Open 822: Popcorn Mafia - Game Over!!

[Toogeloo]

Please tell me Arc hasn't left for the day and we have to wait 24 hours for a flip.

[ArcAngel9]

*DAMN!!!!!! I got the duckkkk ....*

says Hockey.. He is gone wild.. and starts shooting everywhere!!!

But this time the blind shot cost him his own life.

Hectic

is a

Townie

.

HockeyFan

dies for shooting a

Townie

.

HockeyFan

,

gun-bearer

, shot himself on Day 7

Welcome to Day 8

Gun-Bearers:

MOD ANNOUNCEMENT

Hectic

is the

GUNBEARER

, and he/she is the

town

.

[Pavowski]

Would've loved to weigh in before the next shot but hectics strategy is sound and it's a winner, I don't think he's scum though.

Nice one nailing Luke tho hockey

[Pavowski]

Welp somehow I missed Angels update on hectic shot, whee.

Hectic don't rush it! Let's win it this round

[Pavowski]

I’ll do Pav + Marci + Luke I guess.

Digging back on Vultures iso. That rule of 3 thing comes to mind...

[Pavowski]

But in 780 he scum reads enchant as well. Bussing 2 partners? Feels unlikely

[Pavowski]

In 829 he clearly lists his solve as Luke/Enchant/Toog. Why bus 2 partners?1, sure, but 2?

[Pavowski]

Toog has been deliberately cagey about reads most of the game, while always making a point to remind us that the gunbearer shouldn't trust anybody's reads and that if he gets the gun he might not shoot where we think he will.

This is a low-key echo of Enchant's threat to randomly shoot if he gets the gun, which he used to try to dissuade shooting him. It's cleverer here but the parallel is hard to ignore.

Toog has also consistently given Luke as a strong townread even when basically nobody else did in the last few game days. It pinged me weird when he said it (phone posting ATM and lost track of the post number) and it smells funny now with a red Luke flip.

[Pavowski]

The bug in the batter is that from the go, Toog has been begging to get shot.

For scum!Toog this is prob a good tactic in early rounds as it is safe to shoot wrong a few times. I'm not sure it's as good a tactic at this stage of the game but backing off it would probably look worse.

Interestingly both enchant and Luke were begging for the gun on d1 (I can't remember if t3 was as well, again I'm phone posting) and I don't as clearly remember other players doing the same. Certainly not being as cavalier about it.

[Pavowski]

I should probably try to read vulture from a scum perspective and Toog from a town perspective but based on the game thus far I'd shoot Toog before vulture right now if it were me, heckpants

Done spamming, sorry about that.

[Toogeloo]

I swear, Hectic you better either shoot Mafia, or shoot me. Cuz if we go into 3p LimLo and I have to defend myself after begging for the gun all game, I'm going to be sour.

[Pavowski]

If town loses after being at 4 town to 1 scum I'm gonna start drinking again

[Hectic]

Quick, everyone name your favourite type of weapon of mass destruction, and I'll shoot whoever has the worst answer

[Hectic]

But seriously, I'm genuinely just 50/50 between Toog and Vulture. This game really is a win if the town in them just realises or sheeps the fact that Pav is town and never shoots him

I won't be putting in the effort to turn that 50/50 into a 80/20 due to time constraints, so Pav, please figure it out for me. Tell me a name when you're ready, I believe in you.

[Hectic]

I swear, Hectic

you better either shoot Mafia, or shoot me.

Cuz if we go into 3p LimLo and I have to defend myself after begging for the gun all game, I'm going to be sour.

Are these two mutually exclusive or can I get a 2 for 1 deal?

Alsop, you should've

accidentally

scumslipped if you wanted the gun super early

[Toogeloo]

Why are you so certain Pav is town?

[Toogeloo]

You should explain why it's a flawless plan before you shoot at least.

