The answer is both yes, and no.
I wrote an article explaining half of the concept, and never finished my article explaining the other half.
The article I wrote explaining one half of this is
Possibilities versus Probabilities.
In there, I basically explain how always, I am at war with myself.
At every single second.
I am imagining every single possible possibility.
You may think that's not possible; there's a ton of possibilities. With 4/10 players as scum, there are...how many unique combos? Is it as simple as 400? But no matter what the exact number, there's a lot.
So I couldn't possibly calculate them all, every second, right?
Except I do, and I do it even when not at the keyboard.
At work.
When eating.
When taking a shower.
At all times I think of the game, I am considering every single possible outcome.
For instance, at the most extreme: "What if every single one of my townreads were in fact the scumteam?"
I run through these, every second.
With every piece of new information, I run through them again. And again. And again.
Paranoia is crippling.
Doubt is overwhelming.
I never know what my reads are.
I can never truly be certain of them, because every time I feel good, suddenly, a new thought crops up and makes me think I could be wrong again.
Thus, the concept of probabilities.
I had to install a filter to function in games. Even if the correct combination is deemed a possibility rather than probability and thus tossed out, it was inherently a necessary move for me to be able to be of
any
use in a game. I weigh the scenarios, and put active thought into sorting them, off of what I know.
Some become less likely than others; others become more likely.
And while I can rarely if ever narrow in on the exact correct one, I can get closer to the correct one. Just by sifting through with the filter, discarding the ones which look unlikely and violate occam's razor, and accepting the ones which are simpler, make more sense, fit the facts better, and overall just "feel" like they're the case.
That is the balance of possibilities, and probabilities; the probabilities are the town player's friend, and the possibilities are the enemy.
But there's a second half to that, the unpublished result of this philosophy.
I have to have a way to both advance the gamestate, and yet be able to step back and reevaluate when necessary.
This is what I refer to as the "Theory of Pushing", in my notes, with the basic philosophy of...
"I need to push, and push HARD".
I push the probabilities I see, and push them hard. I keep pushing them, and pushing them--until I am no longer certain they are probabilities, until I think that instead of a probability, they are just a possibility. (Okay, small break from my ramble for a game note.)
I did everything what I could to not do this on a game of yours, but if I keep playing it would be irresponsible for the sake of the game and for my health. See ya!
