Sotty7 wrote:If you vote for Thor we can pretend this never happened and be BBF's
I'm right here in the room, I can hear you, y'know.
Nul's case is ridiculous. That said, Nul's case looks really townish because what replace-in scum is going to go through that much effort for one mislynch when he has like 2-3 decent sheep options to just grind into. Feel better about the slot now.
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 10:05 am
by Benmage
Everyone not voting needs to place a vote.
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 12:33 pm
by Furcolow
Zachrulez wrote:
2nd Vote Count of D1 P2
Percy - 6 (Benmage, RedCoyote, I Am Innocent, Locke Lamora, JasonT1981, KaleiÐoscøpe)
RedCoyote - 3 (Furcolow,
If I made any mistakes please politely point them out and I will correct them.
Deadline for Day 1 is Thursday November 12 at 12pm CST
With 15 alive it's 8 to lynch.
if elmo and sotty were scum here, they could place a vote on percy
that would put it at L-1, with me not even ON percy
I am MC Hammer, I would hammer the fuck out of almost anyone.
Because of them following me on RedCoyote and avoiding the actual main wagon at this point, I feel they're both likely town, and I took the case on sotty to be just based upon you not having BEEN THERE when all of this was happening. Sure, sotty seems scummy a bit because everyone is looking up and being like "hey, sotty, you are a good player". This would also be why scum would avoid sotty.
Elmo is less cleared being 3rd voter as that makes it more bandwagonny.... I still believe there would be no reason for him to make a case at this point as scum after replacing in like that. Town on town imo.
Zachrulez wrote:
4th Vote Count of D1 P2
RedCoyote - 6 (Furcolow, Elmo, Sotty7, Havingfitz, KaleiÐoscøpe, Thor665)
Percy - 4 (RedCoyote, I Am Innocent, Locke Lamora,
If I made any mistakes please politely point them out and I will correct them.
Deadline for Day 1 is Friday, November 12 at 12pm CST
With 15 alive it's 8 to lynch.
benmage voting no lynch when redcoyote was wagonned is pretty solid
baby spice voted him, after voting nikanor, at the same time too
i agree benmage is clear as of here
If I made any mistakes please politely point them out and I will correct them.
Deadline for Day 1 is Friday, November 12 at 12pm CST
With 15 alive it's 8 to lynch.
JasonT really likes to bandwagon
Also, Dry-Fit, in my opinion, was trying to fake suspicion on me when voting Jason, his scumbuddy, in this post:
Dry-fit wrote:
Mina wrote:
Dry fit wrote:Wouldn't it make more sense to lynch the first day and then see what we decide from there?
This was something I'd meant to ask you on in pregame before being side-tracked by another game. By "see what we decide from there," were you arguing that we should use both lynches, or just that we should lynch first before no-voting?
I wasn't advocating either strategy. I was saying IF we were going to only lynch once in a day, there would be no possible advantage in no lynching the first day, because all that does is make it so we can't change our minds later.
Mina wrote:I'll let Imkingdavid answer himself on his definition of "antitown," but do you suspect I am Innocent, dry-fit? Do you think his behaviour is a sign of scumminess?
IAI is one of the players I suspect the most, but the main reason I asked IKD that question is because it seemed strange to say a player isn't acting anti-town right after they had gone on a self-voting tantrum.
Oso wrote:Second, now Dry-fit is the one who is stretching. I have posted a defense against Elmo and IaI's votes against me here. It holds almost no analysis except for the part where I say I might have drawn IaI's vote because following the RC/Percy player chain of votes on Sotty7 for questioning IaI backwards, leads right back to IaI.
Maybe analysis wasn't the right word. It appeared to me that you were getting too worked up about early votes. It seemed obvious that Red had simply missed IAI say Ben's plan was scummy. If saying something verifiably wrong is almost always worthy of a vote, is Nikanor scummy for claiming daycop?
Furculow's posts up to this point have been terrible. He asks people to tell him which wagon is best, jumps on one of the biggest wagons, and then suggests we name all the scum and set up chain lynches.
However, that does look like a slip by jason.
