Mafiascum.net

In post 1198, SnarkySnowman wrote:It may take a few more games and a few more flips to get to that.

What and/or who is this referring to?

TTH, 1197

Oh, I see. I didn't know what you were trying to say there but now I understand

Feels like everyone is gone. Ah well, happy fathers day everyone that applies to!

Just waiting until Ranger is back. Still comfortable lynching there.

Also, ow Magna, my feelings. :'(

Back from V/LA. At this point I'm getting tired of waiting for action. I have yet to see a reason why I should be rethinking my read on Ranger. And there have been now at least pushes for two alternate wagons in Lillith and Snarky.

Clumsy you need to actually do something other than sit with no vote on anyone waiting for others to do something themselves.

In post 1206, MagnaofIllusion wrote:And there have been now at least pushes for two alternate wagons in Lillith and Snarky.

Yes, that's how things usually go. What's your point?

In post 1207, TellTaleHeart wrote:Yes, that's how things usually go. What's your point?

Oh I think the point is entirely clear. If Ranger was Town it would not be this hard to get the lynch actually completed on her. And not one but two counter-wagons have formed as alternates to Ranger. Both of which you were happy to fuel I notice.

In post 1206, MagnaofIllusion wrote:Back from V/LA. At this point I'm getting tired of waiting for action. I have yet to see a reason why I should be rethinking my read on Ranger. And there have been now at least pushes for two alternate wagons in Lillith and Snarky.

Clumsy you need to actually do something other than sit with no vote on anyone waiting for others to do something themselves.

Well my vote would be going on Ranger, which would be a hammer. So...

We have time, and I'm waiting for an answer from Ranger. What would you like me to do, go ahead and hammer? If Ranger IS town (Which I highly disvelieve) I want this information and a chance to get the right lynch. I'm totally for Ranger and TTH team though, and it will take a lot to change my mind here.

Although we only have 3 days left
Much less than I thought. Ranger, you better get in here soon if you're town.

Clumsy, you believe they killed Kuroi and TTH fakeclaimed vig as a gambit?

In post 1211, lilith2013 wrote:Clumsy, you believe they killed Kuroi and TTH fakeclaimed vig as a gambit?

That is definitely a possibility actually. Especially with only one NK

I think so. Look at how hard Ranger was looking for the vig. Outright calls out for a vig to claim, when there's no real indication for it to have been a vig kill. There was no second kill. And the way TTH went about announcing it felt faked. The association feels right too. Could very well not be what happened, but I feel like it's a decent possibility. Second choice after TTH is Snarky though.

In post 1078, Ranger wrote:Unless a vig comes forth and claims the Kuroi kill, I'm gonna have to assume that it was scum.

In that case, I actually

wouldn't

see SnarkySnowman as scum: it'd quite literally be suicide to kill his counterclaim, and Kuroi was one vote short of being

lynched

yesterday, and would have been lynched today.

Instead,
VOTE: lilith.
This is what I want to do.

In post 1107, Ranger wrote:

TellTaleHeart wrote:I vigged Kuroi last night. Sorry.

I don't think that's something to be sorry about. Be it the shooting or the claiming. I'd have done the same in your shoes, and if Kuroi's honest, he probably would say he'd have shot himself, too. There were two gladiator claims. SnarkySnowman's power was confirmed. His claim was more sketchy. We were going to lynch one of them today, and very easily may have lynched the other the day after, for better or for worse.

As for the claiming...that tells us, short of scum having legitimately shot Kuroi (in which case...lol?),

1. TellTaleHeart is confirmed town.
2. We have a town role, be it offensively or defensively, that stopped a kill.
3. In the case of {doctor, Jailkeeper, roleblocker}, I'd claim your target.
4. Doctor? If it's not TellTaleHeart, that player would be the scum's nightkill and therefore confirmed town. (If it was, stay silent.)
5. Roleblocker? Congratulations, you blocked scum. Out it for a free scum lynch.
6. Jailkeeper? Claim so we can use judgement on whether it was a block or kill.
7. If the stopped kill was not caused by one of the above three, stay silent.

In post 1103, TellTaleHeart wrote:~~@_@~~

I've been typing out a post to Clumsy about how his theory is based on a bogus assumption.
I was trying to come up with a cute breadcrumb to Ranger's mention of a vig.
But I feel like any attempt for me to slow dance this would probably lead to more confusion than clarity.
So I'll just come out and say it.

