976: mystyry box of sylvyr I: isis game. day 3

[SKYEscrapers]

dunn, why didn't you seem to care at all the thomas wasn't saying anything?

[Gypyx]

Did you crumb your role anywhere akarin?

[Akarin]

Why on Earth would I ever crumb?

I said the sentence it relates to should be obvious, and I think it's one of the easiest matches to a sentence of all the claims, but who the heck crumbs cop? Especially when I can't get a reliable guilty.

[Gypyx]

What sentance do you think your role matches to? Because i'm not seeing it

[mastina]

Tgp too. Tgp dying is strange

Sure is!
Funny how you're pushing me as scum when the kills don't line up with me being scum.
Pointing out how the TGP kill is strange in a scumastina world, and then not reevaluating what that means, is a big .

Also, why would I need to fake innocent Dunn today.

Because Dunnstral was getting eliminated without a question if you didn't?

SKYE has been townreading me most of the game. In a me-Dunn scum world, why wouldn't I just bus, kill Mastina, and get SKYE to vote Gypyx with me?

Because of the risk that my death would clear Gypyx.

I don't like how Mastina leaves this option out.

To some extent, because there's less point in them.
There's little point in discussing scenarios which didn't happen--why would I kill MathBlade when leaving MathBlade alive would allow a MathBlade-Akarin fight to continue into D2? I wouldn't, but the fact remains that MathBlade did die N1, so talking about scenarios in which he didn't die N1 does little good.

Same goes for here. Why would you claim a result in 5p lylo when you could possibly win in 3p lylo? While you say you wouldn't, the fact remains that you have claimed a result in 5p lylo.

Talking about hypotheticals that didn't happen can have some value, but less than talking about what DID happen, and figuring out the

why

it happened.

You claimed an innocent on Dunnstral.
That means there are only two worlds:
You are town, with an actual innocent;
You are scum, lying about an innocent.

There's no other worlds which exist, so the question is figuring out which of the worlds is more likely. The why behind the actions, the most likely outcome.

I really don't like Mastina's walls there. Just in a sort of visceral way, the amount of words and pushing on how SKYE and I must both know Mastina is innocent, the assumptions going into the hard CC theory without as much waffling as other stuff seems to get.

There is no 'assumption' as to there being a hard-CC. There is literal fucking mechanical proof of it being a hard-CC. They are both claiming Alien. Different modifiers to the role, but the same base role. Alien.

Dunnstral is claiming a Loud modifier to his Alien role and targeted DT N1--but DT showed no signs of being targeted by Dunn D2.
This means that EITHER: Dunnstral is lying, OR: Dunnstral was roleblocked N1.

The only players in the game who could have roleblocked Dunnstral N1 are Gypyx or SKYEscrapers. And SKYEscrapers claimed a role that could do so.
But I know that I was roleblocked N2. And SKYEscrapers claimed 1x Alien targeting me N2. Meaning that the only way SKYEscrapers could have blocked Dunn N1 is if they are lying about being a 1x Alien and are actually something like a 2x Alien.

Ergo.
Either Dunnstral is lying about his role and is scum, OR, SKYEscrapers is lying about their role and is scum.

This doesn't take a mechanical genius to figure out. It's self-evident from the claims. Dunnstral is claiming he was roleblocked N1; SKYEscrapers is claiming 1x that targeted me N2; one of those claims must inherently be false.

So no fucking shit there's zero waffling there, there's zero doubt on that, there's zero 'assumptions' in there. There's just facts.
FACT: Dunnstral is claiming Loud Odd-night Alien.
FACT: Dunnstral is claiming he targeted DoubtingThomas N1.
FACT: DoubtingThomas showed zero indication of having been targeted by Dunnstral D2.
FACT: Dunnstral has stated he believes he was roleblocked N1.
FACT: Nobody has claimed to have roleblocked Dunnstral N1.
CONCLUSION1: Because nobody has claimed to have roleblocked Dunnstral N1, either Dunn was roleblocked by scum or Dunnstral is lying.

FACT: SKYEscrapers is claiming oneshot alien.
FACT: SKYEscrapers is claiming they did not use it N1.
FACT: SKEYscrapers is claiming they targeted me N2.
FACT: I have claimed my action failed N2.
FACT: Nobody else has given an action explanation for why my action would fail.
CONCLUSION2: Because there is no other possible explanation, SKYEscrapers blocked me last night.

CONCLUSION3: The only possible worlds are therefore that SKYEscrapers is a 1x Alien who targeted me last night, or is not a one-shot Alien (e.g. is actually 2x or so) and used one shot on me last night while still having more.

Given Conclusion 1 and Conclusion 3, there is only one explanation, a stupidly self-obvious CONCLUSION4: SKYEscrapers' claim of being a 1x alien, and Dunnstral's claim of being a Loud Odd-night Alien that was roleblocked N1, are mutually exclusive.

So what, exactly, in this logical train is wrong?
MathBlade would follow this and agree.
TGP would follow this and agree.

Literally any player with one iota of logicalness to their playstyle and literally any player claiming to be mechanically-oriented (there's a significant overlap between the two) would follow this and agree with me, because this is stupidly obvious logic. A third-grader would be able to see the logical train.