Unvote. Vote: jasonT1981
He doesn't even really talk about anything. He addresses Mina and Oso, mainly Mina. Are scum really going to be communicating like that in the early-game?
unvote
I feel like they would be more likely to place suspicion elsewhere, and distance with votes. I feel like Dry-Fit could easily have been doing that. I'm going to ISO jason.
he has excuses...
feels the need to over-explain for mistakes as seen here:
jasonT1981 wrote:
jasonT1981 wrote:
He has posted at least 4 times out of ten posts and most seem almost gloating that the odds favor scum... almost like a scum hidden gloat post after hitting a cop or doc in the night
Correction
He has posted about Stats at least 4 times out of ten posts and most seem almost gloating that the odds favor scum... almost like a scum hidden gloat post after hitting a cop or doc in the night
This is more like a scum hidden gloat post for pushing a policy lynch which scum use in opposition of being openly scummy. It's easier on the mind to lynch someone for "bad play" if you're scum.
jasonT1981 wrote:sorry, have not been on as much been packing for London and had friends over to the house so not spent much time on here. I would suspect there is scum on my wagon as it seems an easy lynch now especially with how my words are twisted... Scum suspects are IAI, Elmo and Fur.. this post is all wrong in my opinion
Furcolow wrote:
unvote;
vote: jasont1981
i don't want him to be cleared
if he was scum he would have made the same defense he made
i haven't heard anything from him, and i read nikanor as town
we can take our time, there is no rush. even if we don't get a lynch by halloween, or if we do, the day will still keep going.
We have about 2 weeks still to lynch, so this isn't damning, but JasonT should have his vote out somewhere by now. I am happy to lynch him because I feel if he was town his vote would be
somewhere
.
He DOESNT want me to be cleared? why???? because it will actually mean him to scumhunt or look elsewhere.. as I said, I am the popular wagon.. this all feels like a easy jump on to me.
Has not heard anything from me? ive posted quite a bit... every day in fact near enough except for yesterday..
tries to make me scummier by saying I have no vote atm.. if he looks back I have had a few of them Furs post is nothing but a quick bandwagon jump in an attempt to push a lynch.
vote:Furcolow
Speaking of wanting to lynch someone for bad play, he is trying to push a lynch on me here.
He is also doing it through OMGUS
pretty sure this is the last scum VOTE: Jason
Note: Green in post changed to blue. Read the rules.
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 3:36 pm
by Percy
Vote: Mina
I think Mina has a better chance of being buddies with Dry-fit and Baby Spice, and I think that either Sotty7 or Mina are scum, given Baby Spice's strange play while her wagon was going on.
Mina wrote:There's a lot I'd really like to say about Percy in particular.
I still don't know whether you think I'm scum. Your behaviour yesterday with all the "trap" talk was very confusing.
Nul wrote:I've just read up to page 35 and I agree that Percy could be scum too.
Urgh, what shit. Yeah, I could be scum, and nothing has cleared me, but if you really have read the last 35 pages, you'll be able to tell me what you like about the case against me...?
Furcolow wrote:JasonT really likes to bandwagon
I lol'd. Jason is almost certainly town, Furc - the Dry-fit interaction is a pretty good indicator.
Hey Mina,
Percy wrote:Finally, I don't get whether you think I'm scum or not. You're saying how awesome it is that I fell into your oh-so-cleverly placed trap, but do you honestly think I'm the last scum? Or do you think it's Empking, the person you're voting? I documented in my last post how you went from "Percy is obviously town" to whatever the hell this is. Explain, kthx.
Your rhetoric yesterday was pretty full on. You were obviously attempting to get a case against me going (or at the very least some momentum in the anti-Percy wagon that isn't powered by shallow thinking and stubborn idiocy), but pulled it back at the last minute and haven't revisited it. Devote me a wall to this theme, please.
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 6:50 pm
by Thor665
Did I just read wagon analysis from furcolow? Oy!
@Percy - read on Nul?
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 6:50 pm
by Thor665
Well, Nul/Elmo to be precise.
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 6:58 pm
by Percy
I think he's probably town. I thought Elmo was town. I think his case against Sotty7 is pretty bad, though; the three tells he isolates (for no good reason I can see) apply equally, if not better, to others.
In particular, Sotty7 has been quite active, and there was some substantial interaction between Baby Spice and Sotty later down the track. Sure it's not "early game", but looking at the Dry-fit wagon has netted us nothing so far and I don't see anything particularly persuasive.
I've been jumping at Sotty's shadow for a lot of the game, because I simply can never read her, and she is fucking amazing at this game. I'd certainly lynch Sotty before I lynched IAI, Benmage or Jason, but I think right now that Mina is our last scum.
@Sotty7
: What is your read on Thor?
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 7:04 pm
by Benmage
Percy wrote:
@Sotty7
: What is your read on Thor?
Sotty, why aren't you voting/voting thor?
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 7:27 pm
by Nul
Sotty7 wrote:And yet I am on every page bar five and six, with multiple posts for the most part.
Scums lurking is usually due to their inexperience but seeing as you've been playing this game for 2 years and have 3500 posts, I'd guess you would know how to type alot and still appear townie.
