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Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 10:58 am
by fferyllt
It's her chance to redeem some meta as far as I'm concerned. She kinda blew it when she decided not to go after me when she thought I was scum.

DCLXVI [3/5] - Human Destroyer, Majiffy, buldermar
Mac [2/5] - Minimal, orcinus_theoriginal
buldermar [1/5] - DCLXVI

Abstained (Not Voting): pirate mollie, Mac, fferyllt

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 10:59 am
by Majiffy
VOTE: Buldermar

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:00 am
by Majiffy
In post 1171, buldermar wrote:
In post 1167, Majiffy wrote:
In post 1135, buldermar wrote:
In post 1132, Majiffy wrote:
In post 1128, buldermar wrote: Scum can just kill her non-strongest town-read if they know that she's tracking and watching her strongest town-read.
... Which would clear her strongest town-read... :facepalm:
How would it clear her strongest town-read if the kill is performed by a different scum?
How about you read my fucking posts you dolt?
I've read all of them, so I must have misunderstood something and I'm too lazy to figure out what. Feel free to tell me if you so desire.
In post 1116, Majiffy wrote:1) Not the recent ones, no. What is this supposed to refute? That it would be easy for scum to predict?

Let's break this down; you can simultaneously track and watch one player. If your strongest town read is town, then either you will track them not going anywhere, or they will be killed by scum and you'll catch scum.
The only way tracking/watching your strongest town read could fail is if said town read is scum, and they don't perform a night kill.

In which case... great town read you got there.

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:05 am
by buldermar
In post 1176, Majiffy wrote:VOTE: Buldermar
Were you not already voting me?

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:08 am
by buldermar
In post 1177, Majiffy wrote:
In post 1171, buldermar wrote:
In post 1167, Majiffy wrote:
In post 1135, buldermar wrote:
In post 1132, Majiffy wrote:
In post 1128, buldermar wrote: Scum can just kill her non-strongest town-read if they know that she's tracking and watching her strongest town-read.
... Which would clear her strongest town-read... :facepalm:
How would it clear her strongest town-read if the kill is performed by a different scum?
How about you read my fucking posts you dolt?
I've read all of them, so I must have misunderstood something and I'm too lazy to figure out what. Feel free to tell me if you so desire.
In post 1116, Majiffy wrote:1) Not the recent ones, no. What is this supposed to refute? That it would be easy for scum to predict?

Let's break this down; you can simultaneously track and watch one player. If your strongest town read is town, then either you will track them not going anywhere, or they will be killed by scum and you'll catch scum.
The only way tracking/watching your strongest town read could fail is if said town read is scum, and they don't perform a night kill.

In which case... great town read you got there.
Alright, so you did point out the flaw in your plan. How the fuck is that flaw not significant to you? If ff were going with your plan, that exact thing would happen every single time that both of a) the strongest town read being scum and b) there being more than one scum.

If the town read is so strong that there isn't really a good chance of it being scum, that just negates the whole point of simultaneously tracking and watching that player.

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:09 am
by pirate mollie
In post 1168, fferyllt wrote:You'll win at the expense of town, instead of winning a night later.

I'm not going to vote DCL before the replacement happens. That's where I'm leaning atm.

You can kill me whether I am protected or not.
But, you
could
target someone you are sure is town tonight and confirm them
.
That
would be protown.
then why are you not looking for dcl's partner? nah, taking us out of the game at this point does not hurt town, it helps it. especially since you are lying. I am not sure about what exactly but I know you are.

wrt the bold: :/ that would be going against my wc and you know it. I already said that going against your wc is against site rules, in fact I think we have discussed how it is a site rule in gchat.

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:15 am
by buldermar
In post 1180, pirate mollie wrote:
In post 1168, fferyllt wrote:You'll win at the expense of town, instead of winning a night later.

I'm not going to vote DCL before the replacement happens. That's where I'm leaning atm.