There is no waffling behind there being a definitive hard-cc in Dunn-SKYE because

there can be no world in which both are town

.
There

is

waffling behind

which

is town.

But again.
You-Dunn pushing me as scum in spite of the actual facts and evidence suggesting otherwise, definitely does give credence to you being the scumteam.

[mastina]

Those walls seem more self-serving bad reasoning than game solving.

Then point to the fucking bad reasoning because they are plenty fucking logical with a sound process of deduction backing them.

You're actually projecting.

You're saying that I have bad reasoning, when your logic for me being scum relies entirely on it, and on ignoring ACTUAL logic and reasoning.

[mastina]

dunn, why didn't you seem to care at all the thomas wasn't saying anything?

A good question!
Also a good question: Why did Dunn not care to correct the multiple assertations by multiple people who assumed that his claim was Town Neighbor, with no extra PR behind it?

Also also a good question: Why did Dunnstral think that, after you claimed 1x alien and his role was allegedly roleblocked, that you were not the player who roleblocked him?

Also also also a good question: Why does Dunnstral still insist that your role is not a counterclaim to his role, in spite of all of the facts suggesting his claim and yours cannot both be town?

Suffice to say: Dunnstral's play does not reflect his role at all.

[mastina]

Also, setup spec-wise, MathBlade and TGP would also be on my side:
What point does a combined Doctor-Tracker serve to a scumteam? Absolutely none. There's no vig in this game, so the doctor half would see no use, and as far as roles to track go, the only claimed roles are Gypyx (which would just allow for Gypyx and I to mutually confirm each others' roleclaims but do nothing to confirm our alignments), a 1x alien, a loud odd-night alien, and a N2 cop. Tracking any of those does the scum no good. So the tracker does not help the scumteam and the doctor does not help the scumteam. From a setup spec point of view, combined doctor-tracker is a worthless, useless role.

What point does a combined Doctor-Tracker serve to the town? A whole bucketload. The doctor can stop nightkills, and by also tracking them, serve to help verify claims they make. If failing to stop the nightkill, the tracker half can serve to potentially catch the player who made it. A strong protective/investigative whose usage of one comes heavily at the cost of the other, but which can still see use regardless.


What point does one Alien (with modifiers) serve to the scumteam? A whole bunch. It can roleblock me, preventing my role from seeing use at least one night. It can also indirectly fuck with investigations, too. It doubles the chance of an investigation failing, by targeting an investigative role or by targeting the target of the investigative role.


My role makes no sense as a scum role but fits perfectly as a town role; an Alien being a scum role fits into the game perfectly.

[mastina]

(Beyond that. There's also the fact that this is the polar fucking opposite of my scumgame. I've had two years' worth of scumgames that I put zero effort into, that I was coasting by, doing nothing in the whole game. I also have two years' worth of towngames that I was just as active and gamesolvey as this one--I shouldn't fucking NEED to towncase myself here because I should, mechanically, be fucking town here, but I CAN towncase myself off of play and meta, too.)

[Dunnstral]

dunn, why didn't you seem to care at all the thomas wasn't saying anything?

If I had cared, I'd call him scummy for it and vote him out anyway. Or assume I was blocked, in which case it doesn't really matter for their alignment

[mastina]

(To give quick access to the micros I've played recently.
This one I died N1 and the day was ridiculously short, but you can see the solving.
This one I lived, and you can see the solving. I can also particularly point to mechanical gamesolvey posts like this one to show how I do solve off of game mechanics.

This was a scumgame. No solving.
Notice the contrast?)

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: mastina

[SKYEscrapers]

dunn how on earth can both of our claims be true?

[Dunnstral]

Alien isn't a very common role, so having someone else claim it seems more likely that the setup has two of the same role rather than you fake claimed alien randomly

[Dunnstral]

I will be targetting Gypyx tonight

[schadd_]

hi all. following night 1, i should have informed doubtingthomas that they were visited by dunnstral. that PM was not sent. i think it is most appropriate that this become public information. sorry for issues this has caused

[schadd_]

also as of this moment all votes are cleared

[Dunnstral]

VOTE: mastina

[SKYEscrapers]

hi all. following night 1, i should have informed doubtingthomas that they were visited by dunnstral. that PM was not sent. i think it is most appropriate that this become public information. sorry for issues this has caused

oh, that's unfortunate.

[SKYEscrapers]

well, obviously the loud part is true at least

[SKYEscrapers]

i am extremely torn right now. i'll try to make more sense of everything in the morning

[Akarin]

Mastina's strategy of winning the argument through being exhausting is shockingly effective when directed at me.

[Akarin]

Okay, SKYE, Gypyx, if either of you have anything you want me to address in Mastina's walls, quote it and I'll talk about it. Otherwise I'm just gonna ignore them and work on solving from earlier game stuff.

[Akarin]

Ari, could you please chime in at some point too?

(I assume this has all been tris)

[Akarin]

What sentance do you think your role matches to? Because i'm not seeing it

Pretty sure that's the how-long-to-trust-a-red-traffic-light sentence.

It seems inherently impossible to decide the appropriate amount of time to wait at midnight to assume that a traffic light is stuck on red and it is okay to ignore it.

And for reference:

On the plus side, I know exactly what sentence I am and it'll be obvious once I flip.