Mafiascum.net

In post 1199, Sakura Hana wrote: I don't see why you'd want my thoughts of your read on me, only thing i'd be thinking would be "Why after so many posts someone still can't sort me?", tho if you're paranoid because you can't tell then i'd understand that.

That's kind of it. It's a bit like abbott where, as I noted around 300 posts in (I believe) I still didn't have a single post of his that I felt was worthy of comment. You're kind of the same way. You decently back up your argument regarding replacements and their likelihood of being scum (I don't think it's a great one but you defend it decently) and overall your hammer gambit felt roughly pro-town, but that's not exactly an impossible gambit to fake as scum. And although you've been posting more content than abbott I can never quite pin you down, which really concerns me.

In post 1199, Sakura Hana wrote: I liked his reactions when he was under pressure, and his reactions to the fake hammer, and i've also liked his latest posts.

What about his latest posts have you liked? His eagerness for a hammer, for instance, has done anything but give me good vibes. What was good about his fake-hammer reactions? How did you feel about his earlier posts while he was under pressure, which definitely were survivalist?

Also, I know you think nacho's town, and you've played a decent amount of games with him, and you've said you have him as town for meta reasons. What about his play thus far meshes with his pro-town meta in your opinion?

In post 1200, Hayate Yagami wrote:What about his latest posts have you liked? His eagerness for a hammer, for instance, has done anything but give me good vibes. What was good about his fake-hammer reactions? How did you feel about his earlier posts while he was under pressure, which definitely were survivalist?

his eagerness for hammer just shows that he's tired of how this day keeps going on and on and on, it shows he's being affected by apathy, which is scum's weapon (scum would just keep silent overall and let town fall into apathy instead).
Idk, it's kinda hard to describe, probably some kind of gut feeling from his posts right after the fake-hammer, if he was scum that was partners with pisskop he would be trying to stay away in silence, if he was scum that isnt partner with pisskop he'd be trying to blame a mislynch on me, but his reaction of "WTF DID JUST HAPPEN" felt more townish to me.
Newbtown tends to act more survivalist, i'd expect newbscum to self-hammer to end discussion OR fake claim a PR to draw the actual PR.

In post 1200, Hayate Yagami wrote:Also, I know you think nacho's town, and you've played a decent amount of games with him, and you've said you have him as town for meta reasons. What about his play thus far meshes with his pro-town meta in your opinion?

His love of pushing lurkers, his ability to find genuinity transparency and form a decent sized townbloc quick PoEing scum outta it, I'd only be worried about him if by D3 we haven't lynched scum AND he's still alive.

Also I like how you're interacting with me to sort me out since I never had a chance to interact with LMB, so that's working out for both at least.

In post 1201, Sakura Hana wrote: his eagerness for hammer just shows that he's tired of how this day keeps going on and on and on, it shows he's being affected by apathy, which is scum's weapon (scum would just keep silent overall and let town fall into apathy instead).

I'd agree with this a bit more if it felt like the day was lagging and no content was being generated. But discussions are happening, people are posting content, and he still seems to be pushing for a hammer? It feels less like apathy and more like an attempt to shut down discussion to me, honestly.

How do you feel about the case I made earlier, which is more focused on his votes and reads? What flaws do you see in it?

In post 1201, Sakura Hana wrote:Newbtown tends to act more survivalist, i'd expect newbscum to self-hammer to end discussion OR fake claim a PR to draw the actual PR.

How do you think that meshes with #608, where his attitude is suddenly the opposite: "Oh, lynch me, whatever?" In retrospect this feels kind of weird; ika pressures him to not act survivalistically, and thus instead he switches to the opposite?

Also, yeah. LMB was really kind of passive in his scumhunting, and that's not an attitude I'm going to take; I feel like getting out active feelers is a much better strategy on both ends.