You can kill me whether I am protected or not.
But, you
could
target someone you are sure is town tonight and confirm them
.
That
would be protown.
then why are you not looking for dcl's partner? nah, taking us out of the game at this point does not hurt town, it helps it. especially since you are lying. I am not sure about what exactly but I know you are.

wrt the bold: :/ that would be going against my wc and you know it. I already said that going against your wc is against site rules, in fact I think we have discussed how it is a site rule in gchat.
If that rule is to be followed (which it in many, many cases isn't, and I am yet to see a mod care about it in any case but actual cheating - and even then, some mods don't take action), you don't have any choice but to backstab ff this night, and then this whole conversation is pointless.

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:26 am
by pirate mollie
In post 1170, buldermar wrote:The part about the sig bets is entirely correct.

The only thing that town can really be concerned about is her being scum, and that's really not possible because she has proven to be in position of information that she couldn't be in position of had she been scum by correcting you. For instance, you misunderstood a part of your role PM IIRC and she pointed that out.

Once it's concluded that she can only be an assassin, the difference between you killing her and both of you being removed from the game, and her killing you and both of you being removed from the game, is really negligible. In fact, the worst case scenario from the town perspective would be if you decide now to kill her because that leaves 0% chance of her investigating scum. If you don't kill her, she may be the assassin that picked the backstab and kill you (which sucks for you but makes no difference for town). She also may be the assassin that picked watcher/tracker, which may be unlikely but that favors town.

Conclusion: If one of you kills the other, it doesn't matter to town who kills who. The only chance that one of you doesn't kill the other is if you don't backstab her. Thus, you not backstabbing her will always favor town - even if she ends up backstabbing you 99% of the time.

From the perspective of your own win condition (and I really shouldn't be saying this, but I'm doing it out of respect for you), you should just kill her tonight and not allow town for the possibility of an investigation, because that way you're guaranteed to win (disregarding what would happen if both of you tries to kill the other).

I hope this makes sense.
it does and that is where I am at. I don't town should waste a protection on her. if she was handing out reads and rad as town then yeah, I might consider it but she is lying about something - I am telling you I have seen her indie games and
this is not it
. so I die if she is scum <------ that is a protown move in which if she isn't an assassin, you will have confirmed scum to lynch. notice how she did not think of this but is still trying to maintain her survivability. indie protown raven would not be scrambling around like this trying to fight for her survival. and not doing dick to help town.

I think the town night protection needs to go to somebody who is actually town. especially if it is a 1 shot or something. leave the indies be, to do their own thing.

yeah, she does have the exact info as my role pm. I have not been a scum role cop before and I am not sure of what info one would receive.

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:35 am
by pirate mollie
In post 1175, fferyllt wrote:It's her chance to redeem some meta as far as I'm concerned. She kinda blew it when she decided not to go after me when she thought I was scum.
lol, lookit dis. there is no "indie cred" to redeem. you can push that angle all you want, it would work on tr cos you have brainwashed everyone about how to play as indie, the only requirement is to meet your wc. that's it. since I know that you are either scum or an assassin and if you are lying then we can backstab each other and be removed from the game. you are dangling the watcher/tracker like a tasty treat out to town <---- I don't believe you have a tasty treat to offer since you are not offering up anything else. you have hedged, hedged and hedged and you are working the game to your own benefit. anyone without blinders on should be able to see this.

if your claim was true you would be working this game as if you were going to die tonight and you aren't. this is the same milquetoast performance as your scum game and don't hand me that crap that you are busy IRL cos the only times you have said that has been when you are scum.

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:41 am
by Majiffy
In post 1178, buldermar wrote:
In post 1176, Majiffy wrote:VOTE: Buldermar
Were you not already voting me?
No I was voting DCL, wanted to see a VC before I switched.

re: Town Read - Ffery isn't a weak player by any stretch of the imagination. Ergo her
strongest
town read would likely be a townie.
Which brings us to;
If the town read is so strong that there isn't really a good chance of it being scum, that just negates the whole point of simultaneously tracking and watching that player.
Which is complete bullshit, argued already
in the same post
I bolded that bit for you.

Here, let me go fetch that for you.
If your strongest town read is town, then either you will track them not going anywhere, or they will be killed by scum and you'll catch scum.
Clearing a townie or catching scum is very far from being useless.