I vigged Kuroi last night. Sorry.

I don't like this progression. Ranger opens with the vig thing that sounds like it's straight up asking a partner to claim the vig shot, TTH's post feels fake, and I don't think they've even attacked each other on this earth at all. I don't think they've looked into each other being scum at all. The ONLY negative post between the two is that Ranger thinks TTH's play on this earth "Isn't as strong" as on Earth-1. TTH then floats from middle to near top on the readlists. Hell, TTH's ISO search for "Ranger" literally has 1 hit, and that's TTH talking against Ranger's lynch. I feel this is the strongest association in this game.

Also, my lynch order would be Ranger>TTH>Snarky>Lillith. I'd have to rethink if Ranger flipped town though.

3 days to deadline

Clumsy wrote:Then walk me through your thought process from one to the other please.

We start Earth-2 with this:

{Clumsy}
{Kuroi}
{TellTaleHeart, lilith, Javajoe}
{SnarkySnowman}
{MagnaofIllusion}

I would have to check to see what the basis for Magna being so low and you being so high was, but I liked Kuroi's entrance. SnarkySnowman felt about the same on this Earth as last Earth, and at the time, I didn't have him as a townread (he was a candidate for being scum). The others were null.

I then came to the conclusion, "One of Magna/lilith is scum in this Earth, but not the other", creating this:

{Clumsy}
{Kuroi, Javajoe}
{TellTaleHeart, lilith}
{SnarkySnowman}
{MagnaofIllusion}
But if Magna flips town, place lilith in his spot instead.

Javajoe's posting began to look town, so he moved up. I reassessed, and looking at the posts, lilith felt the same between worlds whereas MagnaofIllusion felt VASTLY different. That produced this:

{Clumsy}
{Kuroi, Javajoe}
{TellTaleHeart, MagnaofIllusion}
{SnarkySnowman}
{lilith}

Javajoe continued to town it up, so we got this:

{Clumsy, Kuroi, Javajoe}
{TellTaleHeart}
{MagnaofIllusion}
{SnarkySnowman}
{lilith}

This was, unchanged, my reads until SnarkySnowman claimed gladiator. Actually, a little bit after that. Then, we got Kuroi's scummy counterclaim, which was filled with little inconsistencies here and there and felt off. He got to L-1, and was shot during the night in spite of that. That gets us to today. My stance on the gladiators becomes clear: regardless of whether SnarkySnowman is town or scum, there would be at least one scum on Kuroi's wagon. This is that wagon:

KuroiXHF (4) - SnarkySnowman, Clumsy, TellTaleHeart, lilith2013

{SnarkySnowman, Clumsy, lilith}. By my setup spec, I thought SnarkySnowman unlikely to be scum. My scumread on lilith continued. MagnaofIllusion continues to play to his town game on this Earth (I'll give more links later, but basically, he is hardcore scum on Earth-1 and pretty town on this Earth), so when TellTaleHeart claimed vig, you got a list which would look something like:
{TellTaleHeart}
{MagnaofIllusion, Javajoe}
{SnarkySnowman}
{Clumsy}
{lilith}

The only read that falls there is you, and the reason for that is simple: your hard-defense of lilith, and hard-push of players I think are mislynches. You're discrediting players like me and TellTaleHeart, who happen to both be pushing lilith, in favor of me (who I know to be town) and SnarkySnowman, who I believe to be town. This has been consistent across all your recent posting. As early as 922, this trend starts, but it exists in all posts since then. Wanting to know the basis for my reads in 956. 971 looks like it's encouraging a Ranger-Magna fight. (Which, on this Earth, I have no interest in. See you on Earth-1 for that though.) lilith sits in the middle for 989, where I might note you had me as your strongest townread. (So, I can just as easily ask the same of you: )

Your posting around the gladiators was bad, with things like 1055/1057/1067/1069. 1076 is a very classical scum reaction to a flip overnight and felt forced. You posted a case in 1077/1082/1088 that relies on factors entirely out of the game. (Namely, accusing me of intentionally lurking past deadline, when the time I come on is an , not an exact science.) When you vote SnarkySnowman in 1084, it's like you know he will flip town. 1091 is buddying the players you see as likely to support you. You recognize in 1105 the unlikelihood of TellTaleHeart faking her vig, yet when she later supports me, she's suddenly suspicious for it, and your read degenerates on players appropriately. As Javajoe helps you, you townread him, but as he hinders you, you don't. As TellTaleHeart hinders you, your stance on her gets worse and worse and worse. This is particularly evident in 1189.

