Newbie 2082 - Game Over

[StrangeMatter]

I'm 99% certain now with Implosion coming out that I was the target last night for the NK.

[Andante]

catboi looking to throw sus on me now all of a sudden is suspicious

[implosion]

So thinking a bit more about mechanics if we flip a goon...

If we flip a goon, me/SM/catboi are clear. If I announce my target in advance to be someone not-igor, then igor can track someone else. I'm obviously scum's best kill because they have to kill a clear and I'm the power role that's clear. If igor gets a result, then we get a third clear in 5p and we win. If igor claims blocked, then the person I jailkept is cleared (because they can't have both blocked me and blocked igor).

If we flip a roleblocker, me/igor are clear. We target different people. If I die then both of our targets will be cleared (or igor will get a guilty) and we'll have 3 clears in 5p which is a win. If igor dies then my target is clear, we have 2 clears and a jailkeeper in 5p which is a win. In either case the

only

important thing is that we target different players. So I just want to make sure igor is on the same page, to make the plan as simple as possible (note that this overrides what I said earlier):

igor: if we eliminate scum today

, I will target Val no matter what (this is assuming we aren't limming him today). I want you to target either frogs or Andante (whoever we didn't eliminate) no matter what. Please explicitly acknowledge this.

If we don't eliminate scum today, I think it's best not to claim targets in advance (there is some benefit to it but there's also some downside), so ignore this if we eliminate town.

[igorsprite]

igor: if we eliminate scum today

, I will target Val no matter what (this is assuming we aren't limming him today). I want you to target either frogs or Andante (whoever we didn't eliminate) no matter what. Please explicitly acknowledge this.

oke

[catboi]

catboi looking to throw sus on me now all of a sudden is suspicious

I'd have hammered you when you were at E-1 if I were scum, pony

[implosion]

Idk, my inclination right now is generally that I don't really trust associative that highly in a game like this. I don't really see what's particularly townish about Andante's play so far; the coming in without knowledge thing isn't something I buy as a tell in either direction, I don't see anything from her that doesn't look fakeable by someone replacing in. Frogs feels generally more earnest than she does or mafmen did (not that i'd expect her to be like super earnest on replace in but she kind of gives off the vibe of wanting to appear earnest and idk i'm rambling now but you get the point).

[catboi]

Idk, my inclination right now is generally that I don't really trust associative that highly in a game like this. I don't really see what's particularly townish about Andante's play so far; the coming in without knowledge thing isn't something I buy as a tell in either direction, I don't see anything from her that doesn't look fakeable by someone replacing in. Frogs feels generally more earnest than she does or mafmen did (not that i'd expect her to be like super earnest on replace in but she kind of gives off the vibe of wanting to appear earnest and idk i'm rambling now but you get the point).

I literally just came to the same conclusion as you the page before this, Lmao. In particular frogs made a post that'd be fairly difficult for newb-scum to fake and Andante's maneuvering is fairly reactive and the immediate reads all feel like a need to show off ~being here~ and ~doing things~ even if it's shallow.

Feel free to take the wheel here.

[catboi]

Well, not difficult, but

unlikely

[catboi]

but also i need sleep nao

[implosion]

VOTE: Andante

I am going to be like,

mega

sad if you are scum btw catboi. I know if you're town this is useless to hear but if you are scum i just want you to feel bad for how painfully you're outplaying me.

I'm more or less ready for day to end when others are. Ofc people don't have to sheep me or anything but I feel like this is just the lim that feels least likely to misfire, and it felt that way yesterday too.

[Micc]

Votecount 3.03

Andante (2) -

Val89, implosion

Val89 (1) -

frogsfrogs

Not Voting (4) -

StrangeMatter, Andante, catboi, igorsprite

With 7 players alive it takes 4 votes to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 3 is in (expired on 2021-11-22 09:10:00).

[StrangeMatter]

I don't have have much faith in associations for catching scum right now. In all of my experience playing Mafia, only once off website has it worked out.

[Val89]

Someone check my work here, please.

MafMen can only be town in the following circumstances:

{Frogs, Val} are the scum team (with either as the RBer)
{Val!RB, SM!Goon}
{Val!RB, Catboi!Goon}
{Frogs!RB, SM!Goon}
{Frogs!RB, Catboi!Goon}
Or, it's a double-goon set up, and we are being lied to by Igor.

There are no other combinations I've missed there, have I?

Perhaps associations aren't entirely reliable, particulary given I think there has to be at least

some

attempt at distancing going on somewhere; but we DO have mechanically confirmed information here. Andante needs to be read in place of MafMen in that list now obviously, but I assume given nobody has said otherwise, I am confident I'm not missing any potential teams there.

From my perspective, and I know this is purely from my perspective, and everyone else needs to evalute this information through the lens of me potentially misleading you, the top three are also

mechanically

excluded, by my role PM.

The last is

technically

possible; but the number of stars that would have to have aligned for it to work - Igor as newscum taking the huge and obvious risk of fakeclaiming early on D1 when they weren't under significant preasure, getting lucky and hitting the 1/3 change the tracker claim didn't get CCd straight away, the JK deciding not to lock up the tracker claim, and then that Igor!Goon team trying to hit the actual JK target in catboi, and then a goon!Igor going straight into D2 drawing more attention to himself with fake guilties on said NK target; it's just so unbeleivable to me as to consider it it entirely neglibable, and essentially ruled out also.

