Mafiascum.net

If he's insane, we are mislynching TIP now, that's the easiest one. The second is after the claims, town opportunitistically lynching a guilty, though you could call that partly on the town as well for taking that shot, that's not just on the mod.

On the other hand, the argument I already posted in my first post is that it's unnecessarily complicating a fine setup and that bbmolla is a nice guy. I repeated this after you complained there might be sanities in play. Also, I asked why, if there are sanities, why there wouldn't be more then one insane? Why just TIP? Both got points got no reply from you.

I'd really like to see you try to come up with a likely theory how TIP is insane. You already said you dont like the reasons why TIP is being voted, I want to see my favourite white knight F-16 again. Tell me why we are wrong.

My alternative theory is that we have:
A sane cop, insane cop, naive cop, paranoid cop, seer, IC + one werewolf with a kill + two mafia without a kill
There is nothing unnecessarily complicated about it.

I don't disagree that your theory is plausible. I am cautioning against acting as if you already know the setup with near certainty.

I am not going to spend a massive amount of time defending TIP - I only defend strong townreads that way. Pitoli was one. If I annoyed you by going all out to defend a strong townread (that flipped town), I can't do anything to help that unless you are arguing that I should have let you lynch Pitoli and that would have been less annoying for you.

/me slinks back into the game...

Your theory puts us in MyLo though. Should we No Lynch then?

Well, it doesn't because even if we lynch town, the werewolf could shoot mafia. That puts us at 5P with one werewolf, one mafia, 3 town left. So, it is not Mislynch or Lose.

Why are there 3 scum in a 9p game. We are in virtual lylo right now then, after just one lynch. Two factions in a micro are not known to be balanced.

In post 1113, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:

Claims and stuff

Player	Claim	Investigations	Results	Notes
Bulbazak	Town Cop	None	None	Lynched D1, Town Cop, Breadcrumb Suspected:
Pitoli	Town Seer	None	None	Died N1, Town Seer, no breadcrumb? Suspected:
ETL	Town Cop	N1: LS	N1: Not Guilty	Breadcrumb
LS	Mod-confirmed IC	N/A	N/A	None.
TPR	Town Cop	N1: Sangres	N1: ?? (Presumed Not Guilty based on conclusions in 1096.)	Breadcrumb?
TIP	Town Cop	N1: F16	N1: Guilty	Supposed breadcrumbs. Likely false result or fake.
F16	Town Cop	N1: LS	N1: Not Guilty	Breadcrumb
TBone	Town Cop	N1: Sangres	N1: Not Guilty	No breadcrumbs. Claims he ignored F16's CC, hammered Bulb D1. Slot pushed Pitoli all day long.
Sangres	Town Cop	N1: TIP	N1: Not Guilty	No Breadcrumb

Also, given the distribution of investigations, and if you are right about all sanities there, TIP must be paranoid (he's the only with a guilty), Sangres would be the first guess for being insane (since he's not doubled), but that can't be because we just confirmed TIP as paranoid in this line of thought. You still wanted to have him lynched on meta reasons, btw. Anyway, that means at least one of sangres/etl/you is scum, unless sangres is scum in which case it could be ETL/you because only 2 people can be sane or town (and sangres investigated the confirmed town in this line of thought (tip) as town). Could've been bulba, if he was one of the naive/sane though, sangres is scum since one of me/t-bone is insane. Anyway, for certain is that one of you and ETL is scum, and at least one of me and t-bone.

All in all, you stripe out so many possibilities of where the roles ended up because we ended up investigating a lot of similar people, that you stripe away half the possibilities this setup could have had, while it is already a 9p micro with two factions which in my memory only happened once. Yes, that's unlikely.

Also, you are doing more then being cautioning. You were promising other possibilities that were more likely. I see none. Try again F-16. Talking about a 3 scum multiple faction 9p game just to have an argument isn't really helping.

It's more or less MyLo because you're banking on an anti-town faction to do a protown thing. We're in MyLo because of the IC, LS probably gets killed tonight. Make no bones about it Pitoli's Seer claim is probably the biggest motivation for why he got killed. If we mislynch, the remaining town members are kingmakers in your scenario. It's a terrible idea to be gambling the town's fate with the actions of an anti-town faction, so if this is the set-up you believe we're playing...what do we do? What is everyone's motivation in this set-up to start Day 2? Shouldn't their be another guilty result?

TPR, going through the permutations, what could the sanity distribution be based on those results?

Actually considering we have 7 cop claims with two of those being faced, it's impossible to figure out because either A) someone is random or B) there is one sanity that is doubled up. So nevermind that.

In post 1155, T-Bone wrote:It's more or less MyLo because you're banking on an anti-town faction to do a protown thing. We're in MyLo because of the IC, LS probably gets killed tonight. Make no bones about it Pitoli's Seer claim is probably the biggest motivation for why he got killed. If we mislynch, the remaining town members are kingmakers in your scenario. It's a terrible idea to be gambling the town's fate with the actions of an anti-town faction, so if this is the set-up you believe we're playing...what do we do? What is everyone's motivation in this set-up to start Day 2? Shouldn't their be another guilty result?

