Open 822: Popcorn Mafia - Game Over!!

[Pavowski]

Hectic, at this point here's what I think you should do:

I'd make your case for why you think I'm a townlock (I'd do it but personally I never find that kind of stuff convincing coming from the person in question) and then just shoot Toog.

If he's scum (as seems likeliest to me) we win. If not, well, he's been calling for the gun so he can shoot his reads for the entire game, you'll know he's been acting in good faith, and we'll hope he'll take you in good faith too.

I do have nagging doubts that scum!Vulture could just be lurking at this point, but if that's the case I'll be counting on Toog to sniff that out.

Also, don't count me out of the pagetop race.

[ArcAngel9]

Vulture has been prodded.

[Vulture]

Sorry. I’ll give this my attention tonight after work. Pav towncase would be nice in the event I get shot because I’m pretty stuck on it being Toog but that’s like two weeks old. /shrug

More later.

[Pavowski]

I'm diving into ISOs on Toog and Vulture today since I have a bit of unexpected time.

Fresh eyes on this stuff given 3 scum flips should give us something, right?

Toog first since my guts and my current thinking on the game has me leaning there.

How about this:

Last thing I'm going to say is that I have a very slight suspicion that T3 scum slipped a partner, but I'd need T3 to flip scum first before I divulge my suspicion and why. If I had the gun, I'd just shoot T3 and then follow up with the second shot if I was right.

Followed by this:

Here is where I think T3 slipped his partner....

Players in order of readability:
Really easy: Lukewarm, marcistar
Also ez but slightly less: Pavowski, Toogeloo
I have some idea: Enchant, HockeyFan
Screw alts:

Hectic alt

, Galron, Vulture
OPENWOLF: NM

I had no idea that Art was Hectic's alt until Hectic officially replaced into the game. After he replaced in, I went and looked at Art's posting history. There is no reference that Art was Hectic there. So then I checked Hectic's posting history, and I went all the way back to the beginning of July (Art was born mid-July). There was no mention of an Art alt there. So how did T3 know that Art was Hectic's alt? An alt like that probably needs an ego post from it's main account in a private topic, especially for easier communicating.

My suspicion is Hectic made himself known in the mafia chat and T3 slipped that knowledge in the beginning of the game.

If I had the gun, Hectic would be my next shot.

My third suspect is Pavowski, which is more gut.

If this is scumtheatre, it's pretty good scumtheatre imo

[Pavowski]

He turns out to have missed the note on Hectic/Art there but I don't think that's the kind of mistake scum!Toog would make.

Then, there's the buddying with Luke:

Oh, and I like Luke for town. I'm pickin' up good vibrations, he's giving me excitations.

Luke is a saint though, and I would never shoot there.

I'm at Hectic + Enchant as well, and I've started coming around to Pav-town. I like your solve, Luke.

Yes I think enchant is scum, all I'm saying is I'd rather he not be the shot when it's do-or-die time. I'd rather settle Luke/hectic first then, assuming we get a red flip (although if both flipped green that's GG but I think that's near impossible), move on to the enchant question.

Of course that all comes down to Marci but them's my thoughts.

This reflects my thoughts exactly, though in my mind I've pretty much concluded that Enchant must be scum in any combination of remaining three. However I'm not willing to put what might be the final shot of the game in their hands.

I strongly feel Luke and Pavowski are town here, and think any shot outside these two has high scum equity.

Interestingly on the last 2, he switches from finding me scummy to finding me towny. So he's consistent on Luke, but he waffles on me.

[Pavowski]

Almost done:

Well, if I'm shot, I will be shooting Pav.

Meh. In all seriousness, the final scum is Hectic. I just wanted the chance to shoot him myself.

These are 5 posts apart, and one intervening post is his own.

And finally this:

Well, if you are going to hinge the whole game on, "As long as we don't shoot Pav," we're going to need to know exactly why.

There was a point in the game where some were saying I was 100% town and never should be shot, yet here we are.

I've made few missteps in this game, and been fooled by a read or two. Maybe you are a better judge than me. You should still do it because if you miss, the person taking the next shot should be at least understanding your reasoning.