Sotty7 wrote:mongoose also didn't mention:
Elmo
Percy
Kscope (unless you count mentioning his avatar)
Percy wrote:
mongoose wrote:Im a bit suprised it almost a 4:1 ratio to the scum, but it should be about that much.
You're surprised, but it should be about 4:1? Huh?
(It's not 4:1, it's 61:39, which is about 1.56:1.)
(( Also, a two man scumteam in a 12 person mini has ~65% chance of victory
mathematically
, but I don't think it's anything like that in practice. I'd say this setup favours town, frankly.))
I'm happy with my vote for now.
You can see here Percy answering a question from mongoose at a very early stage in the game; page 3.
One of my scumtell theories is that scums will try as much as possible to not make contact with each other during the early stage of the game, say pages 1-5. I think that if Percy was scum, he would of let someone else answer the question.
As for Kscope:
Dry-fit wrote:
KaleiÐoscøpe wrote:Make sense?
No.
Vote: KaleiÐoscøpe
This is Dry-fit's second post and thus has reduced the probability of Kscope being scum on my list.
As for Elmo, I didn't even analyze any of his posts.
Sotty7 wrote:This trend is just bogus. Scums will totally bandwagon with each other.
Well, you can quite clearly see that Dry-fit and Mongoose never once voted or FOS'd for the same people.
Look if you don't believe me, pick any random complete mafia game, for example: http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... &start=100
The scums in this game are Empking, volkan and Tenchi, yet you see the following voting pattern.
Not voting -- Kinetic, Slicey, curiouskarmadog
15 alive, 8 to lynch.
Note that this is the first votecount I found where a majority of the people had placed a vote. It's around page 5.
Sotty7 wrote:As mentioned, your player slot as well as Percy and Kscope ALSO fit this profiling you are pushing on me. You have shown nothing that has set me apart from them or you. On top of that you have purposely left out parts of my interactions with confirmed scum to make this all sound and look better than what it is. Why is that?
Ok, here are the reasons I think you are scum:
1. You have no interactions with Dry-fit and Mongoose during the early stage of the game (page 1-5) thus proving point 2 of my list of scum trends.
2. Your suspects are always different to your mafia partners. Point 3 of my list of trends and as I just shown above, this is a recurring theme that scums generally do.
Well I agree that Percy has a probability of being scum but you are just the highest on my list right now.
Another thread where scums purposely avoid voting/suspecting the same people.
The scums are: nobody special, haylen, twomz
The first vote count with majority of people voting looks like this:
SaintKerrigan (1): Bunnylover
seth (2): Phaen, Me=Weird
TheLonging (1): Nachomamma8
Twomz (1): Andrius
Not voting (3): animorpherv1,
Haylen
, Kise
So I guess we can say that point three is pretty damn accurate in most cases.
I seriously picked these threads at random by the way.
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 7:37 pm
by Nul
Point three usually only occurs during the early stages of the game btw.
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 8:11 pm
by Nul
Sotty7 wrote:?
This is some kind of strange conformation bias your showing here.
Well I already explained why I think benmage, Mina and Kscope are innocent. But in case you didn't catch it, here it is again:
They made contact with the scums or the scums made contact with them during the early stage of the game.
Don't believe me? Go read through pages 1-10.
I ISOed everyone, and just did a find on the word VOTE and jotted down everyones votes on the first few pages of their ISO. I tried to get all the day one votes but I might have extended myself with a couple of people.
So another premise of yours busted. Why isn't KScope getting more heat? He seems to check all the boxes I do, why are you glossing over him? Why are you ignoring Babyspice?
Babyspice era was during the later stage of the game, and it is my belief that all the crucial things happen during the early game because a lot of external factors come to play during the mid-late game where it is harder to catch out scum.
And again I already explained why Kscope is low on my suspect list. He mentions the scums several times during the early game and Dry-fit's second post was directed at Kscope. Let's repeat that again. SECOND POST. How many times do I have to repeat lol. I thought I already wrote the reason on my first post but fine I'll quote it again for you since you're apparently a girl :
Well that may be because I'm not good at structuring arguments but the posts mainly revolves around the idea of my third point; the early relationship of the scums.
And where in those posts did Locke say you were town? All he did was made a logical case against Mina in those posts you've linked which I don't entirely agree with.
The reason I think Locke was killed is because he sounded like he actually knew what he was doing with all his post analysis and big words; i.e. the smartest in the game.
Which is a obvious choice for scum to kill in the case that he puts a logical case against you later in the game.