In post 1189, emeraldemon wrote: I've put a lot of thought into it anyway, and the answer I get out is "probably scum". It's hard for me to argue with him for townreading me since in my mind all my posts are town, but that doesn't stop me from being suspicious about it, and specifically about him not responding to my scumreading of him, or him not being paranoid of me as scum when I just tricked him as scum last game. And in general his reads have felt suspiciously constant, pushing the same cases basically the whole day. Of course town can do this also, but I think maybe town is less worried about being self-consistent. And being fluid and open to new information is something that's hard for scum to fake I think, so they may compensate by tunneling more.

This is definitely the best case on Tier I've seen thus far this game, I think. I still feel like I can see pro-town thought processes in Tier's posts and Tier's thoughts echo mine at some junctures which I always perceive as a slight town read, but your logic is still decent.

Which then begs the question... given this, why are you still voting pisskop? What would it take for you to change your vote?

Tier- Come out and play, if you would. You think bcj is scum. Why? Who do you think is a likely scumbuddy? How do you feel about this counter-wagon being made on you? Do you think it's scumdriven?

This day has gone on for a long ass time and I think we've had two deadline extensions/deadline counter stoppages so yeah I'm pretty exhausted with this day. The near-constant replacing is tiring, too.

In post 1204, Hayate Yagami wrote:How do you think that meshes with #608, where his attitude is suddenly the opposite: "Oh, lynch me, whatever?" In retrospect this feels kind of weird; ika pressures him to not act survivalistically, and thus instead he switches to the opposite?

Hmm... actually now that you mention it, it feels quite odd, when I came in bjc was already getting pressured anyhow and i just thought that if he was scum he would have self-hammered or claimed PR, what do you think about him wanting to get hammered instead of just ending the discussion himself right there? Maybe because ika was pressuring him and i was scumreading ika at the time (and im still on the null-scum realm for that slot, not in so much as TS or kop tho).

TS > kop interaction could be buddying tho.

In post 1206, Sakura Hana wrote:

In post 1204, Hayate Yagami wrote:How do you think that meshes with #608, where his attitude is suddenly the opposite: "Oh, lynch me, whatever?" In retrospect this feels kind of weird; ika pressures him to not act survivalistically, and thus instead he switches to the opposite?

Hmm... actually now that you mention it, it feels quite odd, when I came in bjc was already getting pressured anyhow and i just thought that if he was scum he would have self-hammered or claimed PR, what do you think about him wanting to get hammered instead of just ending the discussion himself right there? Maybe because ika was pressuring him and i was scumreading ika at the time (and im still on the null-scum realm for that slot, not in so much as TS or kop tho).

TS > kop interaction could be buddying tho.

I feel like you just claimed scum here.

In post 1207, fferyllt wrote:

In post 1206, Sakura Hana wrote:

In post 1204, Hayate Yagami wrote:How do you think that meshes with #608, where his attitude is suddenly the opposite: "Oh, lynch me, whatever?" In retrospect this feels kind of weird; ika pressures him to not act survivalistically, and thus instead he switches to the opposite?

Hmm... actually now that you mention it, it feels quite odd, when I came in bjc was already getting pressured anyhow and i just thought that if he was scum he would have self-hammered or claimed PR, what do you think about him wanting to get hammered instead of just ending the discussion himself right there? Maybe because ika was pressuring him and i was scumreading ika at the time (and im still on the null-scum realm for that slot, not in so much as TS or kop tho).

TS > kop interaction could be buddying tho.

I feel like you just claimed scum here.

If you did then your feelings are off

Well, it's you who claimed you can read me when I replaced in. If you've got me null-scum then why the hell aren't you trying to sort me?

In post 1209, fferyllt wrote:Well, it's you who claimed you can read me when I replaced in. If you've got me null-scum then why the hell aren't you trying to sort me?

Well then why do you think kop is town? Because I still find his flop on TS way too awkward...

