Mafiascum.net

Why was Sherlock killed last night?

In post 1173, Bingle wrote:They don’t tend to push unpopular things when they can afford to sit on their hands, no.

ooh this is such an interesting and testable idea
but i don't get what it means - what does it mean for a player to sit on their hands? no vote at all? just sheeping? lurking? can scum usually afford that kind of disengagement for long?

In post 1175, Nachomamma8 wrote:Why was Sherlock killed last night?

In post 642, SherlockHolmes wrote:Subject: Saga Mafia Threats to Hazel PT

Sujimichi wrote:Hey mastina! I think that I should keep my current role, if that is okay with you. This is my first time as Mafia, and being assured of death prior to Day 3 relieves some of the pressure for me.

Suji started this game after s/he started this one. I think that dropping the tone in that comment is entirely natural, and wasn’t planned out as a safeguard against that game ending first, which makes me strongly believe they had rolled town in this game before getting their scum PM there.

This is why I said it was angleshooty and I still think it’s kind of ick, but I would like us to move on from suji!scum discussion.

7.5 days to deadline. It's not late, but worth noting that the VC in the last 3 days has been pretty much stalling. My current interpretation of the gamestate is that there are very few people willing to commit to their reads. I don't like that, but there are too many offenders to say this is scum indicative - however, the thought has crossed my mind that scum might be exploiting this situation to blend in and wait for wagons to form in order to jump on them as they conveniently see fit. This is in direct contrast to my current gamesolve of Hectic/Chara though, and might be pointing towards Psyche and Replica more than anyone else. Why aren't those two voting towards their supported reads, given how strong they say they feel about them?

@Nacho and Chemist, besides not voting, you two are probably the main reasons for the day stalling - Nacho more than Chemist in this regard, also because Chemist very likely wants to hear more from his top scumread Nacho specifically (as do everyone, to be fair).

In post 1125, popsofctown wrote:

Fight Votecount 2.1

Chemist1422 ---------------------------

(1)

Amrun

By the way when did this happen? I think... never? Amrun should be voting Bingle in this VC

In post 1173, Bingle wrote:

In post 1161, Amrun wrote:

In post 1157, Bingle wrote:You disagree that Farkran being the only one to actively push something when I replaced in is town indicative?

Are we literally supposed to pretend that scum don’t push things? Idgi

They don’t tend to push unpopular things when they can afford to sit on their hands, no. Am I wrong that fark has a fairly contentious angle?

Sort of, but there’s no consensus scumread on anyone so there’s no really popular way to go. Most people did townread Hectic so I would say that one qualifies.

In post 1174, Bingle wrote:

In post 1160, Amrun wrote:(Of note: alimdia actually did something similar to a scum buddy in GnR. She drew attention to her lurking, but this was pushed by Menalque behind the scenes and it was a very different gamestate. I think it’s unlikely alimdia would repeat that here.)

This is what I’m talking about when I say it looks like am doesn’t really believe the case btw.

Why, because I’m actually interested in the truth rather than death tunneling? Also, this is about whether alimdia scum spews Psyche town or not - it has NOTHING to do with alimdia being scum or not. I know you’re a very capable reader so I really don’t understand how you could misread that so badly.

In post 1175, Nachomamma8 wrote:Why was Sherlock killed last night?

Nacho, bb, plz read.

HEAL: Farkran
HURT: Nacho

Going with Farkran over hectic because I feel like my townread is more substantial

so the reason Chara's posting was town EoD yesterday was because i found myself agreeing with most of what it was saying while it also come off as natural.
and the way they made the flurry of posts when they said someone was calling their posting gold which inspired them to post more, the tone was really towny there.
i liked the progression on Psyche where Chara doubted Pscyhe actually found it so hard to believe that Suji would lie in a different game's PT, but then warmed up to him by pointing out 1079 was really town which i found really towny too.
also it's reason for reading me as town based on my annoyance at not asking Suji to hammer felt very genuine.
but honestly?
a lot of it also comes from them pushing me as a SPARE so much.
i don't see the loser-motivation in it's read there since SPARING me won't give it towncred because of no flip, and once i'm gone, my townread on Chara doesn't matter so will make it harder for it to get SPARED.
it's risky for it as a loser considering the 4 SPARE route with what we know is a town already SPARED, and no guarantee of getting SPARED the next day, unless it's exactly scum with Replica.
it was also pushing me as a SPARE over both Sherlock and Suji in 806 who were widely townread and very probably SPAREs the next day if they weren't SPARED then.
bad idea if they're going for 4 SPAREs as a loser and actually want to get SPARED at some point.
it can only nightkill one of them.
i guess a lot of this only makes sense from my perspective and i can see more now why Chara+Hectic works as a team in Farkran's mind.
but eh.
HEAL: Chara

