Open 391 - Theft on Cookie Island - Town Wins

[AcRv]

Assuming scum lynch today:
Day 3 ends: 8 people (1 scum, 7 town)
Night 3 ends: 7 people (1 scum, 6 town)
Day 5: Nowhere near LyLo

See?

Yes, but we've got a 50/50 of losing if we do that. I'm not a fan of that sort of risk if we don't need to. Both Thomith and Sando have said things that have made me think they're lying, and unless one is CLEARLY town or CLEARLY scum, then I'm not going to take that risk.

[Chrimi]

But Thomith is CLEARLY scum D:

[Sando]

50/50? If I'm scum and we lynch cop-Thomith today, in 2 days time then 4 people will be alive, AcRv, FuD, Chrimi, PM, and one will be scum. That's not an instant loss.

If you can't work out why, you're not thinking this through hard enough and should not be blindly following plans...

Everyone - assuming I find RD innocent what will you do tomorrow if Thomith claims innocent on FuD?
Everyone - assuming I find RD innocent what will you do tomorrow if Thomith claims guilty on FuD?

[Rainbowdash]

50/50? If I'm scum and we lynch cop-Thomith today, in 2 days time then 4 people will be alive, AcRv, FuD, Chrimi, PM, and one will be scum. That's not an instant loss.

Thats not a situation I want to be in though. Really its AcRv and three lynch baits.

Everyone - assuming I find RD innocent what will you do tomorrow if Thomith claims innocent on FuD?
Everyone - assuming I find RD innocent what will you do tomorrow if Thomith claims guilty on FuD?

Not answering. There is a complex forced win in there depending on what result Thomith-scum gives.

[Sando]

Oh well a plan that you can't explain because it isn't a forced win if scum react a certain way sounds like a great forced win plan...

[AcRv]

50/50? If I'm scum and we lynch cop-Thomith today, in 2 days time then 4 people will be alive, AcRv, FuD, Chrimi, PM, and one will be scum. That's not an instant loss.

Thats not a situation I want to be in though. Really its AcRv and three lynch baits.

Yeah, and that's not going to end well... I mean, I'm good at not getting mislynched, but not so much at identifying scum.

As for Sando's post itself, I just noticed something... he ignored this.

Assuming mislynch lynch today:
Day 3 ends: 7 people (2 scum, 5 town)
Night 3 ends: 6 people (2 scum, 4 town)
Day 4: We lose.

Assming no lynch today:
Day 3 ends: 8 people (2 scum, 6 town)
Night 3 ends: 7 people (2 scum, 5 town)
Day 4: It's LyLo

... If we lynch Thomith-cop like he said, then we hit the part where it says "assuming we mislynch"... something's not right about trying to cover up the "we lose" thing and then calling the lynch he supported "Thomith-cop" instead of "Thomith-scum".

[Sando]

What post of mine are you talking about? I didn't ignore it, you're showing that we can mislynch once in both circumstances, I stated that myself.

[Rainbowdash]

Oh well a plan that you can't explain because it isn't a forced win if scum react a certain way sounds like a great forced win plan...

But.... if Thomith picks wrong as scum. We win.

Im working it out on my desk. Either you (the nail clippers) and FD (the bowl of runts candy) get lynched for town win or Thomith (The Taco Bell hot sauce) gets lynched with either PM (The Bobblehead) or Chrimi (The Safeway Reciept) get lynched for town win.

Actually its simple enough to just say if Thomith claims a guilty

We lynch the Taco Bell Hot Sauce. If its scum, we can lynch the Bobblehead and Reciept at will since we have the time to since we lose on the second, not first mislynch. If the Hot Sauce is town the candy and nail clippers die back to back since Rainbowdash (The Rainbow Dash figure) and AcRv (The quarter) are town either way.

BASICALLY

Tonight we force clear me and FD. Scum fakes a guilty and they get caught.

[Sando]

So anyone guilties we lynch the cop with the result. Both claim guilty we lynch either cop, doesn't matter.

So innocents from both is the only viable scum-option from either of us. Town still don't know who between Chrimi/PM/AcRv is scum, and town don't know between Sando/Thomith, and there's no way to get that information through investigations.