[Hectic]

You want me to towncase him? That's so much effort... but I'll see what I can do later

It's a combination of very clean interactions with flipped scum, meta, energy/effort, and tone

[Toogeloo]

Well, if you are going to hinge the whole game on, "As long as we don't shoot Pav," we're going to need to know exactly why.

There was a point in the game where some were saying I was 100% town and never should be shot, yet here we are.

I've made few missteps in this game, and been fooled by a read or two. Maybe you are a better judge than me. You should still do it because if you miss, the person taking the next shot should be at least understanding your reasoning.

[Pavowski]

Man, Hectic, I wish I felt good about the call but I really could go either way on Toog/Vulture.

Vulture feels townier to me overall but I'm willing to believe it could be a front. I don't love his recent withdrawal from the game but I also hate to make a call like this based on something like that ... RL is a thing after all. I do have issues reading him as scum given his recent reads on the scumteam. As I pointed out in 1156 I really don't see why he'd bus 2 of his scum buddies. Then again, if he's town, that would mean he nailed all 3 scum when there were what -- 8 people left alive in the game? Not impossible, but unlikely, right?

I can't point to anything nearly as concrete with Toog. As you've pointed out, the things Toog's been townread for in this game (was it you who called them "advice columns" lol) could just as easily come from scum, being more like takes on the setup than on the actual game and the players. Not that there haven't been takes on players.

My gut still leans me more towards Toog on this one, which is weird. Of the two, it feels like, if town, Toog is more likely to turn and shoot me than Vulture would be, and that would be bad.

Kinda feels like a paradox given your suggested strategy (which Toog is now expressing a willingness to hear, by the way, so +town points for that) of just having everybody shoot away from me. The person less likely to follow your strategy seems like the one who should get gunned first.

I kinda feel like all I've done here is repackage what I already posted in my spam series up there ^^^ but after noodling on it a bit, I haven't moved a lot.

I am curious what Vulture thinks of the "don't shoot Pav" idea; we haven't heard from the bird in a bit.

[Pavowski]

I’ll do Pav + Marci + Luke I guess.

Digging back on Vultures iso. That rule of 3 thing comes to mind...

It's fun but probably not extremely productive, let's place our bets though

I reckon Pavowski + Enchant + Lukewarm

Marci + Vulture + Pav

Just reading back a little. I had flagged this post when I was considering scum!Luke. I am sitting here trying to figure out what to make of it. These are like 30 posts apart.

[Pavowski]

Here is where I think T3 slipped his partner....

Players in order of readability:
Really easy: Lukewarm, marcistar
Also ez but slightly less: Pavowski, Toogeloo
I have some idea: Enchant, HockeyFan
Screw alts:

Hectic alt

, Galron, Vulture
OPENWOLF: NM

I had no idea that Art was Hectic's alt until Hectic officially replaced into the game. After he replaced in, I went and looked at Art's posting history. There is no reference that Art was Hectic there. So then I checked Hectic's posting history, and I went all the way back to the beginning of July (Art was born mid-July). There was no mention of an Art alt there. So how did T3 know that Art was Hectic's alt? An alt like that probably needs an ego post from it's main account in a private topic, especially for easier communicating.

My suspicion is Hectic made himself known in the mafia chat and T3 slipped that knowledge in the beginning of the game.

If I had the gun, Hectic would be my next shot.

My third suspect is Pavowski, which is more gut.

Toog is town. I see where vulture has proven toog to be wrong. But toog is town

TF is this. I remembered Toog townreading Luke but had forgotten this going the other way. This is, like, clumsy as hell if it's Luke trying to clear a partner. But is Luke that clumsy? I don't think so.

[Pavowski]

Weeeeelllll last time I came up against scum!Luke and tried to find his partner in Luke's iso, he took me on a wild ride and I miselim'd town into a real bad loss so I dunno if I want to trust myself on this

Luke is cackling as he reads me here I'm certain

[Pavowski]

Reviewing a bunch of Luke/vulture interactions starting around 580 against my better judgment.

[Pavowski]

Any of you guys ever get that feeling like you're talking to yourself?

No?

Just me?