Seriously how anyone reads you as town is beyond me.

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:43 am
by buldermar
In post 1182, pirate mollie wrote:
In post 1170, buldermar wrote:The part about the sig bets is entirely correct.

The only thing that town can really be concerned about is her being scum, and that's really not possible because she has proven to be in position of information that she couldn't be in position of had she been scum by correcting you. For instance, you misunderstood a part of your role PM IIRC and she pointed that out.

Once it's concluded that she can only be an assassin, the difference between you killing her and both of you being removed from the game, and her killing you and both of you being removed from the game, is really negligible. In fact, the worst case scenario from the town perspective would be if you decide now to kill her because that leaves 0% chance of her investigating scum. If you don't kill her, she may be the assassin that picked the backstab and kill you (which sucks for you but makes no difference for town). She also may be the assassin that picked watcher/tracker, which may be unlikely but that favors town.

Conclusion: If one of you kills the other, it doesn't matter to town who kills who. The only chance that one of you doesn't kill the other is if you don't backstab her. Thus, you not backstabbing her will always favor town - even if she ends up backstabbing you 99% of the time.

From the perspective of your own win condition (and I really shouldn't be saying this, but I'm doing it out of respect for you), you should just kill her tonight and not allow town for the possibility of an investigation, because that way you're guaranteed to win (disregarding what would happen if both of you tries to kill the other).

I hope this makes sense.
it does and that is where I am at. I don't town should waste a protection on her. if she was handing out reads and rad as town then yeah, I might consider it but she is lying about something - I am telling you I have seen her indie games and
this is not it
. so I die if she is scum <------ that is a protown move in which if she isn't an assassin, you will have confirmed scum to lynch. notice how she did not think of this but is still trying to maintain her survivability. indie protown raven would not be scrambling around like this trying to fight for her survival. and not doing dick to help town.

I think the town night protection needs to go to somebody who is actually town. especially if it is a 1 shot or something. leave the indies be, to do their own thing.

yeah, she does have the exact info as my role pm. I have not been a scum role cop before and I am not sure of what info one would receive.
I don't think town should waste a protection on her either, but I don't think that was ever part of any plan?

I don't think she would receive this info as a day scum role cop. Furthermore, I don't think that role is used often. If she actually is scum, she most likely got the information in her own role PM as scum. But I think that's quite unlikely.

I don't really think it's a huge deal whether you backstab her tonight or not. There are both possible good things for town and bad things for town that could happen from it, and I think they to some extent even out.

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:45 am
by buldermar
In post 1184, Majiffy wrote:No I was voting DCL, wanted to see a VC before I switched.

re: Town Read - Ffery isn't a weak player by any stretch of the imagination. Ergo her strongest town read would likely be a townie.
Which brings us to;
I agree with this, which is also why I'm not considering an orc lynch for the time being.

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:55 am
by buldermar
In post 1184, Majiffy wrote: Which brings us to;
If the town read is so strong that there isn't really a good chance of it being scum, that just negates the whole point of simultaneously tracking and watching that player.
Which is complete bullshit, argued already
in the same post
I bolded that bit for you.

Here, let me go fetch that for you.
If your strongest town read is town, then either you will track them not going anywhere, or they will be killed by scum and you'll catch scum.
Clearing a townie or catching scum is very far from being useless.

Seriously how anyone reads you as town is beyond me.
It's not complete bullshit. It's an equilibrium in every case where the person isn't confirmed town or scum already, which is the case we're dealing with here. In other words, the exact odds of the person being town or scum prior to applying the plan does not affect the utility of the plan. I'm not arguing that clearing a townie or catching scum is useless, and I think you're competent enough to understand that I wouldn't be arguing this as scum in the first place. The last many times you've been town and misread me as scum, you've just ignored my posts, been exceptionally confirmation biased, and tunneled me. See our most recent TR game for the latest example. I trust that you're intelligent enough to understand the point I'm making if you actually take your time reading my post, but you're so absorbed in your conviction that I'm scum (when you're actually town) that you're misinterpreting everything I say. Ofc, there still is a high chance of you being scum, but there isn't really a downside to giving you the benefit of the doubt.

