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Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:16 pm
by jjh927
In post 1146, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1119, mastina wrote:Explicitly so, yes, for multiple reasons.
Share with the class?
-General setup design. Don't assume scum won't have two roles of similar nature or sometimes you will be wrong.
-A traffic analyst flipped. A percentage of scum having communication built into their actual role makes the guilties there more deniable, and makes the TA be more of an inno-hunting role.

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:18 pm
by PenguinPower
In post 1145, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1096, PenguinPower wrote:...you really want me to scum read you don't you.
If you really want to do it, I won't stand in the way of your dreams.
In post 329, Something_Smart wrote:Obviously for a setup like this you can't assume that town will completely coordinate productivity, but you can probably assume that town will make some collective effort to keep average productivity in the 75-85% range.
mmm....

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:20 pm
by mastina
In post 1097, Vivax wrote:
In post 1093, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 1090, Vivax wrote:P-edit: Always try to follow the guide of some fella called ace when vig. Kill coinflips early. Less wiggle room to push a mislim, and disencourage that type of play.
I think you don't understand how D1 went down.

How many larges how have you played?
Enough
But let's consider this: The ones who called it weird either don't reply (FG) or believe it (Fire)
While Luke goes on attack mode after not commenting, supposedly having no info whatsoever of how many extra kills scum had. At the very least, you'd have reason to assume Luke has an agenda or ulterior motive here.
Lukewarm is scum feeling boxed in, obv.

He NEEDS a mislim to go through, especially on the vig, because he knows that scum are fucked if they don’t.

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:21 pm
by PenguinPower
In post 1150, jjh927 wrote:-A traffic analyst flipped. A percentage of scum having communication built into their actual role makes the guilties there more deniable, and makes the TA be more of an inno-hunting role.
With a 70% base productivity cost you think it's an inno hunting role?

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:21 pm
by RCEnigma
In post 1058, Roden wrote:
In post 1052, Andresvmb wrote:Titus could have been bussing but you would have to think they were on top of Ircher’s case very aggressively and maybe? It’s possible the Scum decided to take alternative tracks in order to not all get lumped together, but I seriously doubt all of the Scum bailed on Ircher immediately.
Ircher's role was pretty weak, and tbh Ircher gets run up D1 almost every game I play with him regardless of his alignment. I don't think he got hard bussed by his entire team, but I don't think they had much incentive to try to save him either. Best play for scum is for them to avoid being associated with Ircher at all IMO.
Scum don’t play like this when there isn’t a red check in play.

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:22 pm
by mastina
In post 1105, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 1099, mastina wrote:
In post 1041, furtiveglance wrote:In the Titus/Vivax binary, then:

VOTE: Vivax
Titus COULD be scum, but Roden IS scum.

And Vivax is hard-town to me.

Everyone off the Ircher wagon except Roden, Fire, and Malakittens are hard-town to me. Malakittens is not locked, but still far more likely town than not.

Vivax is always town here, as are many members of the Ircher wagon.

While Titus is in the remainder which COULD be scum, it'd be a departure from her norm and thus is less likely.

Vivax v Titus as a dilemma thus has a high chance of being town-town and I therefore refuse to accept it.
IF there’s scum in there, it's Titus, but she's not the most likely to be scum.
I want you to explain why Vivax is hard Town to you. I’m not ruling it out by any means, but outside their implied claim (which is important I’ll admit), I find it hard to believe that you genuinely think they’re hard Town.
I've played with Vivax.

This is his towngame through and through.

I also believe the vig claim.

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:22 pm
by Vivax
In post 1128, Andresvmb wrote:
In post 1124, fireisredsir wrote:
In post 1123, Andresvmb wrote:Look my view of the game just got blown up. The two Town that died yesterday I was positive on, particularly Nero Cain
can you expand on this, i don't quite follow
I was beginning to trust Nero Cain pretty strongly, and unfortunately they were NK’ed (most likely), I was skeptical of the slip (and I was wrong), and the one player I most strongly suspected is probably Town via claim. I am assuming (as I think is most likely), that productivity did not drop below 50%. I don’t see the Scum shooting BBT there N1, but obviously if Vivax is full of shit, then they did. So, the few things I was trying to anchor my view of the game around are not here or are not reliable. Which means, I need to put in work.
If I read the setup correctly, scum can have up to 4 kills a night depending on productivity.
From my info, we're at 1 extra
~ if the average is lower than 75% and not lower than 50%, the mafia gets one extra kill to use that night.
so most gave 25-50% for this night I think

p-edit: Doubt it's a he, and the mood just doesn't reflect the situation
But glad you agree Luke is mafia, the leviathan kind

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:23 pm
by Roden
In post 1138, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1135, Roden wrote:
@Vivax:
I'd prefer if you shot me over Luke tonight so that Mastina can't hide behind her fake scum read on me all game.
What?

Why would Mastinas read on either of us matter for his vig kill, and in case you missed it I am her second strongest scum read, so that seems to be of little difference lol
Because I think you're town and a bigger asset for town than I am going forward. I also want to take the wind out of her sails with my flip without wasting a Day phase vote.
In post 1143, jjh927 wrote:Yeah I was hoping for some elaboration without specifically asking for elaboration as I was in fact fully aware of that post but oh well
What else did you want to know?
In post 1144, jjh927 wrote:
In post 1129, Roden wrote:
In post 1060, Andresvmb wrote:@Roden yeah maybe. But you also have to make a decision as Scum. Either you push Ircher right then and there about a potential slip that Ircher may be able to get away from (I didn’t find the “slip” killer, the freezing is what did Ircher in), or you hold off, and you position yourself around the flip that started seeming more and more inevitable as the day went on. Look at Vivax’s play and tell me that’s not what you see.

