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Post Post #1175 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2007 6:42 pm

Post by Thok »

Long post about LML and the EmpTyger wagon and day 1. I'm starting by putting some facts together, to summarize stuff.

The first reference LML makes to EmpTyger is in post 282, when he claims that EmpTyger is among 1 of 3 people he feels has slipped (also includes MM and Skruffs). He also claims to find PJ/Glork to be giving off incredible scum vibes. Note: post where EmpTyger points out comments about MM and EmpTyger to go with this weren't posted in the thread. More on this later in the analysis.

Lots of ignoring of EmpTyger by LML. Votes PJ (same as EmpTyger did), attacks Glork.

EmpTyger posts in 323, only comment to LML is asking about missing post mentioned above about EmpTyger's slip.

LML in 333 makes comment about how he thought his missing post had been posted. Switches from PJ to EmpTyger (first vote on what will be the first EmpTyger wagon) while claiming both are scum together.

MM votes EmpTyger in 348 (2nd vote of first EmpTyger wagon-this is it's highest point; EmpTyger is now tied with PJ as the vote leader, with 2/5 votes).

LML switches to Glork in post 353. This confuses PJ. LML announces a big voting plan, leading to a PJ FOS.

LML then switches to MM is post 366, after announcing he would be targetting somebody he hadn't mentioned being suspicious of in the thread. Suggests EmpTyger could still be scum.

EmpTyger reappears in 373, keeps vote on PJ, claims LML is acting erratic.

LML's 382 doesn't mention 373, focuses on fighting PJ, suggests PJ-EmpTyger could be scum distancing.

LML's 390 is an FOS of me (for what is a really weak reason).

MM mentions liking his EmpTyger voting in 394, among other things.

AE FOS's EmpTyger in 395 for PJ-EmpTyger.

LML's 399 is about lurkers.

AE continues some discussion of PJ-EmpTygerish stuff.

LML's 404 says, I'll keep on eye on PJ and pushes the MM wagon.

A Skruffs wagon starts (SV's never moved vote, AE, Erg0) Worth noting everybody involved in this is now known to be protown.

LML's 414 suggests an MM/Skruffs combo.

VitR votes EmpTyger in 427 for being too focused and stuff AE said. (VitR first mentions this back in 303). I consider this the start of the second EmpTyger wagon.

EmpTyger starts ranting in 429. Ignores VitR's vote, talks some stuff about AE's arguements, makes a big arguement about the above mentioned missing post of LML's where he feels EmpTyger and MM slipped and attacks LML voting pattern. Unvotes PJ, Votes LML.

Post 430, LML refutes EmpTyger's comments, and vote LML (third LML vote with 5 to lynch-note this is a tie with previously mentioned Skruffs wagon above).

Post 432, LML has more fight with EmpTyger. Insults fly!

Post 437-LML attacks Skruffs, suggest him and LML are linked.

Post 439-More LML-Skruffs discussion

Post 442-Suggests EmpTyger-Skruffs-MM

Post 451-EmpTyger defends himself against various accusations.

Post 452 LML counters EmpTyger

Post 457 VitR Mentions tunnel vision

More EmpTyger/LML/VitR discussion. Also Glork votes MM (which is with my previously existing vote, enough to start an MM wagon)

Post 478-AE unvotes Skruffs
Post 481-SV appears and unvote Skruffs

Post 485-EmpTyger meltdown! Claims Skruffs is cop with innocent on him.

Various people confirm vote EmpTyger, SV hammers. More craziness insues.
-----------------------

OK, comments about this.

First it's worth noting that LML's votes aren't that impressive. His first vote on EmpTyger was when EmpTyger wasn't at risk, and was promptly unvoted when somebody joined him. The second vote was a semiOMGUS vote (with another rival wagon to match the EmpTyger wagon-also see below). The first vote definately could be seen as bussing, while the second vote could be an attempt to play along with EmpTyger's vote to show mutual bussing. (Note, this was the first time in forever EmpTyger had stopped voting PJ).

Second, there's a general trend where LML tends link various people to EmpTyger, while not really trying to pair other groups of people together as much. (There was a mention of feeling PJ and Skruffs had the same alignment). Trying to link people with EmpTygerScum, or given himself an excuse to jump off the EmpTyger wagon?

Third, EmpTyger doesn't really focus on LML until the second EmpTyger wagon begins. LML votes him, but also leaves the option open to switch over to the rival Skruffs wagon. It's also notable that nobody else alive other than LML is for the rival Skruffs wagon at that time. (I actively defended Skruffs [although in fairness I also attacked him in 434 for delibarately choosing to ignore AE's comments], VitR agreed with my defense, PJ claimed he felt Skruffs was town. And Glork, when given the choice between Skruffs and EmpTyger, chose to go with a third option.)