Toog is all over the map with regards to me, which would feel like a flat-out towny thing to be, except for the earlier posts saying things like this:

Not gonna lie. My whole goal this game has been to get shot, and my posted reads aren't really things anyone should take seriously because I might do something completely different.

It's stuff like this that makes it impossible to give Toog a clean town read.

(Also I realized in this post I've been using "he" for Toog instead of "they", my apologies for that)

[Pavowski]

Closing thoughts on Toog:

Toog is very clearly cognizant of meta and common scum tells. For example, Toog references the rule of 3 a bit, and points out that Luke played into it:

My shoot recommendations are at

People I trust with a gun: Art and me

People that I think might flip scum : Hockey, T3, Marci

I'm townreading t3 which makes me nervous and makes me think I should be scum reading him.

If I read Marci on this game alone I'd peg her as scummy, but Marci here does not feel like scum!Marci as I've seen her. I dunno if I'd shoot there.

Hockey I'm not sure about. Initial impression was scummy but if he's scum it's a pretty lazy effort.

Ugh everybody alive has a 50/50 shot at being scum, do not like. Gonna review d1 when I get back to my laptop.

This was the post that I hated the most from Pav.

Interestingly, that quote capture by Luke does fulfill the rule of 3, lol.

But then there's this which, fits the rule of 3 for scum!Toog

I'm not willing to bet there is one scum in Hectic/Luke. My concern is that Marci shoots Hectic and he is town, and then he shoots Luke who is also town.

I've been toiling around with the possibility that the scum team is Enchant, Hockey, and Vulture for the past 24 hours.

I'd rather Marci shoot me then Hectic or Luke since I would probably shoot Enchant, then Hockey, and then hash out the final shot after that if I'm right.

I feel like I WIFOM myself right into the ground with everything in regards to Toog, but on balance after doing the ISO dive I'm less sold that Toog needs to be shot right here.

[Pavowski]

Vulture's ISO is harder for me to parse. A lot of it is asking questions rather than voicing opinions, which taken a certain way looks like good scumhunting. It's also a little hard to deal with the ISO since it's rare for Vulture to quote somebody, it's all just organic responses to recent posts in thread.

Then when Vulture does post takes and opinions it's often *very* hedgey (see 780, it's long so I'm not going to quote it here). I understand me calling out another player for hedging is pot+kettle to say the least, but it is what it is. In that post, though, we do get this:

In any case, I'm currently at Luke + Enchant + Pav / Toog (?)

which, A, breaks the rule of 3 (I pointed out earlier, why bus 2 scum partners at the same time?), and B, is in direct violation of how he thinks scum would be acting in this game:

Also, I disagree with the idea that scum are pushing their partners for cred. Why would they be pushing each other right now when they're close to winning and it's an easier path to just get some misshots versus cutting down their own numbers? Shrug emoji. Going off of this I then saw the 'oh I wanted the gun all game...' posting as WIFOM-y but I'm not 100% on Toog so shrug emoji again.

Of course, that too could be WIFOM -- posit a strategy the scum team "ought" to be following, then, as scum, do the opposite.

And then of course there's the whole withdrawing from game thing. I won't say this is definitive, that would be very risky. But: put RL aside (and I do hope everything is ok with Vulture right now, whatever the circumstances). Sometimes if scum is outnumbered by a lot the best thing to do is to sit back, say nothing, and let the louder/more active voices in the thread tear each other to pieces. As Toog has pointed out, at this point in the game, scum has to avoid getting shot twice. Lying low is probably a decent enough way to dodge the first bullet.

[Pavowski]

Congrats Hectic, I tried to help and talked myself right back into almost a 50/50 again, you can thank me later.

Actually I might -- *might* -- lean more toward shooting the bird right this very minute. But I would wait til they posted more tonight, if I were you, to see their take on where we're at right now.

And if he doesn't, make with the pew pew

[Toogeloo]

(Also I realized in this post I've been using "he" for Toog instead of "they", my apologies for that)

My pronoun is actually, "He," but I have, "They," listed as a reminder to myself to use They/Them on anyone I'm not familiar with as I feel it is less likely to unintentionally insult another user.

I made a joke in a previous game that my pronoun could be, "asshat," for all I cared, and someone jokingly said that they would be using that for me from now on.