I'll explain how it's an equilibrium, and what this means, if you'd like me to, but I'm not going to waste my time needlessly, so please don't ask for it if you're not actually going to read it anyway.

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:57 am
by buldermar
mollie, the one thing I'm mostly wondering about is why ff wouldn't trust my read on Majiffy. I also think it should be evident by now to her why I think Majiffy is scum, and yet she hasn't really pointed out mistakes in my reasoning. I keep on telling myself that this is just something I'm imagining and that she's exactly what she claims to be, though.

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 11:59 am
by Majiffy
It's an equilibrium in every case where the person isn't confirmed town or scum already, which is the case we're dealing with here. In other words, the exact odds of the person being town or scum prior to applying the plan does not affect the utility of the plan.
The fuck is this and how does it have any merit in the argument whatsoever.

It's a pretty simple concept, buldermar. Cleared townies are good. Dead scum are good. The plan has a high percentage of getting us one of those two options.

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 12:18 pm
by pirate mollie
In post 1188, buldermar wrote:mollie, the one thing I'm mostly wondering about is why ff wouldn't trust my read on Majiffy. I also think it should be evident by now to her why I think Majiffy is scum, and yet she hasn't really pointed out mistakes in my reasoning. I keep on telling myself that this is just something I'm imagining and that she's exactly what she claims to be, though.
well tbh, you nailed one of her scumtells early on and I did a cheer.

I see why you have majiffy as scum. like I said earlier, I thought he was a potential partner for feryscum or the possible assassin. but I cannot tell you why I thought that. and because I was spinning on a feryscum axis I was wondering if that was because of it, although now I am trying to do a hard reset.

fwiw, I think you are town. I think mac is too and orc. minimal's quick-to-point-out about my inheritance game meta makes her look better cos she did it after I outed as indie and felt genuine.

there is no reason to take a backseat in this game if she were playing for town. I am just trying to make it clear for town that if I am dead and there is not a second player taken out of the game then she is confirmed scum and that I think town ought to try to protect town instead of involve themselves with the indies.

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 12:18 pm
by fferyllt
In post 1183, pirate mollie wrote:
In post 1175, fferyllt wrote:It's her chance to redeem some meta as far as I'm concerned. She kinda blew it when she decided not to go after me when she thought I was scum.
lol, lookit dis. there is no "indie cred" to redeem. you can push that angle all you want, it would work on tr cos you have brainwashed everyone about how to play as indie, the only requirement is to meet your wc. that's it. since I know that you are either scum or an assassin and if you are lying then we can backstab each other and be removed from the game. you are dangling the watcher/tracker like a tasty treat out to town <---- I don't believe you have a tasty treat to offer since you are not offering up anything else. you have hedged, hedged and hedged and you are working the game to your own benefit. anyone without blinders on should be able to see this.

if your claim was true you would be working this game as if you were going to die tonight and you aren't. this is the same milquetoast performance as your scum game and don't hand me that crap that you are busy IRL cos the only times you have said that has been when you are scum.
I am going to die in what? Not tonight. days from today. I don't have to burn myself out.

You do what you want. I'm planning to use my track/watch, and I'm spending a fair bit of time thinking on that as well as day 1 lynch. I'm not wracking my brains on partners yet becauce UNTIL WHAT? AN HOUR AGO? I expected to still be around on day 2.

You know that I have the same role PM you had. You know that you were wrong about the track/watch not being a dual action. Or you should.

You can rationalize to yourself that I am scum, not your target, but it's bullshit. You wouldn't dare target me tonight if you thought I was scum because you would die.

If you have something useful to say about today's lynch or about tonight's actions, I'll respond. Otherwise we're done.

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 12:19 pm
by orcinus_theoriginal
In post 1159, buldermar wrote:
In post 1142, orcinus_theoriginal wrote:I think Buldermar is a giant piece of scum and I hate his reaction to basically everything. He refuses to refute my points concerning him and is somehow fucking townread for that? No sense at all.
Make one list of your points with no ad hominem bullshit and no straw men, and I'll refute every single one of them.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 12:21 pm
by orcinus_theoriginal
In post 1164, Human Destroyer wrote:Before I do orc...why don't you tell me how replacing out for activity reasons is town-motivated and not null.
Town makes conscious effort to scumhunt, scum like spam so they can just fade away in the noise.

