976: mystyry box of sylvyr I: isis game. day 3

[SKYEscrapers]

huh

[SKYEscrapers]

huh

but from a different head

[SKYEscrapers]

so, if i take you as town, which i had been, it has to be gypyx and mastina? so, the only people i should consider voting today would be akarin or mastina.

[SKYEscrapers]

i don't think scum!akarin needed to do this

[SKYEscrapers]

akarin and dunn team seems really weird because they could probably have let me and mastina go after each other

[Akarin]

I guess it is worth re-re-evaluating Gypyx, stakes are kinda high at this point.

Didn't like the feeling of coordination going into this though.

Really need to take time to just reread like the whole game with all the flips in mind.

[Akarin]

I had originally took Mastina to be crumbing Doctor back on D1. I was sure she'd be toast.

TGP seems like such a weird kill though. Like why would Mastina + SKYE team kill TGP and leave me alive, they'd have known I wasn't protected. Pretty sure I was more suspicious of both of them at times than TGP was.

[Dunnstral]

She's crumbed doctor as scum doctor before

[Dunnstral]

Remember, I have an alien shot tonight. Due to the way roleblockers work, the same scum probably can't both roleblock me and kill me if I also target them

I plan on announcing who I'm targetting before night

[mastina]

@mastina, would you agree that dunn's claim is a lot shadier than mine?

Objectively, yes. I mechanically know that my night action failed last night--which lines up with your claim.

Dunnstral's claimed action has no such backing. Either he's lying, or you're lying about being 1x and blocked him N1. He claimed to have targeted DT N1 as a Loud alien, and yet on D2 DT showed absolutely no signs of having been targeted by Dunnstral. I searched DT's D2 iso and there's no hint, no sign, no query to Dunn, nothing. Which is heavily indicative of, EITHER: Dunnstral is lying and did not target DT N1, OR: Dunnstral is telling the truth, but someone blocked him N1. Given that I know the blocker cannot be me and cannot be Akarin (see below for my explanation), that leaves you/Gypyx as the only two who could block him N1.

Ergo, there is a genuine case of a, so to speak, pseudo-2v2, Akarin+Dunnstral vs. You+Gypyx.

Dunnstral also has zero hints of his role being real. He didn't counterclaim you yesterday, and he didn't show suspicion of you yesterday. He continued to insist you were town even after you claimed 1x Alien. So yes, objectively, his claim is far more suspect. I personally have reason to believe your claim is at least partially correct, whereas Dunnstral's claim has zero backing and zero evidence behind it.

Okay well I'm an N2 invéstigatoire
Innocent always means the investigative target is innocent, guilty means they could be guilty or innocent. Pretty sure that's the how-long-to-trust-a-red-traffic-light sentence.
I checked Dunn last night and he's

TOWN

So let's cover every possible scumteam combination right now, and then go through them.

Akarin-mastina:

I know this team to not be possible. Beyond that, given the SKYE-Dunn 1v1 where their claims are hard-ccs of each other, at least one of them must be scum.

Akarin-SKYEscrapers:

While it's theoretically possible that in a SKYE-Dunn 1v1, Akarin chooses to get on Dunn's side and indirectly bus SKYEscrapers, this is so incredibly beyond the realm of improbable that it's literally impossible. Akarin doing this would be gamethrowing, so this team is not possible.

Akarin-Gypyx:

Given the Dunnstral-SKYEscrapers 1v1, this team is not possible.

Akarin-Dunnstral:

This is actually the most plausible scumteam to me ignoring individual reads. I actually thought that on D1, Akarin-Dunnstral was a possible team, but I convinced myself Akarin was town as the reason for why it wasn't possible. However, Akarin's strong defense of Dunnstral for almost the entirety of the game beyond early D1 makes this an incredibly probable team.

SKYEscrapers-mastina:

I know this team to not be possible.

SKYEscrapers-Dunnstral:

Given Akarin's claim, this team combination is not possible, because Dunnstral cannot be scum unless Akarin is also scum.

SKYEscrapers-Gypyx:

Possible team combo, but one which doesn't seem to fit well as SKYEscrapers has been at the throat of Gypyx for most of the game.

