Of course CSL. It just that it seemd to be a good point for me to choose, that also let everyone know when I would do it. As far as I know, there's no restriction (other than an unknown limit) on when I send in the poison request.
Unless there is something completely earthshatteringly brilliant and inciteful for someone to add, then we are just making time. Of course if there is, why the hell haven't they said it already?
Doc wrote:
Unless there is something completely earthshatteringly brilliant and inciteful for someone to add, then we are just making time. Of course if there is, why the hell haven't they said it already?
QFT.
"Someone is playing with my mind, with my little gray cells. " - Hercule Poirot
I'm here, but I'm not going to hammer myself - despite proposing the plan. The plan made sure that if I went down we'd take a scum down with me, so that mislynching me wouldn't end the game, but now that the poisoning's done, it would be anti-town of me to hammer myself.
If enough of you believe I'm town, then feel free to unvote me and lynch Santos instead (on the basis that if you believe I'm town, then you must believe ThAd is scum, so you must also believe Santos is scum). If you don't have a strong sense of me being town, then lynch me.
Probability-wise:
If you lynch Santos and I'm town, we have a good chance of winning, say 80% (two dead scum).
If you lynch Santos and I'm scum, we lose.
If you lynch me and I'm town, we have to hope Doc has a second poison. Not sure but let's say we have a 50% chance of winning. (Probably slightly generous.)
If you lynch me and I'm scum, same thing.
So, on the one side, lynching me gives a ~50% chance of winning.
Lynching Santos gives a 80%*p(town) chance of winning.
80% * 63% = 50.4%
So, on that basis, if you're more than 63% sure I'm town, then you should be in favour of lynching Santos instead of me, now.
Of course you can adjust the numbers, this is just guesstimates, but it shows my point of view. For me, p(town) is 100% (I know I'm town), so I'm in favour of lynching Santos.
Doc, if you can't decide on, then keep your vote on me, by all means. If three other people are equally unconvinced I'm town, then I'll be lynched and fair enough.
All I'm saying is that if you (any of you) do feel I'm fairly likely to be town, then it's not too late to change rather than lynch me purely for the sake of the plan (which I proposed at a time when few people were saying they thought I'm town, but recently I've seen more positive opinions of me).
I'm not convinced by the "If Cobolt is scum, imag is scum == if Imag is scum, Cobolt is scum" arguement so would rather go with the proposer.
And Imag is the only one we are sure of that is directly opposite (If that is the right word) of thAd as it appears that thAd took out Imag's tracking/watching ability by affecting a/his computer which follows what we know thAd claims to do to hckers.
Basically, I think we need both thAd and Imag flips and that one of those two has to be scum. I can't say anywhere near the same about cobolt.
Given that the poison order is sent and can't be changed and given that we wont see thAd's until D5 ...
I'm here too and haven't voted. I'll wait to see if santos has anything else to say about cobalt who seems to have come up as somewhat of another option but I'm happy to hammer imaginality.