Now stop stalling

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 12:26 pm
by orcinus_theoriginal
[quote="In post 368, buldermar"
In post 366, orcinus_theoriginal wrote:I'm about to leave.
I did say that I pretended to be scum because I like to do stupid shit, which is accurate. I also dislike RVS, so I like to do stuff to skip that. You can check my previous games to confirm that if required. I think ff has read enough to confirm it as well.
Yes, because you did an excellent job of helping town skip RVS (you did squat to skip RVS, RVS ended with the minimal wagon and my "srspost" (as fery put it)).
I do think scum-ff would quick-read orc as town because of a different game. I think that because town-ff previously quick-read orc as town, scum-ff would feel obligated to do the same to eliminate dissimilarities in play.
What happened to your ongoing game thing? And once again, you fail to prove how this quickread on me is more scum than town. As far as I see it, she would do it regardless of alignment. But you called it alignment-null, which doesn't make sense to me. You've shown me why she might do X as scum--but not why doing X makes her scum, which is what you said.
Orc says my post 270 doesn't make sense, which I disagree with. It's not "town meta" when it's based on one game, and it's in this particular context that I find it scummy. If she did the same the next game the three of us are in, I may look at it entirely different.
Fery's townread me off the bat in every single game we've been in so far. So it is town meta. And once again, you've explained scum motivation, but not why it makes her scum. THIS is bias.
What he calls a fabricated reason to dodge an answer in 267 is in my opinion quite accurate. I don't think I could write it any more accurate if I spend another 5 minutes on that post alone.
See this is very very interesting. Because we established that your reason was fabricated in this post below
In post 273, buldermar wrote:
In post 271, orcinus_theoriginal wrote:
In post 267, buldermar wrote:
In post 259, orcinus_theoriginal wrote:
In post 26, buldermar wrote: I'm scum, I insist.
Which part of my questions have incorrect assumptions?
The part where you incorrectly assume that I'd be more likely to insist on being scum as scum than as town.
I never did.

My questions again:
1) Why did you act scummy?
2) What did you learn alignment-wise from acting scummy?
3) Why did you purposely try to goad fery in page 2?

I made no such assumption. I questioned you on your motives on insisting on being scum--"acting scummy".

Now answer.
To do stupid shit because I love doing stupid shit. I could tell you a story about how I wanted to see how people reacted etc., but really I just love doing stupid shit.
(267 is in the nested quote)
Orc doesn't believe that anyone could legitimately read DCL's Majiffy vote as serious, but at least three people (myself included) interpreted his Majiffy vote as just that. In other words, Orc to my understanding things that at least three people are currently lying about how they interpret DCL's vote on Majiffy. (You can correct me if I'm wrong on this one, Mac)
Ad populum, and I don't think anyone else found DCL's vote on Majiffy to be serious. HD accepted it was a RVS wagon. I don't like how you throw "three people" out there without actually giving names.

Not talking about DCL.
I can't really say anything to him thinking that my reaction does not come from a town perspective for obvious reasons. It is correct that I have been trying to avoid conversation with Orc because I do not feel he is being openminded about the points I'm making, and I do think he's being exceptionally biased. He recently even claimed that he'd not be moving his vote for the remainder of this day. I suspected that this has been the case for quite some pages, so there really isn't any motivation for me to conversate with him other than if other players thing it's conducive.
Blatant lie. I said that I wouldn't be moving my vote after my frustration with your refusal to talk to me. And once again, proof of my bias would be nice.
He insists that his early-game reads aren't consolidated at all, but I think his read on me has been quite consolidated for some time. I guess you can think what you want about me tossing his opinion aside and not answering his questions because of bias, but that's the main reason.
My read on you has been quite consolidated since your refusal to talk to me and defend yourself.
I don't know what ad populum means, but if this part is important to you I will read about it on wiki and answer his accusation of my posts being ad populum.
Go look it up.