Gypyx-mastina:

I know this team to not be possible. Beyond that, given the SKYE-Dunn 1v1 where their claims are hard-ccs of each other, at least one of them must be scum.

Gypyx-Dunnstral:

Given Akarin's claim, this team combination is not possible, because Dunnstral cannot be scum unless Akarin is also scum.

Dunnstral-mastina:

I know this team to not be possible. Beyond that, given Akarin's claim, this team combination is not possible, because Dunnstral cannot be scum unless Akarin is also scum.



So eliminating the teams that cannot be true, you're left with...

SKYEscrapers-mastina:

I, personally, know this team combo to not be possible. If SKYEscrapers is town, then they also know that this combo is not possible. It should however be apparent to others as not being the scumteam combo, because I have been calling for the death of SKYEscrapers the entire game, and them for the death of me the entire game. If we were scum together, we'd have been mutually bussing from pretty much the getgo.

SKYEscrapers-Gypyx:

This scumteam combo is basically process of elimination.
If you accept that SKYEscrapers' and Dunnstral's roles cannot both be town (and that is a very reasonable assumption to make), then one of them must be scum. If Akarin is not scum, then Dunnstral would be town, necessitating that SKYE be scum. And if Akarin isn't scum, given we have two scum, the second scum would be Gypyx.
Play-wise, this seems like an unlikely combo as SKYEscrapers has been pushing Gypyx the whole game, but I will be reviewing it to give it due process.
It requires my townread on Gypyx to be wrong, but does mean my game-long scumread on SKYEscrapers would be right.
Notably: SKYEscrapers has had moments that pinged town to me.

Akarin-Dunnstral:

I legit thought that Akarin was Dunnstral's scumbuddy at one point during the latter half of D1 after Akarin switched from attacking Dunnstral to defending him. Heck, I wrote an entire post saying as much--but I deleted it, going, "nahhhh. Akarin was pressing Dunnstral early and otherwise looks town. Akarin can be wrong town here who was right on Dunnstral initially but switched to wrong on him later".

In hindsight.

I am kinda wishing that I didn't delete the post where I made this callout.

Because in hindsight.

Akarin's switch from attacking Dunnstral earlier when he was at no risk of death, to defending Dunnstral for the rest of the game when he was in danger, including an innocent result claim on Dunnstral in

eliminate wrong and town loses

, is textbook scumbuddy behavior, of scum defending their scumbuddy and using their leverage within the townbloc to prevent the town from eliminating Dunn.

It requires my townread of Akarin to be wrong, but does mean my game-long scumread on Dunnstral would be right.
Notably: I've never once seen so much as one iota of a reason to townread Dunnstral. His play has been scum through and through. I also don't know Akarin's towngame, and Akarin has been suspected by many of the dead town. Akarin being scum would also explain the Mathblade nightkill, maybe the TGP nightkill as well. Also, notably, Akarin claimed only after all info was on the table, meaning a fakeclaim would be easy to make in lylo. Akarin also was a heavy pusher for the DT elimination, when DT suspected Akarin.

So right now, I lean towards, of the two possible scumteams, it being Akarin-Dunnstral, but I want to review the whole game to check it out before voting.

[mastina]

so, if i take you as town, which i had been, it has to be gypyx and mastina? so, the only people i should consider voting today would be akarin or mastina.

Not quite.

Me as scum demands you as scum as well--not something possible to you, or to me.

My role makes zero sense as a scum role, and I'm not sure which head this was but Ari you should remember the LAST time "mastina could be fakeclaiming her role!" came up when I was a fucking protective role. (Hint, Ari: it was a rather infamous Large Theme, where people kept on saying my bodyguard claim

must

be a lie. Surprise surprise! It wasn't, because I don't. fucking. lie. About my role. I am a combined doctor-tracker. That's not a fucking role I would fakeclaim.)

There's no vigs in this game, so a scum doctor makes no sense; my role makes a lot of sense as a town role.

Given that my role is not a scum role.

And given that Dunnstral is literally claiming a stronger version of your role that isn't backed up by evidence (DT showed no indication of knowing Dunnstral visited you; Dunnstral had multiple times where people thought his claim was explicitly 'Town Neighbor, nothing else' and did not say otherwise; Dunnstral's claim requires him to have been roleblocked N1 when no possibility of that exists unless you're scum lying about your role, which you personally know to obviously not be the case).