I feel like I don't really understand your post Hectic. It seems to boil down to why push to spare you as mafia Chara, especially over Sujimichi/Sherlock. This doesn't really seem convincing to me, given that Chara voted you earlier and was skeptical of the PT post's strength. 180ing isn't a good look at all, and in both 3/4 spare cases you want people whose alignment is in question to get it over strong consensus townreads.

I was happy to see Chara react with more content in response to my "posting gold" comment, but I had also made it clear that responses like that (Successfully getting others engaged) were exactly what I've been hoping to achieve this game. That unfortunately makes the desire very exploitable.

In post 1178, Farkran wrote:This is in direct contrast to my current gamesolve of Hectic/Chara though, and might be pointing towards Psyche and Replica more than anyone else. Why aren't those two voting towards their supported reads, given how strong they say they feel about them?

Tying back to your speculation that scum might be sitting and waiting for wagons to hop on, I think I've been pretty explicit why I've been hanging back. I strongly felt like I needed new angles and content to really make progress, one way was from Nacho showing up and giving a dearth of content, but now I've more settled for taking a step back to take a new perspective to ISOs. I'm very conscious that I tend to plow into the same ISOs over and over and run myself in circles; I'm trying to be more cerebral about how I approach reads.

The only strong read I also have is from Chara's interaction with me/Amrun, and as mentioned in my opening post I want more. I think you have a point that I'm nervous to commit to it. My goal for the day has been to get 1/2 really solid townreads, and not getting them has led to me being less proactive with my vote than I probably should be.

HEAL: Chara, still not eager to commit to it but Farkran is right that I should be making use of my vote.

chara seems a weird spare choice for today
i don't know how anyone can be certain he's town

I really disagree with Amrun's Alimdia read-they were a townlean for me and going back through the ISO this seems true to me.

Comparing Alimdia's posting here to a recently completed scumgame makes me feel better about the slot, too. There's a lot of throwing out loose speculation and accusations with a lot less emphasis on Alimdia not understanding points or trying to get to the bottom of them.

Posts like Alim's #129, #202, and #211 show a lot more genuine confusion and interest in understanding someone's thinking imo.

I feel a lot better about the slot now. I think Bingle generally isn't framing the argument correctly with the nature of Amrun's read. It might be in reaction to Amrun's #1161 uses hyperbole that can imply it should NEVER be townread, rather than focusing on it not being a great universal tell/it being specific to the player.

I'm solidly off board with either of their approaches.

bizarre

In post 1186, Psyche wrote:chara seems a weird spare choice for today
i don't know how anyone can be

that

certain he's town

There's a good chance you've said this but like, who would you pick for the day?

My instincts have been Hectic/Chara. In both cases I want more. I'd be willing to throw Bingle in there now, entirely based off the alimdia slot.

you've gotta know we can't afford to spare even ambiguous slots how do you even bring alimdia into the conversation about sparing

and "instincts"?? we can't spare based on rough gutreads

Going through the timeline more explicitly again yeah Bingle is definitely in the wrong here, and his reaction w/r/t his read on Farkran is very secondary.

In post 1190, Psyche wrote:you've gotta know we can't afford to spare even ambiguous slots how do you even bring alimdia into the conversation about sparing

In post 1191, Psyche wrote:and "instincts"?? we can't spare based on rough gutreads

I disagree on both counts, but the good news is that.....I really don't want to spare a gutread! So we at least have the desire in common, even if we disagree on the willingness to.

In post 1184, Replica wrote:I feel like I don't really understand your post Hectic. It seems to boil down to why push to spare you as mafia Chara, especially over Sujimichi/Sherlock. This doesn't really seem convincing to me, given that Chara voted you earlier and was skeptical of the PT post's strength. 180ing isn't a good look at all, and in both 3/4 spare cases you want people whose alignment is in question to get it over strong consensus townreads.