So that leaves the only situautions Andante can be town from my perspective as {Frogs!RB, SM!Goon} or {Frogs!RB, Catboi!Goon}. The latter looks about as likley to me as Me and Catboi, and, yes, that is assocatives, but I'm trusting that one enough to rule it out also. That leaves the ONLY way Adante is flipping green today for me is if the team is exactly {Frogs!RB, SM!Goon}.

That one is a possibility; but I still maintain it makes much more sense for a scum!Frogs, being informed that the scrap he was seeing on D1 between me and Greeting was town versus town, then uses that information to take a side and push one or the other of us to a mislim, particulary with Greeting making it easier with the self-hammer threat, than announce to us it

is

TvT and then only pivot on his read on me D3. I am judging what I am seeing from frogs in the last page of two is a newbtown shitting the bed just as we had our likley RBer ready to flip rather than scum making a play.

In short, it is going to take a hell of a lot to convince me to move my vote off Andante today.

[StrangeMatter]

Why are you gunning for my elimination anyways? Also, Val89 what is your current opinion of my slot?

Please answer this.

[Val89]

Were you talking to me with that first question? I think it's clear I am not.

My opinion on your slot is that I think you are the the most likley candidate as Goon to Andantes RBer, or if I am wrong and it does turn out to be frogs, then you are the goon through PoE - but you are the goon at worse, so I won't be arguing for your elimination today in any case.

I never really paid much attention to your slot at all D2, given I figured pretty early that you were the 'Secret PR read' that Catboi was refering to D2, even before attention was drawn to the 'PR soft' that turned out not to be one, because you were one of the few slots he didn't point the FoS at, and how deferential he was being to your slot compared to others when questioned.

As you know, I spent all of yesterday utterly convinced that catboi was scum, and that he had spewed you town by the above, and so I didn't pay all that much attention to you. I tried to leave the door open to the possibility I might have been the JK in my 734 in order perhaps to leave some doubt and just possibly draw the NK, but I had to abandon that once implosion, who I was always reading as town apart from that gut reaction right at the start, voted me and I decided the best course of action was to get hammered by Igor, deprive scum of historically favoured game-winning mislim material and hope people would take my catboi read more seriously after seeing my town flip; but in order for that to be a possibility I had to out as VT.

I was working on the assumption that catboi was right, and you were in fact the JK, or even if not you had been spewed as town by a scum!catboi because he did genuiningly believe that, but I recognised if catboi was both town, and wrong, then I didn't actually have any reason to townread you and you were a likley candidate for lurk-scum; which is what I was refering to here:

and even in the unlikley event of a town!catboi, then that gives me something on the SM slot in particular that I think we need to know today

I had a very light townlean on the previous occupant of your slot and pretty much nothing on you personally but I wasn't that bothered about it because I thought you had been spewed town anyway. That's still essentially where I am with you now. I haven't seen anything overtly scummy, but I don't see much reason to townread you either, and there isn't much left in the PoE, except maybe Andante-Catboi, where you aren't the goon. If you aren't scum, I imagine it's going to be frustrating for you to be read as such by PoE when it wasn't exactly your fault your alignment wasn't much examined yesterday, but that's where I am.

[StrangeMatter]

I wasn't talking to you about that first question.

But here I have some thoughts I want to say; people have been shading Igor's slot and suggesting he might be lying (which is entirely possible), and playing around with that in mind. My problem is it's the type of stuff that I can see mafia throwing into a game to keep their options open and have as a target. Looking through this, I think if anyone in the past shading Igor flips red, Igor is going to be town.

[Val89]

What are your thoughts on MafMen/Andante, and frogs, Strangematter?

[Andante]

What are your thoughts on MafMen/Andante

Town

[Andante]

In short, it is going to take a hell of a lot to convince me to move my vote off Andante today.

That's a really sad thing to say, "a hell of a lot" to convince you, you say? I don't really have that much effort in me, but you're most likely scum anyways, so there's that

I believe catboi and strange are most likely town, they could've easily voted me off when I was e-1, so I tr them, we have igor and implosion pr, and whoever is left is in the pool I think is maf. this game is way too easy.

[Andante]

Val and frogs scum. gg easy. I solved the game on page 48

[Andante]

didn't even need any of the other 44 pages!!

[Andante]

If we don't eliminate scum today

Voting me won't help achieve that goal

[implosion]

I believe catboi and strange are most likely town, they could've easily voted me off when I was e-1, so I tr them, we have igor and implosion pr, and whoever is left is in the pool I think is maf. this game is way too easy.

golly this sure doesn't convince me.

[Andante]

I believe catboi and strange are most likely town, they could've easily voted me off when I was e-1, so I tr them, we have igor and implosion pr, and whoever is left is in the pool I think is maf. this game is way too easy.

golly this sure doesn't convince me.

you sure? implosion... fam.. I am as green as your name. I am town.
(maybe that was more convincing ._.)

[StrangeMatter]

What are your thoughts on MafMen/Andante, and frogs, Strangematter?

A bit lazy with this post but...

Frogsfrogs I feel like his ISO has a lot of analysis for this game which I know leads to solving, but then there's the horrible gut feeling I get from the fact he agreed with so much of what I've said. It's much like catboi appealing to me at one point in this game in a very exaggerated and desperate manner. Of course, it's a lot more subtle and that's what irks me about it. I find often that Mafia does things that are subtle, especially when a player had specifically been silently shading my slot before (I was a confirmed town) as it being Godfather.

Andante/Mafmen's as of right now I don't have much to say about MafMen other than him feeling pretty genuine in some of his posts that I feel comes from town, but Andante's posts really aren't very good. Such as #1176 where it is just OMGUS, and I don't see how that's suspicious at all and is just completely normal, and NAI.