Dunnstral must be scum, from your perspective.
And given that Akarin is claiming Dunnstral is an innocent.
Akarin would, necessarily, be Dunnstral's scumbuddy.

So to you, the votes should be Akarin or Dunnstral.

i don't think scum!akarin needed to do this

Doesn't she?
If Dunnstral-Akarin is the scumteam.
Last page's events were enough where today's elimination was strongly looking like it'd be Dunnstral--you were leaning that way, Gypyx was leaning that way, I was leaning that way.
And I am a doctor-tracker, who if I wasn't the nightkill, could either foil the kill or catch Akarin making the kill.
If Akarin is forced to nightkill me due to my role.
Do you think that Akarin wins the 3p lylo when Gypyx has been suspicious of Akarin the whole game and I was hard-defending Gypyx?

If Akarin got into a 3p where she needed to kill me, and I made it clear Gypyx was town, and Gypyx held onto his Akarin suspicion...she loses that 3p lylo.
If Akarin leaves me alive, she loses that 3p lylo or 4p mylo.

If Akarin is scum, then yes, she needs to claim an innocent on Dunnstral today because I was heading towards voting Dunn today and still lean towards that, pending a game reread.

[mastina]

akarin and dunn team seems really weird because they could probably have let me and mastina go after each other

Isn't that exactly what they're doing?

Dunnstral has called me scum every gameday and voted me every day phase.
Dunnstral's claim is setting you up as a scum liar, because it's claiming that his action must've been roleblocked when he targeted DT--requiring you to be lying about being a 1x alien that targeted me last night, that you targeted him N1.
Dunnstral's play and claim are both poised towards calling us both scum.

And Akarin?

I'm leaning SKYE + Mastina pretty hard right now.

Is literally calling us the scumteam. It doesn't get more 'go after each other' than that.

At this stage, for you to be town, Akarin must be scum.

I'm not convinced you are town; it's possible the scumteam is you + Gypyx.
But there's a pretty damn compelling narrative for Akarin-Dunnstral to be the scumteam, whereas there's less of one for you to be scum with Gypyx.

And if you are town, the best thing you can do is give me the time to reread the game and better parse it to see which team it is.

[mastina]

I had originally took Mastina to be crumbing Doctor back on D1. I was sure she'd be toast.

Yeah I 'crumbed doctor on D1 because no fucking shit, that's my actual fucking role. Half of it anyway.

TGP seems like such a weird kill though. Like why would Mastina + SKYE team kill TGP and leave me alive, they'd have known I wasn't protected. Pretty sure I was more suspicious of both of them at times than TGP was.

Alive and unblocked, mind you. This

is

a good question--why would a mastina-SKYE team, with an alien action, leave you not only alive, but also unblocked?

If you're town, which I lean against but I am willing to hash it out, talk through the possibilities, look at the game and such. But if you are town. Then the only scenario which explains last night is that SKYE needed to roleblock me (because my role was too much of a threat otherwise) and simply didn't have enough kills to kill you as well.

If you are town, the team MUST be SKYE+Gypyx.

And it should also say something.

SKYE, Akarin, whichever of you is town:

It should be a red fucking flag to you that in both of your eyes, the other has good reason to be scum, yet both of you are entertaining that

I

could be scum when all the evidence points to me being town.

[mastina]

SKYE, Akarin, whichever of you is town:

It should be a red fucking flag to you that in both of your eyes, the other has good reason to be scum, yet both of you are entertaining that

I

could be scum when all the evidence points to me being town.

To explain.
Dunnstral has claimed odd-night loud alien, targeting DT N1. DT showed no evidence of having been targeted by Dunn N1 during D2, which suggests that either Dunnstral was roleblocked N1 or that Dunnstral is lying about his role and is scum.

If Dunnstral was roleblocked N1, then this would require someone to be lying about their role. Given the hundreds of games' worth of proof that I do not lie about my role as well as the pretty compelling evidence that I am at least half of what I said with me knowing about things that corroborate my claim. I cannot be the liar.
Therefore, if Dunnstral was roleblocked N1, and Akarin not being the possible roleblocker, the only two possible players that could've roleblocked Dunnstral are Gypyx and SKYEscrapers.

