Open 734: Paris Mafia (13-player variation) - Game Over


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Post Post #1175 (ISO) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:16 am

Post by Jingle »

Do you read my posts?
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Post Post #1176 (ISO) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:22 am

Post by Jingle »

Summary of 1158:

Lynching Thor gives us a 31.25% chance of a town win.
No Lynching gives us a 19.4% chance of a town win.

This is based entirely on objective math. Provable math. If you want me to explain why it's true, say so. If you're having trouble understanding the premise, say so. Just saying "It can't happen" and handwaiving away the posts I make where I prove that it can is entirely useless.
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Post Post #1177 (ISO) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:07 pm

Post by Thor665 »

I didn't realize that - that increases town's wincon in my version though.
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Post Post #1178 (ISO) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:21 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Vote Count

Thor665 - 2 - fink, jingle
No Lynch - 1 - Eragon

Not Voting - Thor665, innocentvillager, Guiltylion

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline is Friday October 12 at 4:30pm EST
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Post Post #1179 (ISO) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:23 pm

Post by Jingle »

It does not.

There is no situation in which we no lynch and the town regains majority without the mime dying to a mafia shot.
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Post Post #1180 (ISO) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 1:34 pm

Post by Jingle »

Unless you want me to consider the odds that you or your partner gets shot by mafia.
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Post Post #1181 (ISO) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:13 pm

Post by innocentvillager »

I onvioisly havemt read everything but i feel like people are just arguing about setup strata and ill just go along wih whatwvwr, i just dont have the time for this rn

In all seriousness should i replace out? I dont want to cost us the game bc im not really engaged and able to keep up. Sorry about this
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Post Post #1182 (ISO) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:07 pm

Post by Jingle »

If you're legitimately unable to play you should always replace out. If you can play stay in. As simple as that.

Basically, where we're at is that we should lynch thor, it's optimal play for mime to target in {you, Fink, GL} and it's optimal play for mafia to shoot whichever one of those three is their strongest mime read, assuming everyone agrees that I'm functionally confirmed town for dropping the mime wincon to 6% and arguing tooth and nail for the strategy with the best antimafia odds since yesterday.

If we can't all agree that I'm functionally conftown, mime should target in the same pool plus me, but mafia should be shooting at Eragon.
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Post Post #1183 (ISO) » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:09 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 1179, Jingle wrote:It does not.

There is no situation in which we no lynch and the town regains majority without the mime dying to a mafia shot.
I guess the scenario in which mime roleblocks you tonight would also count, but again, that requires gamethrowing, so...
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Post Post #1184 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:03 am

Post by GuiltyLion »

VOTE: Thor

Jingles right
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
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Post Post #1185 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:41 am

Post by Eragon »

At least I’m done with this game

@mafia if you leave me alive I kingmake you over mime every time
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Post Post #1186 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:41 am

Post by Eragon »

I’m going to hammer in about 1 hour and 19 minutes
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Post Post #1187 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:24 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1185, Eragon wrote:At least I’m done with this game

@mafia if you leave me alive I kingmake you over mime every time
If mime realizes I’m town then you’re still alive literally 50% of the time.

Target in your mafia pool. Which hopefully doesn’t include me, to increase the chances of auto win.
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Post Post #1188 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:14 am

Post by Jingle »

In post 1182, Jingle wrote:I'm functionally conftown
FWIW, if you suspect me to be mime it doesn't change the strategies away from what I described. It only matters whether anyone (the mime) actually believes I can be mafia at this point.
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Post Post #1189 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:42 am

Post by Eragon »

VOTE: Thor
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Post Post #1190 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:47 am

Post by Jingle »

Eragon, Mime, target for mafia.
Mafia, target for Eragon or mime, depending on whether you believe the mime believes me to be conftown.

Everyone, please tell KMD to shorten the nightphase so this game can end sooner.
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Post Post #1191 (ISO) » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:50 pm

Post by Kmd4390 »

Vote Count

Thor665 - 2 - fink, jingle, Guiltylion
No Lynch - 1 - Eragon

Not Voting - Thor665, innocentvillager

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline is Friday October 12 at 4:30pm EST


Eragons vote came 12 minutes after deadline and does not count, resulting in a no Lynch.


Deadline for night actions is Monday October 15 at 8pm EST
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Post Post #1192 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:18 am

Post by Kmd4390 »

Fink,
Vanilla Townie
, has been killed Night 5.

Day 6 begins now


Vote Count


Not Voting - Thor665, innocentvillager, Jingle, GuiltyLion, Eragon

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

Deadline is Tuesday October 23 at 7:00pm EST
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Post Post #1193 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:29 am

Post by Jingle »

Oh, cool. Happily ever after. VOTE: Thor
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Post Post #1194 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:36 am

Post by Eragon »

I don’t think there is a way to win for town right?
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Post Post #1195 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:39 am

Post by Jingle »

Theoretically, if the mime thinks I’m mafia they could block me instead of the mafia and get nightkilled. Otherwise there is no way for anyone to win and it’s a draw. Regardless we vote Thor today.
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Post Post #1196 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:41 am

Post by Jingle »

BSically vote Thor, there’s no point in putting it off
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Post Post #1197 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:01 am

Post by Thor665 »

Frankly I'm amazed I'm still alive. :lol:
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Post Post #1198 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:02 am

Post by Thor665 »

Yeah, guess Mime can just target whichever of IV or GL they aren't and town can play for the tie.
Excitement galore.
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Post Post #1199 (ISO) » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:03 am

Post by Thor665 »

VOTE: No Lynch

Definitely *my* best wincon ;)
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