Fourth, EmpTyger's meltdown occurs precisely when the Skruffs wagon disappears. Which suggests he was expecting Skruffs to be the lynch and that he expect somebody to move to Skruffs. But as I pointed out, LML was the person who was most capable of making that switch given what had been said.

Five, the LML-EmpTyger discussion had a lot of insults. A whole lot of insults. (Lots of William Blake references, for example). Very few other interactions had any insults. This feels like EmpTyger and LML are overplaying the animosity for each other. I consider this a weakish point.
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Post Post #1176 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2007 6:49 pm

Post by Thok »

Thing I realized I missed: given the deadline rules, until the Skruffs wagon disappeared, Skruffs was going to be lynched at deadline over EmpTyger. Which probably weakens my third point above. (Although still, scum getting a 4th vote on Skruffs couldn't hurt in that case.)
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Post Post #1177 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2007 7:54 pm

Post by VitaminR »

Hmm. That actually makes me feel a whole lot better about Thok.
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Post Post #1178 (ISO) » Sun Aug 05, 2007 9:23 pm

Post by Mr Stoofer »

V
o
t
e
C
o
u
n
t


LoudmouthLee: 1 (Glork)
Thok: 1 (LML)

Not voting: VitaminR, PookyTheMagicalBear, Thok

With 5 alive it will take just
3
votes to lynch!


Deadline:
9am BST, Wednesday 8th August
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Post Post #1179 (ISO) » Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:00 am

Post by Thok »

I have the deadline occuring at around 35 hours from now (it's possible that my math is slightly off). I'll be putting my vote back on LML shortly if nothing drastic happens.

VitR-if you had to vote now, who would you vote for?
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Post Post #1180 (ISO) » Mon Aug 06, 2007 12:01 pm

Post by VitaminR »

Glork, I think.

I don't like how silent he has been on LML today, while going from pushing for his lynch to seeming somewhat non-committal to putting a crucial vote on him. I just get the feeling he's riding your attack on LML. He has been pushing LML hard at certain points in this game. I find it strange that he chooses now to stay in the background. It feels like he's trying not to leave his fingerprints on the wagon.

I'm also not too fond of these transitions (also keep in mind that these are the only comments he has made about me since the end of Day 3):
Glork wrote:Also, VitR is also a midway. Thok is slightly below VitR on my suspicion list because at this point, I *do* think the setup is mountainous, which does make ThokTown somewhat more probable in my eyes. But like I said, I just haven't looked at VitR very hard at this point. I almost certainly won't get the opportunity to do so before this day ends, but if I'm alive tomorrow, I'll run a full analysis on VitR.
Glork wrote:Glork is increasingly convinced that A) The game is Mountainous; B) Thok is town; and C) one of VitR/LmL needs to die.
Glork wrote: I currently have a lot of conflicting thoughts running through my head. Pretty much everyone has done something that I just really don't like, at one point or another, but VitR/Thok/PJ have also done things that I had marked as distinctly protown.
Glork wrote:When it *really* boils down to it, I still don't think that either Thok or Pooky are scum, and I don't see you being lynched today.
There are also some things that still bother me about his play earlier in this game, but this is mainly what has caused me to change my perspective.
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Post Post #1181 (ISO) » Mon Aug 06, 2007 12:13 pm

Post by Glork »

*shrug*

I don't really understand why it bothers you. I had SV/LmL as my top suspects, with VitR/Thok as my midways. Come this morning, with SV dying as town, Thok slid down on my list, and you/LmL are now my top two (with LmL as #1, evidently).

Thok has re-hashed pretty much everything that I said to start the other day. Do I need to repeat myself? What else would you have me say about LmL?

I have had a lot of conflicting thoughts -- especially with Pooky's behavior towards hte middle of this day -- but when it comes down to it, LmL is still at the top of my list. I have also previously explained the things that made me think PJ/Thok/VitR were protown.

You, VitR, are *not* going to be lynched today, and LmL is my #1 suspect, so I'm voting for him.





Now... why aren't you fond of said transitions?
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Post Post #1182 (ISO) » Mon Aug 06, 2007 12:20 pm

Post by VitaminR »

Mainly because you steered away from giving a definitive opinion on me at the end of Day 3, because you hadn't looked at me very hard yet. You haven't provided that analysis, yet you do seem to be content calling for my death. I would like you to go back, read my posts and back up your positions.