Look Vivax could have just been wrong and Town that’s always possible. But they were definitely the one player I thought was the Scummiest yesterday. It’s hard for me to look away right now.
I think any scum who joined the Ircher wagon would do so nonchalantly, the slip would've panicked the scum team and they wouldn't be sure whether or not Ircher could get away with it in the moment. The pile up happened so quickly that scum would most likely feel too self-conscious to make a big deal out of it or make a hard push, in fear of coming off as informed.

If I had to guess, I'd say two scum on wagon, one scum off.
Interesting line of thought.

What is your take on Klick right now
They certainly exist in this game, but I don't feel particularly strong about them one way or the other. Nothing really sticks out as scummy, there were a couple posts I liked though. I can run through their ISO really quick to find them.

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:24 pm
by mastina
In post 1121, Vivax wrote:
In post 1120, mastina wrote:
In post 1081, Vivax wrote:
In post 1080, fireisredsir wrote:earlier i thought vivax could be scum TMIing that the BBT kill was a vig kill, since he didnt seem to understand that me/furtive were talking from the perspective of thinking "this is a weird kill for mafia to make"

but in addition to thinking his play just feels like his towngame, i think its more likely that he is actually just a vig TMIing that BBT kill was a vig kill
Hard disagree, to me both Peta and Nero were weird kills. Peta makes sense off the info Lukewarm gave, and Nero...idk, maybe him hinting he had some kind of scavenger role?
But scum seeing BBT play like that could assume he was hiding a good PR, and so he did. So why should it be weird, unless you knew the kills?

Kinda surprised Uncrowned isn't dead tbh, gave you quite a bit of fire
(Fire is probably scum #2, with Roden.)
I can't spot anything scummy about Roden, it's a placid tone
I can.

Aside from play, the claim is a scumclaim.

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:24 pm
by Ydrasse
i have no clue wat happening this game

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:25 pm
by RCEnigma
Off the top of my head -

Titus, Furtive, Ausuka, uncrowned, Klick, andres

Are the slots I wouldn’t entertain a push on today.

The rest are kind of free game but I have a shortlist of

Vivax, fire, Luke, roden.

But I’ve read nothing over night phase and hardly anything of day start.

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:26 pm
by RCEnigma
Oh I forgot Ydrasse existed, into the shortlist with her.

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:26 pm
by Ydrasse
In post 1161, RCEnigma wrote:Oh I forgot Ydrasse existed, into the shortlist with her.
Y

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:27 pm
by Roden
In post 1150, jjh927 wrote:
In post 1146, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1119, mastina wrote:Explicitly so, yes, for multiple reasons.
Share with the class?
-General setup design. Don't assume scum won't have two roles of similar nature or sometimes you will be wrong.
-A traffic analyst flipped. A percentage of scum having communication built into their actual role makes the guilties there more deniable, and makes the TA be more of an inno-hunting role.
Where's the scum power if two of them have useless roles?

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:27 pm
by jjh927
PenguinPower wrote:
In post 1150, jjh927 wrote:-A traffic analyst flipped. A percentage of scum having communication built into their actual role makes the guilties there more deniable, and makes the TA be more of an inno-hunting role.
With a 70% base productivity cost you think it's an inno hunting role?
Yes? Of 4 flips and 1 claim we have 1 scum with a role that would explain the guilty, 1 town which would be a false guiilty that could also create additonal false guilties, and a claim of unknown alignment that would also be a guilty

Statistically speaking, on a practical level that role is absolutely inno hunting

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:29 pm
by Something_Smart
In post 1150, jjh927 wrote:-General setup design. Don't assume scum won't have two roles of similar nature or sometimes you will be wrong.
-A traffic analyst flipped. A percentage of scum having communication built into their actual role makes the guilties there more deniable, and makes the TA be more of an inno-hunting role.
TA's fair. For the first point, I know it's not impossible, but I have to imagine that they are less likely than random to both be scum.

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:31 pm
by jjh927
Roden wrote:
In post 1150, jjh927 wrote:
In post 1146, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1119, mastina wrote:Explicitly so, yes, for multiple reasons.
Share with the class?
-General setup design. Don't assume scum won't have two roles of similar nature or sometimes you will be wrong.
-A traffic analyst flipped. A percentage of scum having communication built into their actual role makes the guilties there more deniable, and makes the TA be more of an inno-hunting role.
Where's the scum power if two of them have useless roles?
In post 2, Datisi wrote:~ if the average is lower than 75% and not lower than 50%, the mafia gets one extra kill to use that night.
~ if the average is lower than 50% and not lower than 25%, the mafia gets two extra kills to use that night.
~ if the average is lower than 25%, the mafia gets three extra kills to use that night.

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:31 pm
by Something_Smart
I think it would be really funny if peta banked 70%, drawing the average under 75%, and scum used their second kill that they otherwise wouldn't have used on him.

Presumably the role was not meant to fire every night.

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:31 pm
by PenguinPower
mmph - missed bbt was jk + neighborizer.

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:32 pm
by Andresvmb
Okay, if Roden is Town, I would say… {Titus, RCEnigma, Uncrowned} for Scum maybe?

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:32 pm
by Something_Smart
Really, the scum power is just their base kill. The extra kills serve to limit town power.

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:33 pm
by PenguinPower
In post 1170, Something_Smart wrote:
Really, the scum power is just their base kill. The extra kills serve to limit town power.
stahp

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:33 pm
by Andresvmb
I’m taking an early guess on the Team just to see how ridiculous it looks after the game.

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:34 pm
by jjh927
As a PSA, NOBODY's role is meant to fire every night.

Posted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:34 pm
by PenguinPower
like it's grating on me now - base psychology is going to have town using their power because people at heart are not logical.