My action got a No Result N2, meaning I was roleblocked by SKYEscrapers N2.

This means that the possibilities are:
-Gypyx is also a roleblocking role, lying about his claim, and blocked Dunn N1
-SKYEscrapers is lying about being 1x and is at least 2x and blocked Dunn N1 and me N2
-Or Dunnstral is lying about his role and is scum.

In none of those scenarios am I scum.

(It should also be noted that if I were scum, I would encourage my scumbuddy to claim their actual role, or one close to it. I never encourage fakeclaiming.)

There is a very, very significant chance of there being an all-but guaranteed 1v1 between SKYEscrapers and Dunnstral.
If Dunnstral is telling the truth, then SKYEscrapers is lying about being a 1x alien and is thus scum;
If SKYEscrapers is telling the truth, then Dunnstral is lying about his claim and is thus scum.

The facts heavily point towards this being the case, where one is scum and the other is town.

And both of you, instead of focusing on that 1v1, are focusing on ME being scum, when in the eyes of each other, the other should be scum. (Akarin should know that, due to Dunnstral being town, SKYE is scum, and that SKYE pushing me is a red flag as to my alignment being town; SKYE should know that, due to them being town, Dunnstral is scum and by proxy of Akarin's claim Akarin is also scum, and Akarin pushing me is a red flag as to my alignment being town.)

You both have mechanical reasons to believe that the other is scum and that I am town.

[SKYEscrapers]

akarin and dunn team seems really weird because they could probably have let me and mastina go after each other

Isn't that exactly what they're doing?

Dunnstral has called me scum every gameday and voted me every day phase.
Dunnstral's claim is setting you up as a scum liar, because it's claiming that his action must've been roleblocked when he targeted DT--requiring you to be lying about being a 1x alien that targeted me last night, that you targeted him N1.
Dunnstral's play and claim are both poised towards calling us both scum.

And Akarin?

I'm leaning SKYE + Mastina pretty hard right now.

Is literally calling us the scumteam. It doesn't get more 'go after each other' than that.

At this stage, for you to be town, Akarin must be scum.

I'm not convinced you are town; it's possible the scumteam is you + Gypyx.
But there's a pretty damn compelling narrative for Akarin-Dunnstral to be the scumteam, whereas there's less of one for you to be scum with Gypyx.

And if you are town, the best thing you can do is give me the time to reread the game and better parse it to see which team it is.

what i mean is, if dunn had never claimed that, i probably would have ended up voting for you. but, by making that claim, he turns what would have been mastina v skyescrapers into dunn v skyescrapers.

but, it is still true that dunn's claim makes no sense with ours. i guess that should be taken as stronger evidence than someone's behaviour

[Dunnstral]

My role and Skye's role aren't counter claims
Whether Skye is mafia is up to debate

I guess it is worth re-re-evaluating Gypyx, stakes are kinda high at this point.

Didn't like the feeling of coordination going into this though.

Really need to take time to just reread like the whole game with all the flips in mind.

I had originally took Mastina to be crumbing Doctor back on D1. I was sure she'd be toast.

TGP seems like such a weird kill though. Like why would Mastina + SKYE team kill TGP and leave me alive, they'd have known I wasn't protected. Pretty sure I was more suspicious of both of them at times than TGP was.

I'll refrain from quick-voting Mastina and listen to what you have to say

I'm thinking mastina and one of Gypyx and Skye

[mastina]

what i mean is, if dunn had never claimed that, i probably would have ended up voting for you.

Did he have any way of knowing that before he claimed?
You claimed to have roleblocked me last night--there was a kill last night. While I could still be scum who didn't make the nightkill, I fundamentally could not be the scum who made the nightkill, because you blocked me and a kill happened.
Nothing on page 45 (the page Dunnstral claimed on) indicated your slot would be voting me, and given the mechanical reasons for me to have greater than usual odds of not being scum...would Dunnstral have any way of knowing you were planning on voting me?

My role and Skye's role aren't counter claims

Oh?

A counterclaim is, simply, a claim in response to another claim. More specifically, it is usually a situation where

two or more players claim the

same role

, or if one player

claims that another's claimed action is impossible

.

This is, per the wiki, the definition of a counterclaim.