We also get 1215, where you have it in an absolutely backwards order.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:The main reason why I think Ranger's "Where is Earth 1 thread" is scum motived.

One, not Earth1. Two, not what I said. Three, that game a faked townslip and I very much intentionally made that move for the town credit, whereas Four, here I tried to brush it off because . That was information I wanted public. Whereas in the other game, that WAS information I wanted public. Difference between a townslip and a "townslip". Townslips are things I don't want. "townslips" are things I do. I immediately tried to bury the incident. I immediately tried to cover it up. I immediately tried to move on, to brush it off, to make it not a big deal. This, because I was trying to hide the townslip.
In contrast, in the linked game, I argued in favor of the townslip. I said, "the townslip means I'm town". When I was called out on the legitimacy of it, I defended the townslip. I defended it, pointed to it, reasoned why it was a townslip, I for it being a townslip. My play here has been the polar opposite of that. I've been avoiding it. I've not brought it up. YOU have. YOU have been the one, consistently, bringing up the point, which I would just. rather. be. done. with.

Javajoe wrote:I am for a mass claim, but why not propose your theory anyways since it appears a mass claim is out of the question?

Because my theory becomes absolutely worthless if I post it prior to massclaim, since the whole basis of the theory relies on one simple aspect of role distribution.

Ranger wrote:why did your read change?

^This is a really important question, by the way.
Clumsy called me out, for a change in reads between 960 to 1138.
That's 13 real-life days, a full game day, Kuroi's flip, SnarkySnowman's gladiate, Javajoe's claim, and 7 pages between the two.

...Yet Clumsy, in 993, has me as his top-townread. This lasts until 1091 as the first mention of a Ranger lynch.
That's 7 days (exactly one week), half a game day, Kuroi's flip, and SnarkySnowman's gladiate between the two.

So, Clumsy.

You got some 'splainin' to do.

In post 1209, Clumsy wrote:We have time, and I'm waiting for an answer from Ranger. What would you like me to do, go ahead and hammer? If Ranger IS town (Which I highly disvelieve) I want this information and a chance to get the right lynch. I'm totally for Ranger and TTH team though, and it will take a lot to change my mind here.

I want you to do something. Frankly you’ve been sitting in this pattern of “Well, I’ve got this opinion that I am pretty sure of (Ranger as scum) but I’m going to wait on Ranger to comment some more” for basically at least a week which is doing the game-state no favors.

If you believe Ranger is likely scum what do you expect from her that will change your mind?

In post 1217, Ranger wrote:One, not Earth1. Two, not what I said. Three, that game was a faked townslip and I very much intentionally made that move for the town credit, whereas Four, here I tried to brush it off because I didn't want to out that I was a VT. That was not information I wanted public. Whereas in the other game, that WAS information I wanted public. Difference between a townslip and a "townslip". Townslips are things I don't want. "townslips" are things I do. I immediately tried to bury the incident. I immediately tried to cover it up. I immediately tried to move on, to brush it off, to make it not a big deal. This, because I was trying to hide the townslip.
In contrast, in the linked game, I argued in favor of the townslip. I said, "the townslip means I'm town". When I was called out on the legitimacy of it, I defended the townslip. I defended it, pointed to it, reasoned why it was a townslip, I argued for it being a townslip. My play here has been the polar opposite of that. I've been avoiding it. I've not brought it up. YOU have. YOU have been the one, consistently, bringing up the point, which I would just. rather. be. done. with.

This is crap. You weren’t trying to hide a VT slip. You were presenting that you were uniformed (which is exactly what you did in that game). The difference is I had already seen that game and argued with you (correctly I might add since it clearly didn’t make you Town as you were obv-scum) about it. By the time you tried it here I was wise to your track record. We’ve been down this road before. I’ve pointed out other “oops” moments from you as scum in the Open game. You always have some large paragraph saying how you don’t do it for this reason or that reason or how it is completely different blah blah blah.