[AcRv]

So anyone guilties we lynch the cop with the result. Both claim guilty we lynch either cop, doesn't matter.

So innocents from both is the only viable scum-option from either of us.

Town still don't know who between Chrimi/PM/AcRv is scum

, and town don't know between Sando/Thomith, and there's no way to get that information through investigations.

... I thought you said I was innocent

[Sando]

So anyone guilties we lynch the cop with the result. Both claim guilty we lynch either cop, doesn't matter.

So innocents from both is the only viable scum-option from either of us.

Town still don't know who between Chrimi/PM/AcRv is scum

, and town don't know between Sando/Thomith, and there's no way to get that information through investigations.

... I thought you said I was innocent

You don't know that I'm cop, so town can't clear you.

[Thomith]

how does that make sense sando, as people are treating ac as clear anyway?

[AcRv]

Look at the diagram Sando! I'm the quarter, remember? The quarter and the $8.99 figurine are both town.

[Om of the Nom]

Ooohh, what item am I?

[Sando]

Look at the diagram Sando! I'm the quarter, remember? The quarter and the $8.99 figurine are both town.

This one?

Actually its simple enough to just say if Thomith claims a guilty

We lynch the Taco Bell Hot Sauce. If its scum, we can lynch the Bobblehead and Reciept at will since we have the time to since we lose on the second, not first mislynch. If the Hot Sauce is town the candy and nail clippers die back to back since Rainbowdash (The Rainbow Dash figure) and AcRv (The quarter) are town either way.

The hint is in the first sentence... RD is addressing what happens if Thomith claims guilty, I agreed with her. Thomith would claim guilty on FD, either he's cop and it's Sando/FD pairing, or he's scum and it's Thomith + PM/Chrimi. You are 100% confirmed town IF Thomith claims a guilty.

[AcRv]

Well, if he has an inno I'm not 100% confirmed admitedly, but Rainbowdash has explained the town read multiple times to which you never objected the logic of.

[Sando]

Well, if he has an inno I'm not 100% confirmed admitedly, but Rainbowdash has explained the town read multiple times to which you never objected the logic of.

Why would I reject the logic of it? I know you're town!

So now we're going from a game-breaking auto-win plan to one where you've got Chrimi/PM and Sando/Thomith to pick between, and AcRv presumed innocent due to some town-tells... All because you can't bring yourself to realise that Thomiths claim is laughably bogus.

Unless RD is scum, I can 100% guarantee that Thomith will find FuD innocent, so:
AcRv - unconfirmed
FuD - Town
RD - Town
Chrimi - unconfirmed
PM - unconfirmed
Thomith - unconfirmed
Sando - unconfirmed

Hey cool we've got no way to guarantee a win at this point.

Under the plan that happens tomorrow, we lynch one of Chrimi/PM, it doesn't matter which, me and Thomith investigate the other one. Both of us will claim either a guilty on the person or innocent=AcRv-scum, so we have a result. At that point you have to decide which of the cops is scum.

That is the only none-auto-loss option for scum, so unless FuD or RD are scum or we hit scum in Chrimi/PM it WILL happen, and you WILL have to pick between me and Thomith at Lylo.

Why not just do that now when you're not at lylo?

[AcRv]

Let's say we lynch Manhattan or Chrimi and we're wrong, and Ommy doesn't prevent a kill -

Assuming mislynch lynch today:
Day 3 ends: 7 people (2 scum, 5 town)
Night 3 ends: 6 people (2 scum, 4 town)
Day 4: We lose.

If we wait we'll have the investigation results, which will give us a better idea of what to do.

[Rainbowdash]

Why not just do that now when you're not at lylo?

Because stalling on a no lynch still doesnt have us in a lylo situation, while it 100% removes me (and probably FD) from the equation of even possibly being scum.

At that point we step in and probably lynch Thomith after I get to make a probably pointless arguement of which of the you-PM and you-Chrimi pairing makes more sense since if Thomith is the cop im obviously getting killed over FD and AcRv there. My biggest problem is that I cannot call anypony but AcRv town if you are scum here.