In post 1206, Sakura Hana wrote: Hmm... actually now that you mention it, it feels quite odd, when I came in bjc was already getting pressured anyhow and i just thought that if he was scum he would have self-hammered or claimed PR, what do you think about him wanting to get hammered instead of just ending the discussion himself right there?

But then why doesn't the same apply to pisskop, who got up to L-1 and claimed VT? If Pisskop was scum, wouldn't they just self-hammer/claim PR? Your logic to clear bcj logically should also be used to clear your top scum suspect, which feels weird.

Also, I could see it a couple ways; he could be scum resigned to his fate but not wanting to self-hammer for whatever reason (because he feels like it's playing against his wincon, etc.) and hope that this resigned bluff would be enough to, at the very least, stall the wagon. But then, I'm not a mind-reader. Heck, he could have been caught-scum that just didn't think to self-hammer. Who knows.

I think that ffery raises a good point, and I dislike that instead of actually explaining her actions and why she hasn't put effort into sorting her thus far, Sakura just leaps to do what ffery says that town-her should be doing.

Why weren't you putting more effort into sorting ffery? Looking, you hadn't asked her a single question all game or really attempted to start a back and forth with her; wouldn't that be beneficial in trying to figure her out?

I'm just going to say I derped and forgot all about trying to sort ffery

Buncha reasons. The pure openness of his posts. He claimed VT. He looks like he's genuinely paranoia-filled scumhunting.

Also, I almost replaced into that slot. pisskop beat my by 4 minutes. That was probably the 4 minutes I spent reading his predecessor's handful of posts. And I got a lost-town-doesn't-know-what-to-do feel from them. When I caught up, I read through all that stuff about the statistics of newbie replace outs, but statistics don't trump the vibe I get from somebody's posts. And I have never been mistaken about the alignment of someone who actually posted that I've considered replacing. It's not a trust tell, because I don't always review posts before I replace in. And even when I do, I once in a while take a role I think (correctly) is scum because I don't want to make it easy to guess my alignment as a replacement.

I jumped blind into this slot, for instance.

In post 1213, fferyllt wrote:And I got a lost-town-doesn't-know-what-to-do feel from them.

How the heck did you get this kind of feel from Rob's ISO.

In post 1214, Sakura Hana wrote:

In post 1213, fferyllt wrote:And I got a lost-town-doesn't-know-what-to-do feel from them.

How the heck did you get this kind of feel from Rob's ISO.

Because I did.

Post 480 in particular. That "let you all down" comment is something I've seen before a few times. I didn't even have to read around the ISO to know where that was coming from. His previous comment said it all.

I can dig this. Much prefer it to a Tier or pisskop wagon.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Sakura

In the hypothetical situation where bjc is scum for sure without a doubt with interactions akin to this game, there would have been, I'd imagine, a tipping point at which either bjc's buddy was attempting to consistently raise counterwagons (not just one, as consistently trying to push a single one could come across as scummy via the t.v. issue whereas finding things scummy for multiple people is more liable to be seen as active scumhunting and mere disagreement with the bjc wagon) or given up the ghost and gone for the bus. These wouldn't necessarily happen at the same time, but the simple fact that I haven't seen much evidence of people trying to subtly snipe the wagon's momentum or distract from the wagon itself or even a bus makes me inclined to feel that it's simply an issue of too many low hanging fruit for bjc to be lynched.

There's a line in my head that I can't really quantify wherein the willingness or unwillingness to lynch someone displayed by multiple parties leads me to lean a certain way on a read based on the style of the pressure applied. The pressure on bjc has a mixed feel: some of it comes across as genuine whereas other posts come across as forced. Some of these posts are from the same people, which leads me to feel that there's a mix of "town players who feel right but can't really support it with convincing cases" along with "scum that likes tagging along for the ride" and "townies tagging along for the sake of [information] or [survival]" - the issue is, of course, sorting which is which between the last two. Which I suck horribly at.