I’ve caught you. I’ve caught you before doing making the same move as scum. Like RC your ego may make you think you are too good to be caught by a player of ‘my level of skill’. But that is irrelevant.

Ranger, is your buddy tth?

Clumsy has been pretty clearly town lately

Magna, what I'm doing actually is good for town. We don't need to be Hasty about things. I'm asking for a full explanation like this, which thank you Ranger, this was great, in the event that Ranger flips town. We will have her full read list and observations for when we come back to this earth. Based on this, if Ranger does flip town, I will be looking at Lilith. Of course, it also looks bad on me. If she flips scum, we can just ignore this. I don't think this is hurting anything at all. I get that this game is taking a while, but I don't see how this is a bad thing.

In post 1217, Ranger wrote:

Clumsy wrote:Then walk me through your thought process from one to the other please.

We start Earth-2 with this:

{Clumsy}
{Kuroi}
{TellTaleHeart, lilith, Javajoe}
{SnarkySnowman}
{MagnaofIllusion}

I would have to check to see what the basis for Magna being so low and you being so high was, but I liked Kuroi's entrance. SnarkySnowman felt about the same on this Earth as last Earth, and at the time, I didn't have him as a townread (he was a candidate for being scum). The others were null.

I then came to the conclusion, "One of Magna/lilith is scum in this Earth, but not the other", creating this:

{Clumsy}
{Kuroi, Javajoe}
{TellTaleHeart, lilith}
{SnarkySnowman}
{MagnaofIllusion}
But if Magna flips town, place lilith in his spot instead.

Javajoe's posting began to look town, so he moved up. I reassessed, and looking at the posts, lilith felt the same between worlds whereas MagnaofIllusion felt VASTLY different. That produced this:

{Clumsy}
{Kuroi, Javajoe}
{TellTaleHeart, MagnaofIllusion}
{SnarkySnowman}
{lilith}

Javajoe continued to town it up, so we got this:

{Clumsy, Kuroi, Javajoe}
{TellTaleHeart}
{MagnaofIllusion}
{SnarkySnowman}
{lilith}

This was, unchanged, my reads until SnarkySnowman claimed gladiator. Actually, a little bit after that. Then, we got Kuroi's scummy counterclaim, which was filled with little inconsistencies here and there and felt off. He got to L-1, and was shot during the night in spite of that. That gets us to today. My stance on the gladiators becomes clear: regardless of whether SnarkySnowman is town or scum, there would be at least one scum on Kuroi's wagon. This is that wagon:

KuroiXHF (4) - SnarkySnowman, Clumsy, TellTaleHeart, lilith2013

{SnarkySnowman, Clumsy, lilith}. By my setup spec, I thought SnarkySnowman unlikely to be scum. My scumread on lilith continued. MagnaofIllusion continues to play to his town game on this Earth (I'll give more links later, but basically, he is hardcore scum on Earth-1 and pretty town on this Earth), so when TellTaleHeart claimed vig, you got a list which would look something like:
{TellTaleHeart}
{MagnaofIllusion, Javajoe}
{SnarkySnowman}
{Clumsy}
{lilith}

The only read that falls there is you, and the reason for that is simple: your hard-defense of lilith, and hard-push of players I think are mislynches. You're discrediting players like me and TellTaleHeart, who happen to both be pushing lilith, in favor of me (who I know to be town) and SnarkySnowman, who I believe to be town. This has been consistent across all your recent posting. As early as 922, this trend starts, but it exists in all posts since then. Wanting to know the basis for my reads in 956. 971 looks like it's encouraging a Ranger-Magna fight. (Which, on this Earth, I have no interest in. See you on Earth-1 for that though.) lilith sits in the middle for 989, where I might note you had me as your strongest townread. (So, I can just as easily ask the same of you:

why did

your

read change?