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 8:13 pm
by Nul
lol reading over my post
what i meant by "because you're apparently a girl" isn't supposed to be sexism ok lol
i mean it in a nice way since being nice to girls is the orthodox of society
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 8:20 pm
by Nul
So right now my list of scums look like this:
1. sotty7 75% of being scum
2. percy 32% of being scum
3. I am Innocent 29% of being scum
4. thor 26% of being scum
5. jason 5%
6. benmage 4%
7. furcolow 4%
8. mina 2%
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 8:24 pm
by Nul
woops Kscope would be 5%
i'd doubt a scum would be dumb enough to keep repeating lynch x every page
in fact i think hes been saying that one thing for half the game LOL
however his lack of activity and small posts do seem scummy otherwise he would be around 2% on my list
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 8:28 pm
by Nul
Does anyone find it funny that most of Kscope's posts usually consists of one sentence along the lines of 'lynch x'
and hes been playing for 4 years
hahahahaaaha
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 8:29 pm
by Thor665
C-c-c-c-combobreaker.
Egads sir - thy point was made eight posts ago or something.
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 8:33 pm
by Nul
o wait, sotty's actually been playing for 5 years,
Posted: Wed Dec 08, 2010 8:52 pm
by Nul
which further proves my point that inexperience scums will lurk and experience scums will not.
and btw heres the last game that i've played, this is the first voting count where majority of people have voted
After rereading the thread, I would also like to add that something about sotty's defense sound really fishy.
Like how he's trying to divert attention by pushing the suspicion on other people such as this comment:
Sotty7 wrote:So another premise of yours busted. Why isn't KScope getting more heat? He seems to check all the boxes I do, why are you glossing over him?
I don't know about you guys but his defense seems to be shouting something along the lines of: "Look at X and Y! I'm innocent! Stop paying attention to me! Yes, look at X and Y!"
Looks like sotty's just dug himself an even bigger hole.
Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 1:08 am
by jasonT1981
ok first of Fur...
you do realize that BOTH Dry-Fit.. and then Baby were pushing lynches on me. And both flipped scum?
Also, I like to wagon? LOL... have you been reading the game? you will see for the most part I have gone AGAINST the wagon and voted Percy? only changing when I felt there was credible evediance.
Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 1:31 am
by Furcolow
at that particular day-phase, you were on both of the major wagons, one of which ended on town
furthermore, the location of your votes is sketchy
you also OMGUS and push on VIs
Posted: Thu Dec 09, 2010 1:40 am
by I Am Innocent
Nul wrote:So right now my list of scums look like this:
1. sotty7 75% of being scum
2. percy 32% of being scum
3. I am Innocent 29% of being scum
4. thor 26% of being scum
5. jason 5%
6. benmage 4%
7. furcolow 4%
8. mina 2%
With 1 scum left, is there any reason why this does not add up to 100%?
This is a wagon on scum.
Scum died from this wagon.
This point is NOT crucial, as the scum on the wagon did not know they were wagonning scum.
AGar and Vezokpiraka are the scum on the wagon on Mothrax, who was scum.
AGar and Vezokpiraka knew they were scum together. Mothrax was scum with Sociopath. They were on the same team, not knowing who the two partners were individually (my interpretation, it might be wrong, i'm not perfect).
This is really the first lynch I am even quoting here at all, to disprove your ridiculous theory. Sure, a lot of the time scum shift their votes around to kickstart wagons, I'm not disputing that. Your theory will nab you some scum, sure... But this game is a prime example of why NOT to right off Kaleidoscope for Dry-Fit voting him.
Bussing happens, and it shouldn't clear shit, and the above cleared AGar in that game pretty much...
Sure, you can be like "well, he was acting genuine, as he didn't know mothrax was scum", and you would be right, but I can at least disprove your bullshit by showing you two scum on this wagon of a scum they didn't know. Your case being on Sotty, though, is definitely unlike one being on Vezokpiraka. It would be more like if you had one on a feminine version of AGar that is less abrasive.
My meaning behind this is trying to impart some wisdom to you Nul, that while overanalyzing wagons can be good, it is not good to "clear" anyone. There are weird moves that scum will make, like the shift from the Percy wagon to the RedCoyote wagon Jason made. Could town do that? Sure. I believe it is scummy, though, and we don't have a lot to go on at this point.
I believe the case on Sotty is bogus. She might be a LyLobility, but hell I'm a liability myself. Having Sotty/Mina in lylo is more lylobility than a VI like myself, though, because of the propensity of people to not vote for them and to have them wiggle out of anything as scum. To me, THAT is a true policy lynch, as opposed to someone who is an idiot. I would rather policy lynch someone who you just can't get a fuckin' read on.
Back on track, there was 1 person left in that game, a mafia win...
Agar.
I don't want to repeat a situation like that in LyLo by clearing someone who has bussed.
Note: Green in post changed to blue. Read the rules.
: