Mafiascum.net

In post 1151, CooLDoG wrote:If he flips town, and you voted to lynch him you should replace out because of the absolute shame that lynching a d1 pr claim has with it. Like actually. I will quote every one of the posts you make, with the final vc, and then asking you to replace out if he flips town.

but go ahead. Lynch the watcher or the gunsmith d1.... alright, great idea. fantastic. I will vote park hoopla, and nothing you say can or will convince me to do otherwise d2. enjoy. I'ma gonna leave my vote on una for now. I'm down for whatever. who gives a shot.

In post 1152, notscience wrote:Now now agar scum won’t claim watcher d1 he has to be town !!!

Pedit

Wow you’re such a pleasure to play with

I have so much setup spec going on in my brain with 1-shot gs+watcher. I’m mad. Gonna power reread after work tonight.

Fucking A why is the Cooldog quote in there.

I have setup thoughts about it all too but I’m not sure it’s time for that.

No I know.

, , Emperor flippyNips, UnaBombaH, Hoopla
AGar, Gypyx, Hiraki
gobbledygook, notscience
bob3141, Battle Mage
Klick, CooLDoG
PranaDevil

VOTE: gobble

Sorry. Deadline. Best wagon is on you and we need to consolidate.

this will be my last post explaining my position about the watcher, then i'll move onto something else, seeing that everyone isn't willing to the challenge the accepted orthodoxy.

~~

In post 1140, Klick wrote:I really don't care; from a game theory perspective, you don't lynch the strong PR D1 because there's little to gain if they're scum, but there's plenty to lose if they're town.

We lynch someone that looks scummy, and even if Prana is scum and fakes a guilty like under Hoopla's theory, we basically are choosing who looks scummier between Prana and his guilty.

we've already lost most of the utility of the role by it claiming. the only value the role has if its town is that it can sometimes soak up the nightkill. a watcher isn't like a cop where its investigation is so powerful, scum are forced to kill there. the watcher only has a ~10% chance of getting a guilty if scum kill an off-the-radar player - and that isn't even factoring in if scum have a blocking/ninja type role. what information do you think prana can possibly get if he's town?

i'm less concerned about the branch of the possibility tree where prana claims a guilty - and more concerned about the branches where he claims a no result/nobody visited X outcome. what then? this is the most likely outcome if prana is alive D2. do we then waste D2 guessing on that slot? do we give him a pass and let him live to D3 on the guise that we can work it out from a setup spec perspective?

personally, i think the value of scum occasionally killing a town-prana in one branch of the tree + a slither of a chance of a guilty from town-prana in another branch is offset by the possibility of scum-prana living to D3 with a no-result claim, or scum framing a town-prana with a ninja/block/left-field kill, and us mislynching D2 (a day we should be lynching based off flips, rather than trying to outguess wifom).

in klick's watcher game he so kindly linked, scum had a 1-shot JK - waking up on D2 in the most -EV situations for the town (prana alive with a no-result claim) is the most frequent outcome imo.

people assume all the risk is in lynching the PR, but there is just as much risk the other way in letting a scummy slot live, allowing wifom to fester on later days. there are risks to both. and in my eyes, a watcher claim in this specific instance seems more likely to come from scum imo. and i'd rather lynch scum than put my faith in a blind speedwagon with 36 hours to go.

We aren’t going to convince them hoops.

to emphasise and follow up on this thought:

In post 1181, Hoopla wrote:and i'd rather lynch scum than put my faith in a blind speedwagon with 36 hours to go.

what are towns expecting by lynching elsewhere today? are we just going to keep running up players until we hit a VT claim? let me repeat: scum aren't going to claim VT. we're either going to run up a real VT, or scum will claim some other role.

~~

as an aside - the predicament we're in now (36 hours from deadline with no real plan and a fractured town) is exactly why i advocate for organising the lynch earlier on D1.

i'll be making further "i told you so" posts when we end up ruining D2 with wifom-poisoning.

Time to kill the newb

VOTE: Gypyx

UNVOTE:
VOTE: una

In post 1180, notscience wrote:VOTE: gobble

Sorry. Deadline. Best wagon is on you and we need to consolidate.

Oh come on, you don't even have gobble as a scumread. Your Una townread has zero substance but you refuse to either commit to reasons for dancing around him or let me push through a rather confident scumread on the slot.

My vote isn't moving. It's Una/notscience/???.

do whatever you want, I’ll save my I told you sos for later

Hoopla, I've always considered Watcher a rather strong role, but I can sort of see the idea behind it not being a slam dunk winner role. I consider it far more useful than a Doc for example - I think it has the same functionality, except instead of blocking a kill it trades 1-for-1 with scum.

If true its likely to be a significant portion of our available night power.

battle mage's 1174 is woeful, by the way.

In post 1174, Battle Mage wrote:On balance, I think Hoopla is town for taking and persisting with the "I want to lynch the claimed PR" approach

In post 1174, Battle Mage wrote:Your final "possibility" which suggests a risk of mislynch tomorrow is somehow worse than a surefire mislynch today is odd. Also giving him ideas of what to claim tomorrow, probably not helpful. Well, my Hoopla town-read evaporated quickly...

very well hedged.

In post 1189, Klick wrote:Hoopla, I've always considered Watcher a rather strong role, but I can sort of see the idea behind it not being a slam dunk winner role. I consider it far more useful than a Doc for example - I think it has the same functionality, except instead of blocking a kill it trades 1-for-1 with scum.

If true its likely to be a significant portion of our available night power.

Yeah but you don’t replace protective with watcher it’s invest

I think a Watcher is far more like a Doctor than it is like, say, a Tracker or a Cop.
But this isn't a particularly important conversation to have right now

Hoops he’s Espeonage slot that’s been scum all day but we ignored it for these lovely wagons just like we ignore other scum

In post 1189, Klick wrote:Hoopla, I've always considered Watcher a rather strong role, but I can sort of see the idea behind it not being a slam dunk winner role. I consider it far more useful than a Doc for example - I think it has the same functionality, except instead of blocking a kill it trades 1-for-1 with scum.

If true its likely to be a significant portion of our available night power.

if it's true, so what if it was a significant portion of our power? it isn't now. we no longer have the opportunity of it yielding useful results. scum will either manipulate its results (rb/jk/ninja/left-field kill) and play wifom games D2, OR if he's scum we're in the exact same situation as today. think of the role as more like a Passive Wifom Enabler.

the only way i see scum killing a town-prana is if they're a scumteam without an obfuscating role and don't want to risk it, but i'm telling you now, if i were scum i would leave town-prana alive and let the town's paranoia take over.

Yeah it’s fairly obvious that’s the correct play for scum but it’s fine because he claimed watcher hoopla scum would never fakeclaim a pr in a day 1 wagon

In post 1193, notscience wrote:Hoops he’s Espeonage slot that’s been scum all day but we ignored it for these lovely wagons just like we ignore other scum

yes, i feel like i haven't been paying enough attention to that slot.

i absolutely would lynch there too.

Sure as fuck beats these wagons

In post 1189, Klick wrote:Hoopla, I've always considered Watcher a rather strong role, but I can sort of see the idea behind it not being a slam dunk winner role. I consider it far more useful than a Doc for example - I think it has the same functionality, except instead of blocking a kill it trades 1-for-1 with scum.

If true its likely to be a significant portion of our available night power.

Watcher only gains strength as the game progresses and the pool of players gets thinned out. Claiming D1 basically kills any benefit of it. I wouldn't consider it a strong amount of night power in setup balancing unless I had protections for it.



This Una wagon is fucking terrible. He's put reads out the whole game and engaged more than would be necessary in this town on D1. Like fuck.

Scumfuck McTurkey is still playing in the exact manner they claim someone else is scum for - his case is all horseshit to push a trash lynch through. This is how manufactured cases skate by like fucking McDavid against a turnstile. Gobblewagon is the best wagon.

P-Edit: BM is a meh compromise lynch and god dammit Notty just help me fucking kill Scumfuck McTurkey.

Hoopla you can’t die tonight you’re my dose of sanity in this thread

Pedit

I’m on the damn turkey but bm and prana are both scum