I was happy to see Chara react with more content in response to my "posting gold" comment, but I had also made it clear that responses like that (Successfully getting others engaged) were exactly what I've been hoping to achieve this game. That unfortunately makes the desire very exploitable.

a lot of people were reading Suji and Sherlock both as strong town at that point.
SPARING me means one of those is very likely to get SPARED the next day.
it's not a good plan for loser!Chara who at that point knows all 3 of Hectic, Suji, Sherlock are town.
and doesn't know who the FN is who is another potential free SPARE.

I was really curious what your answer to my spare question was Psyche, but reading your day I'm a bit confused now. #1055 says Hectic would be fine but you seem to think there's more work to be done here. You seem to generally be in favor of sparing today.

I guess I almost got caught by the word "ambiguous" in 1055, which I initially didn't understand the importance of it being used in a very different sense, about how forthcoming with your reads instead of how likely the slot is to be town.

Am I right to think your spare choice would be Hectic? What's the nature of your belief about him?

In post 1194, Hectic wrote:

In post 1184, Replica wrote:I feel like I don't really understand your post Hectic. It seems to boil down to why push to spare you as mafia Chara, especially over Sujimichi/Sherlock. This doesn't really seem convincing to me, given that Chara voted you earlier and was skeptical of the PT post's strength. 180ing isn't a good look at all, and in both 3/4 spare cases you want people whose alignment is in question to get it over strong consensus townreads.

I was happy to see Chara react with more content in response to my "posting gold" comment, but I had also made it clear that responses like that (Successfully getting others engaged) were exactly what I've been hoping to achieve this game. That unfortunately makes the desire very exploitable.

a lot of people were reading Suji and Sherlock both as strong town at that point.
SPARING me means one of those is very likely to get SPARED the next day.
it's not a good plan for loser!Chara who at that point knows all 3 of Hectic, Suji, Sherlock are town.
and doesn't know who the FN is who is another potential free SPARE.

I see a lot of problems with this. I think the most obvious is that they get to nightkill, paired again with mafia preferring non-locktown spares to locktown spares (As they will someday reenter the lynch pool in 3/4 spare scenarios)

In post 1175, Nachomamma8 wrote:Why was Sherlock killed last night?

I appreciate that, failing a full catchup, you've switched gears to trying to pick up the pieces as you go.

Respectfully, though, I think you need to start at the "What am I confused by, what am I struggling with, and why am I finding it so difficult?" questions rather than trying to grab hold of the first thing you see.

In post 1196, Replica wrote:

In post 1194, Hectic wrote:

In post 1184, Replica wrote:I feel like I don't really understand your post Hectic. It seems to boil down to why push to spare you as mafia Chara, especially over Sujimichi/Sherlock. This doesn't really seem convincing to me, given that Chara voted you earlier and was skeptical of the PT post's strength. 180ing isn't a good look at all, and in both 3/4 spare cases you want people whose alignment is in question to get it over strong consensus townreads.

I was happy to see Chara react with more content in response to my "posting gold" comment, but I had also made it clear that responses like that (Successfully getting others engaged) were exactly what I've been hoping to achieve this game. That unfortunately makes the desire very exploitable.

a lot of people were reading Suji and Sherlock both as strong town at that point.
SPARING me means one of those is very likely to get SPARED the next day.
it's not a good plan for loser!Chara who at that point knows all 3 of Hectic, Suji, Sherlock are town.
and doesn't know who the FN is who is another potential free SPARE.

I see a lot of problems with this. I think the most obvious is that they get to nightkill, paired again with mafia preferring non-locktown spares to locktown spares (As they will someday reenter the lynch pool in 3/4 spare scenarios)

yeah, so point being one can be nightkilled but not both.
doubt one of Suji/Sherlock don't get SPARED today if either was alive.
i think Chara's been going for 4 SPAREs iirc.

think there are a few safe spare calls today
would rather seem the nk miss them so feel uneasy about pushing all of them
and at the same time, it's probably better to focus on exploring and generating content this early in the day
i can get us a consensus more easily with a deadline looming anyway
god i have got to work on my sleep habits im not at 100% at all rn