I don't think you need to repeat yourself, but I'm missing the vehemence that you displayed earlier in the game in going after LML. Instead of calling him out every chance you get, I get the feeling you're just adding jabs as Thok attacks him.
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Post Post #1183 (ISO) » Mon Aug 06, 2007 1:27 pm

Post by Glork »

Go back and look at the entire start of D3, when I explained why Erg0's death indicated LMLscum, why I wasn't happier with his earlier play, and how I felt a zealous busing of EmpTyger could very well have come from LmL. I made all of these points earlier, but they went largely unnoticed, so I shifted to SV, who was my second suspect. Now that SV is dead and gone, I'm reverting to LmL. It just so happens that as Thok said,
his points are essentially restatements of the points I had made earlier
:
Glork wrote:
Thok wrote:And I realize looking over Glork's posts, that I've essentially rehahsed comments he's said before. Eh, now I feel bad about not concentrating on this before.
:roll:
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Post Post #1184 (ISO) » Mon Aug 06, 2007 4:52 pm

Post by Thok »

VitR-if Glork was lone scum (and I expect if he is scum, that he is lone scum), how would you expect him to play today, given what he knew of people's suspicions from yesterday?

Glork-while at the time many of my arguments for LML were essentially repeating what you said, I've added some more stuff since then. I think VitR has a valid point that you could have chosen to press LML more today. (On the flip side, I think basically everybody could have been more active today [well, maybe not me, but even I've taken a couple days off from this game today].)

Pooky/LML-either of you feel like saying anything? (I'm almost tempted to ask for another prod on Pooky, except that he's already been prodded recently).
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Post Post #1185 (ISO) » Mon Aug 06, 2007 5:36 pm

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

I'm still going to vote Lee before the deadline. He hasn't convinced me of his innocence.

Would you like me to tell you who i suspect other than Lee?
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Post Post #1186 (ISO) » Tue Aug 07, 2007 5:29 am

Post by Thok »

PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:I'm still going to vote Lee before the deadline. He hasn't convinced me of his innocence.

Would you like me to tell you who i suspect other than Lee?
I'd be more interested in hearing your thoughts on anything game relevant.

vote LML
as promised
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Post Post #1187 (ISO) » Tue Aug 07, 2007 5:39 am

Post by Mr Stoofer »

Deadline in 15 hours and 21 minutes.


As things currently stand there will be no lynch.
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Post Post #1188 (ISO) » Tue Aug 07, 2007 5:41 am

Post by LoudmouthLee »

You're lynching pro-town by lynching me. I tried. I really did.
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Post Post #1189 (ISO) » Tue Aug 07, 2007 6:53 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

VitR has been creeping up my scumdar.

Sorry Lee, that uneasy feeling just isn't going away.

vote LoudMouthLee
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Post Post #1190 (ISO) » Tue Aug 07, 2007 10:48 am

Post by LoudmouthLee »

#3

3rd time I have even been lynched pro-town.

Great job.
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Post Post #1191 (ISO) » Tue Aug 07, 2007 11:37 am

Post by Glork »

If that is the case, we're probably pretty much fucked. :/
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Post Post #1192 (ISO) » Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:39 pm

Post by Thok »

PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:VitR has been creeping up my scumdar.
Curious. My read of the EmpTyger lynch basically made VitR drop lower on my scumdar.
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Post Post #1193 (ISO) » Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:18 pm

Post by VitaminR »

Ah, great. I was hoping I'd have some time to respond to things before a lynch.

Having said that, I see Lee as someone who could keep up the charade until his death scene.
Thok wrote:VitR-if Glork was lone scum (and I expect if he is scum, that he is lone scum), how would you expect him to play today, given what he knew of people's suspicions from yesterday?
I kinda feel like you're leading me to a certain conclusion here, but I'll play ball. It's not really obvious to me what that conclusion would be, anyway.

I see two possibilities:
- Come out guns blazing. Find a target and bluff his way into a mislynch.
- Hang back. Try to let the suspicion of the end of Day 3 subside a bit and stick to his suspicions.

Initially, I expected the former because it is usually how Glork plays, but I'm starting to think the latter is a real possibility, especially considering how the first scenario can backfire the next day.

What worries me most about his play today is that I'm one of his targets, despite the fact that he doesn't seem to have done the analysis he earlier said he needed to form his opinion of me. It suggests to me that he knows or expects that he doesn't need to do that analysis yet. In other words, that he expects there to be another day. I don't see why a pro-town player would not weigh all their options now.
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Post Post #1194 (ISO) » Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:24 pm

Post by Glork »

Meh. I'm starting to shift back towards ThokScum.
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Post Post #1195 (ISO) » Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:30 pm

Post by Glork »

Thok's quesetion to VitR in 1179 sounds like he's trying to get a feeling for how he should be setting up tomorrow. Pooky has repeatedly expressed the belief that Glork and/or LmL are scum. VitR had thought Glork was town for a long time, but was beginning to shift away from that sentiment.