TPR, going through the permutations, what could the sanity distribution be based on those results?

meh, I did a quick try on that, and I realize now I missed one different way it could have gone. There's a reason you do this later on in dethy. Some things are already lucky (sangres investigating tip, only one guilty, people investigating an IC and people investigating the same), but even then I guess half the possibilities are still up.

Still, that means that that setup is only 50% as likely, and on it's own it's would already be uncommon. Now it's doubly so.

TBH, it's a bit of a waste of time. F-16 can say what he wants, that's one hell of a complicated setup, throwing two factions in such a small game, getting a town to virtual lylo day 2, and on top of that having them figure out their results of just one night. It's not close to a working setup, and a working two faction 9p is hard. F-16 is arguing because I asked him to back up his claim that what we were talking about wasn't the most likely, not because it actually makes sense. It's not terribly productive.

@ETL, and TPR. I think the majority of us agree with TPR's theory on the set-up. F-16 is the only one to really oppose this theory. So, lets say that for some reason we all take F-16's theory as the correct one instead. What does that accomplish for him, and how does it change things?

I say this because I've been trying to rationalize TIP's claim. And I wonder if it was a bus attempt gone wrong. If we have a scumteam of TIP and F-16, and F-16 was expecting us to assume sanities were in play (which I originally thought, and which the scumteam may actually believe anyway) and that's why they had TIP claim a guilty on him. Am I way off base here? Anyone having similar thoughts?

ooey you guys post a lot. catching up.

A 3 scum multiple faction 9P game in a micro isn't implausible - look at this setup for instance.

Your first paragraph above makes sense though so I'll agree to shelve this for now.

I think TIP is likely scum based on meta-analysis, not because of your theory. I'll wait for Sangres and LastSurvivor to share their opinions before we move to lynch him.

the most likely setup that makes tip town in my opinion is:

5 sane cops, 1 seer, 1 innocent child, 1 werewolf, 1 werewolf framer.

It deals with the argument why there's only one guilty, it doesn't deal particulary well with the thought that the mod wouldn't mess more with us then just changing the VT. It perhaps is a bit funny to have the IC possibly be investigated as scum, should town organise themselves as investigating the IC. But I think this is less likely then the setup without the framer, because I don't think bbmolla would mess twice with his town in a game. It's all a bit too much of a good thing.

Also, I don't think that if TIP was town, that he would have pointed at pitoli's lynch and talked about wifom. He'd be annoyed at people not believing him. Simply on the way the claim is done, I don't like it very much. The setup is pointing at him, his play is, I'm not terribly comfortable with tip surviving. And that means I have to assume he's being as silly that he fakeclaimed a result when he could have known it was bad play.

I guess in other words, I trust bbmolla more to be a good mod then I trust tip to be a good player. That's in essence the choice I am making.

Yeah I'm not lynching F16 today, thx.

F16: There is a time and place to play devil's advocate. When we are actively trying to determine the setup to find the proper lynch, throwing in wild theories only distracts.

I do NOT think there are sanities in play here. Not in the least. As we have it, the setup seems very simple and looks to work very well. When you start talking about sanities, you start losing the purpose of the setup, and the theme behind it. We are back to why pitoli died, and I do not see any other reasonable assumption other than the fact that she was indeed the only one who could have given us true results.

As for TIP's claim, I'd like to mention occam's razor again, and suggest that he made a dumb move without thinking. I have done it before as scum. He is not a dumb person but everyone has lapses in judgment and it did not seem to me AT ALL that he was really following the game, even if we assume that he is in fact a WW. If we assume that he's town, we have the same conclusion from his posts. His entire ISO is full of nonsense early on, and then requests to be "filled in" and "who do I vote for". It's convenient and adds to the theory that he just wasn't paying attention or thinking.

Yeah, okay. I don't see the point in continuing to persue this argument when we are all agreed that we ought to lynch TIP today even if the reasons are different.

Assuming TIP is scum, I'll be fairly certain that TPR is town. With my townread on you, that leaves either T-Bone or Sangres as the buddy.

So we're not getting into circle discussions....I'm ready to end the day on this lynch when everyone has said what they needed to say. We apparently have been discussing this for 3 or 4 pages now.

I want Sangres to come back with their analysis that they said they had. I am ready to end the day after that happens.

idk if there's a point where I do want to lynch f-16. There are times where I'd love him to be shot, but lynching I'm not so sure about.

As for partners, sangres is the player I keep returning to. I cannot make sense of their play should they be town. If you take this game as being a swimming pool, tip is the guy who feels with his foot how cold the water is, t-bone, etl and me are playing some ball game, LS is watching the nice people around, F-16 keeps trying to make the biggest splash possible by jumping into the pool. Meanwhile, somehow, sangres is making no waves in the water. Townies push stuff, get accused, have rows while trying to figure out what's going on. The game changes because of what they say. Somehow, I never feel like sangres is doing anything influential. It's just going nowhere. I didn't like their meta post on bulba when it happened, I felt they were trying to make a huge effort for little gain, almost forgot to put the conclusion at the end. Or in other words, the goal wasn't to call bulba scum, it was to show they were making an effort.

