Open 734: Paris Mafia (13-player variation) - Game Over

[Jingle]

Do you read my posts?

[Jingle]

Summary of 1158:

Lynching Thor gives us a 31.25% chance of a town win.
No Lynching gives us a 19.4% chance of a town win.

This is based entirely on objective math. Provable math. If you want me to explain why it's true, say so. If you're having trouble understanding the premise, say so. Just saying "It can't happen" and handwaiving away the posts I make where I prove that it can is entirely useless.

[Thor665]

I didn't realize that - that increases town's wincon in my version though.

[Kmd4390]

Vote Count

Thor665 - 2 - fink, jingle
No Lynch - 1 - Eragon

Not Voting - Thor665, innocentvillager, Guiltylion

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline is Friday October 12 at 4:30pm EST

[Jingle]

It does not.

There is no situation in which we no lynch and the town regains majority without the mime dying to a mafia shot.

[Jingle]

Unless you want me to consider the odds that you or your partner gets shot by mafia.

[innocentvillager]

I onvioisly havemt read everything but i feel like people are just arguing about setup strata and ill just go along wih whatwvwr, i just dont have the time for this rn

In all seriousness should i replace out? I dont want to cost us the game bc im not really engaged and able to keep up. Sorry about this

[Jingle]

If you're legitimately unable to play you should always replace out. If you can play stay in. As simple as that.

Basically, where we're at is that we should lynch thor, it's optimal play for mime to target in {you, Fink, GL} and it's optimal play for mafia to shoot whichever one of those three is their strongest mime read, assuming everyone agrees that I'm functionally confirmed town for dropping the mime wincon to 6% and arguing tooth and nail for the strategy with the best antimafia odds since yesterday.

If we can't all agree that I'm functionally conftown, mime should target in the same pool plus me, but mafia should be shooting at Eragon.

[Jingle]

It does not.

There is no situation in which we no lynch and the town regains majority without the mime dying to a mafia shot.

I guess the scenario in which mime roleblocks you tonight would also count, but again, that requires gamethrowing, so...

[GuiltyLion]

VOTE: Thor

Jingles right

[Eragon]

At least I’m done with this game

@mafia if you leave me alive I kingmake you over mime every time

[Eragon]

I’m going to hammer in about 1 hour and 19 minutes

[Jingle]

At least I’m done with this game

@mafia if you leave me alive I kingmake you over mime every time

If mime realizes I’m town then you’re still alive literally 50% of the time.

Target in your mafia pool. Which hopefully doesn’t include me, to increase the chances of auto win.

[Jingle]

I'm functionally conftown

FWIW, if you suspect me to be mime it doesn't change the strategies away from what I described. It only matters whether anyone (the mime) actually believes I can be mafia at this point.

[Eragon]

VOTE: Thor

[Jingle]

Eragon, Mime, target for mafia.
Mafia, target for Eragon or mime, depending on whether you believe the mime believes me to be conftown.

Everyone, please tell KMD to shorten the nightphase so this game can end sooner.

[Kmd4390]

Vote Count

Thor665 - 2 - fink, jingle, Guiltylion
No Lynch - 1 - Eragon

Not Voting - Thor665, innocentvillager

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline is Friday October 12 at 4:30pm EST

Eragons vote came 12 minutes after deadline and does not count, resulting in a no Lynch.

Deadline for night actions is Monday October 15 at 8pm EST

[Kmd4390]

Fink,

Vanilla Townie

, has been killed Night 5.

Day 6 begins now

Vote Count

Not Voting - Thor665, innocentvillager, Jingle, GuiltyLion, Eragon

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

Deadline is Tuesday October 23 at 7:00pm EST

[Jingle]

Oh, cool. Happily ever after. VOTE: Thor

[Eragon]

I don’t think there is a way to win for town right?

[Jingle]

Theoretically, if the mime thinks I’m mafia they could block me instead of the mafia and get nightkilled. Otherwise there is no way for anyone to win and it’s a draw. Regardless we vote Thor today.

[Jingle]

BSically vote Thor, there’s no point in putting it off

[Thor665]

Frankly I'm amazed I'm still alive.

[Thor665]

Yeah, guess Mime can just target whichever of IV or GL they aren't and town can play for the tie.
Excitement galore.

[Thor665]

VOTE: No Lynch

Definitely *my* best wincon