Town Alien.

he forgot to say that it's 1-shot

mastina is who.

last night

This is SKYEscrapers' claim: one-shot

Alien

.
They used their role on me, mastina, N2, and thus did not use their action N1.

My role is loud odd-night alien neighbor
night 1 I targeted DoubtingThomas. They never said anything about it to the end, I'm assuming that somebody else roleblocked me

This is your claim, Dunnstral: loud odd-night

Alien

.

FURTHERMORE, per your claim of targeting DoubtingThomas N1, yet them never saying anything about it to the very end, you are claiming that someone else roleblocked you.

If SKYEscrapers' claim is legitimate, then your claim is impossible, because you could not have been roleblocked if SKYEscrapers is telling the truth.

You are claiming the same role with different modifiers. Exact same role: Alien. Just with different modifiers attached.
AND you are claiming an impossible role result, in that your claim and SKYEscrapers' claim cannot coexist because if you were roleblocked N1, then SKYEscrapers cannot be a 1x alien who targeted me N2.

By what logic is this NOT you counterclaiming their role, considering your claim falls under not one but BOTH categories used to define a counterclaim?

Do explain.

Because you're literally fucking counterclaiming and pretending you're not is absolutely insane.

[mastina]

(I would like to put it on the record that the Dunn-Akarin half fingering me as scum even after there's strong mechanical evidence pointing to how Dunnstral's claim is an outright counterclaim to SKYEscrapers' claim by literally both definitions of counterclaim, whereas SKYEscrapers' half reconsidering their push on me after this mechanical information comes to light, certainly does the Dunn-Akarin half no favors here. Like, if Dunn-Akarin are town, then fingering me is literally gamethrowing here, whereas if Dunn-Akarin are scum, fingering me when SKYEscrapers were already suspicious of me is a good way to win since if SKYEscrapers votes me, they would win.)

[Dunnstral]

Spoiler:

vote count 2.4

mastina (2):

Dunnstral, SKYEscrapers

SKYEscrapers (2):

mastina, TheGoldenParadox

not voting (3):

Akarin, DoubtingThomas, Gypyx

with 7 alive, it takes 4 to Finally Forbid someone. day 2 ends november 26th at 11:15 central US time; in (expired on 2020-11-26 11:15:00)

mod notes

• a

[/area]

DoubtingThomas and Gypyx are the reason we can't elim mastina in this situation

I said it was Mastina and one of those two at this time, right?

I think it's Mastina and Gypyx

[Dunnstral]

Tgp too. Tgp dying is strange

[Dunnstral]

Spoiler:

vote count 2.5

SKYEscrapers (2):

mastina, TheGoldenParadox

DoubtingThomas (2):

Akarin, SKYEscrapers

mastina (1):

Dunnstral

not voting (2):

DoubtingThomas, Gypyx

with 7 alive, it takes 4 to Finally Forbid someone. day 2 ends november 26th at 11:15 central US time; in (expired on 2020-11-26 11:15:00)

mod notes

• prodding gypyx
  
• less than a day left !

[/area]

Skye is quick to jump ship here

[Akarin]

I really don't like Mastina's walls there. Just in a sort of visceral way, the amount of words and pushing on how SKYE and I must both know Mastina is innocent, the assumptions going into the hard CC theory without as much waffling as other stuff seems to get.

I don't know, I need to give this game some serious time but major eyebrow raise from those.

[Akarin]

And let's remember, now that Mastina is also bringing it up, possibly to play into Gypyx, Math's scumread on me was based on his thinking I was scumbuddies with NicCage because of how I defended

Nic

. Mastina was actually Math's top scumread if Nic flipped town I believe.

[Akarin]

My scum possible list: Nic, A, Mastina, Ari Hydra, Dunn

That’s the order of priority too imho

assuming Nic is scum.

If Nic is town then A gets temporary reprieve. The last two

(e.g.SKYE & Dunn)

admittedly are PoE as I like everyone else more.

[Akarin]

Also, why would I need to fake innocent Dunn today. SKYE has been townreading me most of the game. In a me-Dunn scum world, why wouldn't I just bus, kill Mastina, and get SKYE to vote Gypyx with me?

I don't like how Mastina leaves this option out. Those walls seem more self-serving bad reasoning than game solving.