So, start of this day (and I won't quote, but you can read page 44 with me):

In post 1076, sangres wrote:

In post 784, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:and then if i

do

decide to vote pitoli because omgdeadline it will come back to bite me later and someone will try to lynch me and use that shit as "evidence". i know this game. it's a scum game.

I would be more willing to lyndh t bone today on account of scuminess. Deadline lunches are usuall pretty important unless you are extremely confident in you town read and would be willing to ever the game if wrong.

No reason to be worried about people using shit reasons against you, though.

Bolded is straight up scum->town. Don't worry, it'll all be fine, while we put a knife in your back.

In post 1077, sangres wrote:

In post 808, The Purple Rose wrote:

In post 802, EspeciallyTheLies wrote:it looks very much like tpr and tbone are scum together, doens't it? i think i disagree.

she is liking him because he's pandering to her preferred lynch.

when bulb was doing it, she did the same thing. i don't think it's as associative as you think.

i would much prefer to lynch tbone. besides, tpr seems to have really good cognitive skills and if she is town she is useful.

p-edit: i'm not planning on voting bulb today.

It's the other way around. I followed his predecessor. Chaosomega caught the tell, disappeared later. I think it was really good scumhunting (which is why I pushed that point when he left) and I think I posted then that I thought chaosomega was town. I haven't had a good reason to doubt that read with his replacement, t-bone.

As for bulb, he was a bit the guy that caught me when I fell, I admit. If he's clever scum, he could have abused my situation there and I'm probably not very immune to buddying. But the case as it's presented now is not a good one.

Did his push on etl not freak you out a bit? You certainly seem to be town reading her based on how you're talking to her at the moment.

This doesn't care about reads, it complains that I have two townreads. Seriously, who was bothered by that?

In post 1082, sangres wrote:My current thought is one wolf and two mafia. I'll get into that after catchup, though.

Which he didn't. The rest of his "catchup" was completely focussed against t-bone. As was his first bit, now you look at it. And a couple of defensive posts.

That's not a catch up, there wasn't a concrete case, it was mobilizing ETL on T-bone and that's about it. And who talked about it? Nobody. It was going with yesterdays flow.


I guess I could try to rush out the votecount analysis of the last moments of yesterday, but please don't rush me too much.

The Purple Rose, you seem way too upset that I didn't let you lynch Pitoli Day1. Give it a rest. If you are indeed town, that is a discussion for endgame.

It's the way how, not that it didn't happen. I meant that I wished you'd play the game. I already analysed how you weren't doing it. I'm not the only one accusing you here of playing devils advocate. Arguing just for sake of arguing. It's frustrating to play with. I've scratched the lines like "do you just disagree with this theory because you don't think I'm town or just because you dont like me" multiple times from my posts already, today and yesterday. You go to extraordinary lengths sometimes, just to disagree with me.

Also, there is a post about those votes, but they don't give a lot. Two things are worth mentioning. In post 889 and beyond, sangres refuses to vote T-Bone while they have him highest on the scum list and they would put him as a flash wagon on L-1 then. They post but stay on bulba. Other thing is that bulba claimed before t-bone voted. T-bone before had not considered bulba, and if he was scum, he'd know bulba claimed vanilla. I don't think/know that scum would have dropped the hammer there in such a way. This is a bit of a strained point, I know.

Sangres not voting t-bone when it mattered kind of is, I think. It's weird. If you wanted a t-bone lynch, that was the moment.

Pitoli's townflip proves that if you are town, you were wrong about the "GF tell" which you so adamantly pushed over and over. I never tunneled any player and always considered the best option. Pitoli was a strong townread and that was one player I did not want to lynch. I wouldn't have minded if it was a nullread that you tunneled. The whole point of this game is to optimize who to lynch, defend townreads, and push your scumreads. Sitting by and watching my second strongest townread get lynched was more than what I was willing to watch. Your reaction at the beginning of the day was to simply claim that you were annoyed at me even before I said anything about your theory.

Regarding your theory, I agree now that you are probably right. It makes sense. It is elegant. If you are right, then you have my apologies for distracting you with what would be obvious is an inferior theory.

I agree with the concerns about Sangres although I believe that if they were scum with TIP, they would be here pushing alternative lynches or bussing the fuck out of him. Scum don't lurk when the game state is unfavorable to them. I won't discount Sangres/T-Bone scumteam either (but I think it is unlikely). At this point, I am more confident on TIP. Sangres also don't usually bus that much if they can help it which again points against Sangres/T-Bone scumteam.

Can't Sangres just be 'offline' rather than 'lurking'?

Well, no because they are not offline and both heads are posting liberally elsewhere. It doesn't make them scum but it definitely makes them "lurking."

My scum picks, other than TIP, are between sangres and TBone.

p-edit: F16..... that means they aren't logged into the hydra. I'm sure they'll be back. It's null given the amount they post here.

I agree that it is null. I just thought that if were indeed scum with TIP, they would take the time to do something about the impending lynch.

I've decided that you're just weird, F16.