecount 4.5-5

Imaginality - 2
(CSL, DocPotter)

Cobalt - 1
(Santos)


Not Voting - 4
(Cobalt, Imaginality, Yellowbunny, ThAdmiral)


With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Santos Prodded.





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Post Post #1151 (ISO) » Wed Jan 20, 2010 1:11 pm

Post by CSL »

DP, are you allowed to poison someone before they hit L-1?
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Post Post #1152 (ISO) » Wed Jan 20, 2010 2:04 pm

Post by DocPotter »

Of course CSL. It just that it seemd to be a good point for me to choose, that also let everyone know when I would do it. As far as I know, there's no restriction (other than an unknown limit) on when I send in the poison request.
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Post Post #1153 (ISO) » Wed Jan 20, 2010 2:55 pm

Post by CSL »

Oh.
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Post Post #1154 (ISO) » Thu Jan 21, 2010 9:53 am

Post by yellowbunny »

Okay, so I read over carefully...only vote posted since the last vote count is Santos' vote for Cobalt. So...

vote: Imaginality

This puts him at L-1.

Do not hammer until, at the very least, Doc posts stating he put in the poison request.
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Post Post #1155 (ISO) » Thu Jan 21, 2010 10:00 am

Post by DocPotter »

Ok, order sent.
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Post Post #1156 (ISO) » Thu Jan 21, 2010 10:06 am

Post by CSL »

Ok, anyone going to hammer?
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Post Post #1157 (ISO) » Fri Jan 22, 2010 10:00 am

Post by CSL »

Hello, anyone here?
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Post Post #1158 (ISO) » Fri Jan 22, 2010 12:18 pm

Post by DocPotter »

I'm starting to wonder that myself.
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Post Post #1159 (ISO) » Fri Jan 22, 2010 12:28 pm

Post by CSL »

Mod, please prod ThAd and Cobalt


Done.
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Post Post #1160 (ISO) » Fri Jan 22, 2010 1:42 pm

Post by Cobalt »

um, I posted 2 days ago :S
We're in no hurry to hammer. What's the rush?
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Post Post #1161 (ISO) » Fri Jan 22, 2010 4:36 pm

Post by CSL »

Might as well. Doc already sent in his poison.
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Post Post #1162 (ISO) » Fri Jan 22, 2010 4:40 pm

Post by DocPotter »

Unless there is something completely earthshatteringly brilliant and inciteful for someone to add, then we are just making time. Of course if there is, why the hell haven't they said it already?
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Post Post #1163 (ISO) » Fri Jan 22, 2010 4:45 pm

Post by CSL »

Exactly. There really is nothing to talk about anymore...
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Post Post #1164 (ISO) » Sat Jan 23, 2010 4:55 am

Post by yellowbunny »

Doc wrote: Unless there is something completely earthshatteringly brilliant and inciteful for someone to add, then we are just making time. Of course if there is, why the hell haven't they said it already?
QFT.
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Post Post #1165 (ISO) » Sat Jan 23, 2010 7:46 am

Post by imaginality »

I'm here, but I'm not going to hammer myself - despite proposing the plan. The plan made sure that if I went down we'd take a scum down with me, so that mislynching me wouldn't end the game, but now that the poisoning's done, it would be anti-town of me to hammer myself.

If enough of you believe I'm town, then feel free to unvote me and lynch Santos instead (on the basis that if you believe I'm town, then you must believe ThAd is scum, so you must also believe Santos is scum). If you don't have a strong sense of me being town, then lynch me.

Probability-wise:

If you lynch Santos and I'm town, we have a good chance of winning, say 80% (two dead scum).

If you lynch Santos and I'm scum, we lose.

If you lynch me and I'm town, we have to hope Doc has a second poison. Not sure but let's say we have a 50% chance of winning. (Probably slightly generous.)

If you lynch me and I'm scum, same thing.


So, on the one side, lynching me gives a ~50% chance of winning.
Lynching Santos gives a 80%*p(town) chance of winning.

80% * 63% = 50.4%

So, on that basis, if you're more than 63% sure I'm town, then you should be in favour of lynching Santos instead of me, now.

Of course you can adjust the numbers, this is just guesstimates, but it shows my point of view. For me, p(town) is 100% (I know I'm town), so I'm in favour of lynching Santos.
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Post Post #1166 (ISO) » Sat Jan 23, 2010 9:52 am

Post by DocPotter »

So when it was lynch thAd/poison you, you were fine.
Now that it's lynch you/poison thAd you're not fine it seems.

Why? SInce I believe the whole point was to determing which of imaginality/thAd is scum? Something that I personally cannot decide on.
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Post Post #1167 (ISO) » Sat Jan 23, 2010 10:40 am

Post by CSL »

Guys, deadline is in 8 days. Either we get a majority before the 1st of February, or we go to night without hanging anyone.
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Post Post #1168 (ISO) » Sat Jan 23, 2010 11:53 am

Post by imaginality »

Doc, if you can't decide on, then keep your vote on me, by all means. If three other people are equally unconvinced I'm town, then I'll be lynched and fair enough.

All I'm saying is that if you (any of you) do feel I'm fairly likely to be town, then it's not too late to change rather than lynch me purely for the sake of the plan (which I proposed at a time when few people were saying they thought I'm town, but recently I've seen more positive opinions of me).
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Post Post #1169 (ISO) » Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:15 pm

Post by CSL »

imaginality, I'm starting to lean the other way, actually.

Doc, I hope you didn't poison Cobalt, because I'm thinking of switching the vote to him...
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Post Post #1170 (ISO) » Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:38 pm

Post by DocPotter »

No mate. Cobolt's down as a possible for the night time poison shot depending on Imag's flip.
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Post Post #1171 (ISO) » Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:42 pm

Post by CSL »

Switch Cobalt with imaginality.

If either/or is town, the other is town.

If either/or is scum, the other is scum.

ThAd and Santos are confirmed with each other.

He (Cobalt)'s got one vote on him. If everyone switches their vote, Cobalt goes down.
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Post Post #1172 (ISO) » Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:51 pm

Post by DocPotter »

I'm not convinced by the "If Cobolt is scum, imag is scum == if Imag is scum, Cobolt is scum" arguement so would rather go with the proposer.

And Imag is the only one we are sure of that is directly opposite (If that is the right word) of thAd as it appears that thAd took out Imag's tracking/watching ability by affecting a/his computer which follows what we know thAd claims to do to hckers.

Basically, I think we need both thAd and Imag flips and that one of those two has to be scum. I can't say anywhere near the same about cobolt.
Given that the poison order is sent and can't be changed and given that we wont see thAd's until D5 ...
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Post Post #1173 (ISO) » Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:53 pm

Post by CSL »

Well, Santos, we're waiting on you, since Cobalt won't hammer, and imag won't selfhammer.
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Post Post #1174 (ISO) » Sun Jan 24, 2010 3:37 am

Post by ThAdmiral »

I'm here too and haven't voted. I'll wait to see if santos has anything else to say about cobalt who seems to have come up as somewhat of another option but I'm happy to hammer imaginality.
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