I'm not really following the sakura case. All I can get out of these interactions in terms of things you guys find scummy is "sakura wasn't pressuring ffery" - hardly particularly convincing. Which leads me to think you have more. Please explain.

Hayagatemi (fun fact, this is actually easy to say in Japanese): you say you prefer sakura over tier / pisskop, but what about emmy the big green dog?

In post 1216, fferyllt wrote:Post 480 in particular. That "let you all down" comment is something I've seen before a few times. I didn't even have to read around the ISO to know where that was coming from. His previous comment said it all.

I consider rob to be a complete and total null. He was a non-presence in the game. The letting you all down comment could just as easily be apologizing indirectly to his scumbuddy or apologizing to everyone for forcing yet another replacement as it could be a townie apologizing to the townspeople about his inability to perform.

If Rob had, at any point in time, actually been present in the game I might feel more inclined to believe you could get a tell from this due to having a better grip on his personality, but given that I have written more than his entire body of work in my last post alone I find it hard to believe that you feel you have a reliable personality read on him to make the judgment call on which of the three potential situations it is.

This is not to detract from the obv-townness of pkipps but I feel the need to ask how you can truly express confidence in your ability to grab personality tells to make alignment tells from a series of 4 word posts

In post 1212, Sakura Hana wrote:I'm just going to say I derped and forgot all about trying to sort ffery

This doesn't answer the rest of the post that this is supposed to be a reply to.

Explain how you differentiate between the koppi and bjc reads.

I may not read you as scum, but that doesn't mean I am going to let you get away with not replying to issues that people have with your posting.

Also, I don't really care about the shorthand you use for the name. It's not my real name so I wouldn't worry about feeling too "casual." I'm a pretty chill guy.

Nicknames that have been used in the past: frosty the snowman, frosty, obvtown, rf, ray, clearly town, frost, totally subliminal town read manipulation.

In post 1219, RayFrost wrote:In the hypothetical situation where bjc is scum for sure without a doubt with interactions akin to this game, there would have been, I'd imagine, a tipping point at which either bjc's buddy was attempting to consistently raise counterwagons (not just one, as consistently trying to push a single one could come across as scummy via the t.v. issue whereas finding things scummy for multiple people is more liable to be seen as active scumhunting and mere disagreement with the bjc wagon) or given up the ghost and gone for the bus. These wouldn't necessarily happen at the same time, but the simple fact that I haven't seen much evidence of people trying to subtly snipe the wagon's momentum or distract from the wagon itself or even a bus makes me inclined to feel that it's simply an issue of too many low hanging fruit for bjc to be lynched.

Hm, this is actually a valid point. The bjc wagon just kind of... stagnates at L-1 and nothing really happens for a while until ika eventually unvotes, and the pressure slowly shifts to rob and Tier. I see two options here:

1. Scum were already part of the rob wagon and thus letting go of that and trying to pursue a different counterwagon to bjc would just look odd and scummy (especially since rob was the only target that even got close to a counterwagon when bjc was floating around at L-1), so the scummate sticks to the easy target and hopes that that will go through and the heat on bjc will die down.
or
2. The scum felt that bjc was going to go down, and decided to try and bus for cred by joining the wagon.

I will admit that I'm no vote count expert though, so I could be off here. But I feel like you're noting the optimal scum play, not seeing the optimal scum play, and then stating that it couldn't possibly have gone in any other fashion because that would be suboptimal for the scum. If I were to guess, I would say that the scum were one of the voters committed to Rob (Nacho being the main candidate) and trying to push that as an alternate wagon, or after they saw the bjc wagon start to gain momentum, they hop onto it to try and pick up the towncred. (Abbott being the main candidate here).

I'll admit that I'm no vote count analysis expert though, so I will concede that you have a point. Out of curiosity, did you look at the case I put up regarding bjc? What did you think of it?

And honestly, Abbott's post kind of feels like a weak distancing/bussing attempt to me, but I'll get there.