Dodgelist:
345
339
328
321
I responded to Mac, not to you, so I'm going to once again disregard this unless Mac wants me to respond to any of it.[/quote

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 12:30 pm
by fferyllt
In post 1193, orcinus_theoriginal wrote:
In post 1164, Human Destroyer wrote:Before I do orc...why don't you tell me how replacing out for activity reasons is town-motivated and not null.
Town makes conscious effort to scumhunt, scum like spam so they can just fade away in the noise.

Now stop stalling
And DCL's most involved effort the entire game so far was in trying to figure out the assassin roles, not to scum hunt.

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 12:35 pm
by buldermar
In post 1189, Majiffy wrote:
It's an equilibrium in every case where the person isn't confirmed town or scum already, which is the case we're dealing with here. In other words, the exact odds of the person being town or scum prior to applying the plan does not affect the utility of the plan.
The fuck is this and how does it have any merit in the argument whatsoever.

It's a pretty simple concept, buldermar. Cleared townies are good. Dead scum are good. The plan has a high percentage of getting us one of those two options.
You're not reading at all. I refuse to believe you actually think I'm this dense, but whatever.

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 12:37 pm
by buldermar
In post 1190, pirate mollie wrote:
In post 1188, buldermar wrote:mollie, the one thing I'm mostly wondering about is why ff wouldn't trust my read on Majiffy. I also think it should be evident by now to her why I think Majiffy is scum, and yet she hasn't really pointed out mistakes in my reasoning. I keep on telling myself that this is just something I'm imagining and that she's exactly what she claims to be, though.
well tbh, you nailed one of her scumtells early on and I did a cheer.

I see why you have majiffy as scum. like I said earlier, I thought he was a potential partner for feryscum or the possible assassin. but I cannot tell you why I thought that. and because I was spinning on a feryscum axis I was wondering if that was because of it, although now I am trying to do a hard reset.

fwiw, I think you are town. I think mac is too and orc. minimal's quick-to-point-out about my inheritance game meta makes her look better cos she did it after I outed as indie and felt genuine.

there is no reason to take a backseat in this game if she were playing for town. I am just trying to make it clear for town that if I am dead and there is not a second player taken out of the game then she is confirmed scum and that I think town ought to try to protect town instead of involve themselves with the indies.
I agree with your reads (although I'm less certain about mac than orc), and that ff isn't being as involved as I would expect of her. I also agree that a potential protective role should pick a non-assassin for obvious reasons.

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 12:39 pm
by pirate mollie
In post 1191, fferyllt wrote:I am going to die in what? Not tonight. days from today. I don't have to burn myself out.

You do what you want. I'm planning to use my track/watch, and I'm spending a fair bit of time thinking on that as well as day 1 lynch. I'm not wracking my brains on partners yet becauce UNTIL WHAT? AN HOUR AGO? I expected to still be around on day 2.

You know that I have the same role PM you had. You know that you were wrong about the track/watch not being a dual action. Or you should.

You can rationalize to yourself that I am scum, not your target, but it's bullshit. You wouldn't dare target me tonight if you thought I was scum because you would die.

If you have something useful to say about today's lynch or about tonight's actions, I'll respond. Otherwise we're done.
^ indie friendly fery. you are playing your own game which is what you have been accusing me of doing all along which is something you do as scum or when you have your own agenda. you are lying about something, I know it.

so who are your top scum reads?

Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2013 12:42 pm
by fferyllt
In post 1188, buldermar wrote:mollie, the one thing I'm mostly wondering about is why ff wouldn't trust my read on Majiffy. I also think it should be evident by now to her why I think Majiffy is scum, and yet she hasn't really pointed out mistakes in my reasoning. I keep on telling myself that this is just something I'm imagining and that she's exactly what she claims to be, though.
What is her read on Majiffy? I kept asking her until I finally gave up getting anything useful from her reads.

I posted a mini-case on him yesterday. I'll check to see if you responded to it.

My town reads have gone in two totally different directions in this game, and that has pretty much torched any chance at working through to a consensus with you atm.