In the offchance that you are playing correctly as scum, im not going to give you a cakewalk, you are going to have to deal with FD being taken off the table first.

If Thomith is scum, we lynch him tomorrow and we can easily clean up Chrimi/PM for a win. Stalling does nothing but adds another safety net, just incase.

[Sando]

RD - do you agree that unless you or FuD are scum and therefore someone claims a guilty (or stupid scum claim a guilty), we are guaranteed to end up in this situation tomorrow?

AcRv - unconfirmed
FuD - Town
RD - Town
Chrimi - unconfirmed
PM - unconfirmed
Thomith - unconfirmed
Sando - unconfirmed

Who do you lynch?

[Om of the Nom]

Lynch everyone.

[Chrimi]

This is what we do:
ISO Sando and Thomith

Whichever you think is scummier, vote them.

We NEED to choose between them, because one of them is scum. It should be fairly obvious which is and isn't lying.

[Rainbowdash]

RD - do you agree that unless you or FuD are scum and therefore someone claims a guilty (or stupid scum claim a guilty), we are guaranteed to end up in this situation tomorrow?

AcRv - unconfirmed
FuD - Town
RD - Town
Chrimi - unconfirmed
PM - unconfirmed
Thomith - unconfirmed
Sando - unconfirmed

Who do you lynch?

Well we have two 1v1s... so lynching anypony there technically catches scum either through lynch or POE.

Again, my thing is you are playing exactly, 100% how I would be playing as scum from your spot. I do side with you being more likely scum, but I want to be as sure as posible. No lynching first confirms me and probably FD as town, and catches a you-FD pairing if thats what we are dealing with.

Seriously, worst case its two different 1v1 pairings tomorrow. Best case its game over.

[Sando]

That worst case scenario will happen tomorrow... surely you can see that as cop-Sando, I KNOW Thomith will give an innocent no matter who he investigates, and you're insanely close to confirmed to me.

Your two 1v1s are predicated on the read that AcRv is town, while I agree with him being town, why are you advocating a complex plan that involves eliminating someone due to a town-read (as opposed to guaranteed things like investigations), all to avoid making a decision on the cops,

that you will have to make anyway

??!?!?!

It makes no sense. One of those 1v1s that you're so blasé about is between me and Thomith, yet apparently tomorrow or the day after it'll be easier to make?

But I'm kinda done arguing against this plan, it's like beating my head against a wall. I know AcRv is town, leaving RD as my investigate tonight, as long as you pick right between Thomith and me town win.

[Rainbowdash]

That worst case scenario will happen tomorrow... surely you can see that as cop-Sando, I KNOW Thomith will give an innocent no matter who he investigates, and you're insanely close to confirmed to me.

If Thomith is scum its a really easy forced win in this 'worst case' since he is probably getting lynched tomorrow, or saves the game with the guilty if he is the cop and its you-FD

We lynch Tomith, if he is scum we can lynch wrong first out of PM/Chrimi and still win.

Your two 1v1s are predicated on the read that AcRv is town, while I agree with him being town, why are you advocating a complex plan that involves eliminating someone due to a town-read (as opposed to guaranteed things like investigations), all to avoid making a decision on the cops,

that you will have to make anyway

??!?!?!

This is simply playing it safe.

IF you are scum, you are playing the correct way by countering, and I am responding by making the play where if you are scum I steal the FD mislynch away from you.

It makes no sense. One of those 1v1s that you're so blasé about is between me and Thomith, yet apparently tomorrow or the day after it'll be easier to make?

Yes. It will be easier because again, we are wrong and its still a F3 1v1, not a F3 with FD-PM-Chrimi all unconfirmed.

But I'm kinda done arguing against this plan, it's like beating my head against a wall. I know AcRv is town, leaving RD as my investigate tonight, as long as you pick right between Thomith and me town win.

I know. I fully plan to lynch Thomith tomorrow. Today though I am making sure that we leave ourselves in a semi-decent position if you are scum. A lot of it is that you are making the correct play as scum (or town) so im wary of everything. Especially given how much stuff still swung towards Thomith post my cop thing.