In post 1219, RayFrost wrote:I'm not really following the sakura case. All I can get out of these interactions in terms of things you guys find scummy is "sakura wasn't pressuring ffery" - hardly particularly convincing. Which leads me to think you have more. Please explain.

Well, let's go back and begin with Abbott. He was most certainly coasting; look at his iso. There's a good chunk of fluff there, as well as some softball questions that make it look like Abbott is generating content, but then he never really does anything with it. A colossal chunk of his posts are just him sparring verbally with Nacho, and others are just weak couple-line statements that to me feel more like active-lurking than anything. Give me solid content from that slot where he isn't passively observing the game, taking shots at Nacho whenever the opportunity presents itself.

And then there's his vote on bcj:

In post 355, AbboTT wrote:Alright. Rob clearly isn't going to be pressured, so that vote is useless until we make a decision about lynching him.

I'm comfortable putting bjc at L-1. His self-proclaimed "go with the flow" attitude towards D1 doesn't mesh well with my ideal townie profile. I do like that he isn't actively over-defending himself, but I'm starting to read that as scum playing it cool.

All in all, I think he's a solid choice. We will learn a thing as a vote count analysis and some ISOing should yield good info on D2 regardless of his flip.

My mind could be changed for a Rob lynch if anybody is down for that.

bcj

This vote just feels off to me. He's attacking bcj for "going with the flow" during D1, but I don't really see abbott making huge waves either; he seems content to toss out some weak feelers and post reads every few pages without explaining them. And that last part is just bad; it feels like Abbott is saying "Oh, the rob lynch isn't gaining any momentum here, so I'll just cast this vote now, but by adding this caveat I will be perfectly capable of backing out of it whenever I feel like!" It kind of feels like Abbott is reluctantly bussing here because he thinks the wagon is going to go through, but will happily swing back to the easy lurker lynch if given the chance.

Then Sakura comes in. On a whole her posts aren't awful, but they are incredibly light too; a question here, a bit of pressure there, nothing incredibly substantive. And then she celebrates ffury coming in because she's able to read her, yet not only doesn't try to pressure her at any point or get a dialogue going, but only starts to do it when ffury calls out how strange it is. Then, after asking one pretty weak question, she doesn't go back to it and attack another angle or find something in ffury's response that's worth replying to. It just doesn't feel like genuine sorting. And then you have her weird hypocritical stance on bjc.

That's all that I've got right now; but then it's 3 AM so my mind might be getting a bit foggy at this point.

In post 1219, RayFrost wrote:Hayagatemi (fun fact, this is actually easy to say in Japanese): you say you prefer sakura over tier / pisskop, but what about emmy the big green dog?

Emmy is a stronger townread than either of those two, honestly. So I don't really want that lynch either. :\

I didn't check vote counts so much as using what I remember of people's postings. I just don't get the feeling that, at this point in time, bjc is as likely to be scum as the wagon would make it seem. He's low hanging fruit which has been bobbing in the wind on a weak branch all day. If he's scum, it's only a matter of time before he falls. And if he's town then naturally we don't want him to die.

I feel like, comparatively speaking, bjc, aside from pisskop, is the least likely of the people that have been up for lynch in the recent posts to actually be scum. There's simply not enough oomph to anything on him, and there's a limit to how willing I am to let my initial suspicions on bjc tint my view of him. I'd rather give him more time to assert presence in the game, whereas there are other people that I feel are more explicitly likely to be scum. Lynch scum, leave bjc alive to give a bit more time for my read to solidify, and then move on from there.

I can see the case for sakura to an extent, and I'm willing to vote to avoid a no lynch, but I'd still heavily prefer either tiershift or dogem. I'd go into a full case but lately I've been a bit too tired to really do the reading and linking and coding and etc. I think I might have the energy either tomorrow or on Saturday (tho I have a date Saturday night).