)

Your posting around the gladiators was bad, with things like 1055/1057/1067/1069. 1076 is a very classical scum reaction to a flip overnight and felt forced. You posted a case in 1077/1082/1088 that relies on factors entirely out of the game. (Namely, accusing me of intentionally lurking past deadline, when the time I come on is an

approximation

, not an exact science.) When you vote SnarkySnowman in 1084, it's like you know he will flip town. 1091 is buddying the players you see as likely to support you. You recognize in 1105 the unlikelihood of TellTaleHeart faking her vig, yet when she later supports me, she's suddenly suspicious for it, and your read degenerates on players appropriately. As Javajoe helps you, you townread him, but as he hinders you, you don't. As TellTaleHeart hinders you, your stance on her gets worse and worse and worse. This is particularly evident in 1189.

We also get 1215, where you have it in an absolutely backwards order.

MagnaofIllusion wrote:The main reason why I think Ranger's "Where is Earth 1 thread" is scum motived.

One, not Earth1. Two, not what I said. Three, that game

was

a faked townslip and I very much intentionally made that move for the town credit, whereas Four, here I tried to brush it off because

I didn't want to out that I was a VT

. That was

not

information I wanted public. Whereas in the other game, that WAS information I wanted public. Difference between a townslip and a "townslip". Townslips are things I don't want. "townslips" are things I do. I immediately tried to bury the incident. I immediately tried to cover it up. I immediately tried to move on, to brush it off, to make it not a big deal. This, because I was trying to hide the townslip.
In contrast, in the linked game, I argued in favor of the townslip. I said, "the townslip means I'm town". When I was called out on the legitimacy of it, I defended the townslip. I defended it, pointed to it, reasoned why it was a townslip, I

argued

for it being a townslip. My play here has been the polar opposite of that. I've been avoiding it. I've not brought it up. YOU have. YOU have been the one, consistently, bringing up the point, which I would just. rather. be. done. with.

Javajoe wrote:I am for a mass claim, but why not propose your theory anyways since it appears a mass claim is out of the question?

Because my theory becomes absolutely worthless if I post it prior to massclaim, since the whole basis of the theory relies on one simple aspect of role distribution.

In post 1218, Ranger wrote: So, Clumsy.

You got some 'splainin' to do.

This is adorable. Mostly because I heard it in that voice. But anyway.


Alright, a few things. Your set-up speculation makes you think that a second gladiator is town? I'm less experienced, but I see that going the other way. But in either case, is this your whole reason for finding Snarky to be town? It looks like you're just dismissing him out for this sole reason. What do you think of his recent posts?

Yes, I was wanting a Ranger-Magna interaction at the time. The way you guys were talking, I was getting a strong feeling that one of you was scum. Guess which one I settled on?

"You recognize in 1105 the unlikelihood of TellTaleHeart faking her vig" I was actually suspicious of it (or any vig claim) the minute you brought it up immediately after day started. I had it under a lot of suspicion, as evidenced by 4 posts later in 1109, where I straight out ask you about it. So no, not suddenly suspicious of it.

Also, the whole "He said he was surprised that Kuroi flipped town, talking about the night kill, that's a scum tell!" is incredibly lazy. You know I'm not that terribly new. I think EVERYONE knows about that "tell". So... no.

As for why my reads changed on you Ranger, it started with the no vote deadline thing. Others have said that I don't have a case here at all, but I'm still fairly convinced by what I found. I had written you off as town, but looking at your posts in a different light, I'm starting to see scum. Magna's posts against you also helped. I found what I think to be strong associative ties with you and TTH. The claiming thing. Outright calling for a vig claim after Kuroi was shot. I might be falling prey to conf biasing because I want all my time spent looking into your posting habits over the past 100 pages and 3 months of posts to mean something. But I firmly believe that you are scum here. If not, see you on Earth-One, and I'll probably sheep your Lilith vote.

Another thing I've noticed when I went back to read. Snarky is flip flopping on votes EVERYWHERE. Could be evolution of votes, could be just trying to ride the waves as scum. Something to remember maybe.

I think I will hammer Ranger tonight, that big post was really helpful in the event that she flips town. Where do you guys think we should move to after her if she's scum? What about if she's town? We're going to (probably) have a voice gone after tonight, so I'd like reads to be known.

For me:

Ranger Scum-flips:
TTH>Snarky>Joe (I'm more sure on the first two)

Ranger Town-flips:
Lillith>Snarky>Magna

Strong strong strong town: Clumsy
Strong town: Magna
Meh: Joe/Snarky
Kinda scummy: TTH
Scumscumscumscum: Ranger