----

I think the way scum behave earlier in the game is more important than how they behave at the end of the game. I feel this is true in every game of Mafia, and not just this game. Scum will change their play to be fluid with the state of the game. Granted, town will change their reads when they get new information, so playing different is NAI, but scum will have developed strategies such as bussing teammate and pocketing town as the game unfolds.

Only the beginning of the game and early reads and statements feel like the most genuine way to find deepwolf scum

[Pavowski]

That's interesting. So how do you read Vulture and me based on beginning and early statements?

[Toogeloo]

So, honestly, I've been too busy this week to do reviews on anyone. The only thing I remember strongly was having you as a scum read early and feeling as though Vulture was in the PoE by mid to endgame.

[Pavowski]

I suggest you shoot Galron Art or Vulture unless someone develops a strong opinion against that.

Hmm

[Pavowski]

Ya know Luke said it before Hockey shot his face off but I am really curious why Marci was confident Vulture was scum.

[Toogeloo]

One of the things that makes me nervous about you Pav is how little you participated in the first few days and how much of the reins you have taken in the back few days.

Vulture being silent is just as bad for me though. Like, if I get shot maybe they just hope I shoot you since it was the last thing I said I would do.

[Pavowski]

That's kinda my playstyle, though. In the beginning I'm always nervous to express reads and get involved, so I hang back more. (This may be why I get scumread a lot.) The longer I survive the more I come on.

Pretty sure that's true for all my games on site, as scum and town, so *shrug*

[Pavowski]

I also don't love it when games go quiet so I just start spouting, lol.

[Toogeloo]

Town: Pav, Hockey, Luke
Lean town: Toog, Enchant
Null: Vulture
Lean scum: marci
Scum: Art
I think I forgot someone but I forgot who.

Does T3 town read all his partners? Something interesting about this is that earlier in T3's iso, is that he heavily cases and metadives Vulture, even indicating possible scum reads. Why is the slot listed null. I might need to go back and reread the whole interaction that goes from scum!vulture posts earlier to null: vulture.

If it's not Vulture, then T3 put every partner in a town read category.

[Toogeloo]

Yeah, I'm moving soon, so I've been doing a lot of packing and house work to setup showing for my current home, and the market is ridiculous right now, so when I'm not working, I'm doing other things.
Plus my kids just started school, and I've had to do a lot of things for them.

I'm so ready for the calm to return.

[Toogeloo]

Lean Town
Hectic
Enchant

Nullish
Togg
Vulture
Hockey (^^)

Lean Scum
Pav (v v)
Marci
T3

Does Luke list two scum when Galron first gets the gun?

[Toogeloo]

I think I've convinced myself that I'm good with a Vulture shot.

[Pavowski]

Yeah, I'm moving soon, so I've been doing a lot of packing and house work to setup showing for my current home, and the market is ridiculous right now, so when I'm not working, I'm doing other things.
Plus my kids just started school, and I've had to do a lot of things for them.

I'm so ready for the calm to return.

Spoiler:

Oof, I went through that a few years ago, so I feel your pain.

Lean Town
Hectic
Enchant

Nullish
Togg
Vulture
Hockey (^^)

Lean Scum
Pav (v v)
Marci
T3

Does Luke list two scum when Galron first gets the gun?

Obviously my PoV is different from yours. From where I stand there's 1 scumpartner in each category, and that feels very Luke to me.

[Pavowski]

Town: Pav, Hockey, Luke
Lean town: Toog, Enchant
Null: Vulture
Lean scum: marci
Scum: Art
I think I forgot someone but I forgot who.

Does T3 town read all his partners? Something interesting about this is that earlier in T3's iso, is that he heavily cases and metadives Vulture, even indicating possible scum reads. Why is the slot listed null. I might need to go back and reread the whole interaction that goes from scum!vulture posts earlier to null: vulture.

If it's not Vulture, then T3 put every partner in a town read category.

That does seem pretty bold.

[Toogeloo]

Yeah, I'm fine with Vulture being shot. If Hectic truly fears I'm scum, he can shoot me, and then I'll shoot Vulture.

[Pavowski]

VOTE: Vulture

Put this game to bed, Mario