VitR has just sortof been... there. In my first re-read, I thought he seemed scummy, but the second time around, I had changed my mind. He correctly pointed out why Skruffs was very likely protown. Given Skruffs' position, I don't think that VitR-scum would have much (if any) motivation to make a defense like that.

Erg0's death could still have been Thok trying to feel out if the game was non-mountainous (possibly with a Traitor). I don't like how Thok made a case that was, in large part, a restatement of what I had said (yes, I realize that Thok brought up new points, but I still feel that the strongest points against LmL were ones that I had already made)... yet he implies that I am scum riding his coattails, which just seems a bit hypocritical to me.

I have reverted back to thinking that Pooky is town based on PJ's play -- especially his interactions with EmpTyger. Honestly, though, I expect Pooky to die overnight, so this is probably a moot statement.
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Post Post #1196 (ISO) » Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:50 pm

Post by Glork »

And actually, yeah, most of this supplemental stuff that Thok suggested -- especially the meta-attacks on LmL's inactivity -- is crap that I definitely wouldn't buy, especially given Thok's behavior during D1 of this game (and his behavior during the first ~40 pages of Lights Out 2).
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Post Post #1197 (ISO) » Tue Aug 07, 2007 2:07 pm

Post by Thok »

VitR, I'll admit that my question in 1184 was somewhat leading. I felt that GlorkScum would have had problems winning an endgame in which he had to go head to head with either Pooky or me. (If I was in an endgame with Glork, he can't really plausibly vote me given what he's said earlier in the thread, and he's going to lose any head to head with other people still alive). Which meant I felt as scum that he would consider attacking me today, as I'm a somewhat easier target today that in endgame.

Glork's recent posts suggest that I've misinterpretted his thought processes. Note that he's preemptively attacking me before even knowing LML's true alignment.

I feel 1195/1196 is Glork trying to wiggle out of his inevitable lynch tomorrow (assuming LML is telling the truth about be town, and we only have one scum left).

At the time of 1179, we were at deadline, with LML the leading lynch target and VitR clearly being opposed to that vote, but not voting for an alternative. I think it's fair to ask him what action he feels like he should be taking at that time.

Moreover, why would scum-me have needed to set-up tomorrow at all, Glork? You'd already said that you probably weren't going to vote me tomorrow, VitR had given inklings that way at the time, and Pooky had also basically called me protown. So, scum-me would need to set-up tomorrow to win an endgame that I would have already had set up to win for the most part?

I think your comment about 1184 is trying to misinterpret the point I was making about VitR's comment. You've been much less aggressive in going after LML then you normally are in hunting scum. You could have been busy trying to refute LML's points or pressuring him to try to talk. Instead you've said very little.

(And my comment about Meta stuff isn't all that I've done-I posted an analysis of what I felt LML's role on EmpTyger's wagon was like.)
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Post Post #1198 (ISO) » Tue Aug 07, 2007 3:55 pm

Post by Glork »

I'm playing as though we're going to be in LyLo tomorrow, under the assumption that LmL was in fact town. If the game is over, then this debate is entirely moot.

If LmL was scum and the game continues, I think I'd be looking at VitR. But his last post makes me believe that he was in fact a townie, and that the game is mountainous.


I don't like bringing real life into things usually, but Thok, the honest truth is that I've neglected this game (as well as almost all of my other games) because I've been interviewing at least twice a week, and I just found out last week that I'm almost definitely going to get a job offer, so I'm trying to look at apartments in Columbus so that I can move in the next month or so. To be completely 100% honest, I seriously considered asking to be replaced in several of my games, this one included. But I decided that I owed it to everyone to stick things out, so I've pretty much skated along. If you want proof of how absurd my life has been as of late, I can link you to my blog or something. Yes, I haven't been as aggressive here as I usually am. I've not been up to par in *ANY* of my games as of late because Mafia just isn't a priority in my life right now. I seriously think that, as my current games finish, I'm going to be taking an extended hiatus from the site.
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Post Post #1199 (ISO) » Tue Aug 07, 2007 8:46 pm

Post by Mr Stoofer »

V
o
t
e
C
o
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LoudmouthLee: 3 (Glork, Thok, PookyTheMagicalBear)

Thok: 1 (LML)

Not voting: VitaminR
Last edited by Mr Stoofer on Thu Aug 09, 2007 12:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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